beyond copenhagen the green race is on copenhagen –the green race is on ... michigan state...

Michigan State University

World Business Council for

Sustainable Development

Beyond Copenhagen – The Green Race is on


Björn Stigson, WBCSD President

1

Michigan State University 2

Coalition of some 200 leading companies

• Market capitalization: 8,000 BUSD

• Total member company employees:13 million

• Global outreach

– Supplies products and services to half of the world’s

population every day

WBCSD


WBCSD Membership

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21

18

14

13

13

12

12

11

11

10

10

8

7

6

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2

2

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21

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121211

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64

44 222111

Utilities & Power

Oil & Gas

Consumer Goods

Mining & Metals

Engineering

Cement

Chemicals

Services

Tires

Forest & Paper Products

IT & Telecoms

Auto

Banks & Insurance

Construction

Food & Beverages

Healthcare

Maritime

Logistics

Media

Retail

Aviation

Trading

Water Services


WBCSD Membership

4

68

40

24

18

16

117 21

Europe (EU)

North America (NAFTA)

Japan

Europe (non-EU)

Asia (ex-Japan)

Latin America

Oceania

Africa

Middle East

68

40

24

18

16

11

7

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WBCSD Regional Network

Channel to globally disseminate WBCSD’s messages, to

promote implementation of concrete projects on the ground

and to provide input to WBCSD work program


Agenda

1. The Surrounding World

2. WBCSD Work Program

3. WBCSD Strategy

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A World in Transition to Sustainability

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Society

Economy Environment


The Future Society: A growth story

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1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: United Nations Population Division, World

Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

World population (in Billions): 1950-2050

85%

15%

Population in less developed countries

Population in more developed countries

2010= 6.9 billion

2050= 9.2 billion

+33%

85%

15%


Income poverty:

Over 2 billion people live on less than $2/day

Energy poverty:

1.6 billion people today without access to electricity

Mobility poverty:

900 million people without access to transport

Water poverty:

1.8 million deaths per year due to lack of sanitation,

poor hygiene and unsafe drinking water.

Development: The Poverty Challenge

9


The Urbanized Future

10

Chicago

Berlin

Paris

New York

London

1900

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Mexico City

Dhaka

Delhi

Mumbai

Tokyo

2020

Billions of inhabitants

47% urban

60% urban

1970 2000 2030

36% urban

urban

rural

70% urban

3.2 3.32.9

5.0

1.3

2.42.8

6.4

2050

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects:

The 2007 Revision

Source: Citymayors statistics, 2008

Growth of mega-cities

70% urban in 2050: 6 billion

2010: 3 billion


Shifting Fortunes

11

Emerging economies > 50% of global GDP

and trend will continue

So

urc

e: A

ng

us M

ad

dis

on

, OE

CD

; IMF

Fro

m T

he

Eco

no

mis

t prin

t ed

ition

.

“Wre

stlin

g fo

r influ

en

ce

.” Ju

ly 3

rd 2

00

8.

% Share of GDP

0

20

40

60

80

1913 1950 2005 2025

Emerging economies Developed economies

* At purchasing-power parity


Vision 2050

12

Vision 2050: Nine billion

people living well, and

within the limits of the planet

A platform for dialogue

about the role of business in

a resource & carbon

constrained world.


Living well, within limits of the planet

13

Human Development Index (HDI)

Eco

logic

al F

oo

tprin

t (G

lob

al H

ecta

res p

er

Pe

rson

)

So

urce: G

FN

/ UN

DP


Innovations & Transformations

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15

Geography

SolutionsR

egula

tions

Infrastructure

Technolo

gy

Mindsets

Society

Economy Environment


Where will global leadership come from?

– WTO Doha Round?

– COP 15 Copenhagen?

– Financial system?

– UN?

– G-8, G-20, G-2?

Global Governance?

16


The Economy of my country?

Key political concerns:

– Economic growth

– State of public finances

– Jobs/unemployment

“Green Growth”: A part of the solution?

Governments – Short Term

17


The Public is demanding more regulation


“The Green Race is on” between countries to

transform to low carbon economies and to

become the leading supplier of resource

efficient technologies & solutions

If you want to win:

oTransform your home market to build competences

and scale

The World is Turning Green

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Key transformations:

oEnergy

oTransport

oUrban infrastructure

oFood

oWater


20


Less oil, more renewables and more nuclear

Reduced carbon intensity of existing energy:

CCS, sinks

A focus on smart technology solutions:

– energy efficiency

– smart grids

Demand side management

New business models in the energy industry

Increased electrification of transportation

Pressure on affordable energy for development

Value for carbon - carbon taxes/emissions trading

A Transformed Energy System

21


Additional investments to reach 450 ppm

22WBCSD 2010 Liaison Delegate Meeting –

Montreux

SOURCE

IEA- ETP, 2010


The Food Challenge

Source: FAO Stat 2009, UN population Division (2006), PwC Analysis


Consequences for food consumption patterns and

lifestyles?

Agriculture and forestry = 30% global GHG

emissions (IPCC 4th assessment)

Livestock is the world’s largest user of land

resources (70% of agricultural land)

– Major driver for deforestation

Food, Agriculture & Land-use changes

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Water: The challenge

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Japan:

o Leader on energy efficient solutions

o Started action after the oil crisis in the 70’s


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EU:

o Leader today / 40% market share

o Announced in October a 300% increase in R&D

for green technologies

o But, is spending level sufficient and is the EU

building a domestic green market fast enough?

27


US

o The new administration is mobilizing the US

innovation capacity to be world leader on green

technologies

o Jeffrey Immelt, CEO General Electric, March 3,

2010:

“Let’s not take this growth industry and give it to

every other country in the world but the U.S”


28


China

o Wants to be the leading exporter of green

technologies

o Key component of next 5-Year Plan (2011-2015)

o China PM Wen Jiabao, NPC March 5, 2010:

o “We urgently need to transform the pattern of

economic development… We will work hard to

develop low-carbon technologies”

o John Doerr, Kleiner Perkins, March 5, 2010:

o “My conclusion is China is winning… The

results of their policies are staggering.”


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India

o Supplier of low cost solutions based on domestic

demand from a big & poor population?

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“...while governments provide the

necessary policy framework, the real

solutions must come from business.

Copenhagen did not provide us with a

clear agreement in legal terms, but the

political commitment and sense of

direction toward a low-emissions world

are overwhelming. This calls for new

partnerships with the business sector and

I now have the chance to help make this

happen”

– Yvo de Boer, 2010

Growing role of business

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Business needs to be clear on what we

can contribute and the support we need

to deliver solutions

– Technology deployment frameworks

– Price signals for consumers and businesses

– Regulations and Standards

– R&D cooperation

The Role of Business

32


WBCSD Work Program

Focus Areas

- Water

- Buildings

- Forest Products

- Cement

- Electricity

Utilities

- Tires

-Mobility

- Mining

Projects

- Eco Patent

Commons

- Maritime

Energy and

Climate

The Business Role

Initiatives

• Urban Infrastructure• Sustainable Value Chains

• Urban Infrastructure

• Sustainable Value

Chains

Systems Solutions


Energy and Climate


Global Emission Scenarios

35

Source: IEA. ETP 2008


The importance of energy efficiency is

growing

36

SOURCE: IEA WEO 2009

Total(2030) = 13840 MT

Efficiency= 57%


Climate Scorecard

37

Countries

outside the

Kyoto

Protocol

Emission

trend 1990-

2007

USA + 16%

Mexico + 42%

Brazil + 47%

India + 78%

China + 116%

Countries

within the

Kyoto

Protocol

Kyoto

target

Emission

trend

1990-2007

Russia 0% - 33%

Germany - 15% - 21%

UK - 15% - 17%

France - 15% - 5%

Italy - 15% + 7%

Japan - 6% + 8%

Canada - 6% + 26%

SOURCE: Allianz SE & WWF, 2009


Takeaways:

Copenhagen saw the end of old ways of

intergovernmental negotiations

Climate change is elevated on national

agendas

– NOT as an environmental concern, but as an

energy, trade and development issue

The Copenhagen Accord

– A non binding “Letter of Intent”

– But little clarity on how this will be implemented

COP 15 Copenhagen

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Main elements: – Committed limiting global warming to 2°C

– Encouraged pledges of cuts from

developed countries and actions from

developing countries

– Agreed to transparent reporting of actions

– Proposed new mechanisms to manage

finance, technology and REDD+• Committed $10-100 bln annually over next 10

years

The Copenhagen Accord

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Pledges by January 31, 2010

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Pledges and actions to 2020

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Target Base

year

Purchases of

emissions credits

from other countries

Comparison with

emissions from

1990 2005

Japan -25% 1990 ? -25% -30%

EU (27) -20% 1990 Yes -20% -13%

USA -17% 2005 ? -4% -17%

China -40-45%

carbon

intensity

2005 ? In 2020:

-12% vs. BAU

India -25% carbon

intensity

2005 ? In 2020:

-9-19% vs. BAU

Brazil -36-39% vs.

BAU

2020 ? In 2020:

36-39% vs. BAU

South

Africa

-34% vs. BAU 2020 ? In 2020:

-34% vs. BAU


1. Climate change is not a priority for all

2. Whose carbon is it?

3. What type of commitments are countries

willing to accept? National sovereignty?

4. Support to developing countries?

5. Competition concerns; a level playing field?

6. Robustness of climate science and IPCC

conclusions?

7. Domestic US legislation?

Stumbling Blocks in the international

climate negotiations

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All believe developing clean energy is a priority

Majority supports EPA regulation of CO2

US & Climate Change

43

2010, Yale/George Mason University


Bottom-up country pledges for action with

bilateral/regional agreements

A global umbrella agreement:

– Copenhagen Accord elements

– System for a global carbon market, broader than

CDM

– Recognition of sectoral approaches

Transformation of the energy system

Agriculture & land-use changes in focus

The energy, water & food challenge

Climate Change post-COP 15

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Sectoral approaches

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Sectoral Approaches

A way to address competition concerns?

WBCSD: Partnerships:

– Cement - Steel

– Buildings - Aluminum

– Forest Products - ICT

– Electricity Utilities

IEA Technology Roadmaps

– 17 technologies/ industry sectors

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21 major cement producers with

operations in more than 100 countries

– 40% of global production

Leading the way on industry

sectoral approaches

Actions:

– CO2 measuring and reporting

– CDM methodology

Cement Sustainability Initiative

47

Co-Chairs:


Outlines existing and potential

technologies, and how they may help

the industry support a halving of

global CO ₂ emissions

CSI/ IEA Technology Roadmap

48WBCSD 2010 Liaison Delegate Meeting –

Montreux


Power sector crucial to climate

change

Trilogy of policy reports

– “Power to Change: A business

contribution to a low-carbon electricity

future”

Roadmap of sector specific policy

recommendations

Next phase: delivering input into the

IEA, e.g. the new IEA Carbon and

Electricity Report (IEA-CER)

Exploring smart technologies

Electricity Utilities

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Co-Chairs:


Buildings represent 50 % of world

energy use

Energy efficiency is huge business

opportunity both for new buildings as well as

refurbishing of existing ones

Four year project: Bottom-up analysis of 6

sub-markets

Report: “Transforming the Market”

(April 2009)

Cutting building emissions by 50% globally by

2050 is possible at an average abatement

cost of 25USD/tCO2 (PIIE, 2009)

Energy Efficiency in Buildings (EEB)

50

Co-Chairs:


Providing business perspectives on markets,

finance and technologies

– Glion Dialogues

– Cooperation with IEA, World Bank

Support and input to the negotiations

– Technology, REDD+, sectoral approaches

Advisory roles to governments

– China, US, Germany

– EU: contract to develop proposal for a formal business

role in climate negotiations

Provide tools for measurement and reporting

WBCSD Roles on Climate Change

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10+ year collaboration with WRI

Mission to develop internationally accepted

methodologies for measuring and reporting

GHG emissions

Corporate Standard released in 2001 - has

become most widely used international

standard

2 new Standards will be launched by end

2010

– Scope 3 (supply chain) and Product Life Cycle

– Currently being road-tested by 70+ companies

WRI / WBCSD GHG Protocol

52


2020

– Milestone on the pathway to a sustainable world in

2050

A lot of actions/changes must be initiated

2010-2020 for the world to be on a sustainable

trajectory

– “The Turbulent Teens”

WBCSD Strategy 2020

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Vision:

– Everybody living well, within the limits of the

planet.

– Solutions based on strong and efficient

business involvement and partnerships with

other actors in society

Strategy 2020: Vision

54


WBCSD Work Program

Focus Areas

- Water

- Buildings

- Forest Products

- Cement

- Electricity

Utilities

- Tires

-Mobility

- Mining

Projects

- Eco Patent

Commons

- Maritime

Energy and

Climate

The Business Role

Initiatives

• Urban Infrastructure• Sustainable Value Chains

• Urban Infrastructure

• Sustainable Value

Chains

Systems Solutions


System Solutions

Urban Infrastructure

– Buildings, transport, energy, water, waste

Sustainable Value Chains

Water, Energy, Climate & Food

“Smart Solutions” based on ICT

– Electricity grids, mobility, logistics,

appliances, buildings

WBCSD Strategy: Key Issue I

56


Sustainable consumption

– Efficiency & technology alone will not be

enough

– Lifestyles/ demand-side management

WBCSD Strategy 2020: Key Issue II

57

Raw Material Acquisition

ProductionDistribution

& RetailUse End of Life

SUSTAINABLE

CONSUMPTIONSUSTAINABLE VALUE CHAIN


Talent & Skills: People matter

The transition to sustainability requires more

skilled human resources

Competitive advantage through knowledge

and people

WBCSD Strategy 2020: Key Issue III


The Financial sector

The role of the financial sector?

Societal service

vs.

Platform for profit maximization

Measurements of success and risk in the

economy?Societal returns & risks

vs.

Company financial returns & risks

WBCSD Strategy 2020: Key Issue IV

59


Need to create better functioning

cooperation between

governments and business

A lot of diplomacy needed to bring

collective and coherent messages

from business


60


The future is going to be resource

and carbon constrained

Business has a major role to play

as a solution provider to the

transformation to a sustainable

future

Business cannot succeed in a

society that fails


61


www.wbcsd.org

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beyond copenhagen the green race is on copenhagen –the green race is on ... michigan state...

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