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Betfair Unlocked

Concepts of the Betfair Secret Manual

Http://www.BetfairSecret.com

Copyright 2007 © Betfair Secret

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Table of Contents

The Betting Exchanges Page 03

The Betting Odds Explained Page 05

European Method Page 06

British Method Page 06

Betfair Busted Page 07

The Markets Page 09

Configuring Betfair Page 10

Backing Page 11

Laying Page 12

Placing a Bet Page 14

Trading Page 15

Liquidity Page 17

Weight of the Money Page 19

Unmatched Money & The Markets Page 20

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The Betting Exchanges I'm sure that most of you are already aware of what the Betting Exchanges involve as well as what they are. If not, the betting exchanges provide a virtual market place for punters from around the world to bet against one another in various sporting events. The betting exchanges have recently evolved and it all started with the most popular exchange of them all: Betfair. One of the most unique characteristics about the exchanges, is that they allow anybody to bet “in play” and the addition of “lay bets” – allowing you to bet against a certain event happening, thus putting you in the shoes of the bookmaker. This refers to betting while an event is going on which means the odds change accordingly to what is happening to the event in play. The betting exchanges allow you to make as much money as you want due to the fact that they lose nothing! They just take a slice of commission off of every bet that you win. This means that the exchanges cannot lose and in turn means they are very profitable. In light of this – they will never lose out which means that the betting exchanges will be around for a very long time and enable you to build your fortune using them as a medium. All of the various betting exchanges provide bets in two forms. Back bets and Lay bets. Backing allows a punter to bet on a selection to win, while laying allows a punter to bet on a selection to lose. Here of are a few of the most popular exchanges around the

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internet. This manual is Betfair centric as well as the actual “Betfair Secret” manual. We strongly recommend you get a Betfair account though.

http://www.betfair.com

http://www.betdaq.com

http://www.betsson.com

http://www.ibetx.com

http://www.backandlay.com

http://www.parabet.com

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The Odds The odds – Also known as “prices” are basically the essence of betting. They decide on our profits, losses and theoretical chances of winning or losing a bet. A favourite has the shortest priced odds, in other words – the lowest odds of all the other competitors in a race for example. The outsider is the selection with the highest odds. There are two widely known representation of the odds. The European method and the British method. The European method displays the odds in decimal format. The Betting exchanges all use decimals to display their odds. The British method displays the odds as fractions. Something everyone should take note of, is that the odds on the betting exchanges tend to trade at higher prices. This is known as “Overround”, which is the extra money standard bookmakers take. This “higher” price is not always a true reflection due to the fact that Betfair takes a 5% commission on everything that is won. Another pointer about the odds on the betting exchanges, is that they tend fluctuate constantly. For example a selection priced at 3.0 can suddenly move to 2.98 and then up to 3.05 within a matter of seconds. It all depends on the money coming in on either back or lay side.

On the next page, I will run through the main differences

between the two methods of displaying odds, including a few

examples.

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European Method - (decimals) Decimal odds, which are used on all the betting exchanges such as Betfair, are displayed in decimal format. Odds such as 3.20, 1.22 and 1.65 are displayed on the various exchanges. The odds on the exchanges range from 1.01 to 1000. 1.01 being the lowest possible odds to take and 1000 being the highest available price. When you have odds of 1.01 you should heavily expect to win and virtually never lose. Odds or 1000 – you have no chance. British Method - (fractions) The British method, which is used by most standard bookmakers such as bet365, Coral and so on, display their odds as fractions, in the form of 4/1, 7/4 and 9/4. When you get odds of 1/1, this is said to be “evens” which is the equivalent of 2.0 in decimal form. Anything less that 1/1, such as 1/3. These odds are not too important seeing we wont be using them when applying the system because the system is Betfair, or in other words, “Betting exchange orientated”. To Convert from fractions to decimal odds you do the following: Take the fraction such as 7/4. Take the top and divide by the bottom. 7 divided by 4 = 1.75 Now take your answer and add 1.0 1.75 + 1.0 = 2.75

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Betfair Unlocked Betfair is the biggest of all the exchanges. It has by the most registered users compared to the rest of the exchanges and there are tens of thousands of people who place bets in the various available markets on a 24/7 basis. All Betfair does is supply the user interface and keep track of where every punters money is going. They take a commission on everything you win. If you were to point your browser to http://sports.betfair.com you would see the following screen:

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Towards the top of the screen you will see a “Join Now” link. Click this link. It will then bring up a box where you have to fill in your various details in order to register an account.

While entering your details, you will also see a “refer and

earn” box.

give you a free £20.

This happens once you have reached 50 Betfair points. This is

roughly the equivalent of staking £100.

Once you have registered on the site, have a look around and get used to the general layout. On the left hand side of the screen, you will notice the various sporting events, listed in alphabetical order.

All you have to do is type in the code 6HEEWNYQH which will

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The Markets

When you open http://sports.betfair.com This screen can be found on the left hand side of the Betfair introduction / homepage screen. If you have still not registered, please do so ASAP at http://sports.betfair.com and use the sign up code. The purpose of the Trade Formula Manual is related to Horse racing. You will notice I have highlighted the two horse racing markets in a red block on the screenshot to the left of this description. We will now begin discussing the more important factors relating to Betfair such as backing, laying and trading.

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Configuring Betfair

This configuration setup will allow you to know how much profit you stand to make and how much money you stand to lose. It is very simple to configure.

In every single Betfair market, there is a refresh button. Just above the button is the “options” menu. Click this menu.

Tick all the available boxes in order to make you profits / losses display. This will be useful later on.

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Backing

Backing is a fairly easy concept to understand. It is the same

method as placing a bet with a standard bookmaker, such as

Bet 365 and so on.

Backing means that you are betting on a selection to win. The

back odds can be seen in the purple/bluish

Take the above screenshot for example, say we wanted to back

the favourite, “Benny The Bus” in this race. The odds as you

can see, are at 1.83. If we were to put £100 on the favourite

and it were to end up winning the race, we would make a total

of £183,00. This includes a profit of £83,00 minus the £100

stake money.

For another example, say we placed £10 on “Mister Jingles” at

8.2. If Mister Jingles were to go on and win the race, we

would win £82.00 minus our £10 stake which is a profit of

£72.

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Laying

Laying works in a completely different manner to backing. It

virtually allows you to act as the bookmaker. This is not as

much of a difficult concept than you may think, seeing many

people fail to grasp lay betting.

Lay betting is betting on a specific event “Not” to happen.

Take the screenshot as an example below

In this screenshot, the favourite “Jost Van Dyke” has odds of

2.72 to LAY (note the highlighted block). Please note that the

lay column is situated on the right and is highlighted in pink

for anyone who is unsure.

If we were to place a £10 LAY bet on Jost Van Dyke, we are

saying that the horse will not win this race. However, placing

£10 pounds has an advantage and disadvantage.

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Advantage: You will win £10 back instantly

Disadvantage: You can loose 2.72 x £10 (minus stake money)

This is known as your liability. It is the amount of money you

may lose if the selection ends up winning a race.

To calculate liability, take the odds. In this case, they are 2.7

and multiply them by your stake, which is £10. This gives you

a total of £27. You must then subtract your £10 stake, which

would give you a total of £17.

This £17 is the amount you would be liable for, if Jost Van

Dyke were to WIN this race. If it were to not win, you would

make the amount that you staked. In this case it would have

been another £10. It is risky, but can be a very profitable

betting method if you learn to use it correctly and at the right

time.

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Placing a Bet Let us take the following market as the example here. Say for example, we want to back “Benny the Bus”. To place our bet, click on the purple back bet option. You‟ll notice the block indents it a bit on the odds of 1.81.

You will then see a betting box popup on the right hand side of your screen. See the below screenshot.

You will notice the box is arranged in order of selection name,

then the odds and then the stake box.

Next to the odds you‟ll notice an up and down arrow. It allows

you to change the odds there if you want to request a higher

back odds price.

Once you enter your stake in the stake box, click the “submit”

button which is located at the bottom right of the window.

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Trading

This is a very important section as it forms the core system of

the Betfair System.

The backbone of trading is placing a back and lay bet on the

same selection. The only difference is that the odds for the

BACK bet must be higher for the odds of the LAY back.

To give you an example using calculations:

Lets say there is a horse race.

The horse is priced at 2.90 to back and 2.92 to lay.

Say we place a £100 back bet at 2.90….

£100 x 2.90 = £290 – the stake which is a profit of £190. Lets

say the odds for the horse now drop down to 2.30. We then

place a £100 lay bet at odds of 2.30.

£100 x 2.30 = £230 – the stake which is a liability of £130

Profit – Liability = Trade

£190 - £130 = £60

This will mean if the selection were to win the race we would

make £60. If the selection were to lose the race we would

break even, which is how trading actually works.

Take the following screenshot as an example. (note Betfair commission is deducted)

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Please note that the first screen shot came just after the start of a race. The second screenshot was during the race. This will explain why the odds are so different and the difference between the back/lay amounts in column two are so large.

Say we placed a £10 lay bet on Gaelic Flight at odds of 2.8, as you can see, if the horse wins the race we will be payout out £18 as our liability. If it does not win, we will be winning £10. The next screenshot shows how the odds have changed over a few seconds. Say we were to now place a back bet of £10 at odds of 4.4. This profit would be £34, if the horse were to win

Now, seeing these two bets have both taken place on the same horse, the outcome will be as follows. 1 lay bet of £10 at odds of 2.8, giving us a liability of £18 and 1 back bet of £10 at odds of 4.4, giving us a potential profit of £32.30. This would be a trade (had it been on the same horse). We would then be left with Profit (£32.30) – Liability (£18) = trade £32.30 - £18 = £14.30 (as seen below)

This means if Gaelic Flight wins, you make £14.30 profit. It he

loses, you break even. This is a free bet! In other words, an

actual trade!

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Liquidity

Market liquidity refers to how much money is in a market and

is going into a market at a specific time. Some markets are of

high liquidity while others are low. It basically depends on the

popularity of an event.

A British horse race has a massively high liquidity. Close to

about 700,000 pounds is traded on it before the off. Another

event with a very high liquidity is an English premier league

football match.

Low liquidity events such as the greyhound races and

American horse races, only have a few thousand pounds

traded on them.

The difference between the two liquidity markets is that in a

high liquidity market, price changes do not happen at a rapid

pace, compared to the low liquidity markets where price

changes are very common and can jump from 3.2 to 4.5

within a matter of seconds.

A good place to spot whether or not a market is of high

liquidity is the amount of „matched money‟ on the market.

This figure appears just below the refresh button on that

specific Betfair market.

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Weight of the Money Prices on Betfair are influenced by the amount of people backing and laying a selection. More money in the back column means the price will RISE. More money in the lay column means the price will FALL. This is determined by the amounts of money coming in on either side of the back and lay columns, basically known as liquidity, as already discussed. If there is more money in the back column, the price is going to rise once the money has been matched. If there is more money in the lay column, the price is going to fall. Take this screenshot below as an example

Applying the concepts highlighted in bold above, you will

notice that there is by far more money in the lay column that

the back column which means the price of the selection is

going to fall.

A few seconds later the screenshot will look like this:

You will notice that the weight of the money concept has

cause the price to fall because punters are all scrambling over

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one another trying to get in their best bets forcing the price

down.

In other words it means far more people are trying to BACK

this horse than lay it which causes no one to want to match

the odds by laying. This means punters who are backing the

horse are forced to place lower odd bets in the hope they get

matched.

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Unmatched Money & How Exchanges Work

This is a concept that not many people understand. Exactly

“how” the exchanges work and the unmatched money figures.

Take the below example screenshot

Say you wanted to place a lay bet at odds of 2.64 for £10.

There is £23 waiting to be matched at odds of 2.64.

This means that someone is trying to back the horse of odds at

2.64 and is waiting for someone to come match it by laying it.

The same goes for the back odds of 2.62. There is £46 waiting

to be matched. If you were to place a back bet of 2.62 for £10,

you are just matching somebody‟s lay bet of 2.62.

If you tried to place a BACK bet of £10 at odds of 2.64, your

money would appear in the LAY column of 2.64 and your £10

would be added to that £23 which is still waiting to be

matched.

If you placed a BACK bet of say 2.68, for £100, your money

would be added to the lay column side under 2.68 and the

amount of money underneath the odds would then read

£1221, unless some of it gets matched during the time of

placing the bet. This is unlikely due to the fact that it is 3rd in

the queue.