belize 2009 - 2011 - cdm: cdm-home emission factor belize 2009-2011 [2] author: pedro f. p....

GRID EMISSION FACTOR

of

BELIZE

2009 - 2011

UNEP RISOE Centre January, 2013

Financed by:

Grid Emission Factor Belize 2009-2011

[2]

Author: Pedro F. P. Carqueija UNEP RISOE Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development DTU – Risoe Campus Roskilde, Denmark The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this report are entirely those of the author and should not be attributed in any manner to UNEP RISOE Centre and the Technical University of Denmark. This report was developed with the support of the European Commission Programme for Capacity Building related to Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) in African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) Countries. January, 2013


[3]

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................... 4

TABLES .................................................................................................................. 5

INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 6

BASELINE METHODOLOGY ................................................................................... 8

STEP 1. Identify the relevant electricity system .............................................. 8

STEP 2. Choose whether to include off-grid power plants in the project

electricity system ............................................................................................. 8

STEP 3. Select a method to determine the operating margin (OM) ................ 8

STEP 4. Calculate the operating margin emission factor according to the

selected method .............................................................................................. 9

STEP 5. Calculate the build margin (BM) emission factor .............................. 12

STEP 6. Calculate the combined margin (CM) emission factor ...................... 13

SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 15

REFERENCES ....................................................................................................... 16

ANNEX 1 – TABLES ............................................................................................. 17

ANNEX 2 – BELIZE ELECTRICITY LTD. TABLES ..................................................... 23

ANNEX 3 – MEXICO: OPERATING MARGIN (OM) FACTOR ................................. 25

STEP 1. Identify the relevant electricity system ............................................ 26

STEP 2. Choose whether to include off-grid power plants in the project

electricity system ........................................................................................... 26

STEP 3. Select a method to determine the operating margin (OM) .............. 27

STEP 4. Calculate the operating margin emission factor according to the

selected method ............................................................................................ 28

ANNEX 4 – GUIDANCE ON THE DEFINITION OF RENEWABLE BIOMASS ............ 35


[4]

ABBREVIATIONS

BAL Belize Aquaculture Limited

BECOL Belize Electric Company Limited

BEL Belize Electricity Limited

BELCOGEN Belize Cogeneration Energy Limited

BM Build Margin

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

CER Certified Emission Reduction

CFE Federal Electricity Commission of Mexico

CM Combined Margin

CO2 Carbon Dioxide equivalent

DNA Designated National Authority

DOE Designated Operational Entity

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPP Independent Power Producer

NCV Net Calorific Value

OM Operating Margin

PDD Project Design Document

SENER Mexico Secretariat of Energy

SIN National Interconnected System of Mexico

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change


[5]

TABLES

Table 1 Belize's grid/project electricity system .................................................. 17

Table 2 Share of low-cost/must-run resources of the total Belizean grid

generation in the average of the five most recent years. .................................. 18

Table 3 CO2 emissions from Belize's grid electricity system, including imports,

for the period 2009-2011. .................................................................................. 19

Table 4 3-year generation weighted average of the Average OM emission factor

for the period 2009-2011. .................................................................................. 20

Table 5 Determination of the Sample Group of power plants to include in the

calculation of the BM emission factor. .............................................................. 21

Table 6 Calculation of the BM emission factor for the year 2011. .................... 22

Table 7 Calculation of the CM emission factor for different project types and

crediting periods. ............................................................................................... 22

Table 8 Net generation and imports (in MWh) of Belize's electricity grid, for the

period 2007-2011. .............................................................................................. 23

Table 9 Fuel consumption of Belize's diesel powered plants (in US Gallons), for

the period 2007-2011. ....................................................................................... 24

Table 10 Share of low-cost/must-run resources of the total Mexican grid

generation in the average of the five most recent years. .................................. 27

Table 11 CO2 emissions of the Mexican grid generation by fuel type for the

period 2009-2011. .............................................................................................. 30

Table 12 Electricity Imports of Mexico for the period 2009-2011 ..................... 31

Table 13 Baseline electricity for the Mexican electricity system: Net electricity

generation plus imports. .................................................................................... 31

Table 14 Simple OM Factor of Mexico's Electricity System for the period 2009-

2011 (in tCO2/MWh).......................................................................................... 33


[6]

INTRODUCTION

The present work is the first attempt made to estimate the Grid Emission

Factor of Belize; an important parameter under UNFCCC's1 methodological

guidance for some Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. All CDM

project activities displacing2 electricity from a certain grid within the host

country (to the CDM project activity), are required to use this parameter to

estimate the amount of GHG emissions which are avoided (or increased) with

the implementation of the project. In simple terms, the grid emission factor

measures the carbon intensity of the grid.

Belize ratified the Convention in 1994 and the Kyoto Protocol nine years later

(in 2003). The Designated National Authority (DNA)3 of Belize is an established

authority and is located within the Ministry of Forestry, Fisheries and

Sustainable Development.

According to the recently published Second National Communication to the

UNFCCC [6], the Belizean Government presents the daunting challenge of

growing electricity demand, and the current import dependency of electricity

generated in the neighboring country, Mexico.

Problems that can be partly solved through carbon finance, particularly, the

CDM.

The grid is managed by the state-owned Belize Electricity Limited (BEL) which

also controls the distribution and transmission of the electricity.

Several independent power producers (IPP) sell part of their electricity to the

grid. These IPPs are more precisely: Belize Aquaculture Limited (BAL), Belize

Cogeneration Energy Limited (BELCOGEN) and Belize Electric Company Limited

(BECOL).

Except from BAL, which generates its electricity with a heavy fuel oil powered

turbine, all remaining IPPs generate their electricity by means of renewable

resources (hydro or biomass).

This poses a problem for CDM project proponents willing to have access to the

carbon market for additional revenues and whose projects both displace

electricity from the main grid and help reduce the country's GHG emissions.

1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

2 Either from consuming electricity from the grid or producing electricity for the grid

3 A body granted responsibility by a Party to the Kyoto Protocol to authorize and

approve participation in CDM projects.


[7]

This problem arises from the fact that, due to the high share of renewable

sources in the electricity generation mix, the grid emission factor becomes very

low, practically discouraging investments that would be otherwise more

attractive, if significant carbon revenues would be part of the final balance

sheet4.

However, recent upgrades to the methodology allow host countries (and CDM

project proponents) to attribute an emission factor to the net electricity

imported. Before, this factor had to be set to zero, lowering in consequence

the grid emission factor.

With the new guidance, imports from Mexico can brighten up the whole

picture of the grid emission factor of Belize, significantly increasing its value,

due to the high share of electricity that enters the Belizean grid from Mexico.

The methodology applied is described in "Tool to calculate the emission factor

for an electricity system – version 03.0.0", officially published by UNFCCC.

The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment of Belize provided the

data for grid generation and fuel consumption.

The source for Mexico's information is a series of reports published by the

Secretariat of Energy of Mexico (SENER).

4 For example, for a certain value of electricity generated by a CDM project activity, the

higher the grid emission factor, the more Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) the project will collect. Therefore, a higher profit from the sale of the latter.


[8]

BASELINE METHODOLOGY

STEP 1. Identify the relevant electricity system

The grid/project electricity system is made of all the power plants listed in

Table 1.

As mentioned before, Belize buys electricity to the state-owned Federal

Electricity Commission of Mexico (CFE).

The Mexican Secretariat of Energy (SENER) explains5 in their latest annual

report [7] that the connection between Belize and Mexico operates steadily as

Belize's electricity system is small and does not generate instability problems to

the Mexican National Electricity System (SEN). The transmission line has 115 kV

and a capacity of 40 MW (refer to Figure 1 in Annex 3).

According to the tool, future additions to the transmission capacity enable

significant increases in imported electricity. In such cases, the transmission

capacity may be considered a build margin source. In the case of the

transmission capacity between these two countries, it is highly unlikely that

future additions will take place.

The connected electricity system is, then, considered to be the National

Interconnected System of Mexico (SIN) – refer to Annex 3 for more details.

STEP 2. Choose whether to include off-grid power plants in the project electricity system

Option I is chosen in this step; only grid power plants are included in the

calculation due to the lack of consistent and/or available data for off-grid

power plants/units.

STEP 3. Select a method to determine the operating margin (OM)

The tool [1] offers four different methods to calculate the OM emission factor:

5 Original text: "En cuanto a la interconexión con Belice, ésta opera de manera

permanente debido a que el sistema de ese país es pequeño y no genera problemas de inestabilidad al SEN." ([7], page 95)


[9]

a) Simple OM

b) Simple adjusted OM

c) Dispatch data analysis OM

d) Average OM

The available data provided by the Ministry of Natural Resources and the

Environment (refer to Annex 2) is on a yearly basis, both on electricity

generation and fossil fuel consumption of the power plants/units connected to

the electricity system. This means that methods b) and c) can be excluded from

further consideration, as they both require hourly data.

In order to use method a), it is compulsory to demonstrate that low-cost/must-

run resources6 constitute less than 50% of the total grid generation in one of

the following two cases:

1) In the average of the five most recent years; or

2) Based on long-term averages for hydroelectricity production.

Table 2 presents a five year average of the low-cost/must-run generation share

in the system. The values are relative to the period between 2007 and 2011.

As it can be noticed, low-cost/must-run production is high above 50% of the

total grid generation in all the years considered (an average of 90%), which

means that method a) cannot be used to calculate the OM emission factor. The

assessment proceeds using method d), Average OM.

An ex ante approach will be followed, so that no monitoring and recalculation

of the emissions factor are required during the first crediting period. A 3-year

generation-weighted average, based on the most recent data available is

applied.

STEP 4. Calculate the operating margin emission factor according to the selected method

The tool [1] presents two options to carry out the calculation. As the net

electricity generation and a CO2 emission factor of each power unit are

available, option A in the tool will (and must) be used.

The OM emission factor, EFgrid,OMsimple,y, is calculated using Equation 1:

6 Low-cost/must-run resources are defined as "power plants with low marginal generation costs or power plants that are dispatched independently of the daily or seasonal load of the grid. They typically include hydro, geothermal, wind, low-cost biomass, nuclear and solar generation. If coal is obviously used as must-run, it should also be included in this list, i.e. excluded from the set of plants." [1]


[10]

(1)

where:

EFgrid,OMsimple,y: Simple operating margin CO2 emission factor in year y

(in tCO2/MWh)

EGm,y: Net quantity of electricity generated and delivered to the grid

by power unit m in year y (in MWh)

EFEL,m,y: CO2 emission factor of power unit m in year y (in tCO2/MWh)

m: All power units serving the grid in year y (except low-cost/must-run

power units if the Simple OM method is used)

y: The relevant year as per that data vintage chosen in Step 3 (in this

case the ex ante option was chosen).

The emission factor of each power unit m is calculated using Option A1 (as per

the tool), using Equation 2:

(2)

where:


FCi,m,y: Amount of fossil fuel type i consumed by power unit m in year y

(in mass or volume unit)

NCVi,y: Net calorific value (energy content) of fossil fuel type I in year y

(in GJ/mass or volume unit)

EFCO2,i,y: CO2 emission factor of fossil fuel type i in year y (in tCO2/GJ)





i: All fossil fuel types combusted in power unit m in year y



In the particular case of BAL power plant, to which only data for net electricity

generation and fuel type is available, Equation 3 (under Option A2 of the tool)

is applied:

(3)

where:


[11]


EFCO2,i,y: CO2 emission factor of fossil fuel type i used in power unit m

in year y (in tCO2/GJ)

ηm,y: Average net energy conversion efficiency of power unit m in year

y (ratio)





The IPCC default values for the NCVi,y, at the lower limit of the uncertainty at a

95% confidence interval, are used. The latter can be found in Table 1.2 of

Chapter 1 of Vol.2 (Energy) of the IPCC Guidelines on National GHG Inventories

[2]. In this particular case, diesel is the only fossil fuel type that requires this

parameter. The condition of Equation 4 is applied.

(4)

To convert liters to tones, a density value for diesel is set by Equation 5. The

information is extracted from [3].

(5)

The IPCC default values for EFCO2,i,y, at the lower limit of the uncertainty at a

95% confidence interval, are used. The latter can be found in Table 1.4 of

Chapter 1 of Vol.2 (Energy) of the IPCC Guidelines on National GHG Inventories

[2]. The values used for diesel and heavy (residual) fuel oil are set by Equation

6.

(6a)

(6b)

Finally, one more parameter is needed to apply the equations above. The

parameter is the efficiency factor of the BAL power plant. As no information is

available from the utility, the dispatch center or from official records, the

default value provided in Annex 1 of the tool [1] is used. Equation 7 sets the

value of this parameter. BAL uses a steam turbine to produce electricity.


[12]

(7)

Table 3 presents the results of the equations above, while Table 4 presents the

final results.

STEP 5. Calculate the build margin (BM) emission factor

To calculate the BM emission factor, the tool presents two options

(differentiated in terms of vintage of data).

Option 1 is chosen in this report. The BM emission factor is calculated ex ante

"based on the most recent information available on units already built for

sample group m at the time of CDM-PDD submission to the DOE for validation

(…)" [1], for the first crediting period. The second and third crediting periods

require an update of the BM emission factor; monitoring of the emission factor

is not required during the crediting periods.

Capacity additions from retrofits of power plants are not included in the

calculation of the BM emission factor.

A sample group of power units to be used in the calculation is determined as

per the guidance given by the tool, and according to the data vintage selected.

Table 5 presents the results of this process. The latest information available is

relative to 2011.

As it can be observed, the five most recent power units7, constitute 60% of the

total electricity generation in 2011. To reach a minimum of 20% share, only one

of these power units is needed (making up a share of 25%) and, as a result, all

five power units will be considered for the sample group.

The BM emissions factor is "the generation-weighted average emission factor

of all power units m during the most recent year y for which electricity data is

available (…)" [1]. It is calculated using Equation 8.

(8)

where:

7 None of them registered as CDM project activities and all of them not older than 10 years.


[13]

EFgrid,BM,y: Simple operating margin CO2 emission factor in year y (in

tCO2/MWh)




m: Power units included in the build margin (Sample group)

y: Most recent historical year for which electricity generation data is

available

Table 6 shows the results from Equation 8.

STEP 6. Calculate the combined margin (CM) emission factor

The calculation of the CM emission factor, EFgrid,CM,y, is based on the 'Weighted

average CM' methodology, since one of the conditions8 to apply the 'Simplified

CM' option is not met – the data requirements to apply the build margin

methodology are available.

Equation 9 is used to calculate the Weighted Average CM.

(9)

where the new variables refer to:

wOM: Weighting of OM emission factor (%)

wBM: Weighting of BM emission factor (%)

Equation 10 sets the boundary condition to apply these weights, which can

balance differently according to the type of CDM project.

(10)

The weights of wind and solar power project activities, due to their

intermittent and non-dispatchable nature, can be set as in Equation 11, for all

crediting periods.

(11a)

8 The second condition is met, nonetheless. It would be enough to mention that Belize has

currently less than 10 registered CDM projects.


[14]

(11b)

All other project activities should use the weights set by Equation 12, for the

first crediting period only.

(12a)

(12b)

In the following crediting periods, CDM project proponents should use:

and .

New weights can be proposed to the CDM Executive Board, if conveniently

explained. Refer to the tool [1] for more guidance on how to propose new

weights.

The author recommends using the weights above, for simplicity purposes.

Table 7 shows the final results, using the three sets of weights above.

As it can be observed, wind and solar projects would be much more attractive

for their CER revenues than other project activities displacing electricity from

the grid.


[15]

SUMMARY

Recalling the results from Table 7 (repeated below), it can be observed that, as

expected, wind and solar CDM project activities displacing electricity from the

grid are more attractive in terms of their potential CER revenues. A simple

statistical calculation shows a 50% increase in revenues (per MWh produced)

for wind and solar projects in comparison with other projects, for the first

crediting period.

Project proponents of CDM project activities other than wind and solar, should

preferably consider a non-renewable 10-year crediting period, as the CM

emission factor for subsequent crediting periods is approximately reduced by

half9.

Table 7 (Repeated) CM emission factor for the Grid/Project Electricity System of Belize.

Option WOM WBM EFgrid,CM (tCO2/MWh)

All Project Activities (except wind and solar) 0.5 0.5 0.1519

Wind and Solar 0.75 0.25 0.2278

All Project Activities - 2nd and 3rd Crediting Period 0.25 0.75 0.0759

In the case where the emission factor of Mexican imports would have been set

to zero, the CM emission factors would be decreased by 85%. A value of 0.0340

tCO2/MWh and 0.0226 tCO2/MWh, respectively, for wind and solar CDM

project activities and all other projects, during the first crediting period.

9 The last CM emission factor in Table 7 is just an approximate value, as for the second

and third crediting periods the calculation must be updated. Perhaps the CM emission factor is even lower, as new renewable sources are added to the system in Belize and/or to the system in Mexico, or higher, if fossil-fuel power plants are installed. Either way, the weights 0.25/0.75 should, still, be used.


[16]

REFERENCES

[1] UNFCCC, Tool to calculate the emission factor for an electricity system –

Version 03.0.0, 2011. Available at: http://cdm.unfccc.int/Reference/tools/index.html

[2] IPCC, 2006 IPCC Guidelines on National GHG Inventories, 2006. Available at: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/2_Volume2/V2_1_Ch1_Introduction.pdf

[3] OECD/IEA, Energy Statistics Manual, 2004. Available at: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/NRG-2004/EN/NRG-2004-EN.PDF

[4] Secretaria de Energia Mexico, Balance Nacional de Energía 2011, 2012.

Available at: http://sener.gob.mx/portal/publicaciones.html

[5] UNFCCC, EB 23 Meeting Report - Annex 18 – Definition of Renewable Biomass, 2006

[6] Government of Belize, Second National Communication to the Conference

of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Chante,

2011. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/belize_snc_final_edit_august-

2011__final__ia.pdf

[7] Secretaria de Energia Mexico, Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico 2012-2026,

2012. Available at: http://sener.gob.mx/portal/publicaciones.html

http://cdm.unfccc.int/Reference/tools/index.html

http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/2_Volume2/V2_1_Ch1_Introduction.pdf

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/NRG-2004/EN/NRG-2004-EN.PDF

http://sener.gob.mx/portal/publicaciones.html

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/belize_snc_final_edit_august-2011__final__ia.pdf

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/belize_snc_final_edit_august-2011__final__ia.pdf

http://sener.gob.mx/portal/publicaciones.html


[17]

ANNEX 1 – TABLES

Table 1 Belize's grid/project electricity system

Power plant Commissioning year Fuel type Low-cost/must-run

BEL - GT 2003 Diesel

BEL - Diesel engines

Diesel

BECOL - Mollejon 1995 Hydro x

BECOL - Chalillo 2005 Hydro x

BECOL - Vaca 2010 Hydro x

HydroMaya 2007 Hydro x

BAL 2009 Heavy Fuel Oil

Belcogen 2009 Bagasse x


[18]

Table 2 Share of low-cost/must-run resources of the total Belizean grid generation in the average of the five most recent years.

Power Plant

EGm,y - Net Generation (MWh)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5-year average

BEL - GT 18,610.29 3,811.33 9,503.74 1,654.94 1,323.01 6,980.66

BEL - Diesel engines 17,467.73 6,892.81 9,256.09 5,953.25 5,587.22 9,031.42

BECOL - Mollejon 131,052.00 150,911.61 143,772.22 138,769.99 122,399.28 137,381.02

BECOL - Chalillo 35,675.00 40,677.67 36,177.21 37,159.11 30,161.21 35,970.04

BECOL - Vaca 0.00 0.00 0.00 73,634.88 79,520.73 30,631.12

HydroMaya 10,676.00 12,898.00 7,760.00 13,586.00 12,518.20 11,487.64

BAL 0.00 0.00 48,781.00 4,461.00 0.00 10,648.40

Belcogen 0.00 0.00 1,330.00 48,175.00 70,719.98 24,045.00

Percentage of low-cost/must-run 83% 95% 74% 96% 98% 90%


[19]

Table 3 CO2 emissions from Belize's grid electricity system, including imports, for the period 2009-2011.

Power plant Fuel type EFCO2,I,y - Fuel

Emission Factor (tCO2/TJ)

EGm,y - Net generation (MWh) FCi,m,y - Fuel

consumption (TJ) EFEL,m,y - Emission Factor

(tCO2/MWh) CO2 emissions (tCO2)

2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011

BEL - GT Diesel 72.6 9,503.74 1,654.94 1,323.01 119.11 21.95 21.77 0.9099 0.9629 1.1948 8,647.58 1,593.60 1,580.70

BEL - Diesel engines Diesel 72.6 9,256.09 5,953.25 5,587.22 103.60 65.57 60.93 0.8126 0.7996 0.7917 7,521.52 4,760.24 4,423.41

BECOL - Mollejon Hydro 0 143,772.22 138,769.99 122,399.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.00

BECOL - Chalillo Hydro 0 36,177.21 37,159.11 30,161.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.00

BECOL - Vaca Hydro 0 0.00 73,634.88 79,520.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.00

HydroMaya Hydro 0 7,760.00 13,586.00 12,518.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.00

BAL Heavy Fuel Oil 75.5 48,781.00 4,461.00 0.00 b b b 0.6969 0.6969 0.6969 33,996.60 3,108.97 0.00

Belcogen Bagasse 0 a 1,330.00 48,175.00 70,719.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.00

Belize Electricity System (incl. low-cost/must-run)

n/a n/a 256,580.27 323,394.17 322,229.62 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 50,165.70 9,462.82 6,004.11

Net imports (Mexico) c n/a n/a 216,233.00 159,876.00 170,611.93 n/a n/a n/a 0.6850 0.6850 0.6850 148,119.61 109,515.06 116,869.17

Baseline Electricity System n/a n/a 472,813.27 483,270.17 492,841.54 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 198,285.30 118,977.88 122,873.28

a) Bagasse is considered a low-cost/must-run resource. Therefore, the fuel emission factor is set to zero for the purpose of this assessment. b) Due to lack of information on the fuel consumption, the emission factor is calculated using Equation 3. c) Net imports are calculated by subtracting the electricity exported from the electricity imported from, and to, the country, respectively. In this case, the net imports are equal to the imports, as Belize does not export electricity to Mexico. - 1 US Gallon is equivalent to 3.785 liters - Generation technology of BAL is a Steam Turbine with efficiency factor of 39%, as per Annex 1 of the tool [1].


[20]

Table 4 3-year generation weighted average of the Average OM emission factor for the period 2009-2011.

2009 2010 2011

Net generation (MWh) 472,813.27 483,270.17 492,841.54

Simple OM (tCO2/MWh) 0.4194 0.2462 0.2493

Average Simple OM (tCO2/MWh) 0.3038


[21]

Table 5 Determination of the Sample Group of power plants to include in the calculation of the BM emission factor.

Power Plant Commissioning year Fuel type EGm - Net Electricity Generation in 2011

(MWh) Cumulative share (%) AEGSET-5-units

a (MWh) AEGSET-20%

b

(MWh) AEGTotal

c (MWh)

BECOL - Vaca 2010 Hydro 79,520.73 25%

192,920.11 79,520.73 322,229.62

Belcogen 2009 Bagasse 70,719.98 47%

BAL 2009 Heavy Fuel Oil 0.00 47%

HydroMaya 2007 Hydro 12,518.20 51%

BECOL - Chalillo 2005 Hydro 30,161.21 60%

BEL - GT 2003 Diesel 1,323.01 60%

BECOL - Mollejon 1995 Hydro 122,399.28 98%

BEL - Diesel engines - Diesel 5,587.22 100%

a) Annual net electricity generated by the five most recent power units that started to supply electricity to the grid, excluding the ones registered as CDM project activities. (highlighted in light grey) b) Annual net electricity generated by the set of power units, excluding the ones registered as CDM project activities, that started to supply electricity to the grid most recently and that comprise 20% of the annual net electricity generation of the project electricity system. According to the tool, if 20% falls on part of the generation of a unit, the generation of that unit is fully included in the calculation. (highlighted in darker grey) c) Annual net electricity generation of the project electricity system, excluding power units registered as CDM project activities.


[22]

Table 6 Calculation of the BM emission factor for the year 2011.

Power Plant EGm - Net electricity

generation (MWh) FCi,m - Fuel consumption

(TJ) EFEL,m - Emission Factor

(tCO2/MWh) CO2 emissions (tCO2) EFgrid,BM

BECOL - Vaca 79,520.73 0.00 0.0000 0.00

0.0000

Belcogen 70,719.98 0.00 0.0000 0.00

BAL 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0.00

HydroMaya 12,518.20 0.00 0.0000 0.00

BECOL - Chalillo 30,161.21 0.00 0.0000 0.00

Table 7 Calculation of the CM emission factor for different project types and crediting periods.

Option WOM WBM EFgrid,CM (tCO2/MWh)

All Project Activities (except wind and solar) 0.5 0.5 0.1519

Wind and Solar 0.75 0.25 0.2278

All Project Activities - 2nd and 3rd Crediting Period 0.25 0.75 0.0759


[23]

ANNEX 2 – BELIZE ELECTRICITY LTD. TABLES

The data presented in the tables below is provided by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Belize.

Table 8 Net generation and imports (in MWh) of Belize's electricity grid, for the period 2007-2011.

Power plant Commissioning

year Fuel type

Net Generation (MWh)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Net Diesel Generation - - 36,078 10,704 18,760 7,608 6,910

GT - LM2500 2003 Diesel 18,610 3,811 9,504 1,655 1,323

Diesel Engines - CAT 3516

Diesel 17,468 6,893 9,256 5,953 5,587

Purchased Power - BECOL - - 166,727 191,589 179,949 249,564 232,081

Mollejon 1995 Hydro 131,052 150,912 143,772 138,770 122,399

Chalillo 2005 Hydro 35,675 40,678 36,177 37,159 30,161

Vaca 2010 Hydro - - - 73,635 79,521

Purchased Power - HydroMaya 2007 Hydro 10,676 12,898 7,760 13,586 12,518

Purchased Power - BAL 2009 Heavy

(Residual) Fuel Oil

- - 48,781 4,461 -

Purchased Power - Belcogen 2009 Bagasse - - 1,330 48,175 70,720

Purchased Power - CFE

Mexico 225,227 248,396 216,233 159,876 170,612

Total 438,708 463,587 472,813 483,270 492,842


[24]

Table 9 Fuel consumption of Belize's diesel powered plants (in US Gallons), for the period 2007-2011.

Power plant Commissioning

year Fuel Type

Fuel Oil Consumption (US Gallons)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GT - LM2500 2003 Diesel 1,651,873 384,516 904,924 166,763 165,412

Diesel Engines - CAT 3516 Diesel 1,394,467 552,511 787,088 498,134 462,887

Total 3,046,340 937,027 1,692,012 664,897 628,300


[25]

ANNEX 3 – MEXICO: OPERATING MARGIN (OM) FACTOR

According to the methodological tool [1], non-zero CO2 emission factor(s) for net electricity imports from connected electricity systems may be considered

when calculating the OM emission factor of the project electricity system10

. This is especially beneficial to countries highly dependent on electricity imports and

whose grids have low-carbon intensity.

One of the following options can be used:

a. Weighted average OM emission rate of the exporting grid, determined as described in Step 4 (d) of the tool [1];

b. Simple OM emission rate of the exporting grid, determined as described in Step 4 (a) of the tool [1], if the conditions for this method, as described in

Step 3 of the tool [1], apply to the exporting grid; or

c. Simple adjusted OM emission rate of the exporting grid, determined as described in Step 4 (b) of the tool [1].

Option c. can be immediately neglected as hourly data for Mexico's electricity system is not available. Option b. is the preferred option, among the remaining

two, but the conditions to apply this method must be met.

10 The CO2 emission factor can nonetheless be set to 0 tCO2/MWh. A zero value must be used if the connected electricity systems are located in Annex I country(ies).


[26]

STEP 1. Identify the relevant electricity system11

The Mexican electricity system (SEN) is constituted by the National Interconnected System (SIN) and two isolated grids (Baja California and Baja California Sur)

[10]. However, data for the SIN alone is not made available in published reports; therefore data for the whole SEN must be considered. Electricity is imported

from United States of America while, exports flow not only on the opposite direction but to the neighboring countries of Guatemala and Belize [10]. These

three countries are considered as the connected electricity system.

The CO2 emission factor from electricity imports is set to 0 tCO2/MWh.

STEP 2. Choose whether to include off-grid power plants in the project electricity system

Option I is chosen in this step; only grid power plants are included in the calculation due to the lack of available data for off-grid power plants/units.

11 Hereunder, the author will stop referring to the Mexican electricity system as the 'Connected electricity system', in order to avoid confusion with the terminology. The

Mexican electricity system will, for the purpose of determining the OM emission factor, correspond to the 'Project Electricity System', as defined under the tool.


[27]

STEP 3. Select a method to determine the operating margin (OM)

As mentioned above, hourly data is not available at the time of writing this document and, therefore, only two options are left available to calculate the OM

emission factor – Simple OM and Average OM.

The results presented in Table 10, determine that the Simple OM method can be used, as low-cost/must-run resources constitute less than 50% of total grid

generation in the average of the five most recent years (to which data is available).

Table 10 Share of low-cost/must-run resources of the total Mexican grid generation in the average of the five most recent years.

Generator type Gross Electricity Generation by type a (GWh)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5-year average

Conventional Thermoelectric 49,482 43,325 43,112 40,570 47,869 44,872

Dual 13,375 6,883 12,299 15,578 11,547 11,936

Combined Cycle 102,674 107,830 113,900 115,865 119,978 112,049

Gas turbine 2,666 2,802 3,735 3,396 4,126 3,345

Internal Combustion 1,139 1,234 1,241 1,242 1,131 1,197

Hydroelectric 27,042 38,892 26,445 36,738 35,796 32,983

Coal-fired 18,101 17,789 16,886 16,485 22,008 18,254

Nuclear 10,421 9,804 10,501 5,879 10,089 9,339

Geothermal 7,404 7,056 6,740 6,618 6,507 6,865


[28]

Wind 248 255 249 166 106 205

Total 232,552 235,870 235,108 242,537 259,157 241,045

Percentage of low-cost/must run 19% 24% 19% 20% 20% 20%

a) It would yield the same result, in terms of percentage, if net electricity generation would be used instead of gross electricity generation.

The emission factor will be calculated following the ex-ante option, using a "3-year generation-weighted average, based on the most recent data available at

the time of submission of the CDM-PDD to the DOE for validation" [1].

The analysis continues therefore for the years 2009, 2010 and 2011. The Simple OM emission factor, calculated as the 3-year generation-weighted average, will

be used to estimate the CO2 emissions of the net electricity exports to Belize, for the years 2009, 2010 and 2011.

In addition, the choice of the ex-ante option originates from the fact that yearly statistics are only published by SENER at the end of the following year, posing a

problem to project proponents opting for the ex-post option.

STEP 4. Calculate the operating margin emission factor according to the selected method

OPTION B is chosen under this step. The calculation is based on the total net electricity generation of all power plants serving the system and the fuel types

and the total fuel consumption of the project electricity system.

The three conditions below need to be respected, in order to use this option:

a. The necessary data for Option A is not available


[29]

Data for each power unit is not available. Individual electricity generation and fuel consumption are only available to the main generating plants.

Therefore, option A is not considered. Condition a. is respected.

b. Only nuclear and renewable power generation are considered as low-cost/must-run power sources and the quantity of electricity supplied to the

grid by these sources is known

Condition b. is respected.

c. Off-grid power plants are not included in the calculation (i.2. Option I has been chosen in Step 2)

Condition c. is respected.

The Simple OM emission factor is calculated by means of Equation A1. A 3-year generation-weighted average is subsequently used.

(A1)

where:

EFgrid,OMSimple,y: Simple operating margin CO2 emission factor in year y (in tCO2/MWh)

FCi,y: Amount of fossil fuel type i consumed in the project electricity system in year y (in mass or volume unit)

NCVi,y: Net calorific value (energy content) of fossil fuel type i in year y (in GJ/mass or volume unit)

EFCO2,i,y: CO2 emission factor of fossil fuel type i in year y (in tCO2/GJ)


[30]

EGm,y: Net electricity generated and delivered to the grid by all power sources serving the system, not including low-cost/must-run power plants/units,

in year y (in MWh)

m: All power units serving the grid in year y (except low-cost/must-run power units if the Simple OM method is used)

i: All fossil fuel types combusted in power sources in the project electricity system in year y

y: The relevant year as per the that data vintage chosen in Step 3 (in this case the ex ante option was chosen).

Electricity imports are included in the calculation, while electricity generation from low-cost/must-run power plants/units is excluded.

Tables 11-13 are the cornerstones for the final results presented in Table 14. The Simple Operation Margin emission factor of the Mexican electricity system is

found to be 0,6850 tCO2/MWh.

This value will be used to estimate the CO2 emissions of the amount of net electricity imported12

by Belize for the period 2009-2011.

Table 11 CO2 emissions of the Mexican grid generation by fuel type for the period 2009-2011.

Fuel type EFCO2 (tCO2/TJ)

2009 2010 2011

Share (%)

Fuel consumption

(TJ)

CO2 Emissions (tCO2)

Share (%)

Fuel consumption

(TJ)


Share (%)

Fuel consumption

(TJ)


Fuel oil 75.50 22.59% 425,860 32,152,430 20.27% 371,620 28,057,310 21.24% 420,920 31,779,460

12 Net electricity imports are calculated by subtracting the electricity exports to the electricity imports (Net electricity imports = Imports – Exports).


[31]

Natural Gas (National) 54.30 60.57% 1,141,560 61,986,708 61.26% 1,123,110 60,984,873 60.71% 1,203,090 65,327,787

Natural Gas (Imported) 54.30 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0

Liquified Natural Gas 58.30 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0

Diesel 72.60 1.01% 19,120 1,388,112 0.90% 16,560 1,202,256 1.01% 20,090 1,458,534

Coal (national) 87.30 14.13% 266,390 23,255,847 15.66% 287,060 25,060,338 15.29% 303,020 26,453,646

Coal (imported) 87.30 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0

LPG 61.60 0.00% 20 1,232 0.00% 30 1,848 0.14% 2,710 166,936

Coke-oven coke 95.70 1.69% 31860 3049002 1.90% 34860 3336102 1.60% 31770 3040389

Total n/a 100.00% 1,884,810 121,833,331 100.00% 1,833,240 118,642,727 100.00% 1,981,600 128,226,752

Source: SENER (2012), Balance Nacional de Energía 2011, page 56, Figure 23

Table 12 Electricity Imports of Mexico for the period 2009-2011

2009 2010 2011

Imports (GWh) 346 397 596

Source: SENER (2012), Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico 2012-2026, page 113, Table 23

Table 13 Baseline electricity for the Mexican electricity system: Net electricity generation plus imports.

Generator type 2009 2010 2011

Conventional Thermoelectric 43,112 40,570 47,869


[32]


Dual 12,299 15,578 11,547

Combined Cycle 113,900 115,865 119,978

Gas turbine 3,735 3,396 4,126

Internal Combustion 1,241 1,242 1,131

Hydroelectric 26,445 36,738 35,796

Coal-fired 16,886 16,485 22,008

Nuclear 10,501 5,879 10,089

Geothermal 6,740 6,618 6,507

Wind 249 166 106

Gross Electricity Generation by type (GWh) 235,108 242,537 259,157

Self-use of Generation, Transmission and Distribution (GWh)

10,833 11,088 11,909

Remote charges (GWh) 9,786 11,899 11,871

Net Electricity Generation (GWh) 214,489 219,550 235,377

Baseline Net Electricity Generation (GWh)a 174,407 174,831 187,696

Imports (GWh) 346 397 596

Baseline Net Electricity Generation + Imports (GWh) 174,753 175,228 188,292


[33]


Source: SENER (2012), Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico 2012-2026, page 113, Table 23 a) Does not take into account the low-cost/must-run share of 'Self-use' and 'Remote Charges'.

Table 14 Simple OM Factor of Mexico's Electricity System for the period 2009-2011 (in tCO2/MWh)

2009 2010 2011

CO2 Emissions (tCO2) 121,833,331 118,642,727 128,226,752

Baseline Net Electricity Generation + Imports (MWh) 174,753,105 175,228,093 188,292,167

Simple OM (tCO2/MWh) 0.6972 0.6771 0.6810

Simple OM (tCO2/MWh) 0.6850


[34]

Figure 1 Transmission line between Mexico and Belize: 115kV with 40MW capacity. Source: [7]


[35]

ANNEX 4 – GUIDANCE ON THE DEFINITION OF RENEWABLE BIOMASS

In order to find out whether bagasse13

can be considered as Renewable Biomass, the official guidance provide in Annex 18 of the report [5] originated from the

twenty-third CDM Executive Board meeting is followed.

According to the guidance, biomass is renewable if one of the following conditions applies:

1. The biomass is originating from land areas that are forests (...)

2. The biomass is woody biomass and originates from croplands and/or grasslands (...)

3. The biomass is non-woody biomass and originates from croplands and/or grasslands (...)

4. The biomass is a biomass residue [a by-product] (...)

5. The biomass is a non-fossil fraction of an industrial or municipal waste (...)

Option 1, 2 and 5 can be immediately disregarded as they are not relevant for this case.

Option 4 refers in its core to CDM Project Activities using biomass residues (bagasse, in the present case), that otherwise would have been dumped or left to

decay, for energy generation. However, the bagasse used by BELCOGEN to generate electricity falls exactly under the same scenario and, therefore, it can be

considered a renewable source.

13 In Belize, bagasse is a by-product of sugarcane production.


[36]

Option 3 could be used as well to argument in favour of bagasse as renewable biomass.


[37]

GRID EMISSION FACTOR OF BELIZE

Prepared by Pedro F. P. Carqueija

UNEP RISØ Centre, December 2012

belize 2009 - 2011 - cdm: cdm-home emission factor belize 2009-2011 [2] author: pedro f. p....

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