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BEATING THE ODDS:
UNLOCKING THE FUTURE OF ATLANTIC COUNTY
Dyana Tanasy Princeton University Robert Checchio Rutgers University January 30, 2006
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1 Objective
In this report, we examine the relative success of Atlantic City’s economic growth
in terms of gaming and non-gaming revenues compared to another major gaming location
in the United States. After examining the similarities and differences between the two
locations, we present a strategy for growing Atlantic County’s economy to its fullest
potential. We also address key transportation issues as part of the solution.
2 Atlantic City Background1
Long before Atlantic City was founded, the island where it would be developed,
thick with woods and lined with dunes, was the summer home of the Lenni Lenape
Indians, an Algonquian-speaking people. These original summer residents named the
island Absegami, meaning "little water", a term for the bay denoting that the opposite
shore was in sight. Over time the name was transformed into the present-day Absecon
Island. Early colonial settlers in South Jersey largely ignored the island because it could
only be reached by boat. While the exact date of the first permanent settlement has never
been determined, it is generally agreed that Jeremiah Leeds was the first to build and
occupy a year-round residence on the island by 1800.
By 1850, the potential attraction of the island's cool breezes and beaches was
recognized and the idea for developing a resort was first promoted by Dr. Jonathan
Pitney, a local physician. With transportation the key to development, Dr. Pitney joined
with a group of businessmen to secure a railroad charter in 1852. Two years later,
construction of the Camden-Atlantic rail line was completed at a cost of a little over $1.2
million. A civil engineer from Philadelphia, Richard Osbourne, designed the city layout
and proposed the name Atlantic City.
In March of 1854, the city was incorporated and eighteen voters elected the first
mayor. On July 1, 1854, the first public train left Camden for Atlantic City, arriving two
and a half hours later, an arrival that signaled the opening chapter in the resort's rich and
colorful history. 1 This material is taken from the Atlantic City Free Public Library.
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Atlantic City's proximity to major population centers, coupled with convenient,
inexpensive train access, allowed thousands to flee the hot cities and enjoy summer
pleasures at the cool seashore. The city grew rapidly and offered lodging, dining,
entertainment and amusements for all ages, tastes and incomes. Attractions like the
Boardwalk, amusement piers, floor shows and beauty pageants drew throngs of visitors,
including many famous figures over the years.
From the 1880s to 1940s, Atlantic City was a major vacation resort. In the 1920s,
it was considered the premier tryout town for theatrical productions headed for Broadway
and beyond. Beginning in the 1930s and over the next three decades, Kentucky Avenue
was renown for its nightlife, with Club Harlem and other venues attracting the best talent
and biggest stars from the world of jazz. During World War II, the city offered much
more than entertainment distractions, serving as a training site for military recruits and a
recovery and rehabilitation center for wounded soldiers.
In the 1950s, as air travel to vacation spots in Florida and the Caribbean became
more widely available, Atlantic City's popularity as a resort destination began to decline.
By the 1960s, the city was beset with the economic and social problems common to many
urban centers at the time. With the health of its economy entirely dependent on tourists
who were now shunning the decaying resort, the city reached its nadir.
2.1 The Introduction of Gambling
In 1976, the "Atlantic City Gamble" was launched when New Jersey voters
approved a referendum legalizing gambling, specifically in Atlantic City but not
elsewhere in the state. The following is taken from the State of New Jersey Gambling
Study Commission, 1973:
The work of this Commission was undertaken against a background of developing interest, both in this State and nationwide, in the potential benefits of legalized gambling. The reasons for this interest appear to be connected with certain emerging social and political trends, and (as typically expressed by proponents) are essentially threefold:
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1. In an era of fiscal stringency, legalized gambling holds forth a promise of providing substantial revenues through as nearly a "painless" method as can be conceived.
2. In an era increasingly vexed by problems of crime and corruption, legalization of gambling is put forward as a means of (a) undercutting organized crime by depriving it of the revenues which it now derives from illegal gambling, most of which it controls; (b) freeing law-enforcement manpower and resources for use against both the "organized crime" and the violent "street crime" which alarm the citizenry and undermine social order, and (c) eliminating opportunities and temptations for the corruption of various public officials whose protection or connivance is necessary to the survival of most illegal gambling operations.
3. In an era when assertion of personal liberty against state control has been ever more vociferously expressed, the legalization of gambling would remove restrictions on personal action which many people resent as puritanical, hypocritical, repressive and archaic.
State of New Jersey Gambling Study Commission, 1973
3 Gaming Industry Results
While there were many critics questioning the wisdom of pursuing legalized
gambling as a tool of urban development, many others were convinced casinos would
provide the resources needed to rebuild the city and its tourist trade. When the first
casino, Resorts International, opened in 1978, no one predicted the rapid growth of the
gaming industry in Atlantic City or the tremendous impact it would have on the city, the
region and the state. By 1988, a dozen casinos were open and the number of annual
visitors had grown from 700,000 in 1978, to over 33 million. By the year 2000, the city's
tax base had skyrocketed from $316 million in 1976 to over $6.7 billion. The positive
impact on Atlantic City residents can be seen in revitalized neighborhoods, new housing
projects and public service facilities and economic, social and cultural programs.
3.1 Revenue
It may be hard to believe, but Atlantic City’s annual gaming revenues consistently rival
those of Las Vegas, and, before the openings of Paris, The Venetian and Mandalay Bay
in 1999, Atlantic City actually outperformed Vegas. For the first time, Atlantic City’s 12
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casinos have pulled in over $5 billion in gaming revenue in 2005. They now share that
elite bracket with Las Vegas, where casinos on the strip earned $5.34 billion in total
gaming revenue from its 43 casinos in 2004. Assuming a 10% increase in 2005, gaming
revenue on the Strip is estimated at $5.9 billion.2
FIGURE 1: Gaming Revenue (1990-2005)
However, while the gaming revenue may be very close between the Vegas Strip
and Atlantic City, the revenue from non-gaming entities separates the two cities. The
Strip pulls in almost $4 billion annually in non-gaming revenue compared to Atlantic
City’s $400 million. Non-gaming revenue includes hotels, shopping, dining and
entertainment. In recent years, the largest Strip casinos have reported a 50-50 split
between their gaming and non-gaming sources of revenue.
The Borgata Casino Hotel & Spa continued to dominate, posting $704.4 million
in revenues for the year, up 10.7 percent from the year before. But it was Tropicana
Casino and Resort that saw the largest growth. Its revenues surged 21.4 percent to $441.9
million for the year, which analysts said was undoubtedly tied to its $280 million hotel,
retail and entertainment complex, The Quarter. 2 Source: Atlantic City Free Public Library
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FIGURE 2: Gaming and Non-Gaming Revenue
Those properties with less to offer in terms of non-gaming activities had a tougher
year. Sands Casino Hotel, the city's smallest gaming hall, saw its revenues drop 7.1
percent to $176.6 million. And the Atlantic City Hilton also saw its revenues drop 2
percent to $289.4 million, caused by an 11.4 percent drop in table game revenue.
3.2 Visitor Demographics
According to the Nevada State Gaming Commission, the average Las Vegas
casino patron’s spending habits have not changed much, growing by about 1% annually
over the past 10 years. However, with an increase in non-gaming activities, airport
capacity, and a growing number of hotel rooms, Las Vegas has managed to increase the
total number of visitors by about 10% annually over the same period.
Atlantic City, on the other hand, has not experienced much growth in visitation,
but makes up for it with increases in average revenue per visitor, about 5% annually over
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the past 10 years. Of course, this growth applies solely to the city’s gaming revenue,
while the growth in Vegas applies to the non-gaming revenue as well.
According to a survey by Harrah’s Entertainment Inc., casino players have higher
levels of education, higher incomes and are more likely to hold white-collar jobs,
compared to the average American. However, this comparison points to casino players in
“destination playing” which often requires travel and overnight stays.
There is a sense that Atlantic City is not attracting this type of patron (i.e. the kind
who fly to Las Vegas for a week of gambling, dining and shopping). In fact, Atlantic
City's businesses have complained about "shoobies," a derogatory reference to day-
trippers that dates back to an era when they carried their lunches in shoeboxes.
FIGURE 3: Types of Visitor Trips
While Las Vegas and Atlantic City report a similar number of annual visitors, the
average Atlantic City visitor stays for about eight hours, while the average Las Vegas
visitor stays about four days. This is not a totally fair comparison, as Las Vegas’s
location in the Nevada desert, far from any major metropolitan area, does not make it
particularly appealing to day-trippers. On the other hand, Atlantic City’s location at the
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Jersey shore does not preclude overnight stays. In fact, one would think that a beach
town would be more attractive to overnighters during the summer months. It is evident
through the under-utilization of the Atlantic City airport, as well as the overwhelming
percentage of visitor who arrive by car, that this is not the case.
FIGURE 4: Trips by Type
Furthermore, this problem is highlighted in Atlantic City’s convention center --
despite being the second largest on the East Coast (after the Jacob Javits Center in New
York), the center generates surprisingly little business.
In Nevada, we see the opposite trend. McCarran International Airport is now the
seventh busiest in the nation, transporting over half of the 35 million annual visitors to
Las Vegas. In fact, highway traffic has been trending down, as the percentage of flown-
in visitors rises. According to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Center, convention
and meeting travelers accounted for approximately 14% of Las Vegas visitors in 2004.
However, it is not simply a lack of overnight visitors that is Atlantic City the city
back. At peak times, there is a lack of available hotel rooms. Atlantic City offers about
15,000 hotel rooms, although casino expansion projects will add another 3,000 hotel
rooms by 2008. By comparison, Las Vegas has about 125,000 rooms.
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FIGURE 5: Total Hotel Rooms
We also see in the Room Occupancy data an indication that there is a shortage of
hotel rooms in Atlantic City. The very high room occupancy rate in Atlantic City (94%)
indicates the potential for unmet demand.
FIGURE 6: Room Occupancy Rates
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4 Past and Planned Improvements and Expansions
These problems with Atlantic City are not a surprise. A long anticipated second
wave of development is now underway. The prospect of increased competition in the
gaming market as well as the success of the five-year-old Atlantic City Convention
Center have been catalysts for the development of new projects. In recent years, the city
has attempted, with limited success, to use Las Vegas as a model to transform itself into a
lucrative overnight destination. The Borgata, which opened in 2003, was the first casino
to be built in Atlantic City since 1990. Several casinos have embarked on major
expansions of their hotel and retail space, and a public-private partnership is building a
$60 million retail and entertainment complex, The Walk, in the center of the city.
In all, over $1.8 billion in new investments are planned or underway, and, for the
first time since casinos opened here, most of the new projects are devoted to broadening
the appeal of the city beyond gambling. Offering visitors a wide range of attractions is
considered the key to a successful future, a formula that surely proved itself in the past
when Atlantic City claimed the title "Queen of Resorts". Projects such as Showboat's
House of Blues music club, Tropicana Casino and Resort's sprawling retail and
entertainment complex, named ‘The Quarter,’ and the upscale Pier at Caesars shopping
center opening this year are helping Atlantic City to diversify.
4.1 Economic Impact
All of these recent developments have worked well for Atlantic City. The
Tropicana experienced its largest year-on-year gains since the opening of The Quarter,
and the Borgata’s numbers were even more impressive, topping all competitors and
leading the way with non-gaming revenue accounting for about 20%. Moreover, in
2004, Travelocity listed Atlantic City as a top action beach, and the June 2004 issue of
Conde Nast Traveler promoted the city’s new image. Showboat, Caesars and Bally's
casinos also are sprucing up their aging boardwalk entrances, and Casino Commission
officials say at least two casinos (Resorts and Showboat) are considering adding hotel
towers. In addition, the Casino Reinvestment Development Authority recently approved
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of more than $100 million to revitalize the boardwalk – the one thing with which Vegas
would have a hard time competing.
Even with these efforts, however, job growth in Atlantic City remains mostly flat.
In comparison, job growth in Clark County has grown steadily over the past decades.
EMPLOYMENT LEVELS
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Las Vegas MSA
Atlantic City MSA
FIGURE 7: Employment Levels in Atlantic City and Las Vegas MSAs
To see why this is happening even as gaming revenues in Atlantic City largely
match those in Las Vegas, we re-examine the source of revenues and the nature of
visitors to the two locations. Remember that although gaming revenues in Atlantic City
and Las Vegas are comparable, the non-gaming revenue in Las Vegas greatly exceeds
that of Atlantic City. In fact, we see that in Las Vegas derives more revenue from non-
gaming sources than it does from gaming sources. This discrepancy is attributable to the
types of visitors that are attracted to each location. While visitors to Las Vegas stay at
least overnight, most visitors to Atlantic City apparently only stay long enough to
gamble, and then return home. Las Vegas benefits from the overnight visitors by
getting more revenue from lodging, restaurant, and retail sales.
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5 Competition Ahead
Given Atlantic City’s infrastructure and environmental constraints, including the
lack of a more modern airport, poor city environment, and the absence of non-gaming
attractions, Atlantic City is far from being revitalized as a major tourist resort. Moreover,
as neighboring states legalize gambling, Atlantic City’s future will become even more
uncertain.
Atlantic City casinos are a maze of slot machines, and the machines’ share of the
gaming revenue has been increasing, in both Atlantic City and Las Vegas. This growth
points to the attractiveness of gaming where the player determines his own speed, has
little or no interaction with casino employees or other players, and only needs to follow
simple rules of play. Since these qualities do not rely on the quality of customer service,
or the glitziness of the surroundings, casinos in other states could easily steal players
away from Atlantic City.
FIGURE 8: Gaming Revenue Breakdown (2005)
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Atlantic City casinos already face increasing competition from slot machines in
New York racetracks, and officials in Maryland and Pennsylvania and pushing to legalize
slots there as well, where the proximity to Atlantic City is sure to siphon off some of the
Jersey crowd. Moreover, Delaware and West Virginia now have casinos; the two giant
Indian casinos in Connecticut are attracting New Yorkers; and Gov. Pataki wants to open
three Indian resort casinos in the Catskills, 30 miles closer to the heart of Manhattan than
Atlantic City, which is 130 miles away.
According to an analysis by Harrah's 2003 Profile of the American Casino
Gambler, more of the metropolitan Washington's 700,000 casino gamblers prefer
Delaware or West Virginia casinos to Atlantic City. Baltimore and Philadelphia are
sending a growing share of its gamblers somewhere else. And even though the New York
metropolitan region's 5 million regular gamblers still favor Atlantic City, 13 percent go to
Connecticut, and more will head to the Catskills when the opportunity comes.
Moreover, with advances in technology, competition may become more
widespread as players can satisfy their gambling desires without leaving their own front
door. According to Richard Perniciaro, the director of the Center for Regional Business
Research at Atlantic Cape Community College, the entire gaming industry may be run
over the Internet within 25 years.
FIGURE 9: Internet Gambling Revenue
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6 Beating the Odds
Because gambling is legalized across all of Nevada, Clark County has the benefit
of offering geographically diverse casino locations, each drawing in different crowds and
each generating different streams of revenue. While casinos on the strip depend heavily
on hotel and food services, downtown Vegas brings in most of its revenue through
gaming.
Legislation in New Jersey keeps gaming limited to within Atlantic City, but we
can still cater to other demographics by offering more entertainment zones within
Atlantic County. In other words, Atlantic County would become the destination, with
Atlantic City being the gaming zone within the county. Looking forward to the growing
competition within the gaming industry, our proposed solution creates not only
geographically distinct zones, but activity-based distinctions as well.
6.1 The Proposed Model – Xanadu South
Our model for the development of Atlantic County is the Xanadu Meadowlands
currently under development. This development would occupy approximately 80 acres
in eastern Hamilton Township, just west of Atlantic City International Airport. The
Xanadu development has characteristics that make it suitable as a model:
• Provides room for expansion that does not readily exist in Atlantic City
• Creates opportunities for restaurant and retail sales space that does not exist in
Atlantic City
• Provides experience in overcoming environmental issues
FIGURE 6: Artist’s Rendering of Xanadu Meadowlands
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In this way, Atlantic County becomes a family destination, immediately introducing
another demographic to the area – people for whom having an overnight destination is an
important factor in choosing a place to visit.
6.2 Xanadu Key Components
Five key components distinguish Xanadu South from the current Atlantic City
gaming environment:
• Lodging. As noted above, the occupancy rate of Atlantic City’s hotel is
almost 95 percent. This indicates a potential for many more hotel visitors,
especially if there were reasons to visit beyond gaming.
• Conference Centers. With the current environment focused almost solely on
gaming, Atlantic City presents an unattractive visage for spouses and children
of potential conference attendees. Developing a destination that is family
center will increase the likelihood that business will chose Atlantic City as a
business conference destination.
• Restaurants. Once visitors begin to stay overnight, and bring family members
with them, the restaurant trade will increase dramatically.
• Family-focused Entertainment. A key to the success of Xanadu South is
providing entertainment that is suitable for the entire family in a safe
environment in which people are comfortable traveling from one attraction to
another, regardless of the time of day.
• Sports and Amusements. Rounding out the list of key attractions is sports
and amusements, key to attracting visitors in the 18-35 age group.
6.3 Benefits
The benefits of Xanadu South come from three primary areas: jobs, economic
development, and tax revenue.
• Jobs. A project based on Xanadu Meadowlands will create 20,000 jobs
during the construction phase. The completed project will provide 20,000
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permanent jobs to the region. As seen in Attachment 1, Atlantic County had
the sixth highest unemployment rate among New Jersey counties in 2004.
• Economic Development. Due to multiplier effects, the incomes from the
20,000 jobs will generate additional economic development throughout the
region, including those counties in south New Jersey that also have higher
than average unemployment rates.
• Based on comparisons with Xanadu Meadowlands forecasts, millions of
dollars of tax revenues will flow to the surrounding communities.
6.4 Key Issues
Two key issues must be overcome for Xanadu to become a reality – overcoming
environmental concerns and involving key stakeholders.
6.4.1 Environment Overcoming environmental concerns must be a high priority for the sponsoring
organization. The Xanadu Meadowlands project was chosen as a model for Xanadu
South because of its success in resolving environmental issues. It is expected that the
sponsors of Xanadu South will enlist the help of environmental development consultants
to learn from the Xanadu Meadowlands precedent.
6.4.2 Involving Casinos The influence of the Casino Reinvestment Development Authority and individual
casino owners will be key to implementing the transportation infrastructure (described
more fully in the following section). Once the ability of Xanadu South to attract (and
retain as overnight visitors) greater numbers of visitors, casino owners will want to have
transportation hubs located at or near their casinos.
7 Tying It All Together - Transportation
The key to the success of the destination as a whole is the interconnectivity that is
required to move within the zones. A Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) system would
provide this network, as well as keep the region largely automobile-free. The goals of a
PRT system are:
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• Eliminate the need for personal automobiles
• Connect Xanadu-South to:
o Atlantic City International Airport (ACY)
o Atlantic City – “The Boardwalk”
o Park-and-Ride Centers at appropriate locations at AC Airport and near the
Garden State Parkway Atlantic City Expressway
The Atlantic County PRT system would alleviate the problem of parking garages,
which are expensive to build and are not an attractive use of space. By providing a
central, free parking area (located near the Atlantic City airport), the PRT system would
immediately leave room for casino expansions into their newly unoccupied parking
garages. This would also permit the construction of “car-free” zones enhancing the
ambiance of Atlantic City. By requiring visitors arriving by auto to park at outlying
areas and use the PRT to travel to Xanadu South and to various attraction within the
complex, Xanadu South becomes environmentally friendly, quiet, and pollution-free.
The PRT system that we use as a model is the University of West Virginia at
Morgantown. The picture below shows one of the PRT vehicles. Additional
information is available at http://web.presby.edu/~jtbell/transit/Morgantown/.
FIGURE 7: The Morgantown
Personal Rapid Transit System
Operating costs can be subsidized by
selling interactive advertising space
inside the PRT vehicles and on the sides
of the vehicles, providing a source of
advertising revenue. It is also
envisioned that PRT vehicles will be
equipped with on-board processors that
provide an interactive experience to
riders as they travel from their arrival
area to the Xanadu attractions. The
experience will include interactive
maps allowing riders to see where they are in the area and to obtain printed maps
containing directions to destinations they select. The interactive devices will also be
able to provide discount coupons on demand as riders are exposed to advertising on on-
board viewing monitors.
8 Conclusions
By relying solely on gaming revenue, Atlantic City has failed to realize its full potential.
In contrast, Las Vegas planners saw the need to offer potential visitors more than just
gaming as an attraction and began building destinations that emphasized lodging and
retail. With increasing competition from gaming locations in nearby states, Atlantic
County planners need to think beyond the constraints of current development and design
the types of facilities that will attract an entirely new demographic. Xanadu South meets
that requirement.
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ATTACHMENT 1
Unemployment Rates in New Jersey by County
Unemployment Rate (percent)
FIPS* Name 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Median Household Income (2003)
% of State Median HH Income
1 34009 Cape May County
11.2 10.5 9.8 6.4 6.6 8.0 8.0 6.9 $42,029 74.6%
2 34011 Cumberland County
8.9 8.9 8.3 5.8 6.5 7.6 7.9 6.6 $37,909 67.3%
3 34031 Passaic County 7.0 5.8 6.1 4.6 5.4 7.1 7.4 6.1 $46,093 81.8%
4 34017 Hudson County 8.1 7.3 7.1 4.8 5.6 7.7 7.4 6.1 $38,781 68.8%
5 34013 Essex County 6.8 5.6 5.6 4.5 5.4 7.3 7.3 5.9 $42,705 75.8%
6 34001 Atlantic County
7.7 7.8 7.0 4.7 4.7 6.0 6.2 5.6 $43,153 76.6%
7 34007 Camden County 5.1 4.5 4.6 3.9 4.4 5.9 6.1 5.4 $47,558 84.4%
8 34033 Salem County 5.9 5.1 4.6 3.9 4.4 5.9 6.1 5.2 $46,894 83.2%
9 34039 Union County 5.6 4.8 4.7 3.9 4.6 6.4 6.4 5.1 $53,919 95.7%
10 34029 Ocean County 5.5 4.8 4.5 3.7 4.1 5.4 5.8 4.9 $48,253 85.6%
11 34015 Gloucester County
5.1 4.5 4.4 3.6 4.0 5.3 5.4 4.8 $56,979 101.1%
12 34000 New Jersey 5.3 4.6 4.5 3.7 4.3 5.8 5.9 4.8 $56,356 100.0%
13 34023 Middlesex County
4.3 3.7 3.6 3.3 4.0 5.6 5.5 4.5 $59,352 105.3%
14 34025 Monmouth County
4.6 4.0 3.9 3.2 3.8 5.3 5.4 4.4 $68,813 122.1%
15 34003 Bergen County 4.5 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.8 5.1 5.1 4.2 $63,982 113.5%
16 34005 Burlington County
4.0 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.6 4.8 4.8 4.2 $61,420 109.0%
17 34021 Mercer County 4.7 4.1 3.8 3.3 3.7 5.3 5.1 4.2 $55,555 98.6%
18 34041 Warren County 4.7 4.0 4.0 2.9 3.4 4.8 4.9 4.2 $58,939 104.6%
19 34037 Sussex County 4.5 3.6 3.4 3.0 3.7 4.9 5.1 4.1 $69,270 122.9%
20 34035 Somerset County
2.9 2.5 2.3 2.6 3.2 4.7 4.6 3.6 $77,988 138.4%
21 34027 Morris County 3.4 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.3 4.6 4.6 3.5 $79,977 141.9%
22 34019 Hunterdon County
2.5 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.8 4.1 4.2 3.2 $84,016 149.1%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) data.
Bureau of the Census, Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates Program
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