BeyondRecovery:Transformation!Tourism’sContributiontoCommunityDevelopmentinaNetworkEconomy

AnnaPollockDestiCorpUKLtd.

5thNovember,2009

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IntroductionThispaperisforuseandreflectionbyclientsandaudiencememberswhohaveparticipatedinpresentationsbyAnnaPollockandwhohaveexpressedaninterestincontributingtothediscussionregardingthefutureoftourismandeconomicdevelopmentatthecommunitylevel.Ithasthreeparts:

1. Adiscussionofthereasonwhyindustryleadersneedtochangetheirmindsetfromonethatviewstourismasanindustrytoonethatperceivesitasacomplexnetworkedsystem;

2. Anintroductiontothesixkeychangedriversthatnecessitatesuchashift;and3. Adiscussionofthechangesthattourismmustmaketooperateinacarbon‐constrained,

highlynetworked,creativeeconomy.

ThisPDFversionisfrozenintime(seedatestampinfooter).Theauthorhaspostedanelectronicversionthatwillbecontinuouslyup‐datedandexpandedinresponsetoreaderfeedback;newinformationandideally,successstoriesfromthefield.Thusthisworkisintendedtobeacollaborativeprocessinwhichthereaderisalsocreator.Aneverexpandingreadinglistwillenablereaderstofollowlinesofinquirythatareofpersonalinterest.AChangeinPerceptionWhilefiveyearsinthehistoryofhumanityisamereblinkofaneye,futurehistoriansmayrecognisethiscomingdecadeasmarkingatippingpointinhumandevelopment–aperiodduringwhichacriticalmassofhumanbeingschangedtheirperceptionofhowtheworldworksandhuman’sroleandrelationshipsontheplanetwecallhome.Theseedsforthisshiftweresownbetweenthetwoworldwarsasscientistsdelveddeeperintotheheartoftheatomandrealisedthatobjectiverealitywasanillusion;thattheveryactofobservingsub‐atomicphenomenachangedtheirpropertiesandthatwhatweperceiveassolidisreallyenergyandmatterinconstantmotion.Eventhoughenormousbreakthroughsinthehardscienceswereshakingthefoundationsofourworldview,thecommercialworldcarriedonbusinessasusualdeveloping,refiningand,occasionally,re‐engineering,anindustrialmodelofproductionandconsumptionthathademergedinthelate18thandearly19thcenturies.Thissocalled“industrialworldview”ispremisedontheassumptionofapreciselyworking,fragmented,non‐changing,non‐living,andpredictable‘ClockworkUniverse’,whichisexpressedinthemetaphorsof‘machine’and‘control’.

Themachineimageryledtothebeliefthatstudyingthepartswaskeytounderstandingthewhole.Thingsaretakenapart,dissectedliterallyorfiguratively(aswehavedonewithbusinessfunctions,academicdisciplines,areasofspecialisation,humanbodyparts)andthenputthembacktogetherwithoutanysignificantloss.Theassumptionisthatthemoreweknowabouttheworkingsofeachpiece,themorewelearnaboutthewhole.….i

Thematerialisticworldviewseekstocomprehendtheworldthroughourphysicalsenses.Ittendstooperateontheprinciplebeliefthat,unlessphenomenacanbesensedandmeasured,theyareconsideredeitherunmanageableornotworthmanaging.ThefoundationsofmostbusinessmanagementtheoriespioneeredbythelikesofTaylor,Sloan,andKettering,andtaughtbyHarvardandcountlessotherbusinessschools,werebasedonthismechanisticperspectiveandweredesignedinresponsetotheprolificoutputofindustrialistssuchasFord.…

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…whoseworkersfunctionedaspartsofthemachine,eachcarryingoutaspecified,unvaryingsequenceoftasks.Infact,theappropriatemetaphorformake­and­sellcompaniesisefficient,offer­makingmachines.Suchfirmsarecharacterisedbyreplaceableparts,economiesofscaleandreplaceablepeopleexecutingrepeatableproceduresinaccordancewithprescribedbusinessplans.ii

There’snodisputingthefactthat,intermsofmaterialoutput,thisindustrialmodelhasbeenhighlyproductiveandefficientresultinginvastincreasesinGrossDomesticProduct.Butbytheendofthe1990s,thestabilityneededtosustainthisoutputwasfastdisappearing.Rapidlyshiftingconsumerpreferencescombinedwithboomandbustcyclesandresourceconstraintsnecessitatedadegreeofagilityandresiliencethatcentralised,“hardwired”complexsupplychainscouldnotproduce.Limitationstothemechanisticandhighlycontrolledmethodofproductionanddistributioncoincidedwithagrowingawarenessthattheworldmightnotworkinsuchanorderly,linearfashionafterall.Advancesinmolecularbiology,quantumphysics,astronomy,neuroscienceandnetworkscience(tonamebutafewareas)combinedwithincreasedawarenessofresourceshortagesandtheenvironmentalimpactsofwasteandpollutantstousherinasystemsorecologicalworldviewthatfocusedonnetworksandtherelationshipsconnectingpartsofanetworktoproduceadynamicwhole.Quantumphysicsshowedthattherearenobasicbuildingblocksinnature–subatomicparticlescomeintoformandareobservedonlyastheyareinrelationshiptosomethingelse.Alllivingsystems–fromthehumanbodythroughtotheplanetasawhole–arenowrecognisedascomplexandself‐regulating,comprisingmultipleanddiverse,self‐organisingagentsinconstantrelationshipwitheachotherandlargersystemsofwhichtheyareapart.Theyrespondtochangebyre‐organisingthemselvesintohigherlevelsoforganisation.Systemsandhumanorganisationsactlikenetworksorcommunitiesandwhilesomephysicallawsstillapply,theyalsoobeyanewsetofrulesthatareonlynowbeingmappedandunderstood.

Figure1TheShiftinPerception

Thisshiftinperspectivefrommachinetoorganic,dynamicsystemisprofoundandisaffectingeveryaspectofhumansociety.Theonlywayleaders,betheyineconomicdevelopmentortourismorboth,canleadeffectivelyistounderstandthefullnatureandimplicationsofthisshift.Newwaysofthinkingareneededthatdrawonpartsofthebrainthattheindustrialworldviewconsideredirrelevant.DanPink’sbook,AWholeNewMind,providesanexcellentandhighlyaccessibleintroductiontotheneedtobalancethedifferingcapacitiesoftheleftandrighthemispheresofthebraininordertomakesenseofarapidlychanging,andincreasinglycomplex,world.

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RelevanceofChangingWorldviewstoTourism&EconomicDevelopmentFollowingtheinventionandrapiddiffusionofmasstransportation(railandair)thatrapidlyincreasedthevolumeoftravellersinthe1950sand1960s,tourismbusinesseslookedtomanufacturingfororganisationalmodelsandbestmanagementpractice.Thevisitor’sexperiencewasperceived,managedandmarketednotasawholebutasaseriesofproductsthatcouldbeassembled–likethepartsofacar–fromwithinaverticallyintegratedchainofsupply.Thescienceofmarketingfocusedonidentifyingcustomersegmentsthatcouldbetargetedandonwhichvariousmessagesandproductscouldbepushedinordertopersuadeconsumerstoconsumeandtherebycapturemarketshare.Thelanguageandmetaphorsweredecidedlymilitary,highlycompetitiveandproductcentric.Theresultswereimpressive–injustundersixtyyears,internationaltourismgrewfromatrickletoafloodwithjustunderabillioninternationaltravellersexploringtheplanetandatleastfivetimesthatnumberstayingwithintheirownborders.SpokespersonsfortheleadingtourismagenciessuchastheWTTCandUNWTOregularlyboastedoftourism’sresilienceandprojectedannual,compoundincreasesintrafficof4‐6%overthenextdecade.Figure2isachartillustratingtheUNWTOprojectionsoftourismgrowthbetween1950and2020thatshowsanexponentialincreaseinthevolumeoftourismtrafficwhichappearstohavenoend.Thepatternreflectsanindustrialmindsetthattendstothinkinstraightlines,byprojectingthefuturefromgrowthratesexperiencedinthepresentorrecentpastandbyviewingthetourismphenomenonassomehowdisconnectedfromthesub‐systemsofenvironment,economy,consumervaluesandbehaviouronwhichitdepends.Thepatternassumesadegreeofconstancyinthefactorsthatinfluencedemandthatsimplydoesnotoccurintherealworld.Itignoresthepotentialforinternalselflimitingfactorsthatmighthalttheupwardtrajectoryofgrowth,betheyenvironmentalconstraints,congestion,ordiminishingratesofreturntosuppliersandordiminishingratesofsatisfactionexperiencedbytourists.Thechartisoftenusedtoconvincepublicandprivateagenciesthattourismhasseeminglyunlimitedgrowthpotentialandthereforejustifiesfurtherinvestmentinbothdevelopmentandmarketing.

Figure2:InternationalTourismArrivals,1950­2020

Bycontrast,Figure3illustrateswhathappenstorealtouristdestinationslocatedatthelocalcommunityorregionallevel.TheresearchunderpinningButler’sTouristAreaLifecycleModel,andthatofcountlesstourismplannerssince,hasshownthatmostdestinationspassthroughasequenceofstages:exploration,involvement(localsrespondtotheneedsofvisitors),development(investmentoccursfromlocalandexternalsourcestoexpandservicesandfacilities),consolidation(amatureperiodduringwhichtherateofvisitorgrowthandinvestment

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slowsdown)andthenstagnation(whenre‐investmentinmaintenancealsodeclinesandthequalityoftheinfrastructureandexperiencedeteriorate).Atthispointonlysomeformof“re‐think”intheformofdifferentattractorsandexperiences,oramammothfacelift/makeovercanrescuethedestinationfromfurtherdecay.Figure3:Butler’sTourismAreaLifeCycleModel

ThechartinFigure3reflectsanecologicalmindset.ThegraphappliestotheriseandfallofallspeciesinanyecosystemandmoreaccuratelyreflectsrealitythanFigure2.Itsuggeststhatthepatterndescribedforlocaltourismcanandshouldbeappliedtoglobaltourismgrowthastherecouldbebothself‐limitingfactorswithintourism’sindustrialmodelaswellasexternalfactors(environmentallimits,economicfactorsandsocietaltrends)thatmightaffectitsperformance.TheNeedforTransformationDespitetheoptimismandcertaintysuggestedbyUNWTO’sprojectionsinFigure1,tourismgrowthhasstalledinresponsetoasevereglobalrecession.Theendof2009projectsinternationaltourismtraffictohavedeclinedby6%iii.Fewexpecttheglobaleconomytoresume“businessasusual”oncethatdownwardtrendbottomsout.ItisperhapsappropriatetoaskwhetherthecurrentdeclinerepresentsthetemporarydownturnassociatedwithabusinesscycleorcouldrepresentthefirstsignsofthestagnationphaseillustratedinFigure3.Eitherway,thelullinfreneticeconomicandvisitorgrowthprovideseverydestinationwiththeopportunitytoassessitsownstrengthsandweaknessesandreflectonthekindsoftourismitwishestopursueinthefuture.Itistimeforsomeformofre‐orientationorshiftinthewaytourismisdevelopedanddeliveredinorderforittoemergefromthisperiodofdifficultyrejuvenatedandrenewed.Thistransformativerequirementisnotuniquetotourism–virtuallyeverysocio‐economicactivityisgoingthroughsomeformofre‐thinkorre‐boot.Borrowingfromthetermusedtodescribetheevolutionoftheweb,themoniker2.0isbeingappliedtosectorsasdiverseasgovernment,healthcare,agricultureandtheterms“transformation”and“re‐boot”arecroppingupeverywhere–evenbeingusedbyrelativelyconservativeaccountingfirms!iv

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Atleastsixkeychangedriversarenecessitatingaprofoundre‐think.

• TheendofNICETimes.• Technology&connectivity• ChangingDemographics,SkillsandValues• InternalFailure–tyrannyofcommoditisation&inequalityofwealthdistribution• Biophysicalrealities• Theneedtode‐materialisegrowth

Tourismgrowthisinextricablylinkedtoeconomicgrowthandwecanbesurethatthewayinwhichthesefactorsemergeandintertwinewilldirectlyimpacttheglobaleconomy.Eachfactorwillsingly,orincombination,alsoshapethenatureoftourismdemand.Neithertimenorspacepermitsadetailedexaminationofthesefactorsandtheirinterdependenciesinthispaper.Instead,wecanmerelyoutlinetheirkeydynamicsasaformofmapthathighlightstheissuesthattourismmarketersandeconomicdevelopersmustbeawareof.Readersoftheelectronicversionwilldiscoverthattheanalysiswillgrowindepthovertime.TheEndofNICETimesMervynBragg,theGovernoroftheBankofEngland,coinedthetermNICEtodescribeaperiodofNon‐inflationaryConstantExpansioninwhichanumberofgrowthfactorspropelledeconomicgrowthforwardduringthe1990sandfirstpartofthesecondMillennium.TheUKbasedForumfortheFutureandCapGeminichartedthesefactors(illustratedbelow)anddevelopedfouralternativescenariosforglobalbusinessinareporttitledActingNowforaPositive2018PreparingforRadicalChangev.Theiranalysisposited8growthfactorswhichhadcontributedtotheNICEtimesbutwhichhavesubsequentlyweakenedandshowlittlesignsofrobustrecovery.

Figure4:TheFactorsThatContributedtoNICETimes

Source:ActingNowforaPositive2018PreparingforRadicalChange,

FutureFoundation&CapGeminiAsfewexpectthesegrowthdriverstodominatethesceneinapostrecessionaryworld,wecanexpectsignificantchangesinthepaceandtypeoftourismdemandoverthenextdecade.Technology&ConnectivityWecanbeconfidentinassuming,however,thatthepaceoftechnologicaladvancementwillcontinuetoaccelerateandthatthenextgenerationwillhaveaccesstocomputingpowerand

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bandwidththatiswildlygreaterthanthatenjoyedtoday.By2020,over2billionpeoplewillbeconnectedtotheinternetandover5billionwillhaveaccesstoamobilephone.Readersarerecommendedtoasuccinctandinformativeoverviewofthefivekeytechnologicalforcesshapingfutureeconomiesandsocieties:processingpower,connectivityasinbandwidth,nanotechnology,biotechnology–seetheFutureoftheLeadingEdgevibyInfoSavy.

Thewebhasindeedchangedeverythingbutnotjustasaglobaldistributionchannelbutasaplatformforcollaborationinwhichtheimpactofconsumerstalkingwitheachotheraboutbrandssignificantlyoutweighsthemessagesthatbrandscanconveyaboutthemselves.Ubiquitousandpervasiveconnectivityandaccesstoalmostperfectinformationhasenabledthecustomertoseizecontrol–thetasknowislessto“push”messagestocustomersinanattempttopersuadethemtobuy,buttosupportcustomersbyenablingthemtopullthequalitycontenttheyneedwhen,whereandhowtheyneedit.

Figure5:EvolutionoftheWeb(DavidArmano)

Inshort,allmarketingisnowsocialinnatureandrequiresanewsetoflistening,interactiveandcollaborativetoolsandskills.Consumersmustnowbeviewedaspartnersnottargetsastheyhavealmostequalpowertoproducecontent(blogs,books,photos,moviesand,thankstowebservicesorwidgets,entirewebsiteswithsophisticatedfunctionality).IfmarketshavebecomeconversationsastheauthorsofTheClueTrainManifestoviiprescientlyforecastin1999,thentheobjectivenowisnottotalkbuttobecomethetopicofother’sconversation.Eachconsumersitsatthecentreofhisorherowndistributionnetworkandthankstointersectingonlinesocialnetworksmaybeabletoinfluencethousandsofpeers.Thenewmetrictowatchis“returnoninfluence”.Marketershavelongunderstoodthebattleforconsumers’time,attentionandincome.Nowthebattlefortheirtrustassumesfargreaterimportance.Thecombinationofconnectivityandcontenthasgeneratedadegreeoftransparencyunparalleledinthehistoryofcommercesuchthatabrand’sequityisincreasinglyafunctionofitsreputation.Soonallproducts,placesandpeoplewishingtodobusinesswillbereviewedandratedandthesereviewsandratingswillappearalongsidethesearchengineresults.DestinationMarketersandEconomicDevelopersmustembracethenewcollaborativeplatformsandunderstandtheimpactsofpervasivesocialconnectivityiftheyaretostayrelevantandiftheyaretosupporttheircommunitiesinfullyparticipatinginagloballynetworkedeconomy.ChangingDemographics,SkillsandValuesProfessionaltourismmarketersandeconomicdevelopersarefullyawareofthepowerofdemographicstoimpactcommunitiesandshapedevelopmentaswellasinfluencetheprofileandbehaviourofvisitors.

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DemographicsTheunderlyingchallengeaffectingallofuspertainstosheernumbers.Despitereducingfertilityratesinmanycountries,theglobalpopulationcontinuestorise–itwillexceed7billionby2011andaddanotherbillioninthenextdecade.In2006,almost500millionpeopleworldwidewere65andolder.By2030,thattotalisprojectedtoincreaseto1billion—1inevery8oftheearth’sinhabitants.Significantly,themostrapidincreasesinthe65‐and‐olderpopulationareoccurringindevelopingcountries,whichwillseeajumpof140percentby2030.Theimpactofthistrendontheeconomiesofsuchcountriesisnotyetclearalthoughwecanexpecttoseeagrowingtaxburdenplacedontheexistingworkforceasitcopeswithcaringforanagingpopulationwhomaynothaveplannedtolivesolong.Noristheimpactonpropensitytotravelcertain.Muchdependsonthevalueofpensionsandsavings.Ifboomersremainhealthyinbodyandfinance,wecanexpectseniortraveltoboom;ontheotherhand,pensionscrisescombinedwithcostlymedicalbillscouldleavelittlecashforvacations.Inadditiontothegrowinggapbetweenyoungandold,wearealsowitnessingawideninggapbetweenrichandpoor.Therealitiesofthestarkcontrastsinpopulationdynamicsbetweenrich,developedanddevelopingnationsisillustratedinthefollowingchartpublishedbythePopulationReferenceBureauinits2009WorldPopulationDataSheetviii.EventhoughCanadaandUgandahaveclosetothesamepopulationtoday,UgandaisexpectedtohavemorethandoubleCanada’spopulationby2050.

Eightypercentoftoday’syouth(all1.2billion)liveinAfricaandAsiaandcanbeexpectedtobehighlymobileastheysearchforeducation,trainingandwork.In1950thereweretwopeopleforeveryrichperson;by2025;thatratiowillhaveincreasedto8:1withthepoorpeoplehavingalmostequalaccesstothesameinformationthroughtheInternetandmobiledevicesastheirwealthierpeers.ThegrowthofpiracyonthehighseasadjacenttoimpoverishedcountriessuchasSomaliacouldspreadintomorekidnappingeventsonland.Failuretobeabletoguaranteetourists’personalsafetycaneffectivelykillinternationaltourismovernight.Inthewesternworld,propensitytotravelandpreferredstyleoftravelwillvarybetweenthreekeydemographicgroups:Boomers,bornafter1946andnowthinkingofeitherfullorpart‐timeretirement;GenerationX,asmallercohortbornbetweenXandYwhowillbeassumingthemajorityofleadershippositionsinbusinessandgovernment;andthegenerationvariouslydescribedasGenY,theNetGenerationandtheEchopopulationbornbetween1977and1997.ThisisthegenerationthatcanbesthelpDestinationMarketingOrganisationsandEconomic

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Developmentagenciesbestunderstandtheimpactandopportunitiesaffordedbytoday’sconnectingtechnologiesas,accordingtoDonTapscott,itrepresentsthefirstgenerationthatgrewup“bathedinbits.ix”Inaworlddependentoneffectiveuseofinformationtechnologiesandcollaborativewaysofworkingthisgenerationwillbeaprizedsourceoftalent,competenceandcreativity.N­Genemployeesexpectthecompaniestheygotoworkfortohavethecollaborativetoolsandprocessesinplacethattheyhavegrownaccustomedtointheirpersonallives.Asanexample,28%ofN­Gnersdislikeemailasacommunicationstechnologybecauseitistooslow.Ourabilitytoforecasttheimpactofclimatechangeontravelbehaviouralsosuffersfrominconsistentandambiguousresearchfindings.In2007,theUKCivilAviationAuthoritystated,“atpresent,passengers’attitudestowardstheenvironmentdonotseemtobehavingasignificanteffectonthedemandforairtravel”xIn2009,anotherstudyonsocialattitudesinBritainfoundthat70percentagreethatairtravelhasaneffectonclimatechange.xiThetakeupofcarbonoffsetsofferedbyairlinesremainslow–hoveringaround3‐5%foravarietyofreasons.It’sinterestingtonotethatwhileAmericans’understandingoftheissueshasstrengthened,only9%arewillingtopaymoreforeco‐friendlyoptions.SkillsShortageDespitetherecession,theglobeisfacingamajorskillsshortageasthepopulationagesandthemismatchbetweencurrentworkforceskillsandfuturerequirementsworsens.Thecompetitionfortalentwillbecomeevenfiercerintheyearsahead.Successfulorganisationsandcommunitieswillfindwaysofhelpingthethreegenerationsworkeffectivelytogetherandharnessingthedifferenttalentsandperspectivesthateachbringstoproblemsolvingandcreativity.Thenatureofworkwillalsochangedramatically–morejobswillbeshared;theproportionofpeopleself‐employedwillrisewithapotentialimpactonuseofleisuretime;sub‐contractingandoutsourcingwillescalate;andindividualswillhavemultiplecareers.ChangingValuesAtthesametime,eachgenerationisexhibitingasteadyshiftinvalues.AccordingtoClaireRatushnyintheMediaPostarticle“MeetingConsumers’EmergingValues,xii”

People are paring downand simplifying their lives. Consumers are increasingly selectiveabout the products they purchase. “Excess is causing revulsion, prompting consumers topurchase fewerproductsandmore inbulk; then torepurposeasmuchas theycan.Eventrendsettersarereorientingtheirlifestylestoeliminateunnecessarywaste.Goodnewsfortheenvironmentandoverflowinglandfills.

Accordingtothe2008GoingGreenxiiistudybyYankelovich,62percentofAmericansagreethat“Peopletodayconsumefarmoreofeverythingthantheyreallyneed,”upfrom49percentin2007reflectinganemergingtrendcalledEnoughism.RichardWatson,futuristandauthorofTrendBlend2009hassuggested;

Organisationswillbecomeincreasinglyvalues­driven.Theywillalsobecomemoreconnectedwiththeircommunities,beitageographicareaorthewidercommunityofemployees,customersandsuppliers.…Peoplewillbespendingmoretimewiththeirimmediatefamilyandfriends.Thisisanopportunitybecausepeoplewillbeinterestedinthingsthatenablethisortapintotheneedtoslowthingsdownalittle.

Thecorporateworldhascertainlymadeahugeshiftinitsperceptionofwhatbusinessisallabout.Justafewyearsago,MiltonFriedman’sviewthatprofitswastheonlylegitimatefocusofbusinessdominatedthecommercialsector.OverthepastdecadeCorporateSocialResponsibilityhasshiftedfromanissueofcompliancetoanopportunitytobuildandenhanceanattractivebrandreputation.TheBarrettValuesCentrexivhasundertakensignificantresearchmappingcorporatevaluesanddeterminedthatcorporatevaluescanbeclassifiedbythesameMaslowhierarchyusedtomap

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consumerbehaviour.–asillustratedbelow.Agrowingnumberofleadingcorporationsarefindingthatitmakesverygoodbusinesssensetomoveupthehierarchyfromsurvivaltoactualisation.

Destinationswillsoonfindthemselvesmeasured,indexedandratedaccordingtotheseriousnesswithwhichtheytaketheirenvironmentalandsocialstewardshipresponsibility.SimonAnholt,oneofthekeyexpertsonplacebrandinghasthistosayonthesubject:

Threeaspectsofreputationhavebecomecritical:perceivedenvironmentalcredentials;perceivedcompetenceandproductivityintechnology;andattractivenessasaplaceoflearningandeconomicandculturalselfimprovement.xv

InternalFailure–theChallengeofCommoditisationOneofthemosttellingsignsthatashiftinperceptionisnowtakingplace,isthereferencetowidespreadandfundamentalmarketfailuresbetheyassociatedwithclimate,foodorthemostrecenteconomicmeltdown.Thereisagrowingawarenessthatwhileindustrialisedcapitalismmayhavebroughtmanybenefitsintermsofwealthcreation,itcontainsinternaldesignflawsthatmaylimititslong‐termsuccess.Oneoftheseself‐limitingfactors,aggravatedsubstantiallybyconsumers’digitalaccesstounparalleledamountsofinformation,hasbeentherelentlessonslaughtofcommoditisation–themechanismwherebygoodsandservicesdropinperceivedvalueovertime.

Tourismisparticularlyvulnerableandsusceptibletothecurseofcommoditisationforanumberofreasons:a)theproductisperishable;b)therearelowbarrierstoentry;c)productshave

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becomehomogenised;d)fierceglobalcompetition;e)relianceondebtfinancingandf)prevalenceofnotoriouslythinprofitmargins.Whileairlinesmaybeabletoadjustcapacitybyparkingplanesinthedesert,therestofthetourismsupplychainisstuckwithfixedoperatingcostsandheavyinvestmentsinhardandsoftoverheads(facilities,buildingsandpeople).Evenduringboomeconomictimes,whenconsumersfelttheirdisposableincomesrising,tourismsuppliersoftencompetedonprice.Duringbustperiods,pricediscountingappearstobethepreferredcopingmechanism.Asrevenuesdecline,operatorshavefewchoices–theymustcutcostsandthiscanonlybedonebyreducingservices,redundancies,bystandardisingtheproductofferingorthroughautomation.Alltheseresponsesresultinadeteriorationincustomerexperience.Revenuescanonlybegrownbymergersandacquisitionsorbyafocusonvolumewhich,inturn,leadstomorecongestion,greaterdissatisfactionandincreasedvulnerabilitytosubstitution(stayingathome,replacingtravelwithvideoconferencesandnetmeetings).Thisnegativeanddownwardspiralharmsdestinations asthetourismcommunityislessabletogeneratetangiblebenefitstothehostcommunity(wagesdropandcheaplabourisimported)andtourismenterprisesarelessabletopayforexternalcostssuchasecosystemservices.Inordertoboosttaxrevenuesandsustainemployment,destinationsmustencouragegrowthinvolume(morevisitorsormoresuppliers).Inshort,duringandafterrecessionaryperiods,destinationsandsuppliersmustfindtheantidotetocommoditisationorfacetheirlong‐termdecline.BiophysicalrealitiesIftheseinternalflawswerenottroublesomeenough,thetourismcommunityisnowbeingforcedtofacesomebiophysicalrealities.Tourismisallaboutthemovementofpeoplethroughspaceandtheirconsumptionofresourcesatspecificplacesandtimes.Therearebiophysicallimitstotheamountofresourcesthatcanbeconsumedbothintotalandduringaspecifiedperiodwithouttherebeinganegativeconsequence.Thisphenomenoniscalled“carryingcapacity”.Whilenotoriouslyhardtodefineatthelocallevel,wearenowexperiencingthechallengeoflivingbeyondourmeansasaspeciesontheplanetcalledearth.Globally,humanityispractisingtheecologicalequivalentofdeficitspending,utilisingresourcesataratefasterthanthatwhichtheplanetcanregenerateinacalendaryear.Inotherwords,wenowrequiretheequivalentof1.4planetstosupportourlifestyles.Putanotherway,inlessthan10months,humanitywilluseecologicalservicesthattheEarthtakes12monthstoregenerate.IfhumanityconsumedatthesamerateasNorthAmericanpopulationsdo,thenwewouldneedanother5planetstosupplytheresourcesnecessarytosustainourwayoflife. xvi TheCarbonFootprint,whichaccountsfortheuseoffossilfuels,isalmosthalfthetotalglobalfootprint,andisitsfastest‐growingcomponent,increasingmorethanelevenfoldfrom1961to2005.Themajorityoftheglobalscientificcommunityisnowconvincedthatclimatepatternsarechangingatafasterratethanmostnaturalsystemscanadjustimpactingtheviabilityofspecies,landscapes,foodproductionandthehabitabilityofvasttractsoflandalongcoastlinesanddeltaswherevastnumbersofhumanslive.Tourismisthoughttohavecontributed5%oftheplanet’scarbonfootprintin2005butshouldtourismgrowattheratesforecastbytheUNWTOandshouldotherindustriesreducetheircarbonfootprintasrequired,tourismwillbecomeoneofthesinglemostsignificantcontributorstocarbongeneration.

TheIcarusFoundationwasfoundedin2007asanattempttoencouragethetourismindustryinCanadatoaddresstheclimatechangeissuestraighton.Moreinformationcanbefoundonthewebsiteandblogdedicatedtotheclimatechangetopic.Apaperoutliningtheissuesassociatedwithclimatechangeandtourismisavailablehere.

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AccordingtoSirDavidBeddington,theUK’sChiefScientist,humanityisfacingabiophysical“perfectstorm”overthenext20yearswithenergydemandandfooddemandbothrising50%whilewateravailabilityreduces30%.Itdoesn’trequiremoredetaileddatatosuggestthatthetourismindustrywillbeoperatinginaverydifferentbiophysicalenvironmentastimepassesandsomeformofadjustmenttobusinessasusualwillbeessential.Whilsttheeffortsofindividualbusinessestobecomesustainablethroughreductionsinwaste,carbonandresourceusemustbeapplauded,theywillbeinvainunlessthebroadertourismcommunitycanaddressitsdependencyonvolumegrowth.

TheNeedtoDe­materialiseGrowthThereallybigissueaffectingallhumanityistheneedtode‐couplegrowthfromtheuseofscarceresourcesandgenerationofwastesinexcesstheearth’sbiophysicalcapacitytoabsorbandprocesswithoutharmfulsideeffects.Untilrecently,thesubjectofgrowthwassobuiltintotheassumptionsof“howthingswork”thatquestioningtheneedforeconomicgrowthwasconsideredtaboo.Ourcurrenteconomicmodelisdependent,tothepointofaddiction,ongrowthfortwofundamentalreasons:

a. outputhastooffsetproductivitygainsinordertokeeppeopleinemployment

andb. outputhastoincreaseinordertopaytheinterestindebtthatcompoundsover

time.

Thehistoryofthewesternworldisallaboutproductionandoncethemarketforessentialgoodsandserviceswassustained,businesshadtoinnovatethroughnoveltyortechnologythatchangedtherulesofthegame.Noveltyhasbeenthemaingrowthdriverintourism–seeButler’sTouristAreaLifecyclechartabove,Figure3.Privilegedtravellers(nevertourists)discoverednewplacesthatsoonerorlaterbecametouristdestinations.Theproblemisthatthenumberofundiscoveredplacesisrunningout.Newwaysofcreatingnovelty,addingvalueandgeneratingyieldhavetobecreated.

Fortunately,thegrowthdiscussionisnolongertabooandeconomistswhoquestionitsnetbenefitandvaluearenolongerrelegatedtothewilderness.Anincreasingnumberofpubliclyandprivatelyfundedresearchagenciesandthinktanksisnowexamininghowwemightsustainwell‐beingandqualityoflifewithouttheneedtolivebeyondourmeans.OnereallyimportantcontributiontothisimportantdiscussionisthethoughtpiecepublishedbytheUK‐basedInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentGrowthtitledProsperityWithoutGrowthxviiPresentlygrowthismeasuredbyincreasesinGDPeventhoughthereisgrowingevidencethatGDP–ameasureoftotaloutput–canrisewithouttheirbeinganycorrespondingincreaseinwell‐being.

Ifthetourismcommunitywishesa)tobetakenseriously;andb)tobeallowedtocontinuetouseincreasinglypreciousnaturalresources(bothstuffandplaces),ittoomustfocusitsattentiononhowtosustainitsoperations,generatebenefitstohostcommunities;andprovidedelighttocustomerswithoutincreasingitsecologicalfootprint.Anyotherconversationisthemedievalequivalenttodebatinghowmanyangelsdanceonapinhead.

Nothingshortoftransformationisneeded–acompletemetamorphosisinthewaytravelandtourismisconductedandsold.Thebalanceofthispaperhighlightswhattheauthorbelievesaresomefruitfulplacestostartthattransformationprocessandinvitesallreaderstojoininthiscommonendeavour…..

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TheLookandFeelofTransformationThefollowingconceptsarepreliminarythoughtsonthewaytourismandcommunityeconomicdevelopmentmightdevelopinresponsetotheshiftinperceptionandthechangeforcesdescribedabout.Theyobviouslyconstitutea“workinprogress”andaresharedinordertoinvitediscussionandrefinementfrompractitionersinthefield.PlacesareBackWhiletheneedfortransformationisuniversal,Icontendthattheycanonlybefacedfromthecommunitylevelup.Onlywhenweshiftourperceptionfromtourismasanindustry(consumingresources,makingandsellingproducts)totourismasaphenomenonorsystembasedoncommunitiesofpeople,willeffectivesolutionsemerge.Placesarere‐emergingastheorganisingprinciple;the“queenbees”aroundwhichactivitycoalescesandcreatesmeaningandvalueforguest,host,supplierandconsumer.Priortoindustrialisationandtheconnectivitythathasbeenassociatedwithit(theprintingpress,thetelegraph,telephone,internet),mostpeoplestayedput,withthevastmajoritytravellingatmostjustafewmilesfromtheirhomes.Eachplacedevelopeditsowndistinctive“senseofplace”basedonauniquecombinationofgeographyandhistory.Totravelfarreallydidmeantoencountertheunknown.Theindustrialprocess,withitsfocusonvolume,necessitatedstandardisedproductionanddistributionandnowmanytownsofferthesamemixofcommercialbuildingsandservices.

Localisback.Paradoxically,globalisationhasmadeuniqueplacesmoreimportantthanever.Neighbourhoods,cities,regions,evencountriesarealltryingtodefineandcommunicateaone­of­a­kindauthenticitythatwilllurepeople,investmentandvisitorstotheirlocale.xviii

Theobjectiveofthecommunityisviability,vitality,stability,healthandprosperity,asexpressedinthecapacityforitspeopletoflourish.Thequestionnowfocusesonhowcommunitiesdifferentiatethemselvesandsustaintheirinhabitantsinaglobalisednetworkthatisincreasinglyvaluingwellness,creativity,ideas,thoughtandmentalprocessingovertheproductionandconsumptionofstuff.Toanswerthatquestionrequiresexaminationofvalues,viability,diversity,connectivityandscale.Italsorequiresunderstandinghowcomplexadaptivesystemsbehaveandlookingtonewsourcesofconceptualunderstandingbasedonnetworksandcomplexity.PeopleareBackTheindustrialmodelfocusesonthings,materialityandstuff.Anecologicalmindsetfocusesonpeople,agentsandrelationships.Theindustrialmindsetlabelsreality,breaksitintocomponentspartsthatareassignedtoboxesorcategories.Theecologicalmindworkswithwholesandseesindividualsactingoutmultiplerolesthatthriveondynamic,everchangingsetsofrelationship.DestinationMarketingOrganisations(DMOs)currentlyexisttofocusontheneedsofvisitorsandthosetourism‐relatedsupplierswhocatertovisitorsfromoutsidethecommunity.Buttherearesomanyotherkindsofpeoplethatwithoutdirectionattractoutsiderstothecommunity:residents,workers,students,exportbusinessowner/managers,investors,immigrants(wouldbeandactual),peopleofinfluence(media,celebrities);filmproducersseekingtheperfectlocation;andeventcreators.Eachofthesetypesofindividualhasastakeinthedestination.Theirrolesareofteninterchangeable–avisitorbecomesanimmigrantoraninvestor;abusinesstravellerreturnstobuypropertyandrentouttofriendsEachplaysanimportantroleinbuildingandshapingtheplacebrandandeachhasitsownnetworkofconnectionsthatcanbetappedasafuturesourceofvisitation.TherearenolongerserioustechnologicalimpedimentsforindividualstoperformthesameinvitationfunctionsasweredelegatedtoDMOs.Theycanproducecomplexwebsites,forexample,usingfreesoftware

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thatprovidesarangeofcontentandfunctionality.ThetaskoftheDMOinthefuturewillincreasinglybetostimulateandharnessthiscreativeenergyofthecommunitytosupporttheworkofinvitingotherstovisitaplace.TheNeedforIntegrationTheecologicalmindsetseesallthingsasinter‐connectedandinter‐dependenteventhoughthenatureandimpactofthoseconnectionsmaybehardtoisolate,describeandmeasure.Sometimes,smallconnectionscanhavebigconsequences.Giventhisinter‐connectedrealityandthefactthatplacesaresettingsforpeopleandthatpeopleplaymultiple,interchangeableroles;doesitmakesensetoputtheactivitiesassociatedwithmakingaplaceattractiveintoseparateboxes,ie,toseparatetourismfromeconomicdevelopment?PlacebrandingcannotbeundertakenbyDMOsinisolationfromalltheotherpeoplewithastakeinthecommunity’sfutureandmostcertainlycannotbeoutsourcedtoanexternalagency.

Placemakingisasharedactivity,especiallyinwhathasbeendescribedasTheCreativeEconomy.

Urbanplannersandstrategistsagreethatvibrant,authenticplacesbubblingwithlivelyculturalandentertainmentoptionsaremagnetsthatattractandretaincreativepeople.Thiscreativeworkforceinturngenerateswealthinanexpandingknowledgeeconomy.Theoldassumptionineconomicdevelopmentwasthatpeoplefollowbusinessandinvestment.Weknowthatthereverseistrue.Ifwebuildcommunitieswherepeoplewanttoliveandwork,businessandinvestmentfollowpeople,notviceversa.xix

Tourismisamajorcontributortotheviabilityofacommunity.Tourismconnectstheplacewiththepeoplewhomightbeinvestors,employees,entrepreneurs,ideagenerators,managers,leadersandinfluencerswhomakethecommunitywork;makeitattractivetoothers;andmakeitpossibletovisitandenjoy.

Tourismisthemeansandnottheendtocommunitydevelopmentandsustainedprosperity.BrandMagic–aninclusiveprocessInaglobalised,networkedandutterlyconnectedworldcomprisingthousandsofplaces,itisvitalthateachcanstandoutandhavethecapacitytoattractthepeople,investment,ideasandcapitalitneedstosustainitself.(Eachplacebeinganopensystemnestedinaglobalnetworkofsystems).Capturingdistinctivenessistheessenceofanybrand.Butbrandsarefarmorecomplexthanimpliedbytaglines,imagesorlogos.Placebrandscannotbeowned,letalonecontrolledbyanyagency.Placebrandsconstitutethesumtotalofinteractionsandencountersbetweenguestandhost.

Weliveinaworldwherethelittlethingsdoreallymatter.Eachencounternomatterhowbriefisamicrointeractionwhichmakesadepositorawithdrawalfromourrationalandemotionalsubconscious.Thesumoftheseinteractionsandencountersaddsuptohowwefeelaboutaparticularproduct,brandorservice.Littlethings.Feelings.Theyinfluenceoureverydaybehavioursmorethanwerealise.xx

Placebrandsrepresenttheinteractionoftwosetsofdesire:1)whattheresidentcommunityintendstheplacetobe,whatitvaluesandwhatitstandsfor;and2)whatthevisitorishoping/expectingtoexperiencethere.Thebrandisthesumtotalofthemicrointeractionsthatoccurbetweenvisitorsandresidentsandvisitorswithvisitorsandtheirpeers,ie,experientialrealityisexpressedasthebuzzofconversationtakingplaceaboutit.

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Figure6:BrandsasInteractionsBetweenResidentsandVisitors

Itisnotenoughfortheplacesimplytostandout.Placesarenowexpectedtooffer“authentic”andmeaningfulexperiencesbasedonauniqueidentitythatreflectstheuniqueattributesofthehistoryandgeographyoftheplace,thepastandpresentaspirationsofitspeople,theircultureandpastachievements.Culturalmappingisnowemergingasakeytooltohelpcommunitiesdeterminewhatmakesthemdifferentandthisisextremelyimportantinthefightagainstcommoditisationasitcreatesa“scarcityofplace”thatpreventsonecommunitysubstitutingforanother.Whilethebodyofliteratureonplacebrandingisincreasingrapidly,Iwouldliketosuggestthreeadditionalaspectsofthistopicthatjustifyfurtherattention:a. Attraction

MostmarketersstillfollowthefivePsofproduct,positioning,price,placeandpromotion–inotherwords,pushaproductoritsbrandtoanaudiencewiththeintentofpersuadingacustomertopurchase.Giventheplethoraofchannels,thesurfeitofmessagesandcustomers’limitedtime,attention,incomeandtrust,anewstrategyisevolving–thatofattractingorpullingthevisitortowardsaplace.Thedistinctionisnotasubtleone.Attractingrequiresclarity,energy,transparency,commitment,authenticityandalignmentfromallaspectsofacommunity.Itmeansbeingwhatandwhoyouwanttoattract.Asmarketingshiftsfromapushtoapullactivitynewskillsandwaysofmeasuringsuccesswillbedeveloped.

b. AlignmentAttractionoccurswhenmoleculesareinalignment.Alaserbeamcanattractattentionbecauseitslightbeams“marchinstep”–theyaresaidtobecohesiveorcoherentand,thereby,becomevisibleovergreatdistances.Communitiesalsoneedtohavetheirmembersactcoherently–ie,toaligntheirperceptionofthemselvesandtheirintent.Theyneedtoknowwhotheyareandthekindofpeopletheywishtoattract.Theprocessofreachingcommunityalignmentisstillpoorlydeveloped.TherehasbeenatendencyforbothDMOsandEconomicDeveloperstoretaintheservicesofprofessionalstohelpframethebrandbutwithoutacoreofsupportandidentificationfromwithinthecommunity,thebrandcanringhollow.

c. ValuesWhiletheprocessknownasculturemappinghelpsacommunitymapitsresourcesandidentity;there’sstillapieceofthepuzzlemissingandthatrevolvesaroundcommunityandvisitorvalues.AccordingtoVictorFrankl,it’sourvaluesthatgiveourlivesmeaningandrenderoneexperiencesignificantoveranother.Whatdoweconsiderimportant?Whattypesofbehaviouraretobeencouragedordiscouraged?Ifthevaluesofthevisitorclashwiththoseofthehostcommunitywecanexpectahighdegreeofdiscontentanddissatisfaction.Similarly,ifthereisinternaldisagreementaboutcorevalues,feworganisationscanachievesuccess.

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Forexample,asIvaluepeaceandquiet,beinginornearnature,natural,homemadeobjectsetc.,IamattractedneithertoLasVegasnortoacruiseexperience.FortunatelyLasVegas“knowsitself”andIamveryclearaboutitsvaluessoIcanavoidmakingthewrongvacationchoice.Thankstotheconnectivityandcommunication’scapacityoftheinternet(asacollaborativeplatform)places,productsandpeoplearenow“naked”.Reputationissustainedthroughauthenticity.Valuesmapping(asopposedtovaluemapping)isarelativelynewscienceandhasonlybeenrarelyappliedtotourism.TheCanadianTourismCommission’sextensiveinvestmentinidentifyingandmeasuringdifferentExplorertypesandtheirdevelopmentoftheExplorerQuotienthasmadeanoutstandingcontributiontounderstandingwhattravellersvalue.xxiAscorporatecultureisknowntobeareflectionofsharedvalues,manycompanieshaveundertakenvaluesmappingexercisesandthesetechniquesare,justnow,beingappliedtoplaces.OneofthemostpowerfulmethodologiesisthatundertakenbytheBarrettValuesCentrethatoverthelasttenyears,hasconductednationalvaluesstudiesinArgentina,Bhutan,Denmark,Latvia,Iceland,and,mostrecently,USA.Latviaisusingtheresultsfromtheirnationalsurveyasthefoundationfortheirsustainabledevelopmentstrategy,Latvia2030,whichwaspresentedtotheEUinSeptember2008.WeeksbeforethecollapseoftheIcelandiceconomy,theIcelandicNationalSurveyrevealedcriticallevelsofdysfunctionintheircurrentculturewithpotentialbankruptcyonthehorizon.xxii

ExcellinginTheExperienceandTransformativeEconomyThereareonlythreeantidotestocommoditisation:

• tostageexperiencesuniquetoaplaceandtime;• toengageandenablecustomerstopersonalisetheirownexperiencesinmeaningful

andeffectiveways;and• toenablethecustomertohaveatransformativeexperience–ie,experienceaninner

changeofperspective,beingorvalue.

WhileJoePineandJimGilmore,authorsofTheExperienceEconomyxxiiiidentifiedallthreestepsover10yearsago,veryfewdestinationshaveinvestedtimeandenergyinapplyingtheseantidotes.TheScandinaviansareanexception.InLapland,theyhavecreatedLEO–aCentreofExpertisefortheTourismIndustryandrunaseriesofprogrammesthatenablesmall,mediumsizedoperatorsofattractions,eventsandactivityproviderstore‐thinktheircorebusinessfromtheprovisionofproducts(ahighlyindustrialisedconcept)tothestagingofexperiencesthatthecustomerperceivesasdeliveringadditionalvalue.LEOxxivhasdevelopedtheExperiencePyramid,basedonPineandGilmore,whichincorporatessixkeyelementsofameaningfulexperience(individuality,authenticity,story,multisensoryperception,contrastandinteraction–formore,readhere).Whileanacademicrigourhasbeenappliedtothedevelopmentoftheprogramme,itisalsoconsideredhighlypracticalandvaluablebythoseSMEswhoenjoysignificantimprovementstotheirmarginsasaresultofthisshiftinthinkingandpractice.

Thepersonalisationofexperiencescanonlyoccurwhenindividualconsumerscanaccess,assembleandmanipulatevariouselementsoftheirdesiredvacationexperiencepriortoandduringtheirtripandthencreatesuitablememoriestomaketheexperiencelastaftertheyhavegonehome.Sincetwo‐thirdsofthevisitorexperience(thefantasyandthememory)isavirtualone,revolutionsinthedigitisationofcontentcouldbeuseful.Buta

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preoccupationwithtransactionshasresultedinanobsessionwithbookingsbyDMOsandtouroperatorsandonlinetravelagencieshavefocusedondynamicpackagesandproductcontrol.Itremainsverydifficultforcustomerstobeabletoaccessalltheinformationtheycouldusetoplantheirfantasytrip,enrichitsexperienceandcreateentertainingmemoriesthatwon’tboretheirfamilyandfriends.Thisfrontierofcustomer‐orientedusabilityhasyettobefullyexploredbythetravelindustry.ThebusinessliteratureonWeb2.0seemsmorefocusedonnewchannelsandeyeballs(Facebookfans,Twitterfollowers)ratherthancustomerserviceandintegration.VenturecapitalistsaregamblersatheartbettingonbusinessmodelsthatmightrisetodominationlikeFacebookandGoogle.Whilewewaitforwinnerstoemerge,thetravellerisfindingtheironlineexperienceincreasinglyfrustrating.

ActingResponsiblySadlythetermsustainabilityhaslostmuchofitsmeaningduetooveruseandmisuse.Thethreeso‐calledpillarsofsustainabilityarenotequalanymore.Theeconomyisawholly–ownedsubsidiaryoftheenvironment.Ifweloseourlifesupportsystem(breathableair,cleanwaterandsufficientwholesomefoodtosustainhealth)wewon’thaveeitherasocietyoraneconomy.Theopportunitytobalancesociety,economyandenvironmentwassquanderedafewdecadesago.It’snowuptoeverytourismdestinationregardlessofscope(i.e.national,regionalorlocal)tominimisethefootprintleftbytheactivitycalledtourismandtogoonestepfurther–todemonstrateleadershipbyrenewingtheenvironmentsothathealthyeconomiesandsocietiesmightbesustainedintotothefuture.Responsibletourismdoesnotmeansayingnototravelbutitdoesmeansayingyestoactivitythatleavesminimaltrace.Itmeansreducingthecarbonandecologicalfootprintofgroundactivities(accommodation,groundtransport,activitiesetc)tozeroandswitchingmoretransportfromairtoground,wherepossible.Responsibletraveldoesn’tnecessarilymeansayingnotogrowthbutitdoesmeanagenuineswitchfromafocusonvolumeandgrossbenefittoapreoccupationwithvalueandnetbenefitgrowth.

Itmeansstoppingdiscountingandsellingthedestinationshort.Itmeansinvokingthescarcityofplaceandthedevelopmentofhighlyvalueadded,transformativeexperiencestomaximisethevaluefromtheexperience.Itmeansensuringthatallexistingsuppliersareoperatingatoptimumcapacityandarecateringtoadiversesetofcustomerswhosepropensitytoreferothersandreturnalsoexceedsindustryaverages.Itmeansavoidingfurtherexpansionoffacilitiesandservicesuntilitcanbedemonstratedthatthehostcommunitywillnotbenegativelyimpacted(ie,thenetbenefitsfromanincreaseinvisitation,whenfullyassessed,wouldexceedcosts.)Inshortitmeansleavingindustrialtourismbehindanddevelopingacreative,lowimpactplaceandcommunity‐basedalternative.Ormoretothepoint,itmeansthatdestinationsandthebusinessesandresidentslocatedtheremustnowconvincevisitorsthattheyCARE(ie,theyareCommunitiesthatareActivelyRenewingtheirEnvironment).DestiCorpUKLtd.hasdevelopedaninnovativeprogrammedesignedtohelpcommunitiesshowthattheycare.xxvTheFutureisCreativeandSURREAL!SincePineandGilmorewroteTheExperienceEconomy,anumberofauthors,includingJohnHowkinsinTheCreativeEconomy:HowPeopleMakeMoneyfromIdeasandDanPink,inhisAWholeNewMind,hasidentifiedthatwealthinthewesternworldwouldincreasinglycomefromapplyinghigherlevelsofcreativitytotheprovisionofservicesandexperiences.Thingsthatarebeautifullydesignedwillbemorevaluedthanthingsthatsimplyperformafunction.Servicesthatcanbewrappedinmeaningfulexperienceswillfetchahigherprice,etc.WhilstthemajorityofreportsontheCreativeEconomyfocusesontheroleofcultureandthearts,software,media,contentanddesign,manyauthorsarerecognisingthatcreativitycanbeappliedtovirtuallyallhumanendeavour.AnimportantworkingpaperfromtheMartinProsperityInstitutetitledFromKrafttoCraft:InnovationandCreativityinOntario’sFood

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Economy,pointstothepossibilitiesfortourism.Theauthordistinguishestheolderindustrial“Kraft”foodeconomyfromanew“Craft”economy.

Economicpowerwithintheindustrialfoodeconomyishighlyconcentrated;foodishighlyprocessedandincrementalinnovationisinvestedinpackagingandmarketing;firmsarelocatedclosetotraditionalproductioninputs.Bycontrast,inthenew“Craft”economy,economicpowerisdiffusedanddecentralisedfromownersorcontrollersofthemeansofproductiontoindividual,highlycreativeknowledge­workersandextra­firminstitutions.Ideallythecontrolofland,resourcesandcapitalaredispersedandqualityisameasureoftaste,terroir(theattributionofaproduct’squalityandreputationtoitsgeographicalorigin)andtalentofentrepreneurs.Thetraditionalproductiondimensionisimportant,butplacebecomescentraltoqualityfoodmaking,marketingandconsuming.xxvi

Tourismformsacriticalcontributortotheemergingcreativeeconomies,especiallythoseassociatedwithplaces.Tourism‐relatedactivitiestransportandhousevisitorswhomayinturnchosetolive,invest,andworkintheregiontheyvisited.Thisexternalmarketofnon‐residentsplaysacriticalroleinmaintainingtheviabilityandenablingthediversityofvariousamenitiesandservicesenjoyedbytheresidentpopulation.Inthesamewaythatacraftfoodeconomyisemergingtostandasacounterpointtoanindustrialfoodproductionsystem,sodoestourismneedtoencourageaformofcrafttourismwhichforthetimebeingwehavedescribedasananagramspellingSURREALinwhich:

S=slow(visitorsareencouragedtostaylonger,savourmore)U=uniquelyexpressiveoftheplace(minimisingthepotentialforsubstitutionandtakingadvantageofthescarcityofplace)R=responsibleminimisingtheenvironmentalfootprintandmaximisingnetbenefitstohostcommunity,employeesandinvestorsR=regenerative–actuallyrenewingboththehostcommunity,itspeople,itsenvironmentwhilerejuvenatingandrefreshingthevisitor;E=experiential–replacingproductswithvaluewrappedexperiencesbasedonmutualrespectandreciprocitybetweenguestandhostA=artisans–usingproductsandmaterialsthatarecreatedbyartisansandartistsandconveyalevelofmeaningnotpresentinfactorygeneratedthingsL=local–makingmaximumuseofmaterialsandservicesthatcanbesuppliedlocally.

Thereisarealneedandanopportunityfortourismmarketersandeconomicdeveloperstoworktogethertodevelopandsustainahighlyprofitableformofcrafttourismthatdrawssustenancefromalocalcreativeeconomyandinreturnprovidessustenancetoitshost.

JoiningUptheDots–EmpoweringandEnablingtheConnectors.Tourismisultimatelyallaboutconnectingpeopletoeachotherandpeoplewithplaces.Itmovesphysicalbodiesthroughspaceforthatpurpose.Ithasmuchincommonwithtelecommunications–theprocessofmovingdigitisedcontent(bitsofinformation)betweenpeopleandplaces.Sadlyandironicallythesetwogiants;thesetwohugeeconomicdrivershavenotyetjoinedforcesdespitetheircommonfocusandtheirinterdependence.Itwillbeinterestingtoseewhatcanhappenwhenthey“getintobedwithoneanother”.Destination,place‐based,crafttourismwouldbenefitenormouslyfromtheknowledgeandskillsresidentintheinformationtechnologyandtelecommunicationssector.Tourismhasbeenamajorfactorintheweb’sriseanddominationastravelhasbeenonethemostfrequentandextensiveusersoftheweb.AsignificantchunkofthebusinessenjoyedbysuchfirmsasGoogle,Nokia,AppleandCiscoisgeneratedbythetravelindustry.Thusfar,theinteractionshaveoccurredmosteffectivelywhenbetweenindustrialisedcorporatesoneithersideofthetravel‐communicationsdivide.

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Iventuretosuggestthatover95%ofthebusinessesengagedintourismandtheoneswiththegreatestpotentialtoservetomorrow’scustomerandgeneratehighestnetbenefits,isstillunderutilisingtheavailabletechnologyeitherduetolackofbroadbandconnectivity,inferiorhardwareoradearthofskillsandawareness.Thispaperopenedwiththeobservationthatifyouwanttochangetourismyouhavetochangeyourperceptionofhowitworks.Byfollowingthemachine‐basedindustrialmodel,destinationmarketersandmanagers(ieeconomicdevelopers)havemissedakeyopportunity,ie,touseourknowledgeofnetworks,computerisationandinformationprocessingtocreateapowerful,highlyflexible,looselycoupled,distributedelectronicinfrastructure(combiningwired,wireless,hardware,applicationsandcontent)thatwouldenableadestinationtobecometrulysmart.Thetechnologynowexiststosupportanactivitycalledtourismthewayitisinreality–ie,asacomplexadaptivesystem–notaswemightfalselyperceiveittobe–ie,asahighlyintegratedsupplychain.Destinationsmostcloselyapproximatethe“businessweb”soablydescribedbyITguruDonTapscottinhisbooksParadigmShiftandWikinomics.DestiCorphasoftendescribedthemas“DestinationWebs”arguingthat,inthesamewaythatabrainissmart,thankstoitsconnectionsbetweencellsandnotthenumberofcells,sodestinationscouldbecomesmartiftheirsmallenterpriseswerewiredtogetherandsomeforethoughtwasinvestedintothenatureofcontent,andthepurposeandbenefitsofitsexchange.Becausefewdestinationshaveinvestedinthatkindofthought,wehaveasystemthatisasmessyandashaphazardastherealityitcouldsupport–literallymillionsofdiscreteandindependentwebsites;andterabytesofcontent(text,data,images,videosandnowreviewsandratings)thatcan’tbemixedandmatched.Atthesametimewehaveindividualsresponsibleformarketingthathavetowaityearstofindouthowtheirsectorisperforming;wehaveinvestorshavingtolookinarearviewmirrorinordertomakefutureinvestmentdecisionsandmanybusinesseseitherleavingbusinessonthetableorunabletosecureemergingopportunities.NeverhastheneedbeensourgentforacomingtogetheroftourismandITinaconstructiveway.Adestinationwebwouldsignificantlyenhanceintelligencegatheringandpermitadegreeofadaptabilityandagilityessentialinthisworldofincreasingchangeanduncertainty.Itmightalsoenableexistingbusinessestoimprovetheireconomicsustainabilityandprofitabilitywithoutneedingtomultiply.Itwouldbesurrealbutitwouldbeworthit!

ConclusionThispaperisdedicatedtotomorrow’sleaders.Overthenext5‐10yearstheleadershipoftheglobaltourismcommunitywillchangedramaticallyasitsboomerleadersfinallyhandoverpowerandresponsibilitytoanewgeneration.Itisnotyetclearhowthenextcohortofleaderswillperceivethetourismcommunityanditsplaceinthatoftheglobalsociety.Willtheyseetheworldthroughtheecologicallensesdescribedinthispaperorwilltheyneedtounlearntheparadigmthathasdominatedmasstourism?PeterDruckeronceobserved:

"Aparadigmshiftmaytake25years­­thetimeittakesforthe'unwillingtounlearn'proponentsoftheoldparadigmtoretire."

Unfortunately,wedon’thave25years,soeveryeffortmustbemadetoacceleratethatlearningprocess.Asinspiration,letmequotethefamous,currentphilosopher,ErikHoffer:

“Intimesofradicalchange,thelearnersinherittheearth,whilethelearnedfindthemselvesperfectlyequippedforaworldthatnolongerexists.”

Readersareinvitedtojoininthislearningadventureforthestakesareindeedhigh.

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ENDNOTESiLeadershipandtheNewScience,WheatleyMargaret.J.BerrettKohler,1999iiAdaptiveEnterprise,StephanHaeckel,HarvardBusinessSchoolPress,1999iiiUNWTOforecastsivChangeYourWorldOrYourWorldWillChangeYou,Deloitte,2009‐http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_CA/ca/industries/government/article/719ef16bc31fb110VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htmvActingNowforaPositive2018PreparingforRadicalChange,ForumfortheFutureandCapGeminiviFutureoftheLeadingEdge,byInfoSavy–seewww.committedsardine.comviiTheCluetrainManifesto,Locke,Levine,Searls,Weinberge,2000viiiwww.prb.orgixDonTapscottandKeithGoodwin,SuccessintheSecondWaveoftheInternetforCisco,March2008xRecentTrendsinGrowthofAirPasssengerDemand,CivilAviationAuthority,January2008.xiBritishSocialAttitudesSurvey,NationalCentreforSocialResearch,28January2009.xiiMeetingConsumer’sEmergingValues,ClaireRatushnyhttp://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=112295xiiiGoingGreenYankelovich:http://www.yankelovich.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=category&sectionid=13&id=75&Itemid=257xivTheBarrettValuesCentrehttp://www.valuescentre.com/xvSimonAnholt’sIntroductioninTheHandbookonTourismDestinationBranding,WorldTourismOrganizationandtheEuropeanTravelCommission,2009xvihttp://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/earth_overshoot_day/xviiProsperityWithoutGrowth–TimJacksonforSustainableDevelopmentCommission,2009xviiiCulture,Authenticity,Place:ConnectingCulturalMappingandPlaceBranding,GregBaeckerandJeanetteHanna,inMunicipalWorld,February2009xixibidxxDavidArmanohttp://www.slideshare.net/darmano/microinteractions‐marketing‐20‐parisxxihttp://eqgb.canada.travel/xxiiTheBarrettValuesCentre:http://www.valuescentre.com/xxiiiTheExperienceEconomy;JoePineandJimGilmore,1999xxivLEO:Englishwebsite‐http://www.leofinland.fi/LEO/In_English.iw3xxvPlacesThatCare–conceptdevelopedbyDestiCorp(availableonrequest)xxviFromKrafttoCraft:innovationandcreativityinOntario’sFoodEconomy,BetsyDonald,MartinProsperityInstitute,February2009