belize national transportation master plan 2014

Jung Wook KIM(Korea Development Institute)Eui Young SHON(THE UNIVERSITY OF SEOUL)Seol Joo KIM (TESO ENGINEERING)

The National Transportation Master Plan in Belize

2014. 4. 25

2

C o n t e n t s

I.OverviewII.Korea’s ExperiencesIII.Transportation Situation

& AlternativesIV.Future Demand Fore-

castingV.Evaluation & Transporta-

tion Master PlanVI.Financing Sources

OverviewⅠ

4

Ⅰ Overview

Implementation of 『 The National Transportation Master Plan in Belize 』 Sponsored by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance (ROK) The Korea Development Institute, University of Seoul & TESO Engineering

Development of National Transportation Master Plan in Belize · Need long-term national development plan at national level · Increase the efficiency of movement of people and goods · Facilitate growth and serve future needs and competitiveness · Ensure the best value of transportation services to a growing economy

Feb. 2013: Request for KSP policy advice on Development of National Transportation Master Plan in Belize

BackgroundAnd

Objective

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Ⅰ Overview

Scope

of

work

[ Current situation and plan analysis] · Related data collection · Socio- economic data, road network, transportation services · Existing future plan analysis [Transportation demand forecast] · Establish current transportation origin and destination

· Forecast future origin and destination

[Development of mid & long-term national transportation network in Belize] · Set up transportation network alternatives · Cost estimation of alternatives · Recommend best transportation networks · Financing sources

Work schedule · July, 2013 ~ April, 2014

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Ⅰ Overview

Work Process

Korea`s Experience

Collect Local Opinion

Draw Problems

Financing Sources

AHPAnalysis

New Transportation Network

Prospect of Future Condition

Selection Alt.

B / CAnalysis

Subscription Local Data

Situation Investigation & Analysis

Related Plans

NoNo

Yes

Korea’s ExperiencesⅡ

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Ⅱ Korea’s Experiences

Before 1960s• Restoring devastated infrastructure

- Without establishing the national plan, then government only completed restoring work through grants from the USA

I. National Development Plan National Master Plan

Five-Year Economic Development Plan(1962-2002)• Six more consecutive Five-Year Economic Development Plan• Government initiated medium-term economic plan for economic growth• Developing industrial areas mainly connecting Seoul to Incheon port and Busan port

- Connect these major industrial area instead of paving national roads.

Comprehensive National Land Use Development Plan• Transportation infrastructure investment was simply determined by economic develop-ment policy in the Plans

• Need to establish a comprehensive and systematic land use development plan• Imbalance in regional growth and urban problems • Establish the foundation for long-term economic growth by utilizing national land effi-ciently

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I. National Development Plan Need for Comprehensive National Transportation Master Plan


Background• The transportation plan has been a sub-set part of the plan in response to the high-level plan such as industrial area development plan, tourist area development plan, and social in-frastructure expansion plan.

• Transportation infrastructure investment was significantly increased

• Existing transportation plan, could not ade-quately cope with the issues.

• Not efficiently achieving national transporta-tion goals

• Balanced budgeting by region and category

National Transportation Master Plan• Aims to establish independent national trans-portation plan for increasing transportation projects and investment

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I. National Development Plan Project Evaluation before 1999

Limitation of Past Planning• Transportation investment in infrastructure was mostly tied to the national economic de-velopment plan

• Too much planned more than financial capability → most of planned transportation project was not actually constructed

Problems in Past Project Evaluation• The feasibility study was conducted by institute under line ministries• Planning duplicated functions and routes on different transportation mode• The feasibility study team now seemed heavily under the influence of relevant line min-istries → overestimated B/C ratio

• Hindering prioritizing project investment • Standardized guidelines and databases had not existed → varied by researching institute

11


Background• Strong and effective project evaluation study, to oversee the project selection process of the line ministries, was required

• Standardized transportation related database should be managed to enhance analytic con-formity and accuracy

Project Evaluation since 1999II. Transportation Project Evaluation in Planning

Preliminary Feasibility Study(PFS)• Analyzes project’s economic and policy feasibility and verifies its investment priority, ade-quate investment time, and financing methods

• Carried out under the supervision of the Minister of Strategy and Finance• Consisted of economic analysis, policy analysis, and multi-criteria analysis

Korean Transportation Database(KTDB)• Need to conduct reliable demand and benefits estimation done in PFS• Data for feasibility studies on transportation projects varied by research institute and ex-perts, which made feasibility study result less reliable

12


Preliminary Feasibility Study(PFS)• Prevent budgetary waste and contribute to enhancing the efficiency of financial manage-ment

• PFS is an evaluation of a project to produce information for budgetary decisions• Economic analysis

- Estimation of cost & benefit → B/C ratio, NPV• Policy analysis

- Examining effect of project in qualitative and quantitative terms• AHP

- Synthesize the economic and policy analysis


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Korean Transportation Database(KTDB)• To survey the operation of transportation facilities and modes, traffic volumes, and the transportation networks at the national level- To gather and analyze traffic data as database that allows jointly data such as O/D and networks to use for an efficient project evaluation.

• Prevented similar and duplicate surveys in line with the implementation of road and rail-road projects- Reducing related costs, as well as the utilization of future O/D and networks in the formu-lation of mid- and long-term master plan.


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Transportation Infrastructure Special FundIII. Financing Sources

Background• Stable funding sources are essential to increase the efficiency and procurement of trans-portation infrastructure investment.

Transportation infrastructure special fund• Use road, railway, airport, seaport and even metropolitan transportation infrastructure• This fund revenue sources are classified into transport and other taxes, non-tax revenues such as facility user chargers, and transfers from general accounts

Account Revenue Expenditure

RoadAccount

‒ Earmarked fuel tax‒ General tax‒ Passenger car excise

‒ Road construction, management operation, survey and research, and technology development‒ Investment and subsidies to public agencies

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Background• At the beginning of the 1990s, a serious shortage of infrastructure• Government has limit in budget that need to be allocated all kinds of sectors• Need to induce private sector participation in infrastructure investment

Requirement for PPP• Make legal & regulatory framework relevant PPP• Establish institute such as supervision and evaluation• Introduction competitive bidding system

Precaution • Minimum revenue guarantee(MRG)

- The government guarantees 90% of estimated revenue- Abuse by the private sector- In mid-2000, MRG was eliminated

Public-Private Partnership(PPP)III. Financing Sources

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Transportation masterplan• It should be established transportation masterplan considering the other plans such as horizon 2030, medium term development strategy 2010-2013, etc.

• Must establish a feasible plan considering government budget.

Project prioritigation• Establish method, such as PFS in Korea, to select prioritige projects.

Financing sources • Establish earmarked tax such as transportation infrastructure special fund.• Introduce PPP projects

IV. Implications

TransportationSituation & Alternatives Ⅲ

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Population & Urbanization

Total Urban Rural Urbanization

Total 311 159 151 51%Belize 89 65 24 73%Cayo 73 36 37 50%

Orange Walk 45 13 32 30%Stann Creek 32 9 23 28%

Corozal 40 20 20 25%Toledo 31 15 15 17%

Source : 2010 Population and Housing Census, Belize, 2010

Urbanization rate by regions (Unit : 1,000 persons)

I. General Situation

Ⅲ Transportation Situation & Alternatives

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Belize 301 312 322 333 325Growth Rate : 1.9%

2011

333

301

2007

1.9%

2010

322

2009

312

2008

325

Source : Belize Population and Housing Census, Belize, 2013

Population (Unit :1,000 persons)

Total population is 325 thousand persons in 2010 (Annual Growth Rate 1.9%) Urbanization rates are higher in Belize and Cayo districts

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Economic & Industrial Structure

Industrial structure : 67% of Tertiary, 21% of Secondary and 12% of Primary ⇒ Rapid growth in tertiary and lack of competitiveness in low secondary industries

Source : Abstract of Statistics Belize, Statistical Institute of Belize, 2012

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Primary Indus-

tries 310 304 316 282 301Secondary In-

dustries 312 327 422 463 524Tertiary Indus-

tries 1,294 1,401 1,466 1,575 1,658

Total 1,916 2,032 2,204 2,320 2,484

(Unit : Mill. BZD) Trend of Industrial structures

Tertiary 66.8%

Secondary 21.1%

Primary 12.1%

GDP : About 100mill. USD 14.5 in 2011 with 3.2% of annual growth rate ⇒ Relatively high growth rate, considering the global economic growth

14.012.8

2008

3.2%

2011

13.5

2010

13.6

2009

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GDP (100mill. USD)

12.8 13.6 13.5 14.0 14.5

Growth Rate : 3.2%

GDP per capita, PPP(USD) 4,099 4,233 4,049 4,057 4,059

2007Source : World Bank Data, World Bank, 2013

Gross Domestic Product

14.5

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Ⅲ Transportation Situation & Alternatives Import and Export Increase in export & import since 2009

⇒ Chronic trade deficit due to imbalance between import and export

2008 2009 2010 2011

Import (Mill. USD) 788 621 647 774

Export (Mill. USD) 480 384 476 603

Increase in export volumes of crude oil and bananas, decrease in sugar


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Growth Rate(%)

Crude Oil 89 143 231 121 201 22.8% Citrus Concentrate 109 117 113 99 82 -6.8% Bananas 51 42 66 67 80 12.2% Marine Products 86 42 44 49 61 -8.3% Sugar 101 88 71 89 59 -12.7% Others 102 76 60 77 77 13.7%

Crude Oil 36.0%

Citrus Concen-trate 14.7%Bananas 14.3%

Marine Products 10.8%

Sugar 10.5%

Others 13.7%

(Unit : Mill. BZD)

Trend of import and export

Major Export Products

Source : World Handbook, Korea Export-Import Bank, 2012

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International Passenger Arrivals Among international passenger arrivals, the highest portion is tourist

⇒ High potential to promote tour industry as a major industry


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Returning Residents 67 68 182 231 329

Tourist Visitors 817 888 994 1,041 950Business Visitors 10 9 9 9 11Transit Visitors 108 83 76 104 86Official Visitors 9 1 2 2 2

Others 12 9 11 41 129Total 1,023 1,059 1,273 1,428 1,507

(Unit : 1,000 passengers/year)

Passenger Arrivals by Category (2011)

Tourist 63.1%

Returning Res-idents 21.9%

Passenger Arrivals by Category

II. Transport Situation

The highest number of 735 thousand passengers arrives through Belize City Seaport


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Rate of 2011(%)

Philip Goldson Int. Airport 208 224 212 215 224 14.9Santa Elena, Corozal 84 82 188 237 340 22.6

Belize Western Border Sta. 162 141 154 184 192 12.7Belize City Seaport 555 597 705 779 735 48.8

Punta Gorda Seaport 12 13 12 11 11 0.7Dangriga Seaport 1 1 2 2 5 0.3

Total 1,023 1,059 1,273 1,428 1,507 100

(Unit : 1,000 passengers/year) Passenger arrivals by port of entry

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Tourist Arrivals

The vast majority (76.4%) of overnight tourist visitor comes through the Philip Goldson Inter-national Airport.

Source : 2012 Travel & Tourism Statistics Digest, Belize Tourism Board, 2013

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Rate of 2012(%)

Philip Goldson Int. Airport 183 178 168 172 182 212 76.4 Santa Elena, Corozal 23 24 21 25 29 30 10.8

Belize Western Border Sta. 36 33 33 35 28 25 9.0 Stann Creek (Southern) Seaport 1 1 1 2 4 3 1.2

Punta Gorda Seaport 9 9 9 8 8 7 2.6 Total 251 245 232 242 250 277 100

(Unit : 1,000 passengers/year) Overnight Tourist Arrivals by Port of Entry

Arrivals by port (2012)

PGIA 76.4%

SE 10.8%

BWBS 9.0%

Purpose Leisure Business Friends Religion NotStated Other Total

Proportion 87.9% 3.0% 4.1% 2.3% 0.1% 2.6% 100%

Tourist Arrivals by Category in 2012

Purpose of Visit (2012)

Leisure 87.9%


The primary purpose of visiting Belize is leisure activities with 87.9%.

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Tourist Arrivals

Trend of tourist in each historical site of maya2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average annual

Increasing Rate

Altun Ha 73,375 79,564 74,532 73,691 80,834 83,823 2.7%Cahal Pech 15,926 14,103 12,351 15,171 16,746 23,875 8.4%

Lamanai 29,301 31,922 24,057 29,870 39,508 42,483 7.7%Xunantunich 52,243 48,079 33,018 47,670 51,087 73,932 7.2%

Tunichil 10,698 12,006 3,344 9,752 14,816 19,387 12.6%TOTAL 214,107 215,075 166,711 200,448 229,768 274,764 5.1%


Altun Ha is the most visited site with 83,823 tourists among Maya sites. The highest annual increasing rate is 12.6% in Tunichil.

(Unit : No. of person/year)

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Private 85.1%

Goods 8.5% Public 6.4%

Vehicles Rate of Private car 85% and 66% of cars in Belize and Cayo districts

⇒ Rapid growth in vehicles but poor road conditions are not improved

No. of vehicles (2007)Public Service 3,612 (6.4%)

Private 47,725 (85.1%)Goods Vehicles 4,757 (8.5%)

Total 56,094 (100.0%)

(Unit : No. of Vehicles)

2004 2005 2006 2007 Rate of 2007(%)Corozal 5,221 5,501 5,977 6,390 11.4%

Orange Walk 5,558 5,534 5,982 6,090 10.9%

BelizeBelize City 15,740 16,189 16,854 16,830

38.5%Belize Rural 3,380 3,786 4,348 4,788San Pedro 1,436 1,643 1,716 -

Cayo Cayo Rural 6,867 7,170 7,766 8,110 27.5%Belmopan 4,881 5,088 5,965 7,281Stann Creek 3,102 3,082 3,232 4,015 7.2%

Toledo 2,115 2,318 2,387 2,590 4.6%Total 48,300 50,311 54,227 56,094 100.0%



(Unit : No. of Vehicles)

Motor vehicle licensed rate by type

No. of Vehicles by District

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Traffic Accidents Annual average increase rate is 7.5%, and needs urgent improvement on traffic safety

⇒ Increase in traffic accidents due to the high car ownership growth and poor road condition


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Growth Rate(%)

Killed 60 68 78 75 54 -2.6

Injured 593 954 782 726 817 8.3

Total 653 1,022 860 801 871 7.5

(Unit : No. of Accidents)


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Growth Rate(%)

Pedestrian 101 135 139 121 117 3.7%Passengers 262 446 338 307 362 8.4%

Cyclists 151 183 161 132 130 -3.7%Drivers 139 258 222 241 262 17.2%

Total 653 1022 860 801 871 7.5%


Due to the high increase in cars, accidents on drivers and passengers are particularly rising

Trend of traffic accidents

Trend of traffic accidents by type

653

1,022860 801

871

26


High traffic accidents in Cayo, Belize and Corozal districts, more than 3 accidents per 1,000 persons


2008 2009 2010 2011 per 1,000 persons (2011)

Corozal Fatal 7 18 7 4 3.1Injury 180 69 59 124Orange Walk

Fatal 7 11 5 4 1.8Injury 88 77 81 77

Belize Fatal 17 27 27 23 3.4Injury 311 284 244 282

Cayo Fatal 20 11 13 11 3.6Injury 258 243 247 253Stann Creek

Fatal 10 10 19 9 2.0Injury 85 65 57 56

Toledo Fatal 7 1 4 3 0.9Injury 32 44 38 25

Total Fatal 68 78 75 54 2.8Injury 954 782 728 817Source : Abstract of Statistics Belize, Statistical Institute of Belize, 2012

Trend of traffic accidents by regions

Traffic Accidents

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Traffic Accidents

Source : Global status report on road safety 2013, WHO, 2013Source : Global status report on road safety 2013, WHO, 2013

Nation Traffic death per 100,000 persons

Death per 100,000 cars

Bahamas 13.7 176.8Trinidad and Tobago 16.7 44.2

Barbados 7.3 64.9Venezuela 37.2 148.3

Panama 14.1 105.8Mexico 14.7 78.4

Costa Rica 12.7 94.5Republic of Suriname 19.6 102.4

Saint Lucia 14.9 106Colombia 15.6 201.7

St. Vincent and the Grenadines 4.6 32.4

(Unit : No. of person)

Nation Traffic death per 100,000 persons

Death per 100,000 cars

Cuba 7.8 226.3Dominican Republic 41.7 140.7

Jamaica 11.6 65.4Belize 16.4 87.6

Guyana 27.8 209.5El Salvador 21.9 150Guatemala 6.7 125.6Honduras 18.8 139.2Nicaragua 18.8 249.1Average 17.1 127.4

Accident distribution table of CARICOM members

Relatively low No. of traffic death in Belize as 16.4 person/100,000 persons and 87.6 person/100,000 cars, compared to CARICOM member countries with average of 17.1 person/100,000 persons and 127.4 per-son/100,000 cars.

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Road Four highways of 323 mile are paved They connect 6 principal cities including Belize City and Belmopan Apart from highways, only few major roads are paved

Source : Belize(concise Notes), Ministry of Trade, Investment Promotion, Private Sector Development and Consumer Protection Belmopan

ClassificationRoute

Length(mile)From To

Northern Highway Belize City Mexican border 92

Western Highway Belize City Banque Viejo 75

Hummingbird Highway Belmopan Dangriga 56

Southern Highway Dangriga Punta Gorda 100

Total 323

Highway situation

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Road

Source : GIS Data (Ministry of Natural resources in Belize)

Classification Length(mile)

1 Primary Road 443

2 Secondary Road 1,138

3 Major Road 1,492

4 Minor Road 1,646

5 Foot Paths 3,495

Total 8,213

Road length

The Belize roads on GIS data are classified into five roads by the hierarchical order. The length of primary road is 443 miles, providing inter-regional transportation netwroks.

Note : Primary road includes 4 Highways, Coastal Highway, Old Northern Highway, etc.

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Paved road rate

Source : World-factbook, CIA, 2013

Nation Paved road rate (%)Bahamas 60.0%

Trinidad and Tobago 51.1%Barbados 100.0%

Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 33.6%Panama 42.0%Mexico 36.4%

Costa Rica 26.0%Republic of Suriname 26.3%

Saint Lucia 70.0%Colombia 14.0%

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 70.0%

Nation Paved road rate (%)Cuba 49.0%

Dominican Republic 50.1%Jamaica 73.0%Belize 17.0%

Guyana 7.4%El Salvador 46.9%Guatemala 59.1%Honduras 22.8%Nicaragua 12.9%Average 43.4%

Relatively low rate of paved road in Belize as 17%, compared to CARICOM member countries with average rate of 43.4%.

Also low rate of paved road in Belize, compared to four similar GDP per capita countries with average rate of 38.9%. Need of road pavement for road user’s safety. ⇒

31


Airport

1 int’l airport (Philip Goldson), 7 main municipal airstrips and 7 secondary municipal airstrips ⇒ Poor conditions of many airstrips and lack of access roads

Source : Belize City Municipal Airport Project, Belize Airports Authority , 2009

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Philip Goldson Int’l Airport 208 224 212 215 224

International Passenger Arrivals (Unit : 1,000 passengers/year)

MainMunicipal

Airstrip

San Pedro Belize Municipal Placencia Dangriga Cay

Caulker Corozal Punta Gorda

18,300 17,334 6,880 6,261 3,949 3,012 2,846

SecondaryMunicipal

Airstrip

Tower Hill Central Farm Privacion Sarteneja Belmopan Melinda Big Creek

291 171 158 136 63 2 1

No. of Landings by Airstrips (08-09) (Unit : No. of Landing)

① San Pedro② Belize Municipal③ Placencia④ Dangriga⑤ CayCaulker⑥ Corozal⑦ PuntaGorda⑧ Tower Hill⑨ CentralFarm⑩ Privacion⑪ Sarteneja⑫ Belmopan⑬ Melinda⑭ Big Creek⑮ Agustine Pine Ridge

The highest travel volume is 54,118 passengers be-tween

Belize municipal and Placencia airstrips. The high no. of landings at airstrips: San Pedro and Belize municipal


Source : Belize City Municipal Airport Project, Belize Airports Authority , 2009

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Seaport

Cruise Ship Arrivals

Passenger arrivals by seaports

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Growth rate(%)

Belize City Seaport 555 597 705 779 735 7.3

Punta Gorda Seaport 12 13 12 11 11 -3.6

San Pedro Seaport - - - - - -

Dangriga Seaport 1 1 2 2 5 41.7

Total 568 611 719 792 751 7.2




The total No. of passenger arrival in 2011 is 751,000 passengers, and mostly through Belize City seaport.

The total No. of cruise ship passengers are 728,000. ⇒ Difficulty in approaching seaports by cruise-ship due to shallow water


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Growth rate(%)

Passenger 624 597 705 765 728 3.9

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Analysis of road network

Road

Travel time estimated by straight line distances and by actual road distances between main cities

⇒ Longer travel time spent by actual roads, compared to straight line distances for some cities

Note : The matrix data is based on Abstract of Statistics Belize (Statistical Institute of Belize, 2012)

Time matrix using straight distance Time matrix using actual road

Classifi-cation

Northern Border

Corozal Town

Orange Walk Town

Belize City

Belmo-pan

San Igna-cio

Western Border Dangriga Placencia Punta

Gorda

Northern Border - 11 51 118 152 175 188 180 235 285

Corozal Town 11 - 41 108 141 166 178 170 222 275

Orange Walk Town

51 41 - 81 101 125 137 137 186 236

Belize City 118 108 81 - 72 109 119 63 117 179

Belmo-pan 152 141 101 72 - 33 47 69 98 136

San Igna-cio 175 166 125 109 33 - 12 99 111 128

Western Border 188 178 137 119 47 12 - 104 110 120

Dangriga 180 170 137 63 69 99 104 - 56 122

Placencia 235 222 186 117 98 111 110 56 - 70

Punta Gorda 285 275 236 179 136 128 120 122 70 -

Classifi-cation

Northern Border

Corozal Town

Orange Walk Town

Belize City

Belmo-pan

San Igna-cio

Western Border Dangriga Placencia Punta

Gorda

Northern Border - 13 65 158 244 273 286 339 368 502

Corozal Town 13 - 53 145 232 260 273 326 360 490

Orange Walk Town

65 53 - 93 179 207 221 273 309 437

Belize City 158 145 93 - 87 115 128 181 247 345

Belmo-pan 244 232 179 87 - 37 50 94 164 258

San Igna-cio 273 260 207 115 37 - 13 131 203 295

Western Border 286 273 221 128 50 13 - 144 217 308

Dangriga 339 326 273 181 94 131 144 - 88 184

Placencia 368 360 309 247 164 203 217 88 - 171

Punta Gorda 502 490 437 345 258 295 308 184 171 -

(Unit : min) (Unit : min)

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Analysis of road network

Road

Analysis on degree of detour by straight line distances and actual road

distances It shows detour degree is 289% between Belize City and Dangriga

due to no direct roads.

Classification NorthernBorder

Corozal Town

Orange Walk Town Belize City Belmopan San Ignacio Western

Border Dangriga Placencia Punta Gorda

Northern Bor-der - 117 129 133 161 156 152 188 156 176

Corozal Town 117 - 127 134 164 156 154 192 162 178

Orange Walk Town 129 127 - 114 178 166 161 199 166 185 Belize

City 133 134 114 - 121 106 107 289 211 192 Belmopan 161 164 178 121 - 111 105 136 167 190

San Ignacio 156 156 166 106 111 - 110 133 184 230 Western Border 152 154 161 107 105 110 - 139 198 256

Dangriga 188 192 199 289 136 133 139 - 158 151 Placencia 156 162 166 211 167 184 198 158 - 244

Punta Gorda 176 178 185 192 190 230 256 151 244 -

(Unit : %) Degree of detour


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Problems and improvements

Airport Lack of capacity and poor safety conditions Limited roads

Seaport

Inherent inefficiency of ports due to shallow wa-ter

Poor conditions

Road High degree of detour between some cities,

imbalance between regions Shortage of paved roads and poor conditions

Need for a few new road net-

works Existing roads improvement

Some expansion, safety measures

Existing access roads improvement

A new port or feeder service ex-pansion

Existing ports improvement

Logistics No logistics facilities, inefficient logistics New logistics facilities in northern

& western borders and Belize port

TouristAttraction Poor access roads to tourist attraction

New roads and existing access roads improvement

36


SWOT Analysis

Rich in agricultural products New oil production by exploiting oil-

fields Various historical sites of ancient ruins Natural resources in the Caribbean sea

Beneficiary of the Caribbean Basin Initia-tive

Possibility of freight industry develop-ment

Tourist industry development by foreign funds Increase in exports by new oil production

Lack in manufacturing sector due to small

domestic markets Chronic trade deficits Lack of labor and professional man-

power Poor transportation infrastructure

Natural hazards vulnerability High dependency on foreign trades Decrease in tourists due to global financial recession Poor security by high crime occurrence

S WO T

Strength Weakness

Opportunity Threats

37


Preparing Horizon 2030 (MED)

Belize Medium Term Development Strategy 2010-2013 (MED) Completion of the southern highway

The Belize/Guatemala border road project

Completion of the Corozal border crossing reconstruction project

Rehabilitation of sugar feeder roads

Upgrade of the northern highway from the Haulover Creek bridge to its

junction with the airport cut-off road to a four-lane roadway

Construction of the Kendall and Mullins river bridges

Source : Final Report: Preparing Horizon 2030, Ministry of Economic Development, June 2011

Source : Belize Medium Term Development Strategy 2010-2013, Ministry of Economic Development, June 2010

III. Related Plans

Resilient economy for all businesses and entrepreneurs using appropriate

technology to increase productivity and competitiveness in an environmentally

sustainable way

⇒ Develop & Invest Infrastructure (Roads, Bridges, Utilities, Tour)

38


The National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan 2030 (MOT)

Road to Caracol development

Placencia marina development

National caving Trail - Cayo national reef trail – Reef

Port Loyola development Source : National Sustainable Masterplan for BELIZE 2030, Ministry of Tourism, June 2011

Ministry of Works & Transport Belmopan (MOW) Upgrading of Caracol road to paved standard (83km) Paved upgrading of the Manatee road (59km) New Haulover Bridge (130m)Source : Upgrading of Caracol Road to paved standard, Paved upgrading of the Manatee road, New Haulover Bridge, Ministry of Works & Transport Belmopan

Belize Municipal Airstrip Expansion Program (BAA) Improvement and expansion of 7 Belize municipal airstrips within Belize City, San Pedro, Dangriga, Caye Caulker, Placencia, Corozal and Punta Gorda including 7 new airstrips sectionsSource : Municipal Airstrip Expansion Program Final Report, Belize Airport Authority, September 2009

Belize city cruise hub development

Destination development - Stann Creek

Central farm regional airport development

Port Loyola development

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The National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan 2030 (MOT)

Road to Caracol development

Placencia marina development

National caving Trail - Cayo national reef trail – Reef

Port Loyola development Source : National Sustainable Masterplan for BELIZE 2030, Ministry of Tourism, June 2011

Ministry of Works & Transport Belmopan (MOW) Upgrading of Caracol road to paved standard (83km) Paved upgrading of the Manatee road (59km) New Haulover Bridge (130m)Source : Upgrading of Caracol Road to paved standard, Paved upgrading of the Manatee road, New Haulover Bridge, Ministry of Works & Transport Belmopan

Belize Municipal Airstrip Expansion Program (BAA) Improvement and expansion of 7 Belize municipal airstrips within Belize City, San Pedro, Dangriga, Caye Caulker, Placencia, Corozal and Punta Gorda including 7 new airstrips sectionsSource : Municipal Airstrip Expansion Program Final Report, Belize Airport Authority, September 2009

Belize city cruise hub development

Destination development - Stann Creek

Central farm regional airport development

Port Loyola development

40


Classifi cation Infrastructure Name Section/ Location Remarks

Com-ple tion

RoadAnd

Bridge

New Haulover Bridge Belize City~ Aviation Access road

Reconstruction(130m) -

Chetumal Link Road Fabers Rd~Western Hwy New construction -

Paved upgrading of the Manatee road

Link section from North to south of Be-

lize Road Improvement(59km) -

Caracol Road Georgeville~Caracol Ruin Site

Road pavement & ex-pansion(83km) 2015

Aviation

Corozal airstrip Corozal airstripRunway widening to 18m 2021

Taxiway improvement 2024

San Pedro Airport San Pedro Airport Taxiway improvement 2025

Belize Airport Belize Airport Airstrips expansion Access road -

Cay Caulker Cay CaulkerRunway widening to 18m 2022


Dangriga DangrigaRunway widening Structure alteration 2021


Agustine Pine RidgeMunicipal airstrip Cayo New construction 2018

Placencia Placencia Taxiway improvement 2026

Punta Gorda Punta Gorda Taxiway improvement 2025

PortBig Creek Port Big Creek Port Container expansion -

Commerce Bight Port Commerce Bight Port New construction -

1

A

2

3

4

B

C

D

F

GH

b

E

a

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Goals Planning efficient transport system moving goods and people Promoting achievement of the millennium development goals for effective poverty reduction Improving living conditions through better transportation services Securing benefits for future generation through sustainable transportation development Driving low-carbon and green transportation

Residents

Better road quality of transportation ser-vices

- Accessibility - Safety More employment opportunities for Be-

lizeanTourists

Supply of more tourist attractions Better road and air accessibility for tourists

Freight Provision of logistics facilities in northern

and western border crossings for agriculture and other products

Ⅲ Transportation Situation & Alter-natives

IV. Alternatives

Objectives

Selection of Alternative Arterial Roads - To select by regional and functional characteristics - To secure the efficiencies of regional linkage and mobility on alternatives

Arterial Road

Survey and analysis for degree of detour by district

STEP 2Selection by considering geological condition, construction cost and existing roads utilization

STEP 1 Selection by over 160% degree of curve

Selection of final alternative route


42

Alternative Selection Process

Arterial Road

STEP 1Selected 10 arterial routes by over 160 % degree of detour among connect -ing roads between major cities.

• Selection route ② [ between route ① and ② ]- To activate trade (Cayo, Northern Orange Walk Mexico) and to transport ∼ rich crops in Orange Walk- Take advantage of utilizing existing Northern Highway.

• Selection route ③ [ among route ③, ④, ⑤ and ⑥ ]- To promote tourism vitalizations from Southern to Cayo, Northern area Easier and cheaper to construct than other routes.

• Selection route ⑨ [among route ⑦, ⑧, ⑨ and ⑩]- To contribute to the tourism vitalizations and logistic cost reduction by connecting Southern coastal, Belize City or northern regions-To improve the existing coastal road from flood damages

STEP 2Selected 3 arterial routes by geological condition, construction cost and ex-isting road utilization.


43

Alternative Selection Process

Selection of Alternative Access roads - Major role in attracting tourist to Maya historical sites. - Needs an access road improvements for the connection that smooth tourist attractions routes

Survey and analysis for Maya historical sites demand

STEP 2Selection by considering tourists and acces-sibility

STEP 1 Selection of 11 Maya historical sites

Selection of final alternative access route


44

Access Road Alternative Selection Process

STEP 1Selection of popular 11 Maya sites by number of visitors statistics refering to 「 2012 Travel & Tourism Statistics Digest 」

STEP 2 Selection by considering tour site characteristics and accessibility

• Selection Access road ① ( Altun Ha)- Most popular Maya historical sites among tourists. - Geographical advantage near Belize City• Selection Access road ⑦ (Caracol)- Poor conditions in access road with long passing time - Caracol historical site is far more comprehensive than the others- Part of the Belize national tourism master plan of Caracol access road improvement• Access road ② ⑥∼- Good accessibility because of near arterial road and well condition in route alignment• Access road⑧ ⑪ ∼- Not in urgent need to improve due to low rate of tourist visits less than

10%

Ⅱ Transportation Situation & Alter-natives

45

Access Road Alternative Selection Process

Logistic & Industrial Facilities


46

• Selection (Northern Logistic & Industrial Facilities)- At Mexico border area, Role of the center for the Mexico international trade and Logistic hub city for Northern Belize

• Selection (Belize Logistic & Industrial Facilities)- Role of large scale logistic complex for seaborne trade and outpost for the Latin American Countries

• Selection (Western Logistic & Industrial Facilities)- At Guatemala border area, Role of the logistic transportation hub for inland countries and Logistic hub for Eastern Belize

STEP 1 Possibility of the advantage for transit trade role in the geological aspect

STEP 2 High accessibility to effective logistic transportation


47


Arterial Roads Upgrading Arterial Road : Hope Creek ∼ La Democracia* (Length 36 miles)≒ New Arterial Road 1 : San Isidro Ringtail∼ (Length 55miles)≒ New Arterial Road 2 : Blackman Eddy

∼ Orange Walk Town * (Length 70miles)≒ → Travel time reduction among major cities

Access Roads

Northern and western border, and Belize City New Logistics & Industrial Facilities

Upgrading Road 1 : Sand Hill Altunha ∼ (Length 12miles)≒Upgrading Road 2: Caracol Georgeville∼ (Length 38miles)≒

1

2

3

A

B

* Source : New and Alternative route according to the local opinions

New Transportation Network

New Port and Airports by existing plans

48


Upgrading Coastal Road : Hope Creek (near Dangriga) La Democracia(George Price Highway)∼1

To pass through the southern region detouring the northern region To improve the Coastal road for increasing accessibility to Dangriga, Placencia To attract the tourist from Belize city to Dangriga, Placencia and reduce the passing time

Detail of Arterial Roads Arterial Roads

49


New Arterial Road1 : San Isidro(Southern Highway) Ringtail (Hummingbird Highway)∼2

To connect from Hummingbird Highway to Southern Highway To increase accessibility to southern regions including Belmopan and northern area and develop into a hub city

Detail of Arterial Roads Arterial Roads Bridge

• Name : Yanggu bridge• Length : 393m• Width : 8.4m• Lane : Two-lane• Bridge Type : Steel Plate Girder

Tunnel• Name : Baehuryeong Tunnel• Length : 5.1km• Width : 11m• Lane : Two-lane• Tunnel Type : NATM

50


New Arterial Road2 : Blackman Eddy (George Price Highway) Orange Walk Town∼3

To connect from Blackman Eddy in Cayo to Orange Walk Town in Orange Walk for adjacent agriculture districts The accessibility of Belmopan, capital of the country to the border region of Mexico has been improved

Detail of Arterial Roads Arterial Roads

51


Upgrading Altun Ha Road : Sand Hill (Northern Highway) Altun ha∼A

One of the most visited Maya historical sites among tourists Geographical advantage near Belize City and the potential to reduce travel

time and to secure tourist's safety by access road improvement

Detail of Access Roads Access Roads

52


Upgrading Caracol Road : Caracol in Cayo D. Georgeville(George Price Highway)∼B

Needs on improvements of access road function due to location in the highlands Improvement of the access road to Caracol tourism region by road pavement and attraction to tourists by reducing the passing time.

Detail of Access Roads Access Roads

53

Ⅴ Evaluation & Transportation Master Plan

II. Economic analysis – cost estimation Method of ecoenvironmental pavement

• Petroleum fuel cost reduction of 30 35% ∼than SMA

• Emission CO₂ & greenhouse gas reduction by 35%

• Safety improvement by hydroplaning removal• Minimizing effect of ecosystem by noise reduction• Flood damage mitigation by rainwater pene-tration into the ground evenly

Middle temperature asphalt pave-ment

Porous low noise asphalt pavement Pavement of SMA(Stone Mastic Asphalt)

Pavement of middle temperature Aspalt

SMA(Stone Mastic Asphalt) pavement road

Porous low noise pavement road

Ⅱ Transportation Situation & Alternatives

Logistic Facilities Concept

• Logistic complex is composed of logistic and supporting facilities - Logistic facilities: Logistic Terminal, Warehouse, Concentration and Delivery Complex, Wholesale-Retail Center and Agricultural & Marine Products Wholesale Market - Supporting facilities: Information, Finance, Education / Research, Resident Convenient Facilities ▶ Logistic cost reduction effect by improving connectivity and distribution structure system among logistic facilities

54

Logistic Facilities Function Logistic Facilities Plan

Location Size

Northern Logistic & Industrial Facilities

Northern Belize, Mexico Border 13,000 ㎡

Belize Logistic & Industrial Facilities

Eastern Belize, Near Belize Port 37,000 ㎡

Western Logistic & Industrial Facilities

Western Belize,Guatemala Border 7,000 ㎡

Processing

Marketing

CustomsClearance

Collection/ Delivery

DistributionFunction

Storage

Source: Construction cost is based on F/S for logistic center and facil-ity construction of smaller businesses, KOSBI, 2013

Logistic Facilities

Future Demand ForecastingⅣ

56

I. Current O/D & Network

Ⅳ Future Demand Forecasting

Total number of Zone : 88 Urban : 8 towns Rural : 60 villages more than 1,000 persons in 2010 Tour places : 20

•Mayan sites : 12 - Caracol, Altun Ha, San Pedro, Caye Caulker, Cahal Pech, Xunantunich, Nim Li Punit, Lubaabntun, Cerros, El Pilar, Barton Creek, Tunichil

• National parks : 6 - Guanacaste national park, Crooked tree wildlife sanctuary, Cockscomb basin wildlife sanctuary, Blue Hole national monument, Half Moon Caye national monument, St. Her-mans Blue Hole national park

• Other tour places : 2 - Caves Branch, Lamanai

Domestic airports : 0• All 12 airports are close to towns

Zonal system

57


District Urban Rural Tour place TotalCorozal 1 14 2 17

Orange Walk 1 12 1 14Belize 1 8 5 14Cayo 3 15 8 26

Stann Creek 1 8 2 11Toledo 1 3 2 6Total 8 60 20 88

Zone by district• Cayo : 26

- Belmopan, Benque Viejo(Western border), Cahal Pech, St. Hermans Blue Hole national park, etc.

•Belize : 14- Belize City, Ladyville(PGS international aiport), San Pedro, Blue Hole national monument etc.

I. Current O/D & Network Zonal system

58


Trip generation by zone• GDP per capita in Belize in 2010 and that in Korea in 1988 are similar.

- Belize USD 4,349, Korea USD 4,548• Number of vehicle per capita in Belize in 2011 and that in Korea in 1992 are similar.

- Belize 0.159, Korea 0.160• Belize’s GDP per capita and vehicle per capita are similar to Korea in the late 80s and early 90s.

• Therefore trip generation per capita in Belize is assumed to be that in Korea in the late 80s and early 90s.

• In 1985, trip generation per capita in Seoul is 2.04• Trip generation per capita in Belize is assumed to be 2.00.• Intra-zonal trips should be excluded.• An area similar to Belize is Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do in Korea.

- Belize 22,966km2, Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do in Korea 22,805km2

- No. of Zone : Belize 49, Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do 44• The ratio of intra-zonal trip is 90%.• Finally, trip generation per capita of Belize is assumed to be 0.20.

I. Current OD & Network OD – Local resident

59


Trip distribution by zone• Model : Gravity model• Data : population by zone in 2010, distance between zone

TripCorozal Orange Walk Belize Cayo Stann Creek Toledo

TotalCorozal San

Narciso … Orange Walk

Trial Farm … Belize

City Ladyville … Belmopan San Ig-nacio

Benque Viejo … Dangriga … Punta

Gorda …

Corozal

Corozal … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 2,596San Narciso … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 611

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

Orange Walk

Orange Walk … … … … 3,313 … … … … … … … … … … … … 3,459

Trial Farm … … … 3,313 … … … … … … … … … … … … … 1,076

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

Belize

Belize City … … … … … … … 684 … 279 … … … … … … … 14,426

Ladyville … … … … … … 684 … … … … … … … … … … 1,377

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

Cayo

Belmopan … … … … … … 279 … … … … … … … … … … 3,515

San Ignacio … … … … … … … … … … … 133 … … … … … 2,647

Benque Viejo … … … … … … … … … … 133 … … … … … … 1,551

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

Stann

Creek

Dangriga … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 2,420

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

ToledoPunta Gorda … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 1,350

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

Total 2,596 611 … 3,459 1,076 … 14,426 1,377 … 3,515 2,647 1,551 … 2,420 … 1,350 … 64,906

(Unit : trip/day)

I. Current OD & Network OD – Local resident

60


International airport Road Seaport

TotalPGIA Northern

borderWestern border Subtotal Belize City

(Cruise ship)Punta Gorda Dangriga Subtotal

Person(year) 181,996 28,710 27,797 56,507 727,878 7,633 4,127 739,638 978,141Rate(%) 18.6 2.9 2.8 5.7 74.4 0.8 0.4 75.6 100

Source : Statistical Institute of Belize, 2012, Abstract of Statistics 2012.

Trip generation of tourist• Cruise ship tourist and overnight tourist in 2012 : 『 Visits to Destinations 2006-12 』 , 『 2002-2012 Tourism Summary Indicators 』

- Cruise ship tourist 1,755/day, overnight tourist 759/day• In the last five years, trip generation by one overnight tourist is 1.7 : 『 Visits to Destina-tions 2006-12 』

• That by one cruise ship tourist is 0.6 : 『 2002-2012 Tourism Summary Indicators 』• In the last five years, average length of stay of overnight tourist is 7.5days : 『 Visits to Destinations 2006-12 』 (Belize, 2013)

- Overnight tourist travels around 5.5 days except two days for entry and exit.• Entry points 6

- International airport is 18.6%, road 5.7%, seaport 75.6%- Entry point is close to zones.

• Add tourist OD to nearby zones.

I. Current OD & Network OD – Tourist

61


Trip distribution of overnight tourist• All overnight tourists are assumed to travel by bus.• Attraction by overnight tourist: 『 Visits to Destinations 2006-12 』 (Belize, 2013)

- Same rate assumed• Main tour places

- Ambergris Caye 26.4%, Belize District 17.7%, San Ignacio/Cayo 14.8%

Ambergris Caye Belize District San Ignacio/Cayo Etc.

Rate(%) 26.4 17.7 14.8 41.1

Source : 2002-2012 Tourism summary indicators


62


Trip distribution of cruise ship tourist•Attraction by cruise ship tourist : 『 2002-2012 Tourism Summary Indicators 』 (Belize, 2013)

- Same rate assumed• Main tour places

- Caves Branch 25.4%, Altun Ha 16.1%, Xunantunich 14.2%

Caves Branch Altun Ha Xunantunich Etc.

Rate(%) 25.4 16.1 14.2 44.3

Source : 2002-2012 Tourism summary indicators


63


Tourist OD by zone Destination

Origin

Corozal Orange Walk Belize Cayo Stann Creek Toledo

TotalSan Pedro

Northern border Cerros Lamani PGIA Belize

Caver Branc

hAltun Ha … Xunantu

nich … Placenia … Punta Gorda …

Corozal

San Pedro … 105 … … 666 … … … … … … … … … 916

Northern border 105 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 382

Cerros … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 96

Orange Walk Lamani … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 108

Belize

PGIA 666 … … … … … 132 132 … … … … … … … 2,421

Belize … … … … … … … 911 … 804 … … … … … 2,766

Caver Branch … … … … 132 … … … … … … … … … … 182

Altun Ha … … … 132 911 … … … … … … … … … 1,093

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

CayoXunantunich … … … … 804 … … … … … … … … … … 882

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

Stann

Creek

Placenia … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 224

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

ToledoPunta Gorda … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 102

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

Total 916 382 96 108 2,421 2,766 182 1,093 … 882 … 224 … 102 … 11,698

(Unit : trip/day)


64


Necessary data• Frequency & number of air & cruise ship passenger, GRDP of San Pedro & Caye caulker, oc-cupancy rate of air

• Belize has not established above data mentioned.• And, total number of air passenger from local resident has not existed in Belize • Thus, we established using daily average tourist. Trip generation by zone• The total air passenger is assumed as daily average tourist in San Pedro, Blue Hole, Caye caulker

• The total air passengers by local residents and tourists- 5,780 airport passengers per day

I. Current OD & Network OD – Air passenger

65


Source : Flightstats Homepage, http://www.flightstats.com/go/Home/home.do

Destination Origin Average daily service frequency Rate(%)

San Pedro

Belize City Municipal 7 14.6

Caye Caulker 31 64.6Corozal 10 20.8Total 48 -

Caye CaulkerSan Pedro 31 81.6

Belize City Municipal 7 18.4Total 38 -

Belize City MunicipalSan Pedro 6 50.0

Caye Caulker 6 50.0Total 12 -

Trip distribution• Based on the location of airport and service frequency of airplane• Service frequency of San Pedro airport 48

-Caye Caulker 64.6%, Corozal 20.8%, Belize City 14.6%• Air passenger O/D is assumed that it is distributed using service frequency rate• Tourists through road entry are assumed that use nearest airport.


66


Air Passenger OD by zone Destination

Origin

San Pedro Corozal Northern border

Belize City municiple

Caye cauker

Blue Hole national

monument

Half Moon Caye

national monument

Western border

Punta Gorda Dangriga Total

San Pedro … … … … 306 … … … … … 1,374

Corozal … … … … … … … … … … 179

Northern border … … … … … … … … … … 294

Belize City municiple … … … … … … … … … … 293

Caye cauker 306 … … … … 98 … … … … 501

Blue Hole national monument … 98 … … … … … … … … 1368

Half Moon Caye national monument … … … … … … … … … … 1367

Western border … … … … … … … … … … 284

Punta Gorda … … … … … … … … … … 78

Dangriga … … … … … … … … … … 42

Total 1,374 179 294 293 501 1368 1.367 284 78 42 5,780

(Unit : trip/day)


67


Level of road• Highways, major roads, minor roads

Assumption• Lane

- Highways and major roads : two lane in one direction- Minor roads : one lane in one direction

• Capacity of road- Paved road in highway and major road : 1,000 passenger car/hour/lane- Unpaved road in major road : 300 passenger car/hour/lane- Unpaved road in minor road : 100 passenger car/hour/lane

• Free flow speed- Paved road in highway and major road : 50mile/h- Unpaved road in major road : 20mile/h- Unpaved road in minor road : 10mile/h

I. Current OD & Network Network

68


ArcGIS EMME/2

I. Current OD & Network Network - road

69


EMME/3

I. Current OD & Network Network - airport

70


Data• Total number of trips by passenger car and intercity bus• Service frequency of intercity bus by route

Passenger car• Load factor in passenger car in Korea

- In 1999 1.9, In 2001 2.0- It is assumed to be 2.0

Intercity bus• Load factor in bus in Korea

- In 1999 22.0- It is assumed to be 50.0

Tourist• Load factor in bus

- It is assumed to be 25.0

I. Current OD & Network Modal split

71


Service frequency of intercity bus• Company : 12

- Express 2, regular 9, shuttle 1• Most routes are centered in Belize City• Service frequency by bus type

- Express 3, regular 39, shuttle 3 • Service frequency by route

- Belize City ~ Northern border 18/day- Belize City ~ Punta Gorda 12/day

From ToService fre-

quency(one direction)

ExpressBelmopan Belize City 2Belize City Punta Gorda 1

Regular

Belize City Northern border 18Belize City Punta Gorda 12Dangriga Placencia 3

Belize City Flores 3Belize City Chetumal 3

Shuttle Placencia Plantation Area 3Total 45


72


Total trips by intercity bus• Service frequency of intercity bus considering round trip: 90• Passengers in intercity bus 50.0• Trips by intercity bus: 90 50.0 = 4,500

Modal split of passenger car and intercity bus• Total trips : 76,604 (local residents trip 64,906, tourist trip 11,698)• All tourist assumed to use buses.• Modal split of passenger car : 78.9%, intercity bus 21.1%

Passenger car Intercity bus Total

Trip(per day) 60,406 16,198 76,604

Rate(%) 78.9 21.1 100


73


I. Current OD & Network Result of assignment - road

74


I. Current OD & Network Result of assignment - road

75


Highways volume around Belmopan & San Ignacio•Compared with 『 The city of Belmopan Transportation Assessment Inception Report 』(Beca 2010), 『 San Ignacio / Santa Elena Transportation Assessment Inception Report 』(Beca, 2010)

I. Current OD & Network Model calibration - road

76


I. Current OD & Network Result of assignment – air passenger

77


Future population estimation• Assumed to be having similar growing patterns in last 10 years• Average annual population growth 3.26% from 2001 to 2010

2000 2010 2018 2020 2030

Population 248,916 324,528 419,478 447,274 616,445

Future GDP per capita estimation• Assumed to be having similar growing patterns in last 10 years• Average annual GDP growth 3.64% from 2001 to 2010

2000 2010 2018 2020 2030Real GDP

(USD thousand)(constant 2000)

831,750 1,221,053 1,530,100 1,643,519 2,349,897

GDP per capita(USD)(constant 2000) 3,330 3,542 3,648 3,675 3,812

II. Future OD & Network OD – Local resident

78


Future local O/D estimation• Model : Double-log regression model • Independent variables : population, GDP per capita

- where, is total trip in t year, , is population in t year, is GDP per capita in t year

2000 2010 2018 2020 2030Population(person) 248,916 324,528 419,478 447,274 616,445

GDP per capita(USD) 3,330 3,542 3,648 3,675 3,812Total trip(trip/day) - 64,906 78,298 82,058 130,741

Parameter -0.00895 0.7 0.27

Future local O/D estimation result• Total trip is increased each year.• In 2018 74,994 trip/day, in 2020 77,027trip/day, in 2030 87,983trip/day

II. Future OD & Network OD – Local resident

79


Future tourist OD estimation• In 『 National sustainable tourism masterplan for Belize 2030 』 (Belize tourism board, 2011)

- Growth rate : cruise ship tourist 3.68%, overnight tourist 3.8%- Trip distribution is assumed the same as the current

2010 2018 2020 2030

Cruise tourist(day)

tourists(person/day) 2,015 2,595 2,790 4,004

Trip(trip/day) 1,209 1,557 1,674 2,402

Overnight tourist(day)

tourists(person/day) 665 863 966 1,351

Trip(trip/day) 1,131 1,467 1,642 2,297

Total trip(trip/day) 11,698 15,121 16,581 23,496

II. Future OD & Network OD – Tourist

80


Future air passenger OD estimation• Growth rate : assumed the same as the tourist

- Trip distribution is assumed the same as the current

2010 2018 2020 2030Total trip(trip/day) 5,780 7,789 8,393 12,186

II. Future OD & Network OD – Air passenger

81


Road • Existing network + planned network• Reflect alternatives on each target year

Network establishment• 2018, 2020, 2030

Project Target year

New roadSouthern Arterial road 2020Northern Arterial road 2020

Upgrading roadCoastal road 2020

Altun Ha road 2020Caracol road 2020

II. Future OD & Network Network

82


Road • Road alternatives changes should be applied on network.

• Free flow speed & road capacity is reflect as higher value

Before AfterCapacity(pcphpl)

Speed(mile/h)

Capacity(pcphpl)

Speed(mile/h)

Coastal road 100 10 1,000 50

Southern arterial road - - 1,000 50

Northern Arterial road - - 1,000 50

Altun Ha road 100 10 300 20

Caracol road 100 10 300 20

II. Future OD & Network Network

83


Future modal split -road• Future modal split rate is assumed the same as the current

2011 2018 2020 2030

Total trip(trip/day) 76,604 93,419 98,638 127,237

Passenger car trip(trip/day) 60,406 73,798 77,558 99,241

Intercity bus trip(trip/day) 16,198 19,621 21,081 27,996

II. Future OD & Network Modal split


84

Upgrading Coastal road• In 2030, from 45 veh/day to 691 veh/day• Increasing more than 646 veh/day

Upgrading Caracol road•Tourists of Caracol are assumed that of Xu-nantunich.

• In 2030, from 61 veh/day to 1,735 veh/day Upgrading Altun Ha road

•Traffic volume in Altun Ha road is increased twice.

• In 2030, from 338 veh/day to 1,871 veh/day

II. Future OD & Network Result of forecast road

85


Ari passenger• All airway routes have increased demand.• This is mainly resulted from air passenger O/D is established by overnight tourist.

II. Future OD & Network Result of forecast air passenger

86


Forecast freight demand• Belize has not measured freight transportation related data.• Belize port can be toughly evaluated by port related research from 『 Assessment of Port performance and Port Connectivity study in Central America 』 (IDB, 2013)

Port location• Low productivity than other neighboring countries

• Santo Tomas de Castilla port(Guatemala) & Castilla port(Houndras) has good geographic positions, which are directly connected by land routes.

• Most of international freight primarily is gone through Guatemala & Houndras for transshipment rather than Belize.

II. Future OD & Network Result of forecast freight

87


International trade volume(?)• In 2010, international trade volume of Belize

-Panama 14TEU, Dominican Republic 5TEU, Houndras 4TEU Strategy for the port

• Due to its nature and the size of its operation, the widening of the Canal will have little impact on the Port of Belize.

• Trade to Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras will be cheaper by land if land connectivity and security increases.

• Focus on enhancing the port efficiency• Investment on road can be more efficient way to enhance trading industry.

II. Future OD & Network Result of forecast freight

Evaluation &TransportationMaster PlanⅤ


89

I. Evaluation methodology Evaluation process

Economic analysis

Policy analysis

Traffic volume, time value,

oil price

Benefit estimation

Cost estimation

- Time savings- Vehicle operating cost

savings

- Design/Supervision cost

- Construction cost- Operating cost

- National development agenda or Consistency with high-level plans

- Willingness to implement project

- Regional economic impacts

Multi-Criteria Analysis(Analysis Hierarchy Process)

Cost-benefit analysis


90

II. Economic analysis

Set up analysis period & social discount rate• 30 years since opening• Social discount rate

- Social discount rate is same real discount rate- It estimated by using weight average loan interest and inflation rate- It using that of Central Bank of Belize 8.91%- It using that of World Bank 11.01%- It using that of IMF 10.56%- Assumed that 10.00%

　 Weighted average loan interest rate Inflation rate Real discount rate

Central Bank of Belize1) 10.33% 1.30% 8.91%

World Bank2) 12.45% 1.30% 11.01%

IMF3) 12.00% 1.30% 10.56%1) Central Bank of Belize, 2013, 『 2012 Annual report & statement of accounts』2) World bank, http://www.worldbank.org/3) IMF, 2013, 『 IMF country report』 , No. 13/227

91


Earth Work & Bridge• Use of local data

- The data provided by local government Tunnel

•Use of proportion of Korea tunnel/bridge construction cost, and Belize bridge construction cost

- Belize tunnel construction cost is calculated by the proportion of Korea tunnel/bridge construction cost, and Belize bridge construction cost 』 The unit price of Korea bridge and tunnel(Bridge: 311 million Won/ ㎞ , Tunnel: 500 million Won/ ㎞ ), The proportion of Tunnel/Bridge 62.2%(=311/500) 』 - Highway Work Manual, MoLIT, 2013

Classification Unit price

Earthwork 0.8 Mill. USD/mile

Bridge 35,000 USD/m

Tunnel 35.0 Mill. USD/mile

Earthwork, Bridge, Tunnel construction unit price based on the local data

II. Economic analysis – cost estimation Basic premise of construction cost estimate


92

Route alignment• To figure out the topography and hydrosphere and select routes considering the future na-tional development plan and logistic industry development.

Capacity of logistic facilities (Korea) Capacity of logistic facilities (Belize)

Construction cost for logistic facilities• To apply the Korea logistic facility construction cost of USD750 per 1 ㎡ .

*Source : Construction cost is based on F/S for logistic center and facility, construction of smaller businesses, KOSBI, 2013

Total area of logistic facilities* 9,267,000 ㎡

No. of population 51,156,000 person

The area of logistic facilities per population 0.18 ㎡ /person

No. of population 316,000 person

Planning capacity of logistic facilities 57,244 ㎡

Cost estimate of logistic facilities• Capacity of logistic facilities

- To apply the Korea logistic facility area unit cost of 0.18 ㎡ /person, and then estimating the Belize logistic facility capacity.

II. Economic analysis – cost estimation Basic premise of construction cost estimate

93


Upgrading Coastal Road : Hope Creek (near Dangriga) La Democracia(George Price Highway)∼1

ClassificationNew Road Pavement & Alignment Im-

provement Total

Length Cost Length Cost Length Cost

Structure

Earthwork - - 36.2mile 22.0Mill. USD 36.2mile 22.0Mill. USD

Bridge - - 0.088mile(140m, 6EA) 4.9Mill. USD 0.088mile

(140m, 6EA) 4.9Mill. USD

Tunnel - - - - - -

Total - - 36.3mile 26.9Mill. USD 36.3mile 26.9Mill. USD


provement Total


Structure

Earthwork 49.1mile 39.3Mill. USD 1.6mile 1.0 Mill. USD 50.7mile 40.3Mill. USD

Bridge 0.075mile(120m, 4EA) 4.2Mill. USD - - 0.075mile


Tunnel 3.9mi (1EA) 134.9Mill. USD - - 3.9mi (1EA) 134.9Mill. USD

Total 53.1mile 178.4Mill. USD 1.6mile 1.0Mill. USD 54.7mile 179.3Mill. USD

New Arterial Road1 : San Isidro(Southern Highway) Ringtail (Hummingbird Highway)∼2

II. Economic analysis – cost estimation

94



provement Total


Structure

Earthwork 41.9mile 33.5Mill. USD 28.2mile 22.6Mill. USD 70.1mile 56.1Mill. USD

Bridge - - 0.019mile(30m, 1EA) 1.1Mill. USD 0.019mile


Tunnel - - - - - -


New Arterial Road2 : Blackman Eddy (George Price Highway) Orange Walk Town∼3


provement Total


Structure

Earthwork - - 11.5mile 9.2Mill. USD 11.5mile 9.2Mill. USD

Bridge - - - - - -

Tunnel - - - - - -

Total - - 11.5mile 9.2Mill. USD 11.5mile 9.2Mill. USD

Upgrading Altun Ha Road : Sand Hill (Northern Highway) ∼ Altun haA

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provement Total


Structure

Earthwork 13.1mile 10.5Mill. USD 24.6mile 19.7Mill. USD 37.7mile 30.2Mill. USD

Bridge 0.056mile (90m, 3EA) 3.2Mill. USD 0.019mile

(30m, 1EA) 1.1Mill. USD 0.075mile(120m, 4EA) 4.2Mill. USD

Tunnel - - - - - -


Upgrading Caracol Road : Caracol in Cayo D.∼ Georgeville(George Price Highway)B

Classification Location Size Project Cost

Northern Logistic & Industrial Facili-ties

Northern Belize, Mexico Border 13,000 ㎡ 10 Mill.USD

Belize Logistic & Industrial Facilities

Eastern Belize, Near Belize Port 37,000 ㎡ 28 Mill.USD

Western Logistic & Industrial Facilities

Western Belize,Guatemala Border 7,000 ㎡ 5 Mill.USD



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II. Economic analysis – benefit estimation Methodology

Benefit estimation procedure is followed by the Preliminary Feasibility Study

guideline in Korea• Travel time savings : necessary to know the value of time

• Operation cost savings : necessary to know oil price except tax

• Accident cost savings : load factor related accident

• Pollution cost savings : load factor related air pollution

• Belize has short of data for conducting accident cost savings & pollution cost savings estimation.

• Thus relevant Korea’s data is applied in a some parts of procedure


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II. Economic analysis – benefit estimation Time savings

In order to calculate time savings, the value of time should be known• Work time value

• Wages for 4 weeks is USD 1,920 : 『 Abstract of Statistics 2012 』• Working time : 20 days per month, 8 hours per day

• Overhead change : 30%

• The working time value: USD 15.6 per hour

• The non-working time value is assumed one-third of working time value: USD 5.2 per hour

The value of time of average trip• The time value of average trip should be calculated.

• The proportion of working and non-working time trips

• In 1991, the proportion of working and non-working time trips are 12.2% and 87.8% in Korea.

• The proportion of working and non-working time trips are assumed to be 12.0% and 88.0%

• The value of time of average trip : USD 6.45


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II. Economic analysis – benefit estimation Vehicle operating cost savings

Oil price, depreciation, and maintain cost should be known.• Only oil price estimation (except tax)

• In August 2008, retail oil price USD 1.38 per liter including USD 0.43 per liter as tax

• The proportion of oil price with tax and except tax is about 70% and 30%

• Retail oil price is assumed as USD 1.50 per liter, oil price excepting tax is USD 1.05 per liter

Accident cost savings & Pollution cost savings

Accident cost savings• Accident cost savings is assumed that 10% of travel time savings

Pollution cost savings• Pollution cost savings is assumed that 8.9% of travel time savings


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II. Economic analysis – benefit estimation Result of benefit estimation

Coastal road• In 2030, total benefit is USD 7,609 thou-

sand.

Alternative Benefit category 2018 2020 2030

Coastal road

Travel time savings 　 1,928.2 4,957.2 Vehicle operating cost sav-

ings 　 633.5 1,713.7

Accident cost savings 　 192.2 494.2 Pollution cost savings 　 172.5 443.5

Total 　 2,926.5 7,608.6

Southern arterial

road


ings 　 679.3 1,007.2


Total 　 1,930.4 2,743.9

Northern arterial

road


ings 　 586.7 806.8


Total 　 2,777.7 6,371.4

Altun Ha road

Travel time savings 269.5 736.8 1,867.4 Vehicle operating cost sav-

ings 7.1 180.2 644.4

Accident cost savings 26.9 73.5 186.2 Pollution cost savings 24.1 65.9 167.1

Total 327.6 1,056.4 2,865.0

Caracol road

Travel time savings 1,898.2 2,680.6 6,319.0 Vehicle operating cost sav-

ings 656.0 926.3 2,180.4

Accident cost savings 189.2 267.2 629.9 Pollution cost savings 169.8 239.8 565.3

Total 2,913.2 4,113.9 9,694.6

(Unit : thou. USD/year)

Caracol road & Altun Ha road• In 2030, total benefit is huge than other

target year.

• The development of tour place was sup-

posed to be finished before 2030. Northern arterial road

• In 2030, biggest travel time savings as

USD 4,680 thousand

• Arterial road aims to have function for

inter-regional trips in short period of

time


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II. Economic analysis – cost-benefit analysis Result of cost-benefit analysis

Economic cost and benefit of a project are estimated in above, based on fore-casted demand.• Coastal road is evaluated as feasible, which has 1.03 B/C ratio.

• Altun Ha road & Caracol road have above 0.5

• Northern arterial road has 0.42, Southern arterial road has 0.12

Present Value(USD thou.)B/C NPV

(USD thou.)Total cost Total benefit

Coastal road 2,575 2,648 1.03 74

Southern arterial road 9,657 1,159 0.12 -8,498

Northern arterial road 5,475 2,295 0.42 -3,180

Altun Ha road 962 562 0.58 -400

Caracol road 3,598 2,107 0.59 -1,491


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III. AHP analysis

Cost-benefit analysis is not enough to evaluate feasibility.• Multi-criteria analysis including cost-benefit analysis result is conducted to evaluate alternatives from

comprehensive perspective.

AHP analysis consequently aims to determine feasibility and prioritize among plural road projects• Significant role in planning to allocate limited budget efficiently


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III. AHP analysis

All respondents give a score above 0.5• “Project Implementation” alternative is more feasible way in evaluating 5 candidate projects

Result of AHP analysis

Coastal road Southernarterial road

NorthernArterial road Altun Ha road Caracol road

Imp-2) Status Quo Imp-2) Status Quo Imp-2) Status Quo Imp-2) Status Quo Imp-2) Status QuoTotal 0.709 0.291 0.502 0.498 0.553 0.447 0.629 0.371 0.636 0.364

Res. 11) 0.658 0.342 0.518 0.482 0.536 0.464 0.563 0.437 0.564 0.436Res. 2 0.763 0.237 0.768 0.232 0.766 0.234 0.707 0.293 0.683 0.317Res. 3 0.771 0.229 0.450 0.550 0.540 0.460 0.761 0.239 0.752 0.248Res. 4 0.644 0.356 0.513 0.487 0.509 0.491 0.541 0.459 0.586 0.414Res. 5 0.705 0.295 0.475 0.525 0.582 0.418 0.617 0.383 0.639 0.361

1) Res. 1 stands for Respondent 1, 2) Imp- stands for Project Implementation


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III. AHP analysis

Upgrading Coastal road• B/C 1.03, AHP 0.709

• Top priority

Project priority



Total costs(USD thou.) 3,411 12,795 7,254 1,167 4,362

B/C 1.03 0.12 0.42 0.58 0.59

AHP 0.709 0.502 0.553 0.629 0.636

Priority 1 5 4 3 2

2nd & 3rd priority• Upgrading Altun Ha road : B/C 0.58, AHP 0.709

• Upgrading Caracol road : B/C 0.58, AHP 0.709

• Upgrading projects tent to have lover costs than constructing new road.

• O/D is assumed to be had more trips around tour places


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III. AHP analysis

Southern arterial road & northern arterial road• Feasible according to the AHP score

• All projects can be included in the Transportation Master Plan in Belize its priorities.

Project priority



Total costs(USD thou.) 3,411 12,795 7,254 1,167 4,362

B/C 1.03 0.12 0.42 0.58 0.59

AHP 0.709 0.502 0.553 0.629 0.636

Priority 1 5 4 3 2

Project priority derived from AHP is temporary analyzed by Korea’s view• The most influence thing to conduct alternatives is Belize’s own opinion

• Belize regards the analysis as consultation, and makes own decision considering financial possibilities


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IV. National Transportation Master Plan

Efficient transportation investment

• Poor infrastructure conditions & cannot afford to invest budget in all kinds of alternatives• Intensive infrastructure investment on strategic industries is necessitated based on project priorities derived from evaluation

Goals


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1st phase : 2014-2020

• Investment will be made in transportation infra-structure related to tertiary industry and trade movement, which play pivotal roles in Belize’s economy

• The transportation infrastructure investment is mainly focused on rehabilitating road connecting tour area and trade spot with major cities to en-hance accessibility and mobility

• Coastal road- Major arterial road to connect coastal trading spot with inland major cities

- It has to be straightened the route and rehabili-tated to improve accessibility and mobility for attracting tourists as well as enhancing logistic productivity

Master plan by phase


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1st phase : 2014-2020

• Altun Ha road- Maya tour place close to Belize City.- Improving alignment and paving the road to enhance its accessibility and safety

- It has relatively lower construction costs than other alternatives, and it is expected to attract more tourists

• Augustine Pine Ridge Municipal airstrip- New construction for attract tourist



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2nd phase : 2021-2030 • Road investment for boosting major industries will be also made continuously

• Caracol road- Existing Caracol road is bended in many sections- It has to be straightened for attracting more tourists by reducing travel time

- Government has already spent budget on complet -ing road alternatives in the 1st phase

- Public-private participation (PPP) is recommended to Caracol road

• Southern arterial road- Existing highways are functioned as accessing be-tween capital city and southern major cities

- Expected to enhance logistic productivity in south-ern region and accessibility to tour area

- This road necessitates huge amount of costs. It is desirable for Belize government to consider it as PPP



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2nd phase : 2021-2030

• Airstrip- Attract tourist and safety improvement by runway widening and expansion taxiway

- Corozal airstrip, San Pedro airstrip, Cay Caulker, Dangriga, Placencia, Punta Gorda



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3rd phase : after 2030

• Focuses on establishing industrial infrastructure for long-term economic development

• Belize to build stable industrial structure for addi-tional nationwide investment

• Northern arterial road- Improving connectivity between northern and west-ern regions, and it enable to enhance accessibility to tour areas and logistic mobility

• Logistic/industrial complex- Reducing national logistic costs and enhance trade productivity by establishing industrial complexes close to neighboring countries and Belize’s port area

•Commerce bight port- In response to industrial development and eco-nomic growth, the port needs to accommodate growing logistic demand



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Section Phase Project Problem Masterplan

Road

1st phase(2014-2020)

Coastal road• Natural disaster such as flood• Poor accessibility to Dangriga, Pla-

cencia• Saving travel time• Improve accessibility

Altun Ha road • Poor accessibility to tour place• Poor connectivity

• Saving travel time• Improve accessibility & connectivity

2nd phase(2021-2030)

Caracol road

Southern arterial road• Lack of connectivity by region • Saving travel time

• Improve connectivity3rd phase Northern arterial road

Airstrip

1st phase(2014-2020)

Augustine Pine Ridge municipal• Lack of capacity• Poor safety condition• Limited road

• New construction

2nd phase(2021-2030)

Corozal airstrip, Dangriga, San Pedro airstrip,

Caye Caulker, Placencia, Punta Gorda

• Runway widening• Expansion access road• Taxiway improvement

Seaport3rd phase

(after 2030)

Big Creek, Commerce bight port • Poor condition• Inefficient ports • Construction by a feasibility study

Logistics3rd phase

(after 2030)

Northern, Belize, Western • Inefficient logistics • Construction by some feasibility study


Financing SourcesⅥ

Ⅵ Financing Sources

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I. Government budget in Belize

In 2011/12, Belize’s government budget USD 364.8 million - Transportation sector budget : 1.1% of total budget

- In past 3 years, the rate of transportation sector budget has continuously decreased

2007/08 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Total Budget (USD mill.) 292.6 344.9 360.8 364.8

Budget in TransportationSector(USD mill.) 5.5 5.3 5.7 4.0

Rate(%) 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.1

Source : 1) Abstract of Statistics Belize 2009, Statistical Institute of Belize, 2009 2) Abstract of Statistics Belize 2012, Statistical Institute of Belize, 2012


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I. Government budget in Belize

Government revenue - Tax revenue accounts : 90% of total revenue

- Transportation sector revenue has continuously decreased since 2008.

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Total Revenue (USD mill.) 325.5 364.5 375.6 392.1 392.0

Tax Revenue (USD mill.) 297.0 318.4 335.1 351.7 343.7

Tax Revenue (USD mill.) 28.5 46.1 40.5 40.4 48.4Transportation Sector

(USD mill.) 0.0 2.4 2.3 0.8 0.1

Source : Abstract of Statistics Belize 2012, Statistical Institute of Belize, 2012


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2. Budgetary Plan by Belizean Government(2013-2014)

Tax Reform under consideration - Reform for economic growth and competitiveness, especially in Tourism sector

- (Special or ear-marked) tax for transport sector yet to be considered

Public Private Sector Partnerships - intend for growing economy and providing more jobs/higher incomes

- “consideration of proposals to review the entire transportation sector, including seaport and air-

port operations as well as road development and improvement, in order to optimize the delivery of ser-

vices and reduce the costs of moving people and goods throughout the country and within the region”


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2. Budgetary Plan by Belizean Government(2013-2014)

Resource from MDB for upgrading Roads, Streets and Drains - $6.0 million from OPEC Fund, Kuwait Fund and CABEI for the continuation of the upgrading of South-

ern Highway

- $5.0 million from CDB for new Macal River Crossing(in Cayo District, including upgrading roads to the

new bridge site

- $3.0 million from CABEI for new Corozal Border Crossing Reconstruction Project to upgrade facilities

and infrastructure at the second Belize/Mexico Bridge

- $6.0 million from World Bank for Belize Municipal Development Project to improve access to basic

municipal infrastructure and to enhance municipal management in selected towns and city councils.


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3. Public Private Partnership

Argument for use of PPP : efficiency, fiscal constraint

Efficiency argument : private sector is considered to have greater incentive and ability to deliver efficiency.

- construction : cost effective - operation : better maintenance over contract life

Fiscal constraint argument : we can utilize private resource against infrastruc-ture deficit.

- accounting issue - reallocation among generations


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3. Public Private Partnership

Benefit - mobilize and utilize private resources - save fiscal expenditure in the long run - enhancing efficiency Opportunity - infrastructure delivery - stimulus package - multilateral development banks Challenges - value for money - fiscal management - criticism and/or bad public perception

Jung Wook KIM : Korea Development Institute (E-mail : [email protected])Eui Young SHON : University of Seoul (E-mail : [email protected])Seol Joo KIM : TESO Engineering Co. (E-mail : [email protected] )

THANK YOU

mailto:[email protected]



belize national transportation master plan 2014

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