Beyond resource & Beyond resource & energy intensive energy intensive

growth?growth?

Prof. Mark SwillingProf. Mark Swilling

Sustainability Institute, School of Public LeadershipSustainability Institute, School of Public Leadership

Stellenbosch UniversityStellenbosch University

Africa’s growthAfrica’s growth

• New optimismNew optimism• Africa’s GDP by 2008 - $1.6t, equal Africa’s GDP by 2008 - $1.6t, equal

to Brazil & Russia – increased by to Brazil & Russia – increased by 4.9%/a since 2000, will continue4.9%/a since 2000, will continue

• Urbanisation, rising education, Urbanisation, rising education, expanding middle classexpanding middle class

• Growing diversification – resources Growing diversification – resources down to 24%down to 24%

(Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2010:4)

(Source: WWF 2008)

18-19 March 2009 5

massive investments in energy, mobility and communications at start of every cycle

Africa’s core challengeAfrica’s core challengeGiven that 80% of exports are primary Given that 80% of exports are primary

resources, future development depends on resources, future development depends on re-investment of resource rents in: re-investment of resource rents in:

• human capital development human capital development • infrastructureinfrastructure• sustainability-oriented technological sustainability-oriented technological

innovationinnovation• restoration of renewable resources - water, restoration of renewable resources - water,

soils, biomass (incl biodiversity)soils, biomass (incl biodiversity)

....within the context of a global ‘polycrisis’....within the context of a global ‘polycrisis’

Global Material FlowsGlobal Material Flows

Fischer-Kowalski | UNEP Nov. 08 | 24

Three forced future scenarios for 2050

0

40

80

120

160

Baseline 2000 Freeze &catching up

Factor 2 &catching up

Freeze globalDMC

Construction minerals

Ores and industrialminerals

Fossil fuels

Biomass

Global metabolic scales in billion tonnes Global metabolic rates in t/cap

0

4

8

12

16

Baseline 2000 Freeze & catchingup

Factor 2 &catching up

Freeze globalDMC

Resource use

Human well-being

Economic activity (GDP)

Environmental impact

Resource decoupling

Impact decoupling

Resource and Impact Decoupling

FootprintingFootprintingMaterials: 6t/c

CO2: 2.2 t/cap

Materials: 8t/c

CO2: 4.5 t/cap

Resource use per $1000Resource use per $1000

(Behrens 2007)

Resource prices and Resource prices and Africa?Africa?

China and EU effort to keep resource prices down (EU communiqué 2008) has 2 consequences: reduces incentives for resource efficiency, reduced income for some African countries.

Opposite may be true? higher resource prices = higher incomes for Africa, incentives for resource efficiency. Governance?

Pan-African Pan-African Infrastructure Infrastructure

Development Fund Development Fund (PAIDF)(PAIDF)• AU Heads of State Summit July 2007AU Heads of State Summit July 2007

• Additional annual capital investment: Additional annual capital investment: $22b$22b

• Additional annual O&M spend: $17Additional annual O&M spend: $17• Focus: energy, telecomms, transport, Focus: energy, telecomms, transport,

water & sanitationwater & sanitation• But what kind of infrastructures will But what kind of infrastructures will

be designed and built?be designed and built?

Resource constraints to Resource constraints to growth: SA casegrowth: SA case

• WaterWater• Coal use for energy estimated to grow by Coal use for energy estimated to grow by

60% by 2020, yet estimates of peak 60% by 2020, yet estimates of peak production are 2007 (Patzek & Croft production are 2007 (Patzek & Croft 2010), 2012 (Mohr & Evans 2009), 2020 2010), 2012 (Mohr & Evans 2009), 2020 (Hartnady 2010)(Hartnady 2010)

• Govt estimate of reserves: from 50 bt – 28 Govt estimate of reserves: from 50 bt – 28 bt (2003); possibly only 10bt (Hartnady)bt (2003); possibly only 10bt (Hartnady)

• Soils: 14 Mha arable, 5Mha degradedSoils: 14 Mha arable, 5Mha degraded

Key challengesKey challenges

• Energy and carbonEnergy and carbon• Oil peak/’end of cheap oil’Oil peak/’end of cheap oil’• WasteWaste• FoodFood• biodiversitybiodiversity

Already happening...Already happening...

Green Economy

Summit

Our ChoiceOur Choice• Continue with resource & energy intensive Continue with resource & energy intensive

growth paths, only change if funded by growth paths, only change if funded by developed world, hit thresholds, fall behind developed world, hit thresholds, fall behind technologically (under-invest in cities)technologically (under-invest in cities)

• Re-define development, see constraints as Re-define development, see constraints as opportunities for decoupling, see these opportunities for decoupling, see these opportunities as drivers of innovation, accept opportunities as drivers of innovation, accept scale of ‘new build’ as a strategic opportunity scale of ‘new build’ as a strategic opportunity for new investments in sustainable socio-for new investments in sustainable socio-technical systems (balanced rural-urban technical systems (balanced rural-urban investments)investments)