Berly Martawardaya (FEUI)

Disampaikan pada Diskusi IESR

Jakarta, 23 September 2015

Negara yang kaya sumber daya alam justru rendah pertumbuhan ekonomi, lemah

industrialisasi dan rawan konflik (Sach & Warner 2001, Frankel 2010)

3

The Resource Curse: Introduction

It has been observed for some decades that the possession of oil or other valuable

mineral deposits or natural resources does not necessarily confer economic success.

Many African countries such as Angola, Nigeria, Sudan, and the Congo are rich in oil,

diamonds, or other minerals, and yet their peoples continue to experience low per capita

income and low quality of life. Meanwhile, the East Asian economies Japan, Korea,

Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong have achie ved western-level standards of living

despite being rocky islands (or peninsulas) with virtually no exportable natural resources.

Auty (1993, 2001) is apparently the one who coined the phrase “natural resource curse”

to describe this puzzling phenomenon. Its use spread rapidly.1

Figure 1 illustrates for a cross section of countries, over the last four decades.

Exports of fuels, ores and metals as a fraction of total merchandise exports appear on the

horizontal axis and economic growth on the vertical axis. Conspicuously high in growth

and low in natural resources are China and some other Asian countries. Conspicuously

high in natural resources and low in growth are Venezuela and Zambia. The overall

relationship on average is slightly negative. The negative correlation is not very strong,

masking almost as many resource successes as failures. But it certainly suggests no

positive correlation between natural resource wealth and economic growth.

Figure 1: Statistical relationship between mineral exports and growth.

1 Two other surveys of the resource curse, Stevens (2003) and van der Ploeg (2010), are

written for energy specialists and economic theorists, respectively. The present survey

casts a wider net, is intended for a more general audience, and offers policy prescriptions.

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Figure 3: Shares of Mining Commodities in Exports and of Mining Gross Value Added in

GDP, 1870-2010 (percentages)

Notes: No data 1942-45 for foreign trade and 1942-48 for GDP. Van der Eng (2010) only

contains GDP estimates in 2000 prices, not current prices. Nominal oil and gas prices in

Indonesia rose by a factor of 465 from 1973 to 2010, while nominal prices of all other

goods and services combined rose by a factor of 180. The share of oil and gas GVA in GDP

in 2000 prices is therefore also estimated with just 40% of GVA in oil and gas as a proxy

for the contribution of oil and gas to total GVA at an assumed pre-1973 shadow price.

Sources: Calculated from Indonesia’s foreign trade statistics 1870-2010, see the Appendix;

Indonesia’s national accounts in current prices 1951-2010; GVA in Mining in 2000 prices,

see Figure 1; GDP in 2000 prices 1880-2010 Van der Eng (2010), replacing the old

estimates of total GVA in mining with the ones in Figure 1.

41

Figure 4: Share of Tax and Non-Tax Income from Mining in Total Central Government

Revenue and in Gross Value Added from Mining, 1870-2010 (percentages)

Notes: No data for 1942-47. 1870-1940 comprises net government income from tin, coal,

gold and silver mining, revenues from mining concessions, dividends from NIAM and

GMB joint ventures, oil industry crisis levy in the 1930s, mining export duties and mining

company tax (both estimated from totals in proportion to the share of mining in exports),

and excludes income from the salt monopoly; 1948-2010 comprises 1948-66 mining

company tax and 1948-2010 mining-related export duties (both estimated from totals in

proportion to the share of mining in exports), 1952-59 net transfers from all SOEs, 1960-72

net transfers from SOEs Permina and Pertamina, 1967-89 oil company tax, 1990-2010 non-

tax revenue from mining, 1994-2010 net profit transfers by SOEs (mining SOEs were

predominant), 1999-2010 income tax from oil and gas firms.

Sources: Mining GVA in current prices, see the Appendix; government income 1870-1940

calculated from Encyclopedia (Vol.1: 750-758; Vol.7: 154-163), Mulder (1938), and budget

papers included in Bijlagen bij de Handelingen van de Staten Generaal (1870-1940) and

Bijlagen bij de Handelingen van de Volksraad (1918-1942); 1948-2010 from Nota

Keuangan Negara (1948-1959), Statistik Keuangan (1960-89), Statistik Ekonomi dan

Keuangan Indonesia (1990-2010).

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0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Others

Malaysia

Other Africa

Indonesia

Egypt

Australia

Vietnam

Oman

India

Azerbaijan

Ecuador

Norway

Mexico

Algeria

Angola

Brazil

China

Qatar

Kazakhstan

Nigeria

US

Libya

Russian Federation

United Arab …

Kuwait

Iraq

Iran

Canada

Saudi Arabia

Venezuela

MMMBO

World Proven Oil Reserves

Indonesia’s proven oil reserve: 3.6 BBO is rank #27, only 0.2% of total world

Total world oil reserves Des-2013: 1684 billion barrel

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Others

Vietnam

Ukraine

Pakistan

Netherlands

Azerbaijan

Oman

Uzbekistan

Malaysia

Other Africa

India

Kazakhstan

Libya

Kuwait

Egypt

Canada

Norway

Indonesia

China

Iraq

Australia

Algeria

Nigeria

Venezuela

United Arab …

Saudi Arabia

US

Turkmenistan

Qatar

Russian Federation

Iran

World Proven Gas Reserves

TCF

Indonesia’s gas reserve: 100 TCF is rank #14, only 1.5% of total world

Total world gas reserves Des-2013: 6558 TCF

Indonesia bukan negara kaya minyak……

… dan bukan negara kaya gas……

Apakah Indonesia Negara Kaya Migas?

(Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014)

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Produksi dan Konsumsi Minyak Indonesia

Bauran energi primer nasional dalam Juta BOE

(Dewan Energi Nasional)

Gap produksi-konsumsi yang makin melebar setelah Indonesia menjadi net importer minyak pada tahun 2004

Migas masih mendominasi bauran energi primer nasional sampai 20 tahun mendatang

Cadangan minyak habis 18 tahun lagi: Perlu mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap energi berbasis minyak bumi (konservasi, efisiensi, diversifikasi).

Pendapatan Migas (triliun rupiah)

111.8

141.3 144.7 135.3 139.1

61.6 66.3

40.9

52.2 61.1

68.3 77.7

19.8 18.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Gas

Minyak

Berly Martawardaya, Triyono Basuku & M.Fadli Hanafi

Data 415 kabupaten dan 93 kota

Tahun 2006-2012

Panel data dan Granger Causality

Studi Empiris

DBH-APBD Ratio and Economic Indicators (Municipal/ District)

Granger Causality DBH-SDA Percapita

(20 % richest)

DBH-SDA Percapita

GDP

Personnel Exp

HDI

APBD

BPK Poverty

Tax

Significant +

Significant -

Insignificant

Variable Semua Sangat Kaya Kaya Cukup Kaya Kurang Kaya Tidak Kaya

Coefficient P-Value Sig Coefficient P-Value Sig Coefficient P-Value Sig Coefficient P-Value Sig Coefficient P-Value Sig Coefficient P-Value Sig

gdp_percapita_constant1 -0.002 0.393 0.019 0.011 ** -0.003 0.663 -0.011 0.024 ** 0.003 0.525 0.004 0.445

gdp_agriculture_ratio -0.065 0.073 * -0.591 0.000 *** -0.867 0.000 *** 0.094 0.387 -0.424 0.007 *** 0.198 0.021 **

gdp_manufacture_ratio -0.086 0.000 *** -0.009 0.777 -0.043 0.020 ** -0.108 0.000 *** -0.134 0.012 ** -0.056 0.281

gdp_mining_ratio 0.116 0.000 *** -0.009 0.540 0.010 0.742 0.100 0.000 *** 0.024 0.165 0.057 0.228

gdp_service_financial_ratio -0.105 0.000 *** 0.164 0.005 *** 0.082 0.040 * -0.153 0.000 *** -0.199 0.008 *** -0.124 0.037 **

gdp_service_others_ratio -0.147 0.000 *** -0.437 0.000 *** 0.089 0.153 -0.024 0.685 0.385 0.001 ***

fdi_current -0.001 0.130 -0.001 0.429 0.001 0.539 -0.001 0.178 -0.003 0.079 *

fdi_current1 -0.001 0.168 -0.001 0.150 0.000 0.639 0.001 0.543 0.000 0.651 -0.001 0.476

ddi_local_currrent 0.000 0.723 0.001 0.451 -0.002 0.111

ddi_local_currrent1 -0.001 0.061 * 0.000 0.744 -0.001 0.502 -0.001 0.389 -0.003 0.007 *** -0.001 0.637

hdi_growth 0.010 0.065 * 0.018 0.024 ** 0.044 0.000 *** -0.012 0.283 -0.016 0.214

apbd_current 0.032 0.000 *** 0.045 0.000 *** 0.021 0.000 *** 0.040 0.000 *** 0.010 0.238 0.127 0.000 ***

pad_current

tax_current -0.035 0.000 *** -0.051 0.000 *** -0.019 0.000 *** -0.044 0.000 *** -0.011 0.242 -0.157 0.000 ***

silpa_current 0.000 0.639 -0.002 0.378 0.001 0.650 -0.002 0.484

pov 0.033 0.028 ** -0.013 0.360 0.034 0.189 0.033 0.078 * 0.072 0.058 *

sda_apbd 0.001 0.747 -0.018 0.158 0.004 0.496 0.007 0.206 -0.003 0.511 0.003 0.490 elect 0.080 0.000 *** 0.034 0.219 0.121 0.003 *** -0.041 0.482 0.112 0.224

jsec_enr -0.093 0.000 *** -0.062 0.110 -0.094 0.173 -0.119 0.002 *** -0.254 0.019 **

senr_enr 0.054 0.029 ** 0.065 0.068 * 0.057 0.078 * 0.088 0.123 0.143 0.012 ** 0.158 0.026 **

bpk1 0.004 0.583 0.090 0.000 *** 0.004 0.774 -0.026 0.109 0.016 0.272 0.017 0.382

agr_exp_ratio_current 0.007 0.206 0.006 0.547 0.004 0.611 0.005 0.610 0.011 0.392

inf_exp_ratio_current

edu_exp_ratio_current

health_exp_ratio_current

soc_exp_ratio_current

personel_exp_ratio_current -0.054 0.008 *** -0.084 0.060 * -0.091 0.008 *** -0.012 0.764 -0.053 0.123 0.081 0.306

capital_exp_ratio_current

economic_exp_ratio

admin_exp_ratio

goods_service_exp_ratio 0.024 0.086 * 0.034 0.233 0.046 0.036 ** 0.013 0.690 0.051 0.019 ** -0.090 0.029 **

housing_exp_ratio -0.002 0.328 -0.002 0.696 0.005 0.225 0.002 0.612 -0.012 0.030 **

public_law_order_exp_ratio

tourism_culture_ratio

pop 1.230 0.000 *** 1.318 0.000 *** 1.289 0.000 *** 1.208 0.000 *** 1.239 0.000 *** 1.218 0.000 ***

d_2006 -0.218 0.002 *** -0.146 0.142 -0.129 0.081 * -0.375 0.000 *** -0.500 0.000 ***

d_2007 -0.168 0.009 *** -0.128 0.163 -0.203 0.000 *** -0.337 0.000 *** -0.479 0.000 ***

d_2008 0.074 0.000 *** -0.129 0.029 ** -0.070 0.416 -0.079 0.042 ** -0.210 0.000 *** -0.475 0.000 ***

d_2009 0.150 0.000 *** -0.083 0.156 -0.035 0.675 -0.166 0.003 *** -0.410 0.000 ***

d_2010 0.151 0.000 *** -0.045 0.562 -0.092 0.083 * -0.090 0.032 ** -0.353 0.002 ***

d_2011 0.181 0.000 *** 0.013 0.690 -0.062 0.416 -0.040 0.448 -0.077 0.055 * -0.268 0.014 **

d_2012 0.283 0.000 ***

_cons -0.713 0.000 *** -2.654 0.000 *** -1.505 0.000 *** -0.299 0.005 *** -0.521 0.003 *** 0.373 0.028 **

F - Stat 7503.840 989.580 1324.980 3508.990 1784.020 1971.360

F - Prob 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Siap hadapi era harga migas rendah

Kelola penerimaan migas untuk naikkan long term growth non-migas, khususnya human capital dan diversifikasi pendapatan. Siapkan natural resource fund

Naikkan produksi dan penerimaan migas

Perpendek perijinan (PSC Posterior & Lex Specialis?)

Tunda pajak operasional migas hingga produksi

Gabungkan SKK Migas ke Pertamina (ala Petronas)

Dorong ekspansi Pertamina ke luar negri

Bentuk BUMN Holding Energi (Pertamina, PGN, PLN plus Geothermal)

Langkah Strategis

Produce More & Use it Better