bert pcfv pak - 17may.ppt
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Bert FabianTransport Program Manager
Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Center
National Workshop on Clean Fuels and Vehicles
Islamabad, Pakistan19 May 2010
Vehicle Emissions and Fuel QualityStandards in Asia and Objectives
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About PCFV
Launched at the WSSD in Johannesburg in 2002
Assists developing countries to reduce air pollution fromvehicles through the promotion of lead-free, low sulphur fuels
and cleaner vehicle standards and technologies
With over 116 partners including governments, civil society,
international organizations, and academic institutions
www.unep.org/pcfv
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About CAI-Asia
The Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities promotes better air quality
and livable cities by translating knowledge to policies and actions
that reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in transport,
energy and other sectors
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CAI-Asiabegan in 2001 as a multi-stakeholder initiative by ADB, World Bank
and USAID
Since 2007, CAI-Asia is a UN Type-II Partnership with over 170 organizational
members, 8 Country Networks, and the CAI-Asia Center as its secretariat (a
non-profit organization)
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CAI-Asia, a team of specialists and partners (HEI, Shell,USEPA), with ADBs support, prepared the Road Map forCleaner Fuels and Vehicles in Asia
Asian countries still need to put in place medium term
fuel quality roadmaps It is important to involve stakeholders in decision making
and action planning for the introduction of cleaner fuelsand vehicles
www.cleanairinitiative.org
Road Map for Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles
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Outline
Transport trends and impacts
Sustainable transport and cleaner fuels and vehicles
Objectives of the workshop
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How can our transport system become
sustainable?
Break the trend!
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Motorization: explosive growth in vehicles in Asia
Source: 2009. ADB, CAI-Asia, Segment Y Ltd., and IEA
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ASEAN(Major
Countries)
CHINA INDIA OECD North
America
OECD Europe OECD Pacific
moto
rizationindex
totalnumberofvehicles(inmillio
ns)
Total Vehicles (in millions) Motorization Index (V/1000 P)
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Ambient Air Quality in Asian Cities
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60
80
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120
PM10 NOX SOX
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
WHO Guidelines(1 year)EU Standard (1 year)
USEPA Standard(1 year)
Source: CAI-Asia Center
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PM Emissions from transport (BAU)
9Source: 2009. ADB, CAI-Asia, and Segment Y Ltd.,
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50
100
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200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2005 2008 2015 2025 2035
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
Indonesia
India
China
Thousandtons
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CO2 Emissions from Transport (BAU)
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2005 2008 2015 2025 2035
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
Indonesia
India
China
Srilanka
Nepal
Malaysia
South Korea
Bangladesh
Singapore
Pakistan
Years
CO
2EMISSIONS/YEAR(MillionTons)
Source: 2009. ADB, CAI-Asia, and Segment Y Ltd.
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Impact on Public Health
Study in Hanoi,Vietnam showscritical exposurelevels for PM10
Average exposureof about 500 g/m3
for walking andriding motorcycles!
People exposed are
mostly the middleand lower class inthe society
11Source: Saksena, et al. 2008. East-West Center, USA
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Asian Short term Results Similar To US, Europe:HEI Meta-Analysis of Asian Studies of Daily MortalityPublic Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA)
28 recent daily time
series studies examined
Studies find effects of
air pollution on rate ofdeath, illness
~0.5% increase for every
10 g/m3 of PM10
High levels of air
pollution in Asian cities(>100 g/m3)
Likely a substantial public
health impact
0.46 0.62 0.49
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Percent
Increase
US(90 Cities)* Eur(21 Cities)* Asia (4 Cities)
Percent Increase in Mortality per 10
micrograms PM10
* Estimates Using Pre-GAM Results(without revision)
Source: Greenbaum, et al. 2007. Health Effects Institute, USA
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Achieving sustainable transport
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Urban/Transport
Planning and Demand
Management
Public Transport &
Non Motorized
Transport
Cleaner and Efficient
Fuels and Vehicles
Freight and LogisticsTOOLS
AIR POLLUTION
CLIMATE CHANGE
ROAD SAFETY
SOCIAL EQUITY
CONGESTION
NOISE POLLUTION
EXTERNALITIES
PLANNING
REGULATORY
ECONOMIC
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGICAL
TOOLS
GovernmentDevelopment
Institutions
Civil Society Private Sector
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Emission Standards New Light-Duty Vehicles
Country 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
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8European
UnionE1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
BangladeshaEuro
2
BangladeshbEuro
1
Hong Kong,
ChinaEuro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5
Indiac Euro1
Euro 2 Euro 3
Indiad E1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4
Indonesia Euro 2
Malaysia Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4
Nepal Euro 1
Pakistan Euro 2 a b
Philippines Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4
PRCa Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4
PRCe Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Beijing only
Singaporea Euro 1 Euro 2
Singaporeb Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4
Sri Lanka Euro 1 Euro 2f
South Korea Euro 4 Euro 5
Taipei, US Tier 1 US Tier 2 Bin 7g
Thailand Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4
Viet Nam Euro 2E
4
14Source: CAI-Asia, 2010
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Fuel Quality Standards (levels of sulfur in diesel)
> 500 ppm 51 500 ppm < 50 ppmSource: CAI-Asia, 2010
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bangladesh 5000
Cambodia 2000 1500
Hong Kong, 500 50 10a
India (nationwide) 5000 2500 500 350
India (metros) 5000 2500 500 350a 50a
Indonesia 5000 3500 350
Japanb
500 50 10Malaysia 5000 3000 500c 500d 50
a
Pakistan 10000 7000c 500
Philippines 5000 2000 500
PRC (nationwide) e,f 5000 2000 2000 & 500
PRC - Beijing 5000 2000 500 350 50
Singapore 3000 500 50
South Korea 500 430 100 30 15(10)fSri Lanka 10000 5000d 500
Taipei, 3000 500 350 100 50
Thailand 2500 500 350 150 50
Viet Nam 10000 500
European Union 500 50(10)f 10
United States 500 15
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Philippines: PM and NOx reduction from moving
from Pre-Euro to Euro II
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150
200
1995 2008 2015 2025 2035
1000Tons
PM Emissions w/ Euro Standards
PM Emissions w/out Euro Standards
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450
600
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900
1995 2008 2015 2025 2035
1000Tons
NOx Emissions w/ Euro Standards
NOx Emissions w/out Euro Standards
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PM reduction if Philippines moved from Euro II to
Euro III
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10
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1995 2008 2015 2025 2035
1000tons
PM Emissions w/ Current Euro Standards PM Emissions w/ Higher Euro Standards
Emission savings
Source: CAI-Asia analysis, Segment Y data
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Fuel Price PolicyFuels Price
Gasohol 95-E10 31.74 Baht/L
Gasohol 95-E20 29.44 Baht/L
Gasohol 95-E85 18.74 Baht/L
Gasohol 91-
E1030.94 Baht/L
Gasoline 95 40.34 Baht/LGasoline 91 35.34 Baht/L
Diesel 28.19 Baht/LDiesel B5 26.79 Baht/L
FuelPrice
MarketingMargin Price fromRefinery VAT7%
Ex-Refin. ExciseTax VATMunicipalTax Oil Fund Consv.Fund
Petroleum Fuel Price Price Structure of PetroleumProduct
Source: Manwipa Kusaon, PCD Thailand, 2009
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Summary
Business-as-usual scenarios point to continued high emissions
of PM and as well as CO2 and will also result to high levels of
fuel consumption, continued traffic congestion, traffic
accidents
High levels of exposure to air pollution causing morbidity and
mortality
Need for integrated framework such as EST in order to
address this problem
Need for a timeline for implementing stricter vehicle
emissions standards and fuel quality
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Objectives of the Workshop
Draft a roadmap for the introduction of Euro 4 fuel and vehicular
technology in Pakistan in consultation with major stakeholders
Update the major stakeholders on the actions taken and planned by
the Government of Pakistan vis--vis implementation of the Euro 2
vehicle emission standards and fuel specifications in Pakistan Encourage the participation and secure the buy-in of other sectors
in the implementation of these standards
Share information with stakeholders on trends in fuel and vehicle
quality in Asia and other regions of the world
Identify a set of recommendations and tentative time-line that will
then form the inputs for an action plan
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Breakout Sessions
Financing issues
How much do we need to improve fuel quality?
Who pays? And how does it impact the society and the
economy?
What kind of policies (economic and institutional) does thisrequire?
Technical issues
What does it take to establish vehicle emission standards?
What is the impact on existing vehicles? What are complementary policies needed? e.g. inspection and
maintenance
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7/12/2013 22
Sophie Punte, Executive [email protected]
Glynda Bathan, Policy and Partnerships [email protected]
Bert Fabian, Transport Program Manager
Sudhir Gota, Transport [email protected]
Alvin Mejia, Environment [email protected]
Unit 3510, 35th floorRobinsons-Equitable Tower
ADB Avenue, Pasig CityMetro Manila 1605
Philippines
www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia
CAI-Asia Center
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