beef overview · december 2015 beef overview boxed beef cutout - lm_xb 463 variance to close prior...
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December 2015
Beef Overview
Boxed Beef Cutout - LM_XB 463
Close
Variance to
Prior Week
Load Count
Choice $ 202.14 $ (0.16) 2,074
Select $ 188.30 $ (2.73) 965
Spread $ 13.84 $ 2.57 -
Comprehensive $ 197.70 $ (1.99) 6,380
Comprehensive Primal Values - LM_XB 463
Primal 12/12/2015 12/5/2015 Variance
Rib $ 355.09 $ 349.15 $ 5.94
Chuck $ 157.03 $ 161.42 $ (4.39)
Round $ 170.00 $ 168.78 $ 1.22
Loin $ 253.45 $ 259.68 $ (6.23)
Brisket $ 136.04 $ 136.60 $ (0.56)
Plate $ 122.76 $ 125.68 $ (2.92)
Flank $ 99.55 $ 102.08 $ (2.53)
Load Count - LM_XB 463
Sales Bucket Volume
Total Loads 6,380
Formula 3,589
0 – 21 Days 2,146
22+ Day & Contract 645
Domestic 5,936
Export 149
PRIOR WEEK KILL
Estimated Kill 12/12/2015 vs prior week vs prior YR
Total Kill 575,000 581,000 21,000 11,246
Est. Str/Hfr 452,000 454,000 9,000 5,982
Est. Cow/Bull 123,000 127,000 12,000 5,264
South Plains Live
Week Prior $ 115.00
LC FUTURES
CONTRACT PRICE W-T-D
DEC $ 121.45 $ (2.83)
FEB $ 126.25 $ (2.98)
APR $ 127.35 $ (2.63)
JUNE $ 118.80 $ (3.08)
AUG $ 116.23 $ (3.63)
OCT $ 117.28 $ (3.88)
AVG. $ 121.23
This Week Cutout Projection + $0.00
$280.00
Choice Cutout
$260.00
$240.00
$220.00
yr - 2012
yr - 2013
yr - 2014
yr - 2015
$200.00
$180.00
$160.00
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
$/C
WT
$25.00
Choice Select Spread
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$-
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 2014 2015
13 WEEK AVG CHOICE GRADE 72.00
70.00
68.00
66.00
64.00
62.00
2013
2014
2015
60.00
58.00
56.00
54.00
Jan FEB MAR APR MAY JUN July Aug Sept Oct Nov DEC
% C
HO
ICE
USDA CARCASS WEIGHTS
920
900
880
860
840
820
2012
2013
2014
2015
800
780
760
740
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Axi
s Ti
tle
$175.00
Live Cattle Market *13 Week AVG
$165.00
$155.00
$145.00
2012
2013
2014
2015
$135.00
$125.00
$115.00
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN July Aug Sept Oct Nov DEC
$/C
WT
550,000
Weekly Str Hfr Production (5-Week avg)
530,000
510,000
490,000
470,000
450,000
YR - 2011
YR - 2012
YR - 2013
YR - 2014
YR - 2015
430,000
410,000
390,000
Jan FEB MAR APR MAY JUN July Aug Sept Oct Nov DEC
160,000
COW Kill since 2011 *5 week average
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
110,000
100,000
90,000
Jan FEB MAR APR MAY JUN July Aug Sept Oct Nov DEC
# H
D p
er W
eek
$180.00
50/50 BEEF TRIM
$160.00
$140.00
$120.00
$100.00
$80.00
2012
2013
2014
2015
$60.00
$40.00
$20.00
$-
$/c
wt
$/CWT
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Be
ef, C
hicke
n B
reast, an
d P
ork sin
ce '11
$
275
.00
$2
00.0
0
Po
rk
Ch
icken B
reast
Beef
$12
5.00
$50
.00
$200.00
CHOICE BEEF MINUS PORK CUTOUT
$180.00
$160.00
$140.00
CHOICE BEEF vs PORK
$120.00
$100.00
$80.00
$60.00
1/3/2009 1/3/2010 1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013 1/3/2014 1/3/2015
$140.00
CHOICE BEEF MINUS CHICKEN BREAST
$120.00
$100.00
$80.00
$60.00
CHOICE BEEF MINUS CHICKEN BREAST
$40.00
$20.00
$-
$(20.00)
$(40.00)
1/3/2009 1/3/2010 1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013 1/3/2014 1/3/2015
1/2/2010
2/2/2010
3/2/2010
4/2/2010
5/2/2010
6/2/2010
7/2/2010
8/2/2010
9/2/2010
10/2/2010
11/2/2010
12/2/2010
1/2/2011
2/2/2011
3/2/2011
4/2/2011
5/2/2011
6/2/2011
7/2/2011
8/2/2011
9/2/2011
10/2/2011
11/2/2011
12/2/2011
1/2/2012
2/2/2012
3/2/2012
4/2/2012
5/2/2012
6/2/2012
7/2/2012
8/2/2012
9/2/2012
10/2/2012
11/2/2012
12/2/2012
Co
mp
Beef C
uto
ut vs Live C
attle
$2
70
.00
$
18
0.0
0
$1
70
.00
$2
50
.00
$1
60
.00
$2
30
.00
$1
50
.00
$2
10
.00
$
14
0.0
0
$1
30
.00
$1
90
.00
$1
20
.00
$1
70
.00
$1
10
.00
$1
50
.00
$
10
0.0
0
Cu
tou
t Live
75%
Spot vs Forward/Formula Sales since '08
46%
44%
70%
42%
40% 65%
60%
38%
36%
Forward & Formula
Spot
Linear (Forward & Formula)
Linear (Spot)
34%
55%
32%
50%
5-Jan-08 5-Jan-09 5-Jan-10 5-Jan-11 5-Jan-12 5-Jan-13 5-Jan-14 5-Jan-15
30%
FOR
WA
RD
& F
OR
MU
LA A
XIS
$250.00
CHUCK PRIMAL
$200.00
$150.00
$100.00
yr - 2011
yr - 2012
yr - 2013
yr - 2014
yr - 2015
$50.00
$-
$/C
WT
$450.00
RIB PRIMAL
$400.00
$350.00
$300.00
$250.00
$200.00
$150.00
yr - 2011
yr - 2012
yr - 2013
yr - 2014
yr - 2015
$100.00
$50.00
$-
$/C
WT
$400.00
LOIN PRIMAL
$350.00
$300.00
$250.00
$200.00
$150.00
yr - 2011
yr - 2012
yr - 2013
yr - 2014
yr - 2015
$100.00
$50.00
$-
$/C
WT
$300.00
ROUND PRIMAL
$250.00
$200.00
$150.00
$100.00
yr - 2011
yr - 2012
yr - 2013
yr - 2014
yr - 2015
$50.00
$-
$/C
WT
$250.00
BRISKET PRIMAL
$200.00
$150.00
$100.00
yr - 2011
yr - 2012
yr - 2013
yr - 2014
yr - 2015
$50.00
$-
$/c
wt
$180.00
FLANK PRIMAL
$160.00
$140.00
$120.00
$100.00
$80.00
$60.00
yr - 2011
yr - 2012
yr - 2013
yr - 2014
yr - 2015
$40.00
$20.00
$-
$/C
WT
$250.00
PLATE PRIMAL
$200.00
$150.00
$100.00
yr - 2011
yr - 2012
yr - 2013
yr - 2014
yr - 2015
$50.00
$-
$/C
WT
Comprehensive Cutout / KS Cattle Ratio * 5 week average
1.75
1.70
1.65
1.60
1.55
1.50
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.45
1.40
1.35
1.30
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