Beyond High School,Before Baccalaureate

With support from

The Carnegie Corporation of New York and

The Charles Stewart Mott Foundation

Ambitious National Priorities

I ask every American to commit to at least

one year or more of higher education or

career training. This can be community

college or a four-year school; vocational

training or an apprenticeship. But whatever

the training may be, every American will

need to get more than a high school

diploma.”

President Barack Obama

State of the Union Address

February 24, 2009

Ambitious Goals

Leaders from the public and private sectors have mobilized efforts around college readiness and completion

The Administration’s ESEA Blueprint

♦ “Together, we must achieve a new goal, that by 2020, the United States will once again lead the world in college completion.”

Lumina Foundation’s Big Goal (Goal 2025)

♦ To increase the proportion of Americans with high-quality degrees and credentials to 60 percent by the year 2025

Focus is not just on four-year college

Diploma is a First Step

Nationally, 1.2 million students fail to earn a diploma every year

Communities across the nation still struggle to boost graduation rates

In some way, this is a very concentrated crisis

The Good News

♦ After years of concerted reform efforts, nation seems to be gaining traction on the dropout problem

Diplomas Count 2011

Beyond High School, Before Baccalaureate

The 2011 edition of the report casts a spotlight on the

"Forgotten Third"

Postsecondary pathways between a high school diploma and a four-year college degree

The viability and value of subbaccalaureate education and training

♦ For individuals, society, and the economy

Inside Diplomas Count 2011

Diplomas Count takes stock of the latest resurgence of the long-running “college-for-all” debate

The report's journalism examines

♦ Multiple and meaningful postsecondary pathways short of a four-year degree

♦ Highlighting “Pathways in Action”

• Linked Learning: college prep meets the new career and technical education

• Early college

• Community colleges as key player

• New scrutiny on for-profit institutions

• Counseling postsecondary options

• Costs and benefits of career paths

Commentaries help to untangle the debate

Research

HighlightsDiplomas Count 2011 features original research and analysis from the EPE Research Center

♦ Graduation Rates• State of the nation

• Trends and gaps

• Performance in perspective

• Dropout Epicenters

♦ Economic Dimension• Returns on education

• Subbaccalaureate jobs

♦ State Policy• Defining readiness

• What it takes to graduate

Graduation in the

United States

Nation Turns a Corner

Updated Graduation Analysis

Diplomas Count 2011 features results for the public high school class of 2008, the most recent year of data available

Data source

♦ Common Core of Data (CCD), U.S. Department of Education

♦ Annual census of public schools and districts

Calculation method

♦ Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)

♦ Widely reported, independent source of information

Comprehensive data

♦ Consistent rates available from national to local level

Strengths and limitations

Graduation Rates Rebound

CLASS OF 2008

National graduation rate:

Significant increase after two consecutive years of decline and stagnation

Analysis shows evidence of widespread improvements for class of 2008

♦ Nation as a whole

♦ Most states

♦ All major demographic groups

The Long View

1870

2.0%

1900

6.4%

1940

50.8%

1969

77.1%

2008

71.7%

1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SOURCES: Historical data: U.S. Department of EducationContemporary data: EPE Research Center

At nearly 72 percent for the class of 2008,

the nation’s graduation rate is at its highest

point since the 1980s.

A More Contemporary Perspective

Trends over the past 10 years show broad-based improvements

All Students 71.7

American Indian 53.9

Asian 82.7

Hispanic 57.6

Black 57.0

White 78.4

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Gra

du

ati

on

-ra

te p

erc

en

tag

e

Challenges

Remain

Historical Disparities

Persist

1.2 Million Dropout Each Year

Putting 1.2 million in context

● 1.2 million nongraduates each year

● 6,400 students lost every school day

● 1 student disappears every 27 seconds

4.1 Million 9th Graders in 2007-08

2.9 Million Graduates in 2011

1.2 Million Nongraduates in 2011

Minorities, Males Most At-Risk

Graduation rates are far below the national average for:

♦ Racial and ethnic minorities

♦ Male students

♦ Males from historically underserved groups

71.7

57.6 57.053.9

67.7

52.850.0 48.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mapping Graduation

State-by-State

State graduation rates vary tremendously around the national average of 71.7%

Top states (80% or higher)

♦ New Jersey (1st)

♦ Vermont

♦ Wisconsin

♦ North Dakota

Bottom states (60% or lower)

♦ Louisiana

♦ Georgia

♦ South Carolina

♦ New Mexico

♦ Nevada

♦ District of Columbia (51st)43.0

44.3

57.1

58.6

58.8

59.6

61.4

63.9

64.8

65.6

65.8

66.3

66.6

67.0

67.6

69.7

69.7

70.0

71.3

71.7

71.8

71.9

72.6

72.7

72.8

72.8

72.8

73.0

73.3

73.6

74.3

75.6

75.8

75.8

76.5

76.8

76.9

76.9

77.3

77.5

77.7

78.0

78.2

78.7

78.8

79.2

79.6

80.2

81.3

82.7

86.9

71.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

District of ColumbiaNevada

New MexicoSouth Carolina

GeorgiaLouisiana

MississippiFlorida

AlabamaWashington

HawaiiAlaskaTexas

ArizonaDelawareArkansas

Rhode IslandOklahomaWyoming

West VirginiaNew York

UtahOregonVirginia

KentuckyIndiana

North CarolinaCaliforniaColoradoMichigan

OhioIdaho

KansasMontana

MaineMarylandMissouri

TennesseeNebraska

MassachusettsPennsylvania

MinnesotaNew Hampshire

South DakotaIllinois

ConnecticutIowa

North DakotaWisconsinVermont

New Jersey

National Average

Graduation-rate percentage (class of 2008)

Epicenters of the Crisis

Projected

Nongrads District

39,669 New York City

35,568 Los Angeles

16,114 Clark County, Nev.

11,310 Miami-Dade County, Fla.

10,469 Chicago

9,304 Philadelphia

8,039 Detroit

7,852 Houston

7,477 Broward County, Fla.

6,990 Dallas

5,867 Hillsborough County, Fla.

5,550 Duval County, Fla.

5,523 Hawaii (statewide dist.)

5,396 Orange County, Fla.

5,366 Gwinnett County, Ga.

5,044 San Diego

5,000 Palm Beach County, Fla.

4,880 Dekalb County, Ga.

4,787 Charlotte-Mecklenburg, N.C.

4,315 Milwaukee

4,313 Kern Union, Calif.

4,260 Prince George's County, Md.

4,209 Phoenix Union, Calif.

4,109 Memphis, Tenn.

3,963 Albuquerque, N.M.

Just 25 individual districts produce one in every fivenongraduates for the entire nation

♦ A quarter-million students fail to graduate across those 25 districts

Ending on a Positive Note

REMINDERS

♦ Graduation rate for class of 2008 showed dramatic increase from previous year

♦ Improvements were broad-based

♦ Seeing some narrowing of racial gaps (between Blacks and whites)

Findings may show results of years of effort directed toward dropout prevention and reform

Effects of reforms can take years to materialize at a measurable level

The next question: Can the gains be sustained?

Diplomas, Degrees,

and Dollars

Returns to Education

Original Analysis

There is a growing body of data and research on the connections between educational attainment and economic outcomes

In Diplomas Count 2011, we take a fresh look at “returns to education,” with a focus on subbaccalaureate schooling

The American Community Survey 2009 (ACS)

♦ Very large annual survey of residential population (3 million people) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau

♦ Information on: demographics, geography, socioeconomic status, and economic factors (e.g., occupation, employment, earnings)

ACS can generate very detailed and localized results

♦ Just a taste today

The Basics - Education

Thirty-nine million prime working-age adults have some post-high school education but less than a four-year degree

Less than H.S.

13%

H.S. Graduate

26%

Sub-baccalaureate

postsec.

31%B.A.,

graduate, or professional

degree

30%

A.A. degree

28%

No degree

72%

Education and Earnings

Earnings increase steadily with additional schooling

♦ A subbaccalaureate college education offers an annual income premium of $8,000 over a high school diploma

$11,994

$21,989

$29,984

$49,974

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

Less than H.S. H.S. Graduate Sub-baccalaureate postsec.

B.A., graduate, professional degree

Earnings Overlap

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Median Income by Educational Level in $1,000s

(percent distribution of prime working-age adults)

Some College including Associate's Degree

Bachelor's, Graduate, or Professional Degree

High School or Less

About 22 percent of subbaccalaureate

workers have earnings at or above the

median level for workers with four-year

college degrees.

Occupational Profile

Subbaccalaureate Occupations

An original analysis identified 50 occupations where the majority of workers had some college education but less than a four-year degree

Earnings vary considerably

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Low:Massage Therapist$17,991

High:Manager/supervisor of fire-fighting

and prevention workers$72,647

The State

of State Policy

The 2011 Policy Survey

Each year, the EPE Research Center surveys the 50 states and District of Columbia about their policies in a wide range of areas

Meticulous administration and vetting of surveys

Research Center survey and outside sources provide information about:

♦ Defining college and work readiness

♦ Coursetaking requirements for a diploma

♦ High school completion credentials

♦ High school exit exams

♦ Implementation of federal accountability for graduation rates

Defining College Readiness

For the 2010-11 school year, 33 states define what it means to be ready for college

♦ Standards and courses are the most common approaches

♦ Most state definitions have multiple elements

33

20 19

11 10

17

States with college-

readiness definitions

Standards Courses Tests Skills Multifaceted definition

What it Takes to Graduate

Requirements for the Class of 2011

EPE Research Center review of state policies shows relatively little change from prior year

Coursetaking for diploma

♦ 21 credits in average state

Completion credentials

♦ 26 states offer advanced diploma or recognition

♦ 29 states issue alternative credential

High school exit exams

♦ 24 states with exit exam for Class of 2011

♦ All but 3 of those states have an alternative route or appeals process

Accountability for Graduation

States approaching milestone for full implementation of 2008 Title I regulations requiring more rigorous calculation methods and higher standards for graduation

EPE Research Center reviewed state implementation of key graduation provisions related to federal accountability

♦ Calculation methods

♦ Current targets

♦ Improvement targets

Calculation Methods

Goals and Targets

Current targets for graduation rate

♦ Average 81% (up from 77% last year)

♦ Range from 63% to 90%

Final targets for graduation rate

♦ Average 87% (up from 82% last year)

♦ Target is at least 80% in all states

♦ 100% in Georgia and Oklahoma

Improvement targets

♦ At least 2 percentage points in 25 states

Online Resources

From

Education Week and the EPE Research Center

Diplomas Count 2011

Full report plus Web-only features

♦ www.edweek.org/go/dc11

Graduation Briefs for States and Nation♦ www.edweek.org/go/dc11/sgb

Education Counts♦ www.edcounts.org

EdWeek Maps

♦ maps.edweek.org

Beyond High School,Before Baccalaureate

With support from the Carnegie

Corporation of New York and the

Charles Stewart Mott Foundation

Contact the EPE Research Center

Christopher B. Swanson

Vice President, Editorial Projects in Education by email: rcinfo@epe.org

Amy M. Hightower by phone: 301-280-3100

Director, EPE Research Center