benjamin r. j. schwedler nextgen development meteorologist

Aviation Weather Center2014 NCEP Model Review

02 December 2014

David R. Bright & C. Bruce Entwistle

Benjamin R. J. SchwedlerNextGen Development Meteorologist

2

Cost of Weather Related Delays Flight delays cost over $30 Billion dollars a year

1/3 to 1/2 of delays are related to weather

~40% of weather-related delays are avoidable


2014-12-02

3Aviation Weather Center2014 NCEP Model Review

2014-12-02

4

Aviation Forecast Product Consistency


“The NTSB concludes that the NWS is not ensuring consistency among its weather advisory products and that the aviation community is missing important advisory information disseminated through nonaviation-specific weather products, as evidenced in the recent accident investigations. Ideally, this consistency would occur through modification or enhancement of an existing NWS aviation weather product that is known to the aviation community and can be routinely provided in preflight weather briefings.”

- NTSB Safety Recommendations to NWS

A-14-17 through A-14-21

A frequent cause of or contributing factor to these accidents is hazardous weather.…The NTSB continues to examine the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) weather information dissemination practices in recent investigations as well as the consistency of National Weather Service (NWS) weather advisory products for the aviation community. While having weather information available to pilots, air traffic controllers, and meteorologists is crucial, improper understanding and misutilization of this information can prove just as dangerous (if not more dangerous) as not having that information at all.

- NTSB 2014 Most Wanted List2014-12-02

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Motivation for C&V Improvements

Greatest number of General Aviation fatalities Can have major impacts on terminal capacity Compared to other aviation hazards, have

limited guidance Consistency in national picture of C&V forecasts Provide guidance to WFOs creating TAFs from

gridsAviation Weather Center2014 NCEP Model Review

2014-12-02

62014-12-02

NAM Update: Ceiling & VisibilityNortheast US


Visibility Ceiling

2 Cases of Graupel

Distribution in NAM Update better matches OBS

Ceilings a bit too low in NAM update

72014-12-02

NAM Update: Ceiling & VisibilityWest Coast US


Visibility Ceiling

Ceilings a bit too low in NAM update

Better match of MVFR and worse but too much IFR

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AWC/EMC Collaboration AWC & EMC have had a much closer collaboration

following the Hires-Window parallel evaluations Collaboration has already lead to improvements in

model updates AWC providing information about aviation impacts

to EMC Further collaboration with EMC for 2015 upgrades to

improve issues identified in previous evaluationsAviation Weather Center2014 NCEP Model Review

2014-12-02

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Wish List for cloud forecasting improvements

Additional experiments with increased vertical resolution SREF update will include increased vertical resolution Interested in sensitivity studies, especially near boundary layer

Improvements in both on-shore and off-shore cloud modeling

Tops forecast improvements for Area Forecast replacement Context-based verification is key in evaluation


2014-12-02

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Context-Based Verification Need to look at the range where impacts actually occur Statistics must be chosen appropriately for physical

parameters and level of impacts For example, for low ceilings, looking only at the total

cloud base distribution doesn’t give us meaningful information about the problem at hand

Have already been spinning up some efforts at AWC to address these issues


2014-12-02

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Experimental National Probabilistic C&V Guidance

Advance consistency of NWS Aviation Services National-to-local alignment of C&V Forecasts Consistent tactical and strategic cloud-based

guidance Provide both probabilistic and deterministic

guidance Move toward decision support database for

customersAviation Weather Center2014 NCEP Model Review

2014-12-02


2014-12-02

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Modernized AWC Website Use of open GIS tools like MapServer and

OpenLayers Unification of data visualization across the site

Works consistently on desktops, tablets, and smartphones Many pilots now carrying around tablets

Use of new NWS layout template Currently working on move to IDP infrastructureAviation Weather Center2014 NCEP Model Review

2014-12-02


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CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

Experimental model-derived product Similar to Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Leverages NCEP convection-allowing and mesoscale

models Forecast consistency information conveyed as CCFP

confidence

Free up AWC Forecasters for Collaborative Aviation Weather Statements (CAWS)


2014-12-02


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Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement

FAA requested the NWS create CAWS for Traffic Flow Management

Has been demonstrated for two years Collaboratively produced by AWC, CWSU, and WFOs Depiction of aviation hazards in the next 4-6 hours First for convection, then move to all-hazards Also include information on hazard cessation timesAviation Weather Center2014 NCEP Model Review

2014-12-02


Valid Period...1552 UTC - 1800 UTC 16 Jun

AWS for Convection...

NAS Elements Affected...ARTCCs...ZAU ZDC ZID ZOBRoutes...J80 J134 J149

Constraints...AREA OF TSTMS ACROSS SRN IND WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND MOVE EWD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SRN OH. SHOWERS ACROSS SE OH/FAR NW WV WILL CONTINUE EWD WHILE INCREASING IN STRENGTH...WITH TOPS INCREASING TO FL350. EVENTUAL BROKEN LINE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SRN IND EWD INTO FAR SW PA BY 17Z.

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World Area Forecast System WAFS Hazard Grids are operational (Icing, Turbulence,

Cb) Airlines and other customers use grids for decision making Customers need verification info and summary of changes

due to model updates

US Responsible for Icing verification Server has been down for months for security patching Needs to be a priority so users can determine use thresholds


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World Area Forecast System


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WAFS Service Enhancements EMC funded for 2015 to implement FIP and GTG

on GFS Turbulence (GTG) output will be in EDR Space

FIP and GTG will also need to be ported to the GEFS Required for creating probabilistic grids of

turbulence and icing

Projects satisfy US/UK commitment to ICAO for severity information and probabilistic forecasts


2014-12-02

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Additional Wish List Items MAG Changes

Full CONUS View for HRRR Echo Tops for convection-permitting models

(Aviation Importance)

Smaller subsets for hires grids in GEMPAK format We have been moving to GRIB2 for many models

and converting See breakout discussion on Thursday


2014-12-02

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NextGen IT Web Services Implement net-centric weather information for

aviation Move away from data silos Improve access and delivery of data to stakeholders Provide common access for users to discover and

retrieve NOAA data Leverage NGITWS for AWIPS Data Delivery


2014-12-02

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NGITWS Project Highlights OGC-Compliant web services (WFS, WCS,

WMS) Standard Formats

NetCDF4, CF conventions for coverage (gridded) data

IWXXM, WXXM for features (non-gridded) data

Redundant high-availability state of the art data centers

NCEP Central Operations in College Park and Boulder


2014-12-02


Joint Capabilty Evaluation – NextGen Concept Demo

2014-12-02CSS-Wx

NOAA DataWeb Exchange

CSS-Wx

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Additional 2015 Activities 2015 Aviation Weather Testbed Experiment

(summer) GOES-R, TFM/AWS, C&V COP

CWSU Convective Gate Forecasts on AWC Web Aviation Weather Testbed diagnostics web page Multiple internal IT upgrades


2014-12-02

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]


02 December 2014

David R. Bright & C. Bruce Entwistle

Benjamin R. J. SchwedlerNextGen Development Meteorologist

benjamin r. j. schwedler nextgen development meteorologist

Documents

aviation weather center

ifr slide

nam update slide

srn ind ewd

additional development

srn oh

obs ceilings

j80 j134 j149 constraints