beyond tablets next five computing form factors

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Deceber 12, 2011

Bend Tbets: The Net FeCptng Fr Fctrs T Wtchb Srh Rtn Epps

r Cnser Prdct Strteg Pressns

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© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Forrester, Forrester Wave, RoleView, Technographics, TechRankings, and Total Economic Impact are trademarks o Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property o their respective owners. Reproduction or sharing o thiscontent in any orm without prior written permission is strictly prohibited. To purchase reprints o this document, please email [email protected]. For additional reproduction and usage inormation, see Forrester’s Citation Policy located at www.orrester.com. Inormation is

based on best available resources. Opinions refect judgment at the time and are subject to change.

Fr Cnser Prdct Strteg Pressns

ExECuTivE SummaRy

ablets have been the “it” product o 2010 and 2011. But they’re not the nal orm actor. It’s time

or product strategists to anticipate what’s coming next. We’ve identied ve orm actors as likely

candidates: wearables, embedded devices, suraces, exible displays, and mini-projectors. While some o

these devices will broaden their appeal to consumers in 2012, others are years away rom marketability.

But that’s no excuse or ignoring them: Your product strategy must adapt to the increasing diversity o

the orm actors o the near uture or risk disruption and missed innovation opportunities.

TaBlE oF CoNT ENTSProdct Strateists Ris Missin Te

Innovations Arond Te Corner

Wht’s Net: Fe New Fr Fctrs are on

The Hrzn

A Five O Tese Form Factors Wi Advance

PostPC Consmer Comptin

Vae Proposition, Not Tecnoo, Wi

Determine Form Factor SccessRECommENDaTioNS

Tese Form Factors Are Te Ftre, Bt

Prodct Strateists Sod Act Now

NoTES & RESouRCES

Frrester eerged cnser dt r ts

Nrth aercn Techngrphcs® Teec and

Deces onne Recntct Sre, Q3 2011 (uS)

nd Nrth aercn Techngrphcs onne

Benchrk Sre, Q3 2011 (uS, Cnd).

Reated Researc Docments

“Wht The Pst-PC Er Re mens”

m 17, 2011

“Hethcre unbnd’s untpped Ptent”

agst 15, 2008

“ The x internet”

m 4, 2001

Deceber 12, 2011

Bend Tbets: The Net Fe Cptng FrFctrs T WtchPrdct Strtegsts Shd St ahed o Dsrptn Wth inntn Nwb Sara Rotman Epps

wth J.P. Gwnder nd Snder Rse

2

11

12

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© 2011, Frrester Reserch, inc. Reprdctn PrhbtedDeceber 12, 2011

Bend Tbets: The Net Fe Cptng Fr Fctrs T Wtch


2

PRODuCT STRATEgISTS RISk MISSINg ThE INNOVATIONS AROuND ThE CORNER

At Forrester, we interact with product strategists in a wide range o industries, rom media and

soware to consumer packaged goods (CPG), pharma, nancial services, retail, and utilities.

While product strategists in every industry are investing heavily in their product strategies or

smartphones and tablets, very ew are actively planning or what comes next. Rather than being in

ront o the next innovation, they’re playing catch-up — but this is risky, because:

· Tablets are not the fnal orm actor. In a 2007 report, we predicted that consumers would

adopt ve or more computing orm actors by 2012 — diversiying computing beyond

traditional desktops and laptops.1 With desktops, laptops, netbooks, tablets, and smartphones,

we’ve reached a ve-orm-actor reality. But innovation doesn’t stop here — computing orm

actors will continue to diversiy.

· New orm actors pose opportunities or disruption and innovation. ablets have introduceddisruptive competition or many products. For example, ashion magazines now compete with

eCommerce apps, such as Net-A-Porter magazine, on the iPad. ablets have also introduced

new innovation opportunities: Citibank, or example, has used the iPad to experiment with new

personal nance management tools or its customers. New orm actors will present similar

disruption and innovation opportunities or products in many industries.

Wat’s Next: Five New Form Factors Are On Te horizon

Product strategists in the PC industry are gearing up or 2012 to be the year o the “ultrabook” — very

thin, very light laptops, usually with solid-state drives (SSDs) — such as the Asus Zenbook and Lenovo

U300s, which compete with Apple’s MacBook Air. We agree that ultrabooks’ lighter, thinner orm will

appeal to many consumers. Already, 21% o US online consumers say they’re interested in owning

one.2 But we see the ultrabook as an evolution o the laptop rather than an entirely new orm actor.

Product strategists are — or should be — looking past tablets and ultrabooks. Based on what we see

in research and development (R&D) labs, new products beginning to come to market, and gaps in

consumer computing experiences, we’ve identied these ve orm actors as the best candidates or

what comes next (see Figure 1):

· Wearables. Wearable devices, or “wearables” or short, are devices worn on or near the body

that sense and relay inormation. Many wearables, such as the heads-up display (HUD) contact

lenses in development at the University o Washington, are years rom marketability (seeFigure 2). But other wearables are already available as consumer products or uses such as

communication and health and tness.3 In-ear Bluetooth cell phone headsets, used by 13% o

US mobile phone owners, are an early wearable geared at voice communication.4 Jawbone, a

leading manuacturer o Bluetooth headsets, has recently launched a new product called Up, a

wristband that tracks users’ physical activity and reminds them to move more when they are

inactive (see Figure 3). Up comes with an iPhone app, as do an increasing number o other



© 2011, Frrester Reserch, inc. Reprdctn Prhbted Deceber 12, 2011



3

wearables in the health and tness space, such as the Lark echnologies vibrating wristband that

doubles as an alarm clock and a sleep sensor, and BodyMedia FI Armbands, which have our

sensors to track activity, sleep, and calorie intake.

· Embedded devices. We dene embedded devices as physical objects that incorporate computing

processors and sensors, excluding those worn on the body, which we classiy as wearables. Like

wearables, embedded devices are diverse in orm, ranging rom devices such as Livescribe

smartpens that t into your pocket to LG Tinq rerigerators that sit in your kitchen (see Figure 4).

Embedded devices may or may not have a display — Livescribe pens don’t; the LG Tinq

appliances do. oday, embedded devices are widely used in industrial automation and automotives,

and they have emerging consumer uses in home automation, entertainment, and productivity.

· Suraces. Suraces are large interactive displays, which may incorporate multitouch, voice and

gesture control, acial recognition, near eld communication (NFC), quick response (QR) codes,

or other input/output mechanisms. oday, suraces are ound mostly in public places such as

hotels (Microso Surace tables in Sheraton bars) and conerences and events (Obscura Digital’s

custom multitouch video installations) as well as in education (interactive whiteboards) and

news media (red state/blue state maps). However, we see potential or additional uses, especially

in retail and marketing. For example, retailers such as Victoria’s Secret have commissioned the

design rm rog design to create interactive displays or their retail stores. In Seoul, South Korea,

retailers use suraces to extend their reach beyond their stores: esco Homeplus, the No. 2

grocery retailer in South Korea, built “virtual malls” in subway stations to reach more customers

without building more stores (see Figure 5). Commuters take pictures o QR codes under the

groceries they want to buy, and the groceries are delivered to their homes.5

· Flexible displays. Flexible displays are computing screens that can be rolled, olded, or exed.

Flexible devices can take the orm o personal devices, such as an eReader, or larger surace

displays, such as urniture or wallpaper. Among these ve orm actors, exible displays are

likely the arthest rom becoming commercialized products because o the lack o a dened use

case or customer: Polymer Vision, a spino o Philips Electronics, promoted its exible eReader

or years but declared bankruptcy beore bringing the device to market (see Figure 6). HP has

been developing printable Mylar displays that it imagines could be used or candy wrappers,

armband computers or the military, or living room wallpaper, but the displays are still several

years rom commercialization (see Figure 7).6

· Mini-projectors. Mini-projectors are small devices that project a larger image onto another

surace or, in the case o holographic projection, into 3D space. Mini-projectors can be combined

with cameras that recognize gesture to become interactive, similar to the Microso Kinect or

Xbox 360. oday, mini-projectors such as the Brookstone Pocket Projector are gaining in

popularity as iPhone accessories (see Figure 8). But they’re still a niche product, as consumers

must purchase them separately. Once projectors are embedded into the devices that consumers






4

already buy — such as smartphones, tablets, and laptops — projection will become more

mainstream even as standalone mini-projectors become obsolete. Apple has already led a patent

to embed interactive projectors into its iPhones, iPads, and Macs (see Figure 9). Embedded mini-

projectors would appeal primarily to inormation workers, but there could be broader consumeruses as well — impromptu photo slide shows or Youube viewing in a group, or example.

Fire 1 Defnng The Net Fe Fr Fctrs

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.60290

Form factor Denition Example

Wearables

Embedded devices

Surfaces

Flexible displays

Mini-projectors

Devices worn on or near the body thatsense and relay information

Physical objects that incorporatecomputing sensors and processors(excluding those worn on the body — seewearables)

Large, interactive displays, which mayincorporate multitouch, voice and gesturecontrol, facial recognition, NFC, QR codes,or other input/output mechanisms

Computing screens that can be rolled,folded, or exed

Small devices that project a larger imageonto another surface or, in the case of holographic projection, into 3D space

Lark Technologies sleep sensor, Jawbone Upwristband, or adidas adizero miCoach F50sneaker with embedded sensors

Livescribe smartpens or LG Thinq appliances

Microsoft Surface tables, Smart Technologiesinteractive whiteboards, or Obscura DigitalCueLight Interactive Pool Table System

Polymer Vision Readius eReader or HPprintable Mylar screen

Brookstone Pocket Projector or MicroVisionSHOWWX+ laser pico projector






5

Fire 2 Cntct lenses Wth Ebedded Heds-up Dsp are St in Deepent


These contact lenses with

embedded heads-up display,

in development at the

University of Washington,have been successfully

tested in rabbits.

Source: A. R. Lingley, M. Ali, Y. Liao, R. Mirjalili, M. Klonner, M. Sopanen, S. Suihkonen, T. Shen, B. P. Otis,H. Lipsanen, and B. A. Parviz, “A single-pixel wireless contact lens display,” Journal Of Micromechanics And Microengineering, IOPScience website, November 22, 2011






6

Fire 3 The Jwbne up Wrstbnd mntrs and Encrges Phsc actt


Source: Jawbone website






7

Fire 4 Ebedded Prcessrs, Cers, and mcrphnes Trn lescrbe Pens int Srtpens


Source: Livescribe website

Fire 5 a Phtrestc Srce Enbes Se Cters T order Grceres Wth Ther Phnes


Source: Tesco.com website

During this three-month

campaign, more than 10,000

people bought groceries at

Tesco Homeplus’ virtual malls,

increasing online sales by 130%.






8

Fire 6 Per vsn’s Febe eReder Hs yet T Fnd a mrket


Source: Polymer Vision website






9

Fire 7 HP is Testng Febe mr Screens


Source: The New York Times website






10

Fire 8 The Brkstne Pcket Prjectr Trns The Phne 4 int a mn-Prjectr


Source: Brookstone website






11

Fire 9 appe’s Ptent Fng Hnts at intercte Prjectrs Ebedded in appe Deces


Source: Patently Apple website

All FIVE OF ThESE FORM FACTORS WIll ADVANCE POST-PC CONSuMER COMPuTINg

raditional PC orm actors are not going away — Microso has sold more than 450 million licenses

o its newest operating system, Windows 7, and Mac sales are growing in the double digits quarter

aer quarter.7 But with new devices such as smartphones, tablets, and the orm actors that come next,

computing as a behavior is undamentally changing. We call this phenomenon the “post-PC era,” and

we see new orm actors such as wearables and suraces driving computing to become even more:8

· Ubiquitous. oday, people take their smartphones everywhere, computing in line at Starbucks

and in the bathroom. With wearables, computing becomes even more ubiquitous, ollowing you

even to sleep. Embedded devices expand the notion o computing to traditionally oine objects

such as pens and rerigerators. Tese ubiquitous computing experiences are very dierent rom

the stationary computing o a desktop PC.

· Casual. Smartphone computing is a casual activity done in in-between moments.9 New orm

actors will accelerate this trend — a wearable device is something you would use passively most

o the time, with brie periods o direct attention. Suraces in public places would hold your

attention in the moment beore you move on to the next thing. Tese computing interactions

depart rom the ormal, startup/shut-down interactions o a desktop PC.






12

· Intimate. ablets are a more intimate device than PCs; you hold them closer to your body, and

according to Nielsen, 21% o tablet time is actually spent lying in bed.10 New orm actors have

the potential to be even more intimate — wearables such as wristbands are worn on your skin,

and contact lens computing displays are worn in your eyes. Tis is a very dierent relationship

to computers than we have with the arms-length distance o a desktop PC.

· Physical. With tablets and smartphones, we have become accustomed to manipulating content

directly with our ngers versus the keyboard and mouse o a desktop PC. Suraces, embedded

devices, wearables, and interactive projectors will push the physicality o computing even

urther with gesture, voice, and other input/output mechanisms. Emotive clothing developed at

Simon Fraser University, or example, changes shape or applies pressure to your skin, depending

on the signals detected by sensors embedded in the abric.11

VAluE PROPOSITION, NOT TEChNOlOgy, WIll DETERMINE FORM FACTOR SuCCESS

echnology advances in sensors, displays, CPUs, memory, batteries, and network speed are driving

hardware innovation orward rapidly.12 But the soware and content or post-PC devices are just

catching up. ablets illustrate this conundrum: Among consumers who aren’t interested in buying

a tablet, the No. 1 reason they cite is that they “don’t think they need it,” and the No. 2 reason is

that “the cost o the device is too high,” while “the technology is still evolving” and “tablets don’t

have the eatures I want” are arther down the list.13 In other words, it’s the value proposition — not

the hardware — that is holding consumers back, which is why tablets that lead with content and

services at an aordable price, such as the Amazon Kindle Fire, will be more successul than tablets

that lead with eeds and speeds at a premium price, such as the Motorola Xoom.14

Product strategists must carry this same lesson orward: Te value proposition, rather than

technology maturity, will determine the success o new orm actors as well. Here’s how we see the

next ve orm actors rolling out:

· Suraces will appear in more retail settings in 2012. In 2012, we’ll see more retailers using

interactive displays to attract more shoppers to brick-and-mortar stores, as Diesel, Macy’s, and

Ralph Lauren have all done in the past. As suraces become more common in retail, we expect

them to populate other public spaces, classrooms, and ofces. Te prolieration o relatively

cheap components, such as the Microso Kinect or Xbox 360, increases the likelihood that

suraces will nd their way into consumers’ homes as well.

· Wearables will broaden rom health and ftness to more verticals in 2013. In 2012,

consumers will get used to seeing people wearing sensor-laden wristbands such as the Jawbone

Up. Beyond health and tness, product strategists rom verticals such as news, entertainment,

social networking, consumer products, retail, and personal nance should also take an interest

in wearables.






13

· Embedded devices will struggle to fnd a channel until 2014. By 2014, we expect new housing

starts to pick up, which will spur adoption o smart appliances such as rerigerators, washing

machines, thermostats, and smoke detectors. For non-housing-related embedded devices,

channel is denitely an obstacle: Would you look or smartpens in the pen aisle, the computer

peripheral aisle, or — as they’re placed in Best Buy — the eReaders and gadgets aisle? By 2014,

we expect product strategists and retailers to improve the channel and marketing strategy or

embedded devices.

· Flexible displays will not fnd a market beore 2015. Even though the technology has been

available or years, no product strategist has successully identied a go-to-market approach that

works or exible displays, and we don’t see this changing any time soon. Plastic Logic, Polymer

Vision, and other eReader rms have ailed to dene a value proposition or exible eReaders.

HP has been promoting its exible Mylar screen technology, but the company’s recent decrease

in net income will likely put pressure on R&D budgets.15

· Mini-projectors will go mainstream as soon as Apple embeds them in iOS and Macs. While

we can’t predict the year that this will happen, Apple’s patent ling makes it at least a possibility

that Apple will someday embed projectors in iOS devices and Macs. When they do, mini-

projection will immediately go mainstream. Tere are currently more than 250 million iOS

devices and 58 million Macs worldwide.16

R E C o m m E N D a T i o N S

ThESE FORM FACTORS ARE ThE FuTuRE, BuT PRODuCT STRATEgISTS ShOulD ACT NOWit’s es t red bt cntct enses wth ebedded heds-p dsps r cptng wpper

nd thnk tht these r ctrs he n berng n wht prdct strtegsts re dng td.

Bt prdct strtegsts wh see wht’s cng cn ntcpte dsrptn — r een nnte nd

bece dsrptrs thesees.17 Prdct strtegsts cn get hed the cre n 2012 b:

· Sociaizin innovation. it’s hrd t brek t qrter-b-qrter grnd nntn s nt

ed prt r crprte ctre. The 160-er-d New York Times brethes resh r

nt ts prdct strteg b testng t new techng n ts n-hse nntn b. Prcter

& Gbe s spnsr miT’s med lb, where t gns nsght nt nd heps shpe the

techng trrw. Stwre fr intt ntes spekers r ther frs t present t

ts ntern eents — sr t the ppr “TED Tks” spekng seres.18

· Incorporatin new orm actors into or fveear prodct strate. mn cents we

wrk wth he fe-er prdct strteges — bt the gener ncde n prdcts

reted t deces crrent n the rket, sch s be phnes nd tbets. i ’re

prdct strtegst — espec t ed r stwre fr, whch re st ke t be

dsrpted b new cnser deces — sk rsees, “Hw w new r ctrs dsrpt r

crrent prdct strteges? and wht pprtntes cn we crete t get hed the cre?”






14

· Bidin a onterm prodct strate arond apps. on bth be phnes nd tbets,

cnsers reprt spendng re ther te sng the brwser thn sng pps.19 We’e

been cer tht brwsers nd pps w cest n these deces.

20

Bt new r ctrs schs werbes, ebedded deces, nd srces re nke een t he brwsers, t est

nt n the r we knw the nw. S een r strteg s brwser-centrc td, pn

r sht t pp-centrc cntent dstrbtn er the ng ter. Strt wth the wng

thght eercses: i sene were t nterct wth ther sensr-ebedded hde

swetshrt, wht pp wd bd r tht? Wht bt wrstbnd r pr HuD

gsses? Frntre? Wpper? yr prdct strteg st dpt t the ncresng derst

the r ctrs the ner tre.

· Conceptaizin “microexperiences” or or prodct. Wimm lbs, Fcnn-nded

strtp bsed n ls ats, C., descrbes the pps n ts andrd-bsed werbes ptr

s “gncebe cr-eperences,” enng the’re desgned r etree bre nterctns,

ten wrkng n tnde wth nther nerb dece. Fr epe, when ser tches

nk t news hedne n Wimm’s wrstwtch, t nches the nk n the ser’s srtphne

brwser Betth. B the te the ser tkes her phne t her pcket, the phne’s

brwser hs red nched the news webste. Ths pprch kes sense, gen the tn

screen — ser ght wnt t keep p wth the news, bt she wdn’t wnt t red n

entre rtce n her wtch.

ENDNOTES

1 In 2007, we wrote, “By 2012, innovations in design will yield multiple new product categories and orm

actors tailored to specic applications and rooms in consumers’ households.” See the June 25, 2007, “Te

Age O Style In Consumer PCs” report.

2 Source: North American echnographics elecom And Devices Online Recontact Survey, Q3 2011 (US).

3 For early uses o wearables in healthcare, see the August 15, 2011, “Healthcare Unbound’s Untapped

Potential” report.

4 Source: North American echnographics Online Benchmark Survey, Q3 2011 (US, Canada).

5 During the three-month campaign, more than 10,000 people bought groceries at the virtual malls,

increasing Home Plus’ online sales by 130%. Source: Bruce Sterling, “Augmented Reality: Korean Home

Plus grocery shopping,” Wired , June 28, 2011 (http://www.wired.com/beyond_the_beyond/2011/06/

augmented-reality-korean-home-plus-grocery-shopping/).

6 Source: Nick Bilton, “At Hewlett-Packard, Flexible Displays From the Future,” Bits, Te New York imes,

June 22, 2011 (http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/22/at-hewlett-packard-exible-displays-rom-the-

uture/).

7 Source: Chris Velazco, “Microso Milestone: It Sold 450 Million Copies O Windows 7,” Seeking Alpha,

September 13, 2011 (http://seekingalpha.com/article/293424-microso-milestone-it-sold-450-million-














15

copies-o-windows-7) and “Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results,” Apple press release, October 18, 2011

(http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2011/10/18Apple-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-Results.html).

8 In this report, we dene the post-PC era and the stages in which post-PC product strategies will develop.

See the May 17, 2011, “What Te Post-PC Era Really Means” report.

9 According to Nielsen, people spend the majority o time on smartphones while waiting or something,

commuting, shopping, or running errands, oen with riends or amily, which Forrester considers to be

“in-between moments.” Source: “In the U.S., ablets are V Buddies while eReaders Make Great Bedellows,”

Nielsen Wire, May 19, 2011 (http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/in-the-u-s-tablets-are-tv-

buddies-while-ereaders-make-great-bedellows/).

10 Source: “In the U.S., ablets are V Buddies while eReaders Make Great Bedellows,” Nielsen Wire, May 19,

2011 (http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/in-the-u-s-tablets-are-tv-buddies-while-ereaders-

make-great-bedellows/).

11 Bloom is an interactive wearable that visualizes the emotions o human touch developed by students Alex

Akopyan, Andrew Chang, Yeieun Jang, Priscilla Lee and Carol u at Simon Fraser University. Source: Nueve,

“Bloom: A Nurturing Embrace,” Vimeo, May 2011 (http://vimeo.com/22598682) and Syuzi, “Bloom: Te

Emotional Side o Wearables,” ashioningtech.com, April 19, 2011 (http://www.ashioningtech.com/proles/

blogs/bloom-the-emotional-side-o).

12 Hardware innovation will continue to roil the tech ecosystem through 2016, orcing vendor strategists

at soware and services rms to adjust continuously to new hardware capabilities plus the new soware

eatures they’ll enable. See the August 24, 2011, “Computing Futures 2016: How Hardware Advances Will

Shi Vendor Prospects” report.


14 Forrester expects Amazon to sell 3 to 5 million Kindle Fires in Q4 2011. See the August 29, 2011, “Amazon

Will Be Apple’s op Competitor In ablets” report. [60747] Amazon’s quick ascension in the tablet market

will completely disrupt the status quo. Source: Sarah Rotman Epps, “Amazon Will Be ablet Product

Strategists’ New Frenemy,” Sarah Rotman Epps’ Blog For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals, August 29,

2011 (http://blogs.orrester.com/sarah_rotman_epps/11-08-29-amazon_will_be_tablet_product_strategists_

new_renemy).

15 For the ourth period, ended October 31, 2011, HP’s net income ell 91%. Source: Ben Worthen, “H-P Net

Plunges as Firm Reboots,” Te Wall Street Journal , November 22, 2011 (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100

01424052970204531404577052563620787868.html).

16 Source: Devin Coldewey, “im Cook: 250 Million iOS Devices Sold, Huge Retail rafc, Record Numbers

Everywhere,” echCrunch, October 4, 2011 (http://techcrunch.com/2011/10/04/250-million-ios-devices-

sold/).

17 Digital disruption is now set to turn its destructive orce on even nondigital products and services, inserting

new competitors, revamping old economics, and establishing new customer relationships along the way. We

reveal the secrets to digital disruption and show how all product strategists need to steal more than a ew
















16

pages rom the disruptor’s handbook in order to survive through the rest o this decade. See the October 27,

2011, “Te Disruptor’s Handbook ” report.

18 Intuit embraces a number o best practices to oster innovation. See the June 29, 2011, “Case Study: Intuit

Adapts Its Product Portolio o Exploit ablets” report.


20 oday, more consumers are using the browser more o the time than apps on tablets, even the iPad. See the

March 23, 2011, “Apps And Browsers Will Coexist On ablets” report.











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