Beyond Ozone:Integrating Clean Air & Clean Energy

in the 21st Century

Bill HolmanDirector of State Policy

Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions

6th Annual Unifour Air Quality ConferenceLenoir Rhyne UniversityHickory, North Carolina

June 15, 2012

Nicholas Institute’s Mission

Help decision makers create timely, effective, and economically

practical solutions to the world’s most critical environmental

challenges

Future challenges• Protect public health & environmental

quality• Grow the economy• Plan for population growth and demand for

energy services• Ensure affordable, reliable and clean

energy • Comply with CSAPR, MATS, GHG, NAAQS,

Boiler MACT, Coal ash, cooling water…

Past successes

• Attainment of health based standards• Improved visibility in mountains• Cost effective investments • Clean Smokestacks Act of 2002• Improved Regional Planning

– Unifour Air Quality Committee & more• While economic & population growth increased

North Carolinians Support Clean Air

• Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Protecting NC’s air and water is very important to attracting good jobs to the State.

• Strongly agree 55%• Somewhat agree 28%• Somewhat disagree 9%• Strongly disagree 3%• Not sure 6%

Public Policy Polling753 NC Voters April 19-20, 2011

The Big Picture

Cleaner Air and Economic and Job Growth in the US

Between 1970 and 2009 total emissions of the six principal air pollutants fell by 63 percent, while private sector jobs and GDP grew by 86 percent and 204 percent respectively. 1

1Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Census, U.S. Energy Information Administration & air trends from: http://epa.gov/airtrends/

Clean Air Act Save Lives and Protects Public Health2

Cases Avoided Year 2010 Year 2020

Premature Mortality 160,000 230,000

Chronic Bronchitis 54,000 75,000

Non-Fatal Heart Attacks 130,000 200,000

Asthma Attacks 1,700,000 2,400,000

Hospital Admissions 86,000 135,000

Emergency Room Visits 86,000 120,000

School Loss Days 3,200,000 5,400,000

Lost Work Days 13,000,000 17,000,000

Benefits from implementation of the 1990 CAA Amendments2 http://www.epa.gov/oar/sect812/prospective2.html

Benefits > Costs

• Household health costs reduced• Worker productivity increased• New equipment more energy &

resource efficient• Tourism economy in NC mountains

depends upon healthy air and scenic views

Clean Air Policies Support U.S. Environmental Technology Industry

•The costs of pollution control are not just thrown away but show up as increased demand for firms that produce clean technologies

•The United States is the world’s largest producer and

consumer of environmental technologies worldwide

•US exported $43.8 billion worth of environmental technology9 –larger than exports of sectors such as plastics and

rubber products

9 International Trade Administration, US Department of Commerce, 2008 http://web.ita.doc.gov/ete/eteinfo.nsf/068f3801d047f26e85256883006ffa54/4878b7e2fc08ac6d85256883006c452c/$FILE/Full%20Environmental%20Industries%20Assessment%202010.pdf

Economic Opportunities for NC

• Energy Hub in Charlotte

• Clean Tech Cluster in RTP– Smart grid– Electric vehicles– Renewable energy

Economic Opportunities in Unifour

Economic Opportunities IIGoogle & Apple & More

Clean Smokestacks Act

• Provided affordable, reliable & clean electricity

• Put NC ahead of federal rules – All coal fired plants will be scrubbed or

retired by 2013– New gas fired plants built or under

construction

Clean Smokestacks Act

• Spread out compliance costs for Duke Energy and Progress Energy over 11 years – Compliance with Cross State Air

Pollution Rule (CSAPR) & CAIR– Compliance with Mercury & Air Toxics

Rule (MATS)– Other utilities will have 3-5 years to

comply

Clean Smokestacks Act

• Mitigated cost escalation risk• Reduced air pollution• Helped attain air quality standards

– + for economic & environmental health

• Provided public health benefits sooner

Clean Smokestacks

• Created construction jobs• Collaboration between utilities, State and

environmental organizations– Renewable energy standard– Utility business model– Duke – Progress merger

• New paper by David Hoppock, Sarah Plikunas, et al on costs and benefits

Clean Smokestacks Costs

Clean Smokestacks Benefits

21st century integrationnew models; new collaboration

• economy & environment• energy & air quality & climate• transportation & air quality

– conformity• climate & water & energy

– Catawba Wateree Water Mgt Group• water supply & water quality

– NC hydrologic modeling

21st Century Integration

• Electric utility regulation & environmental regulation

• Risk based decision model by Patino & Hoppock

21st Century Integration

• Transportation – air quality – energy - land use > conformity

• Estimate multiple benefits from investments

• Raborn, et al

Unifour AQC

• Local & regional action is critical– Keep it up!

• Energy (and water) efficiency

• Renewable energy• Sustainability • Transportation

Questions?www.nicholasinstitute.duke.ed

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