best practice for ensuring quality in international statistics - the principal global indicators -...
TRANSCRIPT
Best practice for ensuring quality in international statistics
- The Principal Global Indicators -
Werner Bier, Per Nymand-AndersenEuropean Central Bank
Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities (CCSA)
Conference on quality in international Statistics, Athens, 29 May 2012
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• Policy needs for International Statistics
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• Statistical challenges
Ensuring quality and best practice •Concepts and methodology•Operational set-up
• Principle Global Indicators (PGIs)
Overview
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1 4 2 3 International Statistics
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Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination
The financial and sovereign debt crisis has revealed that
• Interconnectedness and interdependence among open economies play an important role in the size, nature and policy responses of systemic risks
• Systemic risks depend on the collective behaviour of financial intermediaries, markets, infrastructures and depends on the interaction between the financial
system and the real economy
1 Policy needs for International Statistics
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Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination
• Policy responses remain mainly bound to the national territory (exceptional cases supranational (e.g. ECB))
• Multilateral policy responses are crucial for mitigating risks to financial stability and for creating strong, sustainable and balanced growth
• Multilateral policy responses require enhanced and global comparable economic and financial statistics and indicators
1 Policy needs for International Statistics
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Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination
• Group of 20 (G20) Leaders' requested a range of statistical indicators to identify large imbalances among economics (Seoul Summit)
• The main priority actions relate to reduce excessive imbalances and to maintain current account imbalances at sustainable levels
• For this purpose, a set of comparable statistical indicators is required
1 Policy needs for International Statistics
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Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination
1 Policy needs for International Statistics
• Main comparable international indicators:
public debt and fiscal deficits
private savings rate
private debt
external imbalance
• Easy accessibility of official statistics/indicators
• G20 and Global statistical aggregates (e.g. G20 GDP)
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Concepts and methodology
• International statistical standards are available
• Fundamental Principles and agreed Quality frameworks exist
• Excellent international and regional networks and governance among national statistical agencies and international organisations are in place
• Data exchange formats among international and supranational organisations (SDMX) are developed
Ensuring quality and best practice 2
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Operational set-up
The key statistical challenges lie in the ability to
• coordinate among the network of international and national authorities
• synchronise the various statistical activities
• converge and apply a common set of statistical concepts, guidance and methodological notes
• governance assessments – check and balances
Ensuring quality and best practice 2
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Operational set-up
• Do the statistical authorities agree on the detailed statistical requirements ?
• Have the international statistical standards been applied ?
• Is the data flow from national authorities to international organisations synchronised ?
• Limited (timely) G20 and Global aggregates available (G20 quarterly growth rates)
If statisticians do not deliver – the market will
Ensuring quality and best practice 2
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First results to meet G20 demands
Principal Global Indicators (PGIs)
Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics
BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF, OECD, UN and the World Bank
Focus on
• the G20 economies plus 5 non-G20 Financial Stability Board (FSB) countries
• key economic and financial statistics and indicators
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Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) 3
First results to meet G20 demands
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First results to meet G20 policy demandExternal debt /Real GDP
Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) 3
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Statistical challenges
The PGIs will be further enhanced to
• comply with the data transmission standard SDMX
• support visualisation tools
• include additional G20 and global aggregates
• become a supporting tool for G20 policies
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Statistical challenges
The Inter-Agency Group therefore continues to work on the (detailed) statistical requirements:
Agreement on detailed reporting templates (coverage, frequency, timeliness, adjustments)
Tier 1: Core Aggregates; Tier 2: Detailed breakdowns; Tier 3: Specificities of the individual economy
Agreement on the data flow among the international organisations, including
the related quality management
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Statistical challenges
The Inter-Agency Group members aim at
• applying common reporting templates and implementation plans
a pilot project on sector accounts and their integration with e.g. government finance statistics and securities issues statistics
• synchronising the data sources/flow and quality monitoring (Who does what by when)
• applying the SDMX concept to the PGIs
• involving the G20 economies where needed
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• Official statistics is called upon to support multilateral surveillance policies in a world of global imbalances and uneven global recovery (G20 policy driven needs)
• The international and national statistical authorities have the statistical, technical and organisational skills to master this challenge (close cooperation)
• Pilot exercises are needed to prove effective international cooperation by releasing comparable and timely international statistics
• The policy needs are there. If the statistical authorities can not deliver, the market will replace them
Conclusions 4