beyond knowledge (2) (3) - techcast global€¦ · forecast target impact (-10 to + 10)...

Beyond Knowledge Technology is Creating an Age of Consciousness

Signed copies at author’s discount

William E. Halal, George Washington University and TechCast Global

Copyright W. Halal

TechCast Online Research SystemCollective Intelligence for Tough Questions

• Researchers• Internet• Periodicals• Literature• Interviews• Conferences

• Adoption levels• S-curves• Other Forecasts• Trends Pro/Con

BackgroundData AnalysisScanning Expert

Survey Results

• 150 Experts

• Diverse Sample

• Thought Leaders

• Enter Estimates

• Forecasts• Comments• Validate

Constant Updating and Learning

Status Quo Defined as100 % Uncertainty

30 - 40 % DecreaseIn Uncertainty

30 - 40 % DecreaseIn Uncertainty

Uncertainty about 30%Avg. Error = +1/-3 years

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Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World

The Technology Revolution

3

Moon Base

Replacement Organs 15%

E-Commerce 15%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Energy & Environment

Information Technology

Manufacturing & Robotics

Digital Economy

Medicine &Biogenetics

Transportation Space

AlternativeEnergy 30%

Organic Farming 30%

Biometrics 30%

PersonalMedicine 30%

Child Traits 15%

Cloud/Grid 30%

SmartRobots 30%

Life Extension >0%

Space Tourism

Humans On MarsNeuroTech 15%

Next Gen Planes 15%

Mos

t Lik

ely

Year

Climate Control 15%

Intelligent Cars 30%

E-Health 30%

Aquaculture 70%

Smart Grids 30%

Entertainment 50%

Green Economy 30%

Water Treatment 15%

Hi-Tech Homes 30%

Cancer Cure 15%

Small Vehicles 30%

Genetic Therapy 30%

PowerStorage 30%

Synthetic Biology 15%

Electric Cars 30%

Next Gen.Computers >15%

3DPrinting 15%

Commercial Space

SolarSatellites

GMO 30%

Precision Farming 30%

ThoughtPower 30%

AI 30%

Fuel Cell Cars >0%

NanoTech 30%

Hi-SpeedTrains 30%

Internet of Things 30%

TeleWork 30%

IntelligentInterface 30%

Virtual Reality 30%Virtual

Education 30%E-Gov’t. 30%

Global Brain 50%

Alternative Food 15%

Hybrid Cars 30%

Copyright W. Halal


Energy & Environment

4


Alternative Energy

Highlights from Background Data§ Wind now the biggest source of new energy§ New oil, shale gas, and tar sands - limited and dirty§ Concentrated solar/photovoltaic taking off § Conservation always effective (Lovins)§ Nuclear growing – from 440 plants to 500-600§ Growth of 30-50%/year – similar to Moore’s Law

TechCast Forecast: Alternatives from 21% today to 30% of global energy by 2025 +/- 3 yrs. § Details: Hydro - 5%, bio - 6 to 7%, nuclear - 6 to

8%, wind - 1 to 5%, solar - 1 to 5%, plus conservation, gas, clean coal, etc.

§ Distributed sources in smart grids ~ 2025§ Potential Market ~ $2 trillion/year

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Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World3/19/18

Information Technology


Artificial IntelligenceHighlights from Background Data

§ $1B in ’93, $12B in ’02, $21B in ’07, $36B by 2015§ Speech/emotion/visual interaction, deep learning, robots,

games & simulations, language translation, neural chips

§ Intelligent systems -- Siri, IBM Watson, Microsoft Bing,Wolfram Alpha, Google, self-driving cars, etc.

§ Ubiquitous AI -- GE and IBM building AI systems forhealth care, power grids, auto traffic and everything else

§ IBM, EU, others simulating the human brain § Kurzweil: $1000 PC with power of the brain by 2020§ General AI comparable to humans ~ 2040

TechCast Forecast: Weak AI replaces routine knowledge work ~ 2025 +/- 5 yrsGlobal market saturation ~ US$ 700 billion

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Forecast Target Impact (-10 to + 10)

2018 Extremism Rises +1 nation -2System Failures 33% orgs -1Mature Econ’s Grow 3% GDP +4

2019 Travel Soars $10 T global +2

2020 Services Dominate 50% employ. +3Transparency 50% govt’s. +5Urbanization 60% pop. +1Privacy Dying 50% nations -1

2021 Jobs Failure 10% unemploy. -3Social Responsibility 50% corps. +4Generation Change 50% pop +4Consumerism Grows 67% GDP +4

Social Trends

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2022 Developing Nations Lead 5% GDP +3Legal Pot 33% G20 +3Environment Demands 33% G20 +6Sharing Economy 30% jobs +4

2023 Diversity Spreads 50% G20 +5

2024 Mass Migration 20% pop +3

2025 Working Women 70% families +52026 Education Expands 50% college +62028 Water Wars 3 wars -2

2029 Fertility Falls 1% pop gr +2

2030 Global Ethics 30% pop +5Global Graying 25% pop +5

Forecasts of Timing and Social Impact


Wild Cards Forecasts of Probability and Social Impact

Probability Impact

§ Israel Conquered 2% -4

§ Asteroid Hit 8% -5

§ Nuclear War 9% -7

§ Alien Contact 13% +3

§ UN Collapses 12% -2

§ Paranormal Proven 12% +2

§ Peace in Palestine 14% +4

§ Global Pandemic 16% -4

§ Bank Nationalization 21% +1

§ Democratic Business 26% +3

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§ Global Depression 28% -3§ China Falls 28% -1§ Weather Control 33% +3§ Solar Storm 33% -3§ Space War 33% -4§ Cyber Attack 34% -2 § Human Cloning 36% +2§ Superbugs 37% -3 § Bio Attack 38% -5§ Climate Shift 48% -3§ Singularity Arrives 51% +2§ Energy Weapons 58% -1


2020-2030 Most Likely ScenarioMacro-Forecast of Technology, Social Trends & Wild Cards

Sustainability Green business, GMO, alternative energy, climate control, smart grids, precision farming. How bad will it get?Green Transportation Hybrid/electric smart cars, hi-speed trains, next gen aircraft, hypersonic flightMastery Over Life Replacement parts, DNA testing, body monitoring, cancer cure, life extension, neurotechnologyThreats Across the Spectrum Depression, banking crisis, job loss, pandemic, climate shift, cyber-war, bio-war, etc.Higher-Order Values Social responsibility, transparency, environment, diversity, women, generation X, global ethicsInfinite Knowledge and Intelligence E-everything, global brain, 2nd generation IT (nano, bio, optical, quantum), AI, robotics. Automation of routine thought. What Next?Global Consciousness Beyond knowledge. Crisis of Global Maturity. Restructuring of institutions.

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2015 - Archival Data 2030 - Expert Estimates DifferenceComplex Manual Work Barbers, janitors, farmers, cleaners,

cooks, gardeners, repairmen,

carpenters, dentists, care givers

18% 18% 0%

Routine Work Well-

structured manual and service tasks

easy to automate: factory work,

clerical jobs, driving trucks, etc.

35 17 -18

Service/Knowledge WorkTeaching, law, medicine,

management, the arts and other

professional work likely to be

transformed rather than automated.

35 31 -4

Creative Work Leadership,

entrepreneurship, innovation,

collaboration, strategy, vision, etc.

The next frontier beyond knowledge.

4 15 +11

GMI 0 8 +8

Unemployment 8 11 +3

3/19/18

Forecast of AI and Future JobsOECD Nations in 2030 53 responses at 3/5/16


Trend Analysis§ 15 Trends Driving the MegaCrisis: Climate change,

energy, financial collapse, globalization, terrorism, water, cyberwar, institutional failures , etc.

§ 7 Trends Resolving the MegaCrisis: Alt. energy,

saturation, knowledge, women, youth, long-term trend

Optimism/Pessimism Survey§ 60-70% Probability of Catastrophe or Disaster

§ 30-40% Probability of Muddling Through

ObstaclesLack of leadership, political will, vision, cooperation, etc.

Halal and Marien, The Futurist, Journal of Future Studies, World Affairs

3/19/18

Crisis of Global Maturity


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

4. Industrial Age

5. Service Age

6. Knowledge Age

7. Consciousness Age

3. Agrarian Age

2. Nomadic Age

1. Biological Age

Creation of Life 3.5 Billion BC

Stag

es o

f Evo

lutio

n

Formation of Earth orms

Development of Humans 4 Million BC

Agricultural Revolution 7,000 BC

Take-Off Point: Rise of Great Religions

500 BC to 500 AD

1011 1010 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 Log Years Before 2.500 AD

Pivot Point: From Growth

to Stability 1975

Industrial Revolution 1850 AD

Post-Industrial Revolution 1950 AD

The Life Cycle of Evolution

Information Revolution 2000 AD

Crisis of Global Maturity: 2010-2020 AD

Saturation: Global Order

2050 +/- 20 yrs.

3/19/18

Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World3/19/18


Beyond Knowledge

15

Technology§ Neurotech – Brain prostheses and treatment

§ Thought Power – Brain-computer interface

§ Virtual Reality – Simulating exotic environments

Daily Life§ Media – Consumerism, sex, violence, hype

§ Drugs – Prozac, Modafinil, Marijuana

§ Physical Practice – Yoga, dance, athletics

§ Sexuality

§ Meditation & Prayer

Leadership§ Vision – Common purpose and strategy

§ Creativity – Innovation, entrepreneurship

§ Discipline – Accountability, critical issues

§ Collaboration – Diplomacy, joint problem-solving, soft/smart power

§ Centrist Solutions – Green tax, corporate citizenship, government markets

§ Conflict Resolution – Peace making, arbitration, mediation

§ Servant Leadership – GM Saturn, Good to Great Studies, Japanese

§ Global Citizens and Ethics – Next Gen values, synthesis of world’s religions

Technologies of Consciousness


Institutional Change

§ Business: Digitalization, moral crisis, collaborative enterprise

§ Government: E-government, entrepreneurship, markets

§ Health Care: Patients vs. profits, no performance data

§ Education: Distance learning, MOOCs, cost

§ Auto Makers: Congestion, peak car, environment

§ Military: WMD, cyber warfare, peace-keeping

§ Catholic Church: Misuse of authority, out of touch

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Principles for a Mature World

§ Be Responsible § Stop Fighting and

Start Cooperating § Reform Institutions§ Green Everything § Plan Ahead§ Celebrate Life

3/19/18

YouTHE ENDTHANK

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Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing Worldtechcastglobal www.techcastglobal.com

3/19/18

beyond knowledge (2) (3) - techcast global€¦ · forecast target impact (-10 to + 10)...

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