being policed? or just pleasing themselves? electoral rewards and punishment for legislative...
TRANSCRIPT
Being Policed? Or Just Pleasing Themselves?
Electoral Rewards and Punishment for Legislative Behaviour in an Era of Localized Campaigning Effects:
The Case of the UK in 2005
Why?
• Dealigned
• Increasingly localised
• Increasing information
• ‘Safe’ to protest voting
• So Now Who Do We Vote For?
• Plenty of issues
• Plenty of variance
Backbench rebellions, 2001-2005
• highest rate of rebellion since 1945• more in first session, Labour • most in final session since 1945• the largest Labour health rebellion• the largest Labour education rebellion• the (joint) largest rebellion at a Bill’s Second
Reading since 1945• the two largest rebellions by MPs of all parties
for over 150 years.
Overall correlation between rebellion and electoral performance
-0.06
Issue Loyal Rebel No of rebels standing for re-
election
Anti-Terrorism -6.5 -6.6 29
Education -6.5 -6.8 38
Nationality and Immigration -6.4 -7.1 39
Enterprise -6.5 -6.9 25
Select Committee -6.6 -5.7 29
NHS Reform -6.4 -7.1 21
Iraq -6.5 -6.4 124
Criminal Justice -6.4 -7.1 34
Health and Social Care -6.4 -6.6 72
Firefighters -6.5 -6.3 46
Asylum and Immigration -6.4 -7.2 32
Higher Education -6.5 -6.5 70
Human Tissue -6.4 -7.5 15
Gambling -6.5 -6.5 35
Children -6.5 -6.4 45
Housing -6.5 -6.9 21
Serious Organised Crime -6.4 -7.4 41
Mental Capacity -6.6 -5.8 34
ID cards -6.4 -7.4 20
Railways -6.5 -6.4 24
Prevention of Terrorism -6.3 -7.2 64
Issue Loyal Rebel No of rebels standing for re-
election
Anti-Terrorism -6.5 -6.6 29
Education -6.5 -6.8 38
Nationality and Immigration -6.4 -7.1 39
Enterprise -6.5 -6.9 25
Select Committee -6.6 -5.7 29
NHS Reform -6.4 -7.1 21
Iraq -6.5 -6.4 124
Criminal Justice -6.4 -7.1 34
Health and Social Care -6.4 -6.6 72
Firefighters -6.5 -6.3 46
Asylum and Immigration -6.4 -7.2 32
Higher Education -6.5 -6.5 70
Human Tissue -6.4 -7.5 15
Gambling -6.5 -6.5 35
Children -6.5 -6.4 45
Housing -6.5 -6.9 21
Serious Organised Crime -6.4 -7.4 41
Mental Capacity -6.6 -5.8 34
ID cards -6.4 -7.4 20
Railways -6.5 -6.4 24
Prevention of Terrorism -6.3 -7.2 64
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Percentage full-time students, 2001 census
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
Chan
ge
in L
abour vo
te 2
001-
5John Grogan
Jon Owen Jones
Valerie Davey
Anne Campbell
R Sq Linear = 0.102
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Percentage full-time students, 2001 census
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
Change in L
abour vote
2001-5
Higher Education Bill rebels
Loyal
Rebel
R Sq Linear = 0.109
R Sq Linear = 0.117
Student population Loyal Rebel N
0-4.9%-5.8 -4.1 77
5-9.9%-6.5 -6.2 162
10%+-9.3 -8.2 42
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00
Percentage Muslim
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
Chan
ge in
Labour vo
te 2
001
-5
Marsha Singh
Jack Straw
Oona King
Stephen Timms
Jim FitzpatrickR Sq Linear = 0.231
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00
Percentage Muslim
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
Chan
ge
in L
abour vo
te 2
001-
5
Iraq - all votes - rebels
Loyal
Rebel
R Sq Linear = 0.182
R Sq Linear = 0.255
Why things are complicated: Higher Education Bill
• Second Reading – on the principle of the Bill as then constituted.
• Report Stage - to remove clauses relating to top up fees.
• Third Reading – the vote on the Bill as finally constituted.
