bernard salt - kpmg - community expectations of infrastructure
TRANSCRIPT
Queensland Infrastructure Summit
Community expectations of infrastructureBernard Salt
15 September 2016
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Australia offers good prospects for business growth
Source: Based on OECD data; KPMG Demographics
2016 2050 ChangeWorking Age
Change
1 Australia 24 38 +54% +45%
2 Canada 36 49 +33% +18%
3 United States 324 400 +23% +15%
4 United Kingdom 65 77 +18% +10%
5 New Zealand 4 5 +13% +1%
6 Germany 81 69 -14% -27%
7 Japan 126 97 -23% -34%
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All major Australian cities will be reimagined by 20501954
1 Sydney 1,863
2 Melbourne 1,524
3 Brisbane 502
4 Adelaide 484
5 Perth 349
6 Newcastle 178
7 Hobart 95
8 Wollongong 91
9 Geelong 72
10 Launceston 49
11 Ballarat 48
12 Toowoomba 43
13 Rockhampton 41
14 Townsville 40
15 Ipswich 39
16 Bendigo 37
17 Broken Hill 31
18 Canberra 28
19 Blue Mountains 23
20 Kalgoorlie 23
20151 Sydney 4,921
2 Melbourne 4,529
3 Brisbane 2,309
4 Perth 2,039
5 Adelaide 1,317
6 Gold Coast – Tweed 625
7 Newcastle–Maitland 434
8 Canberra - Queanbeyan 425
9 Sunshine Coast 302
10 Wollongong 292
11 Greater Hobart 221
12 Geelong 187
13 Townsville 180
14 Cairns 148
15 Greater Darwin 142
16 Toowoomba 115
17 Ballarat 100
18 Bendigo 93
19 Albury - Wodonga 89
20 Launceston 87
20501 Sydney 7,688
2 Melbourne 7,670
3 Perth 4,633
4 Brisbane 4,188
5 Adelaide 1,797
6 Gold Coast - Tweed 1,225
7 Canberra - Queanbeyan 722
8 Newcastle-Maitland 588
9 Sunshine Coast 503
10 Wollongong 384
11 Townsville 340
12 Geelong 301
13 Greater Hobart 265
14 Cairns 225
15 Greater Darwin 209
16 Toowoomba 197
17 Mackay 193
18 Ballarat 181
19 Bendigo 161
20 Rockhampton 142
Population figures expressed in ‘000s
Source: Based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics;
relevant State Government planning authorities; KPMG Demographics
2015-502,767
3,141
2,594
1,879
480
600
297
154
201
92
160
114
44
77
67
82
108
81
68
61
% growth56%
69%
127%
81%
36%
96%
70%
35%
67%
32%
89%
61%
20%
52%
47%
71%
127%
81%
73%
75%
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Net change in the Queensland population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2015 and 10 years to 2025
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Demographic surges drive demand for infrastructure2005-2015: 0.9 million (3.9m to 4.8m)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
0–4 5–9 10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80–84 85+
2015-2025: 1.0 million (4.8m to 5.8m)
Kids & teenagers
Schools & sporting facilities
Mature adults
Seachange communities
Young adults
Apartments & offices
Retirees
Hospitals & tax issues
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Australian cities are spread across a vast canvasMelbourne
2015 – 4.5 million
2050 – 7.7 million
South East Queensland
2015 – 3.1 million
2050 – 6.1 million
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Los Angeles covers the same area as South East Queensland
Greater Los Angeles
2014 - 19 million
2050 – 22 million
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Brisbane and the Gold Coast offers access to 30 global cities
Source: RometoRio/MapInfo; KPMG Demographics
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Top 20 cities in China at 2015 and 2000
Source: Based on UN Population Division data; KPMG Demographics
Population M
City 2015 2000
11 Hong Kong * 7 7
12 Foshan 7 4
13 Hangzhou 6 3
14 Shenyang 6 5
15 Xi'an * 6 4
16 Suzhou 5 2
17 Haerbin 5 4
18 Qingdao 5 3
19 Dalian 4 3
20 Xiamen * 4 1
Population M
City 2015 2000
1 Shanghai * 24 14
2 Beijing * 20 10
3 Chongqing * 13 8
4 Guangzhou * 12 7
5 Tianjin 11 7
6 Shenzhen * 11 7
7 Wuhan * 8 7
8 Chengdu * 8 4
9 Dongguan 7 4
10 Nanjing * 7 4
* Cities connected into Australia
China’s middle-class is underpinning our prosperity
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Net growth in population aged 65+ over 100 years in Australia
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Australia is embarking upon an “era of ageing”
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
2034
2038
2042
2046
2050
1950 20001975 2025 2050
1950: 0.7m
2016: 3.7m
2050: 7.9m
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Source: Icons made by Freepik/Roundicons from www.flaticon.com; KPMG Demographics
Points to consider
The ageing of the population will
drive demand for health and education
infrastructure
3
Queensland has evolved an
inefficient urban form which will
need to be tightened to
make better use of infrastructure
1
China will drive further development
of Queensland tourism
infrastructure, including airports,
roads, rail and ports
2
© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
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The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
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© 2016 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
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