before the iran-iraq war in the years after the 1967 arab-israeli war iran, under the shah, was a us...
TRANSCRIPT
Before the Iran-Iraq War• In the years after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War Iran,
under the Shah, was a US ally while Iraq was in the Soviet camp– Iran kept an eye on the USSR & OPEC– Iraq bought arms from the USSR
• Major changes in 1979– Saddam Hussein & the Ayatollah Khomeini
gained power in Iraq & Iran, respectively– The Soviet army rolled into Afghanistan
CAUSES: Iran Iraq War 1980-1988• Assassination attempt on Iraqi
official named Tariq Aziz by a Shiite extremist group backed by Iran named DAWA
• Contested rights to waterway called Shatt Al Arab along the border of Iran and Iraq
• Saddam hoped to annex, or conquer, a part of Iran where many Arabs lived
• But remember… there are deeper, more complicated issues between Iraq and Iran
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The Iran-Iraq The Iran-Iraq War:War:
Taking SidesTaking Sides
The Iran-Iraq The Iran-Iraq War:War:
Taking SidesTaking Sides
:The US and Iraq(BFFs Donald Rumsfeld and Saddam Hussein)
In the 1980s, despite Saddam Hussein’s brutal reign, the United States under President Reagan gave the Iraqi dictator loans, arms, military training, and chemical, biological and high-tech weapons. The US shared satellite images with Iraq so the Iraqis could use chemical weapons against Iranian troops.
The US did not speak out when Hussein used poison gas against his own people, and in 1982 took Iraq off the list of countries supporting terrorism despite objections from the US State Department. One week before Iraq’s 1991 invasion of Kuwait, President Bush (the first one) vetoes Congress’ attempt to cut trade with Iraq because of its abuses of human rights.
President Reagan gave Saddam Hussein a gift of cowboy spurs, and Hussein was even made an honorary citizen of the City of Detroit.
Why would we do that?The US supported a monster like Saddam Hussein for a few reasons:
•He was more than willing to fight an eight-year war against America’s enemy Iran.
•The US liked his secular ways and discouragement of hardcore Islam, so the US saw him as a counterbalance to Iran.
•Arms sales were good for the US economy.
•The US needed to be on good terms with someone possessing so much of the world’s oil—especially since he was willing to keep it cheap.
•He was not a Communist, so Iraqi oil would not find its way to the Soviet Union.
SADDAM HUSSEIN• Modern, western
government
• Sold oil to US
• Secular, laws not based on Koran
• Sunni Arab
• Known support of terrorists (Abu Nidal)
• Wanted to make Iraq the leading state in the Middle East
AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI• Came to power through
revolution in 1979
• Shiite Persian
• Created Islamic theocracy
• Held Americans hostage in US Embassy in Iran for 444 days
• Supported Hezbollah, a known terrorist organization which attacked Israel
Who would the US support, Iran or Iraq?
Once and future Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein shake hands December 20, 1983 in Baghdad, Iraq. Rumsfeld met with Hussein during the war between Iran and Iraq as an envoy for former US President Ronald Reagan. (Photo by Getty Images)
Oliver North formulated part of the plan to sell guns to Contra rebels in Nicaragua to raise money to buy the release of hostages held by terrorists loyal to Iran.
The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988• In 1980, Iraq broke the Baghdad Pact,
invading Iran, expecting an easy victory, finding more resistance than expected
• In 1981, Israel bombed an Iraqi nuclear plant
• In 1984, the USA, fearing victory by Iran, renewed diplomatic relations with Iraq
• The USA armed & trained the Iraqi army
• Finally, stalemate in 1988
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988): Chemical Weapons
• Iran then shifted its emphasis from defense to offense
• In July the Iranians attacked Basra, Iraq’s second largest city, and in October they attacked toward Baghdad
• The Iraqis repelled the attacks, using limited amounts of mustard gas and possibly nerve gas in the process
Iranian soldier with a protective mask
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):Tanker War
• In 1984 the war escalated to a new level when Saddam began using his superior air power to halt the shipment of Iranian oil through the Persian Gulf
• The Iraqis shipped most of their oil by pipeline so the Iranians were not able to retaliate against Iraqi shipping
• Instead Iran attacked the ships of Iraq’s allies, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia– This became known as the “Tanker War”
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):War of the Cities
• From March to June 1985 the “War of the Cities” occurred with both sides launching missile attacks at major population centers
• As the Iranians increasingly dominated the ground war, Iraq stepped up its air attacks Both sides fired
SCUD missiles at each other’s cities
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):US Involvement
• In 1987 the US began playing an increasingly active role having concluded that an Iranian victory would be contrary to US interests in the region
• Kuwait transferred ownership of half of its tankers to a US shipping company and US warships provided security for them in the Persian Gulf
• There were several direct interactions between the US and Iran including the Iranian cruise missile attack against the USS Stark which killed 37 Americans
The USS Stark after the attack
Impact on Saddam of US Aid
• Transformed Saddam into a much stronger, even more ruthless leader
• Baathist power solidified, cult of the personality strengthened
• The US had a hard time convincing Saddam to engage Iran in the final battles that secured a draw—and a ceasefire
• In short, we contributed enormously to the creation of a nightmare
The Iraq-Iran War
• This was a war between a Saddam Hussein led Iraq vs. Ayatollah Khomeini’s Iranian Army.
• Iraq Invaded Iran in 1980.• At the time Iran was a bitter enemy of the U.S. with Iran
taking U.S. Hostages in 1979. This was protest against U.S. involvement in the Iranian Government. So the U.S. supported Iraq in the war.
• Iraq used Chemical Weapons against Iran on several occasions.
• The war ended in a ceasefire in 1988.
Donald Rumsfeld and Suddam Hussein
Iraqi Soldiers At Iraqi Soldiers At the Frontthe Front
Iraqi Soldiers At Iraqi Soldiers At the Frontthe Front
375,000 Iraqi casualties & 60,000 POWs!
Iranian SoldiersIranian SoldiersIranian SoldiersIranian Soldiers
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Over 1,000,000 Iranian casualties!
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):Peace
• Finally Iran accepted a truce and the war ended on Aug 20, 1988
• In the end, neither side gained anything of significance and instead plundered their treasuries and wasted thousands of lives– The war left Iraq with over $90
billion in debts– This is going to contribute to
Saddam’s decision to invade Kuwait in 1990
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):Legacy
• The Iraqis used superior air power, attacked commercial shipping, and used chemicals
• The Iranians were largely isolated from international support and often resorted to human wave tactics to offset their technological disadvantage
• The war left the long standing enmity between the two countries unresolved Iraqi soldiers celebrating in
front of a bullet-ridden picture of Ayatollah Khomeini
EFFECTS : Iran Iraq War 1980-1988
• Horrific trench warfare, massive casualties (over 1 million)
• Allegations of Iraqi use of chemical weapons on both Iranians and Iraqi Kurds
• US quietly and secretly supported both sides…
• Ended as a stalemate, although Saddam claimed victory (built the “Hands of Victory” monument pictured on right)
• Massive war debts for Iraq and Iran
Effects of Iran-Iraq War
As the war ended in 1988, Iraq was in crisis.
•Iraq had $60 billion to repay to foreign banks,
•It could no longer pay for the health care, education, nearly-free food and gas, and other benefits given to its citizens in better times,
•The price of oil had fallen sharply, crippling Iraq’s ability to repay its wartime debts.
On your Left Side, answer:
• What aspects of the Iran-Iraq War surprised you and why?
• Do you think America should have been involved in the war and allied with Saddam Hussein? Why?
Genocide in Iraq
Operation al-AnfalSpoils of War
Operation al-Anfal
• March 1987-April 1989
• Victims: Iraqi Kurds• 50,000-100,000 killed• 90% Kurdish villages in targeted area
destroyed
• Perpetrators: Ba’ath Regime- Saddam Hussein & Hassan Ali al-Majid
Leaders
Saddam Hussein – President of Iraq from 1979 to 2003
– A leading member of the Ba’ath Party
Ali Hassan al-Majid, aka "Chemical Ali”– commander of the north at that time
– Saddam’s First Cousin
Kurds
• Sunni Muslims
• Own Language & Culture
• Live in areas of Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Syria and Armenia. ( Kurdistan)– About 5 million currently live in Iraq
The Genocide of the Kurds
►Iraq also has a population of 4 million Kurds- about 23% of the population.
►The Kurds have always felt separate from the rest of Iraq.
►In fact, they are the largest people in the world without their own state- approximately 20-25 million of them live throughout Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria.
The Genocide of the Kurds
►In fact, they are the largest people in the world without their own state- approximately 20-25 million of them live throughout Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria.
Before the Genocide
Kurds over the past 90 years
• struggle and rebellion against governments that have tried to
1. assimilate them
2. at times marginalize them
The Genocide of the Kurds
►Things would get worse after 1980, when Saddam Hussein invaded Iran, leading to the bloodiest war of 20th century since WWII.
Iranian Forces
The Genocide of the Kurds
►Many Kurds began to ally themselves with Iranians in the war as an opportunity to try to break away from Iraq and gain their own state.
►As a result, violence against the Kurds increased steadily throughout the 1980’s.
The Genocide of the Kurds
►But things became the worst when Saddam appointed his cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majid (“Chemical Ali”) to handle the “Kurdish Question.”
“Chemical Ali”
History of the Kurds
• Saddam ordered the 4,000 sq mi. of Kurdish territory in northern Iraq, Arabized– Imported large Arab communities (Kurds were
Muslim)– Required Kurds to leave any area he considered
strategically valuable
• Many were deported to the southern border within 2 months
• Some sources say 200,000 others say as nearly ½ a million.
The Genocide in Kurdistan►He nicknamed his solution the “Anfal”
(“spoils”) Campaign- a reference to the 8th Sura of the Qu’ran, which refers to the 1st major victory of Muslim forces in 624 A.D.
►The Anfal Campaign lasted from February 23 1996 until September 1988- it had eight stages and involved aircraft and 200,000 Iraqi soldiers (the Kurds had no more than a few thousand troops).
Operation al-Anfal
• Evacuation of Kurds from villages• Destruction of villages• Elimination of Kurdish populations
The Genocide of the Kurds
►The campaign began by rounding up Kurds, deporting them from their homes, sending them to camps, and having the males of fighting age executed.
The Genocide of the Kurds
►The first reports of chemical weapons came in May of 1987, when 20 villages were gassed to deter the population from helping Iranian forces.
The Genocide of the Kurds
►The most infamous act of genocide, however, happened in March 1988 at the village of Halabja- where the Iranians were threatening to break through- killing 5,000 people including men, women, children, and infants (they used a hydrogen cyanide compound similar to a chemical used against the Jews during the Holocaust)
Chemical Attacks• Used on villages too difficult to for troops to
reach.
Halabja-March 16, 1988(largest chemical attack on civilians in history)
3,200-5,000 died7,000-10,000 woundedDiseases and birth defects for years to
follow
The Genocide of the Kurds
The Genocide of the Kurds
The Genocide of the Kurds
Operation al-Anfal Results
15 million land mines throughout countryside
90% of villages & 15-20 cities/towns destroyed
1.5 million Kurdish peasants interned in camps
Mass Executions
• Most Kurds who died in the Anfal were killed in mass executions
• Senior Reagan administration officials made it plain that the fate of the Kurds was not their concern
• Several Kurds survived Iraqi firing squads and later came forward to describe the horror
Final Offensive Against the Kurds
• The final offensive against the Kurds was widely known– New York Times ran a long front page story
on Sept. 1, 1988
• 65,000 Kurdish victims and survivors go to Turkey
Final Offensive Against The Kurds
• U.S officials were reluctant to criticize Iraq and took refuge in the absence of perfect information.– Said reports from Turkish border were not
unanimous.
• The Regan administration’s endless search for “evidence” provided a familiar fig leaf for inaction.
Aftermath
• U.S. calls on the UN to send in a team of experts to Iraq to investigate.– Prior investigations had concluded in 1986,
1987, and 1988 that Iraq had used chemical weapons against Iran
• By 1989 only a few hundred villages remained standing I Hussein’s “Kurdish autonomous region.– 4,049 villages had been destroyed
Impact of Second Iraq or Gulf War on America
• In 2003, nearly 85% of American citizens, and Congress, supported the invasion of Iraq.
• In 2009, about 20% of American citizens support the current invasion of Iraq.
• Why the change?
• No WMDs were ever found.
• Iraqi suicide bombers (loyal to Saddam Hussein) continue to interfere with any progress the U.S. makes in Iraq.
• Fewer Iraqi citizens support us than in 2003. (Don’t see enough progress)
• The new democratic Iraqi gov’t continues to have problems.
• As of 2009, a majority of American citizens see the Iraq War as a waste of the last 6+ years, a waste of the 4,000 American soldiers killed, believe Iraq has nothing to do with the “War on Terror,” and believe we should remove our soldiers from the country immediately.
• However, others say one of the main reasons we have not had another Sept. 11th attack is because we removed Saddam Hussein from power before he had the chance to harm the United States, and believe that we should stay in Iraq until it is safe – no matter how long that takes.
President Obama Changes Policy
• Current 142,000 troops will be reduced to 25-30,000 by end of 2010.– Iraqi Army / police will take
on more responsibility– US troops will be based
outside of cities• For support of Iraqi troops
• US troops will leave Iraq by end of 2011
Iraq So Far• Saddam Hussein
captured– Tried and executed
• 4,287 US troops killed• Over 30,000 US
troops wounded• Over 60,000 Iraqi’s
killed• $657 Billion so far
Budgetary Costs to Government
• Spending to date – $646 billion, Congressional Budget Office
• Total estimated spending thru 2017– Best case $1.7 trillion.– More probable $2.7 trillion.
Congressional Research Service estimate
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Operating costs
• The monthly “burn rate” or the war has been rising– 4.4 billion in 2003– 8 billion in 2006– 12 billion in 2007 – to an estimated 16 billion in 2008
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Predicted spending on wartime operations (thru 2017)
• Conservative estimate 521 billion
• Realistic moderate estimate 913 billion
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Military equipment replacement and repair
• Conservative estimate 132 billion
• Realistic moderate estimate 404 billion
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Sunk costs?
Additional Cost of Health Care
• Increasing demand for VA support
13,822
56,703
103,544
155,272
209,308
263,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
VA Health Care Each Year, FY 2003-2008
Source: U.S. House of representatives budget committee, based on U.S. department of veterans affairs.
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Disability Pay• Best case $422
billion
• Long-term $717 billion
• 31% of soldiers who have returned filed disability claims and expected to increase
• Corporations are required to put money away, why shouldn’t the government?04/20/23
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Cost of Demobilization
• We face a rapidly rising monthly cost to fund the war currently over 12 billion/month.– Estimated 16 billion/month in 2008
• Better estimates will follow upcoming presidential election
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School of Business
Interest Payments on Debt
• US indebtedness at end of 2008 excess of $900 billion
• Including cumulative interest on the debt-financed war borrowing, exceeds $1.1 trillion
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Economic Cost of Military and Contractor Fatalities
• 3,988 US soldiers have been killed in combat
• Government pays $500,000 to families (death benefit + life insurance)
• Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) $7.2 million
• Rough estimate of loss to U.S. economy is $28 billion due to loss of labor resource
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Economic Cost of the Seriously Injured
• 29,395 soldiers have been injured
• Value of Statistical Injury (VSI) – lost to the economy $6.1 million each
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Accelerated Depreciation of Military Hardware
• Going through equipment six to ten times faster than normal peacetime rate.
• $250-375 billion to rebuild the entire armed services
• 404 Billion - Stiglitz
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Oil
© 2008 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Yearly Basket Price
1995 16.86
1996 20.29
1997 18.68
1998 12.28
1999 17.48
2000 27.6
2001 23.12
2002 24.36
2003 28.1
2004 36.05
2005 50.64
2006 61.08
2007 69.08
2008 92.15
A significant proportion of the increase in the price of oil resulted from the
war
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School of Business
Direct costs to the U.S. economy
A realistic moderate estimate assumes that $10 per barrel is the price increase due to the war & and the duration of these high oil prices is 8 years.
The U.S. imports around 5 billion barrels a year.
A $10 per barrel increase translates into an extra expenditure of $50 billion per year.
Over the 8 years projected in the realistic moderate estimate, that is $400 billion extra expenditure on oil imports.
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On your Left Side, • At one time, Saddam Hussein was an ally
of the United States and then he became our enemy.
• In a T Chart, identify reasons why some people in Iraq would see Saddam as a hero.
• And identify reasons why others in Iraq and the United States saw Saddam as a criminal.
On your Left Side,
• Playing “Monday Morning Quarterback”, looking back, do you think President Bush should have pursued war against Iraq?
• Why or why not?