beyond the pandemic - credit suisse

Global CIO Office

Beyond the pandemic Investment Monthly | Japan edition Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd | February 2021

Japan investment strategy Japan asset allocation Global investment strategy Pandemic shock Catalyst for Review of our portfolio allocations Retain preference for EM equities long-term change

page 3 page 6 page 10

Important Information This report represents the views of the Investment Strategy Department of CS and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research It is not a product of the Credit Suisse Research Department even if it contains published research recommendations CS has policies in place to manage conflicts of interest including policies relating to dealing ahead of the dis-semination of investment research These policies do not apply to the views of Investment Strategists contained in this report Please find further important information at the end of this material Singapore For accredited investors only Hong Kong For professional investors only Australia For wholesale clients only

Editorial

Michael Strobaek Global Chief Investment Officer

Burkhard Varnholt Chief Investment Officer ndash Swiss Univer-sal Bank

Progress on the COVID-19 front has been slow and bumpy with many Western economies still stuck in more or less stringent lockdowns Indeed we expect the ongoing restric-tions to lead to a soft patch in economic activity this quarter However as vaccine rollouts accelerate and infection rates decline meaningfully while strong fiscal and monetary policy support remains in place the second half should see strong economic growth This should further support cyclical assets

In the most recent meeting of our Investment Committee we therefore decided to retain our preference for equities partic-ularly emerging market equities and commodities We expect these asset classes to benefit from the eventual strong eco-nomic pick-up and central banksrsquo continued commitment to keep financial conditions easy Yet even if central banks keep short-term interest rates unchanged increasing growth momentum suggests that yields on government bonds will continue to rise As credit spreads are now close to post-fi-nancial crisis lows rising yields on benchmark bonds will hurt returns in credit We therefore lower our return outlook for developed market investment grade bonds from attractive to neutral and we take profit on our successful overweight allo-cation to emerging market hard currency sovereign bonds In addition we still favor cyclical and especially commodity currencies and believe that the USD will weaken further

On a more long-term note it is tangible that investors are in-creasingly mindful of environmental social and governance (ESG) criteria In the pages ahead we present our ldquoESG in-tegratedrdquo framework designed to help investors gradually transition to portfolios that perform solidly on both traditional financial performance metrics and ESG metrics

Enjoy the read

In this issue

Japan investment strategy 3 Pandemic shock Catalyst for long-term change

Japan asset allocation 6 Review of our portfolio allocations

Supertrends 7 Supertrends Investment solutions

Economics 9 Positive growth outlook beyond winter soft patch

Global investment strategy 10 Retain preference for EM equities

Special topic 11 ESG Integrated

Special topic 13 Bullish hopes in Chinarsquos Year of the Ox

Fixed income 14 EM HC corporate bonds preferred

Equities 15 Remain constructive on global equities

Alternative investments 16 Still positive on commodities

Foreign exchange 17 Keep favoring cyclical currencies

Forecasts 18 At a glance

Editorial deadline 17 February 2021

Investment Monthly | Japan edition Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd February 2021 2

Japan investment strategy

Pandemic shock Catalyst forlong-term change The COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate structural change in society and economy

Policymakers will seek to create a pandemic-resistant society and economy

Soichiro Matsumoto Chief Investment Officer Japan

Lockdown policies constitute a deflationary shock Globally lockdowns have been implemented on a wide scale to control the spread of COVID-19 infection This has led to a rapid contraction in demand and a downturn in the economy which has produced a deflationary shock to the global econ-omy To cope with this severe shock governments have launched counter-deflationary measures (reflationary policies) such as monetary easing and fiscal stimulus programs As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads and remains stubbornly resilient these counter-deflationary measures will need to be prolonged

In Europe and the USA the start of vaccination efforts has slowed down the spread of the disease In addition economic activity has recovered quickly in China and other Asian coun-tries due to their success in achieving early infection control The global economy has begun to recover backed by aggres-sive policy support The recovery is gaining momentum as investors are turning their attention toward equities (especially economically sensitive stocks) and commodities which benefit significantly from reflationary policies

A spike inflation can be a tail risk There is much to learn from Japanrsquos previous experience re-garding risks of taking only small steps to counter deflation In contrast the unprecedented scale of the measures currently being taken could lead to a potential ldquooverkillrdquo In particular the large fiscal spending plan currently being mooted in the USA will likely prompt caution about the tail risk of a sharp rise in long-term interest rates on account of a potential unanticipated spike in inflation

This means not only that bond prices will fall and support for current equity valuations will recede but also that there is a greater risk of fiscal pressure from significantly higher interest payments on public debt However the supply-demand gap in major countries is currently wide and we believe such concerns should be consigned to tail risk management

Post-pandemic social and economic changes will continue to accelerate Once the pandemic winds down the worldrsquos social and eco-nomic landscape is unlikely to return to the pre-pandemic ldquonormalrdquo Even if the COVID-19 outbreak is contained the risk of a new pandemic will always persist On the other hand it will be quite difficult to continue with the large-scale mone-tary easing and fiscal spending measures

Therefore the world will need to adjust socially and econom-ically such that it becomes more resistant to future pandemics As was the case when our global society and economy under-went major changes with the advent of the Internet those societies and economies that are able to adapt quickly will come out on top

Supply chain restructuring Due in part to the uncertainty and confusion surrounding the response to the COIVD-19 pandemic the West plus Japan seems to be growing increasingly wary of China In terms of geopolitical risk as the confrontation between the USA and China intensifies the major economies will each seek to in-creasingly rely on domestic supply chains

The global supply chain will likely undergo rapid restructuring especially in areas relating to technology such as cutting-edge semiconductors These are becoming increasingly im-portant not only for economic growth but also for national security Additionally there will be a need to rebuild procure-ment systems for critical medicines and medical supplies which were disrupted by the pandemic

In the past supply chain management has focused primarily on economic benefits but now the emphasis will be on supply chain resilience and independence This will add to cost pressure for companies but we also expect to see benefits due to increased new investment

Supertrends Increasing momentum for change The changes currently accelerating in the wake of the pan-demic will drive long-term structural changes which we have previously covered in our Supertrends reports The widespread adoption of remote work represents a new trend and will constitute a major driver of social and economic digitalization


Excessive urbanization which has contributed to the spread of infection will stall and this will provide an opportunity to rebuild urban infrastructure

Efforts to reduce socioeconomic disparities are also likely to gain momentum These efforts represent just the start of a push to prevent societies and economies from fragmenting in the face of a pandemic

ESG investment Growing interest in a sustainable so-ciety After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis the world became more aware of the pitfalls of short-term profit-seeking As a result many pension funds and investment institutions have become more supportive of the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) as promulgated by the United Nations There is now greater focus on working toward realizing a sustainable society which has led to changes in corporate behavior like improved governance As politicians are also aggressively moving toward measures to promote a sustain-able society a slew of new regulations relating to environmen-tal social and governance (ESG) have been introduced As a result ESG investment is gaining attention as a long-term investment theme and increasingly influencing stock prices

Increasing equity investment Bond investment returns have declined in the current pro-longed low interest rate environment On the other hand the amount of available investible funds is likely to increase due to the easy monetary policy while demand (for bonds) from pension funds is likely to trend higher on account of growing liabilities as the population ages

Long-term changes in global social and economic structures provide investment opportunities in various markets and businesses This will lead to a rise in investor allocations to related stocks and alternative investments

Focus shifts to corporate bonds As returns on government bond and other safe bond invest-ments have decreased considerably in this low interest rate environment investors have moved to more credit-related instruments However the interest rate spread on credit is shrinking gradually Therefore as part of our updated perspec-tive we are focusing on corporate bonds that are denominated in major currencies and are issued by emerging market (EM) companies EM companies are also expanding the scale of their operations and many have stable cash flow The high growth potential of Asian companies makes them an attractive investment target for investors seeking yield

Recommended investment strategies

Investors have learnt an important lesson from the unprece-dented pandemic They are now accustomed to the ldquoGreat Moderationrdquo and conscious of hedging their risks We believe the market has rediscovered the significance of global asset diversification as part of a strong long-term investment strat-egy

Strategies related to prolonged policy support mea-sures With ultra-loose monetary policy likely to be in place for an extended period investors should look to alternative strategies designed to increase yield Every investor will have a greater need to look for investments that convert an acceptable level of risk into yield This includes range-trading in currency markets where interest rate differentials are narrowing and the risk of large fluctuations is receding

Stocks that fit in with long-term themes that are expected to benefit from the transition to a new economic system post-COVID-19 continue toremain attractive Gold is also likely to continue to attract attention as a risk hedge

Strategies for the onset of the economic recovery As the economy recovers while interest rates remain low in-vestment in credit (corporate bonds) will become attractive In particular Asian countries that have been successful in controlling the spread of infection and dollar-denominated bonds issued by companies in this region may constitute an effective strategy for seeking yield

The economic recovery and changing consumption styles are likely to increase investor interest in economically sensitive value stocks as well as stocks of companies that fit in with new market landscape As companies become more aggres-sive in mergers amp acquisitions (MampA) and other investments to reform their business structure private equity too can be an interesting investment option

Accelerating changes related to the pandemic Investment opportunities provided by receding globalism Political commitments designed to deal with Japanrsquos social fragmentation are expected to provide long-term invest-ment opportunities We now focus on strategies including infrastructure investment funds private equity and the long-term themes discussed in a Supertrends series report

Investment lesson ndash increased awareness of risk hedging A growing awareness of the importance of risk prepared-ness is expected to lead to greater global asset diversifica-tion as part of a long-term investment strategy This is because such a strategy can be expected to effectively stabilize returns without incurring a high additional cost

Investment themes related to the advent of a new digital society The pandemic has changed the way people inter-act with each other on a socioeconomic level considerably This has accelerated the rate of digitalization across the economy Our Supertrends series reports explore a number of related investment themes and strategies

Investment opportunities related to full-scale efforts to improve sustainability The world as a whole is now more amenable to accepting the costs of improving sustainability One of the best examples is efforts to create a carbon-free society The adoption of investment metrics that incor-porate an awareness of ESG will also increase Additionally our Supertrend ldquoClimate changerdquo encompasses pertinent investment ideas


Reaffirming the appeal of Supertrends Examining tail risk Uncontrollable inflation and rising After the pandemic our society is changing at an accelerating pace Our long-term investment themes called Supertrends can be a suitable option for the prudent investor in such times

interest rates In response to the pandemic global debt has ballooned to unprecedented levels Thanks to historically low interest rates the burden of this debt is sustainable However investors should be aware of related risks Uncontrolled inflation and a sharp rise in interest rates may continue to be a tail risk for the market (17022021)


Japan asset allocation

Review of our portfolio allocations The annual review of our Strategic Asset Allocation leads us to reduce our allocation to bonds in portfolios and increase allocations to equities and alternative investments

Soichiro Matsumoto Investment map (regions vs asset classes) Chief Investment Officer Japan

Annual review of our Strategic Asset Allocation Every year Credit Suisse updates its macro market forecasts (risk and return potential) for the next five years and publishes these forecasts in the form of our Capital Market Assumptions (CMA) Based on the new CMA we have review and update our our medium-term asset allocation benchmarks also known as our Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA)

For our 2021 SAA the allocation to bonds has decreased due to lower expected returns while our allocations to equities and alternative investments have increased Source Credit Suisse

(16022021)

JPY international tactical asset allocation (TAA balanced) Balanced TAA Vs benchmark Benchmark SAA 2021

January February Change January February

Liquidity 20 40 20 -30 -10 50

JPY 20 40 20 -30 -10 50

Fixed income 465 315 -150 -10 -10 325

JPY 25 35 10 -15 -05 40

Global corporates 330 180 -150 -15 -15 195

Global high yield 30 30 00 00 00 30

Emerging markets bond USD 40 30 -10 10 00 30

Emerging markets USD corporate 00 40 40 NA 10 30

Equity Emerging markets bond LC 40

445 00 520

-40 75

10 20

NA 20

00 500

Japan 155 180 25 -10 -10 190

World (ex Japan) 290 340 50 30 30 310

Switzerland 05 05 00 00 00 05

Eurozone 25 25 00 00 00 25

North America 125 150 25 00 00 150

United Kingdom 20 20 00 10 10 10

Australia 05 05 00 00 00 05

Emerging markets 50 60 10 20 20 40

LatAm 00 00 00 00 -05 05

APAC 45 50 05 20 20 30

EMEA 05 05 00 00 00 05

Supertrends 60 75 15 00 00 75 Alternative investments 70 125 55 20 00 125

Real estate Japan 25 25 00 00 00 25

Hedge fund 00 25 25 NA 00 25

Private equity 00 75 75 NA 00 75

Commodities 45 00 -45 20 NA 00 Total 1000 1000 00 00 00 1000

Source Credit Suisse


Supertrends

Supertrends Investmentsolutions In this installment we focus on the ldquoClimate changerdquo Supetrend and suggest investment solutions from sectors that can contribute significantly to reducing greenhouse gas emissions as well as mitigating long-term impacts of global warming

Maki Shimizu Investment Strategist - Japan Strategy

Policy tailwinds The ldquoClimate changerdquo theme is strongly influenced by policy factors hence we expect the recent change of government in the USA to lead to renewed interest in environmental policy issues On his first day in office last month US President Joe Biden announced his countryrsquos return to the Paris Agreement ndash an international framework for combating global warming ndash and began to shift policy course from the previous adminis-tration On environmental issues it may be difficult to reverse the international communityrsquos distrust and skepticism of the USA brought about by the ldquoAmerica Firstrdquo approach of the past four years However shifting to renewable energy sources is one of the major policy targets of President Biden and international cooperation on this issue will likely be gen-uinely welcomed

Currently countries that have ratified the Paris Agreement are struggling to meet their targets for reducing emissions by 2050 As policy support increases business opportunities related to environmental policy are likely to expand at the private sector level Here we focus on sectors that fall under this Supertrend because of their ability to contribute signifi-cantly to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating long-term impacts of global warming

Investment solution features A common catchphrase for all four sub-themes associated with this Supertrend is ldquosustainable energy supplyrdquo With the Paris Agreementrsquos goal of ldquocarbon neutralityrdquo in mind we look for investment opportunities arising out of a structural transformation in the energy sector via carbon-free electricity sustainable transportation pioneering oil and gas energy conversion and agriculture and food sub-themes We high-light climate change-related companies that primarily develop renewable energy and provide energy storage technologies

Besides companies that are likely to see continued growth via the long-term shift in energy policy we highlight others that are likely to reform the agriculture sector by incorporating automation in their production processes Additionally we highlight related entries from our environmental social and

governance (ESG) related stock list (ESG Top 25) that were discussed in the recent Supetrends report In mutual funds in addition to the Global Security Fund we offer solutions that enable investment in areas related to rising climate change awareness from an ESG perspective

(17022021)


Supertrends

Theme Detail Recommended solution

Anxious societies ndash Inclusive capitalism

AM One Global Security Stock Fund CS Beneficiaries of Anxious Societies Selection

Affordability Basis goods such as housing healthcare and pension have become unaffordable for many people

Employment Skilling reskilling and upskilling are crucial steps as technical progress radically changes required skill set

Personal security Everyday challenges such as the pandemic outbreak or cybersecurity are the most important pain points for people

Infrastructure ndash Closing the Global Core Infrastructure Stock gap Fund CS Infrastructure List

Transport Developed markets have to invest in project replacements while emerging markets continue to spend on growth

Energy amp water Energy transition toward renewables to limit global carbon emission Middle East faces an acute water shortage

Smart cities As 68 of the worldrsquos population will live in urban areas by 2050 cities must become smarter to handle this strong growth

Telecom infrastructure As 5G will be the next major investment cycle for the mobile industry mobile traffic may grow almost five-fold

Technology at the service of AM One Global Security Stock humans Fund CS Technology Selection

Digitalization The number of connected devices is surging and thus edge computing is expected to gain traction in order to capture even more value from data

Virtual reality Growing to the size of todayrsquos smartphone market in the years ahead

Artificial intelligence (AI) Material growth potential for home industries and cities digitalization and healthtech and fintech markets

Industry 40 Robots and automation are entering various non-industry sectors demand for industry robots is rising

Healthtech Digitalization solution biotechnology and AI in product development and healthcare research Silver economy ndash Investing for Select Sector SPDR ETFs (Health-population aging care Consumer Staples Consumer

Discretionary) CS Silver Economy Stocks

Therapeutics amp devices Biopharma and medical device companies to innovate around senior conditions such as heart disease amp cancer

Care amp facilities Managed care organizations hospitals and dedicated facilities to face increasing demand

Health amp life insurance Private pension gap in emerging markets and growing importance of private pension fund amp insurance solutions

Senior consumer choices High spending power of seniors to benefit consumer companies with senior-centric offerings Millennials values AM One Global Security Fund CS

Millennials Favorites

Sustainable business and invest- ESG overlay across the entire millennials stock universe to underpin the importance of sustainability ments

Digital natives Being connected 247 having a strong preference for technology brands driving an education technology revolution

Fun health amp leisure A new way of living and spending with substantial growth potential in emerging markets Climate change AM One Global Security Fund CS

Climate Change Choice ESG Top 25 promotion list

Carbon-free electricity CO2-neutral electricity production and the replacement of coal-fired electricity as a key component of CO2 reduction

Oil amp gas transition pioneers Demand for fossil fuel remains high for now while the transition pioneers will be leading the sector

Sustainable transport Sustainable fuels a switch to electric vehicles more efficient engines and railroads will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

Agriculture amp food A growing population and a high CO2 emission from the agriculture sector require efficiency gains



Economics

Positive growth outlook beyondwinter soft patch After a likely soft patch in the winter months we expect very strong growth this year

The main risk to our near-term forecast is new virus strains that may necessitate further shutdowns

James P Sweeney Chief Economist and Regional CIO Americas

Peter James Foley Economist

Global growth rebounded strongly in the second half of 2020 We expect a winter soft patch most noticeable in Europe as viral contagion leads to mobility restrictions that hamper service sector activity Beyond that the growth outlook is very positive

Global demand has recently been propped up by developed market households Real retail sales in developed economies have exceeded pre-pandemic levels since September and are now above the long-term trend Business investment has risen too but not as much as consumption The onus is on business investment to drive the recovery further

A dominant feature of the pandemic economy has been the contrast between goods demand which has recovered sharply and services demand which has suffered due to social distancing The divergence is likely to unwind this year as spending that was redirected to goods in 2020 returns to services in 2021 Services consumption in developed market economies is about twice as large as goods consumption and is likely to increase strongly this year as vaccine rollouts support an expansion of activity

In that sense consumer spending on services might substitute some goods spending But at the same time a resurgent service sector may give further tailwinds to the goods sector through business spending

Uncertainties about variants vaccines and stimulus COVID-19 infections are falling in Europe and the USA But new highly contagious strains risk new or extended shut-downs which are the main downside risk to our near-term forecast

Vaccine rollout has not been smooth but the USA and UK will likely vaccinate a sufficient share of their populations by this summer that a strong services recovery is likely Europe and other major economies lag behind which may mean longer restrictions on activity Normalization appears to be out of reach before Q3 in large economies but vaccinations will support increased mobility

The USA is likely to pass another pandemic stimulus bill soon It will likely cost at least half the USD 19 tn price tag of the original plan but even this reduced size will substantially affect the US growth outlook Direct checks to households will im-mediately boost consumer spending and increase household savings further

There is less uncertainty over Eurozone policy support but it may not be forceful enough Europersquos fiscal policy so far has focused on mitigation rather than stimulation But this means that as the economy recovers fiscal support will fade meaning limited upside to growth The European Central Bank has stated it can ease policy further but it is unclear whether this will boost lending in the real economy

Last yearrsquos contraction in the Eurozone was larger than in the USA But the rebound is likely to be weaker We expect Eu-rozone GDP to grow 50 in 2021 while US GDP should grow 57 (12022021)


Global investment strategy

Retain preference for EM equities Continued fiscal and monetary policy support and an easing of the pandemic should help Western economies see strong growth in the second half of the year

We retain a cyclical tilt in portfolio allocations through overweight positions in equities with a preference for EM equities and commodities

Philipp Lisibach Chief Global Strategist

The Credit Suisse Investment Committee (IC) has reduced emerging market hard currency (EM HC) sovereign bonds to strategic allocations and changed the return outlook for devel-oped market investment grade (IG) bonds from attractive to neutral Equity allocations are kept at overweight with a continued preference for emerging markets The BCOM also remains at overweight

Reflation expected to support cyclical assets Even though the pandemic continues to weigh on economic activity falling infection rates and hospitalizations alongside vaccine rollouts should allow economies to reopen In combi-nation with continued fiscal and monetary policy support Western economies are likely to see exceptionally strong growth in the second half of 2021 The USA is currently benefiting from a second relief package which is likely to be followed by a third one soon adding fuel to the expected concerted recovery

As such the IC keeps a cyclical bias in portfolio allocations expressed by overweights in equities and the broad commod-ity index (BCOM) In equities we continue to express a pref-erence for emerging markets specifically Chinese equities which show strong price momentum having outperformed global equities since the start of the year Although China has initiated policy-tightening measures we think it will take these steps in a controlled manner without risking denting market sentiment

Risk of inflation scare mitigated by central bank com-mitments Besides the risk that new virus strains with potential resistance to vaccines may fuel market concerns markets could start consolidating in coming months should a rise in US inflation

due to base effects lead to an inflation scare Although we think that such an inflation increase will be temporary uncer-tainty about the outlook for the second half is elevated due to the expected strong growth and likely supply-side bottle-necks as economies reopen To mitigate this risk the contin-ued commitment by central banks above all the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep financial conditions easy will be key Recent comments by Fed Chair Powell stressing patience and suggesting that the economy is far from overheating give us confidence that this key market support will stay in place For real assets such as equities and commodities this should continue to prove beneficial

Tight credit spreads Although the anchoring of treasury yields for shorter maturities via central banksrsquo rate guidance should prevent a sudden surge in longer-dated yields we expect them to grind higher as growth momentum builds Thus performance is expected to continue to suffer and the IC is keeping government bonds at underweight Due to tight IG credit spreads the IC has reduced the return outlook for IG from attractive to neutral For EM HC sovereign bonds we take profit on our successful overweight and cut portfolio allocations back to strategic levels as spreads have eroded Investors should find more value in EM HC corporate as well as selected EM local sovereign bonds Despite some USD consolidation at the start of this year the USD is likely to continue its weakening trend against other major currencies in coming months

Watch a video featuring the highlights of the Credit Suisse investment strategy wwwcredit-suissecomciofilm

(15022021)


Special topic

ESG Integrated Investing according to environmental social and governance (ESG) criteria is in the process of becoming mainstream

Combining the House View with ESG convictions ldquoESG Integratedrdquo is a set of best ideas for investors to gradually transition to multi-asset portfolios that perform solidly both on traditional financial performance metrics and on ESG metrics ldquoESG Integratedrdquo is part of our Signature Convictions

Nannette Hechler-Faydherbe Chief Investment Officer ndash International Wealth Management

Jessie Gisiger Head of Credit Strategy and Investment Themes

Green transitions are at the heart of the fiscal spending and recovery plans put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic Against this backdrop strong regulatory momen-tum and fiscal ambitions in the USA Europe and China have only added to a global trend toward integrating ESG criteria at every level of economic activity

There is growing evidence that adhering to ESG criteria not only helps to mitigate our impact on climate change but also supports financial risk-reward for several reasons First be-sides increasing transparency and awareness ESG filters help keep in check the risk of heightened regulatory scrutiny that non-ESG-compliant business practices increasingly face Second ESG factors can impact financial business conditions such as the incurred cost of capital Focusing on good gover-nance and keeping an eye on regulatory risk are equally likely to be beneficial when considering default risk in the corporate bond market Third there are strong investment themes emerging from the policy support currently developing espe-cially in climate change to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050

Signature Convictions ESG Integrated Combining key elements of the Credit Suisse House View with thematic priorities in ESG investing that emerge from these catalysts we have developed a set of best ideas (see table) that can help investors gradually transition their invest-ments toward multi-asset portfolios that perform solidly on both traditional financial performance metrics as well as ESG metrics

In fixed income ESG emerging market corporate bonds and ESG subordinated bonds offer investors an avenue to earn a yield pick-up but at a lower risk of credit spread widening than the broader index Empirical assessments have also shown that companies with higher ESG scores tend to have a lower probability of default Investors looking for an equiva-lent to money-market instruments may consider impact invest-ments which deliver low single-digit returns with limited vola-tility

In equities we highlight the Supertrends climate change and sustainable infrastructure as two key ESG-related themes that are focused on decarbonizing economic activity and are catalyzed by global regulatory momentum For investors looking for single-stock investments our Credit Suisse ESG Top 25 list includes stocks from our high conviction list that are in category 3 (ldquoESG awarerdquo) or category 4 (ldquoThematicrdquo) of our Credit Suisse ESG classification framework

Investors who would like to invest according to our preference for EM equities also have the option of doing so in an ESG-compliant manner through the MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Leaders Index That index has on average outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since 2008 This outperfor-mance can be explained by the MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Leaders Indexrsquos higher exposure to growth sectors and strong orientation to new economy sectors that benefit from powerful structural growth drivers Separately green real estate is likely to lead to higher occupancy rates and a lower probabil-ity of income loss resulting in a more stable income stream

For investors looking to alternative investments for further diversification impact private equity sustainable alpha hedge fund and carbon emission allowance futures are also interest-ing


Signature Convictions ESG Integrated


(16022021)


Special topic

Bullish hopes in Chinarsquos Year ofthe Ox Our positive view on equities remains in place We express it through a preference for emerging market particularly Chinese equities

After strong gains so far this year we challenge the quality and longevity of Chinarsquos bull market and explain why we remain optimistic

John William Huia Woods CIO APAC

Just ahead of Chinese New Year Chinarsquos benchmark Shanghai Composite Index surged to new highs for the year Chinarsquos strong market gains are fueled by a rush of excess liquidity the likes of which we have not seen since 2015 But experienced investors will know that a rising tide can just as easily ndash and quickly ndash turn into an ebbing tide particularly when fundamentals become unsupportive

Red flags In fact red flags are not hard to find Possibly the most im-portant observation is that Chinarsquos growth momentum has passed its peak and will likely decelerate into 2021 A decel-erating economy does not necessarily hurt a bull market but it does not necessarily help it either

Equally important is the view that Chinarsquos ndash increasingly less dovish ndash authorities are unlikely to further stimulate the economy It has been widely observed that they remain vigilant and concerned toward the possible formation of price bubbles in real and financial assets including equity markets

Indeed the Peoplersquos Bank of Chinarsquos willingness in late January 2021 to withdraw rather than add CNY 570 bn of liquidity from interbank markets ahead of the Chinese New Year suggests that a clear inflection point has been reached with monetary policy now normalizing after two years of stimulus and easy money

Amid decelerating economic growth corporate revenues are under pressure meaning analyst earnings revisions are flat-lining and thus failing to keep pace with more vibrant emerging andor developing markets In absolute terms weaker earn-ings exert upward pressure on valuations Yet a liquidity-driven rally can still push valuations higher

Imbalance The liquidity-centric imbalance at the heart of Chinarsquos bull market leaves it exposed and vulnerable to correction in our opinion An environment of tightening monetary policy decel-erating growth and stretched valuations are generally not conducive to sustained price appreciation In fact in Chinarsquos case incrementally greater inflows of liquidity will be required to sustain existing price levels At least from an onshore per-spective the music will stop

Intriguingly attention is now turning to foreign investor inflows which hitherto have been muted But there are reasons why a rebound in sentiment might be expected including improving geopolitical sentiment with the new administration in the USA and expectation of CNY appreciation which should boost returns for USD investors Overall a reacceleration in flows could be a key factor in keeping Chinese markets supported

Sound diversification is key On balance at least for the next few months we remain overweight Chinese equities in a portfolio context Our funda-mental concerns are medium-term in nature while near-term risks ndash supported by liquidity ndash are tilted toward further price gains In line with our House View we emphasize the value of well-diversified exposure to EM equities overall

(15022021)


Fixed income

EM HC corporate bonds preferred The ongoing reflationary path is going to support long-dated yields warranting a con-tinued cautious stance on government bonds

We reduce our allocation to EM HC sovereign bonds to benchmark weight We no longer see IG credit as attractive and prefer EM HC corporate bonds

Luca Bindelli Head of Fixed Income and Currency and Commodity Strategy

Global benchmark yields have continued to trend higher in the last few weeks supported by reflationary expectations Despite the marketsrsquo repricing of more US fiscal stimulus the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept control of front-end rates expectations with the US yield curve further steepening as a result Going forward long-dated inflation expectations are still expected to be the main driver of nominal benchmark yields Both should moderately rise in tandem particularly in the USA With other developed regions following the same reflationary theme albeit with a lag we anticipate that global government bonds will remain an unattractive investment We therefore keep exposure below benchmark allocations in portfolios Furthermore we keep a relatively short duration stance in US Eurozone and Swiss bond markets and prefer US inflation-linked bonds over comparable nominal govern-ment bonds

IG credit no longer attractive prefer EM HC corporate bonds We no longer think that global investment grade (IG) credit offers attractive return potential While monetary policy re-mains supportive IG spreads are already at historical lows and no longer offer enough compensation against the further rise in benchmark yields we expect Global high yield (HY) credit market returns should remain attractive thanks to policy support and the economic recovery we project However we

see limited further spread compression potential in US HY and European HY from the current historical lows We believe emerging market hard currency (EM HC) corporate bonds are most attractive within credit with pro-cyclical emerging markets benefiting from the global growth rebound expected this year At the same time and due to their comparatively low benchmark duration EM HC corporate bonds are less sensitive to higher US government yields than global IG EM HC corporates on average provide similar credit fundamentals to developed market credit but offer more attractive spreads amid the current reflationary environment Also we see more opportunities in EM HC HY corporates particularly in Asia where spreads offer a premium of around 200 bp over US HY

EM HC sovereigns reduced to benchmark allocation EM HC sovereign bond valuations are currently tight with spreads not far off the lows reached after the great financial crisis Inflation has largely bottomed out due to base effects food and energy prices and there is limited scope for further monetary stimulus EM HC sovereign bond spreads have a high correlation with US Treasury yields With the latter still on the rise risks to EM HC sovereign bonds are increasing Positioning is at record highs and flows continue to acceler-ate This suggests that a further strong performance is less likely Given these considerations we have decided to reduce EM HC sovereign bonds to benchmark allocation in our portfolios (12022021)


Equities

Remain constructive on globalequities We maintain our attractive return outlook for global equities with a preference for emerging markets UK Germany financials materials and health care

After a double-digit earnings decline in 2020 global earnings are set to recover sharply this year

Marc Haumlfliger Global Equity Strategist

We maintain our attractive return outlook for global equities on the back of supportive monetary conditions vaccine roll-outs growing stimulus prospects and our constructive outlook for economic and earnings growth While traditional valuation metrics remain elevated they look less stretched relative to other asset classes such as global treasury bonds The earnings recovery is key to our thesis of attractive returns for global equities as we do not expect further re-ratings (ie higher multiples) to drive equity markets going forward So far the Q4 earnings results underpin our view that companies have learned how to deal with the current circumstances given earnings results are mostly surpassing projections As a result of this strong showing global EPS growth rates (YoY) will likely be positive again for the Q4 2020 earnings season After an overall double-digit earnings decline in 2020 global earnings are set to recover sharply this year ndash particularly in cyclical market segments Risks to our constructive view on equities come from COVID-19 concerns (mutation potential vaccine disappointments) disappointing fiscal stimulus or earlier-than-expected comments about a withdrawal of mon-etary stimulus

In a portfolio context we keep our overweight in emerging market (EM) equities as we remain bearish on the USD ex-pect higher commodity prices and see the re-opening environ-ment as positive for EM equities We expect cyclical segments that lagged the broader equity benchmark in 2020 ndash such as the UK Germany and financials ndash to catch up amid the im-proved economic outlook and rising inflation expectations

Latest view changes In developed market equities we turn neutral from outperform on Hong Kong equities as a result of their strong performance in recent weeks and increasing macro headwinds In EM eq-uities we now expect South African equities to outperform driven by attractive valuation a strong earnings picture and an accommodative central bank We no longer expect Indian equities to underperform and turn neutral following the gov-ernmentrsquos pro-growth budget announcement an improved macroeconomic outlook and earnings estimates being revised higher at a faster pace than peers

Earnings expected to recover in 2021

Last data point 09022020 Historical performance indications and financial market

scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance Source Factset

Estimates Credit Suisse

(12022021)


Alternative investments

Still positive on commodities Commodity performance has been strong year-to-date A near-term pause is possible but we retain a positive view and prefer diversified exposure with a cyclical bias

Despite recent resilience we expect listed real estate to lag equities In hedge funds we highlight opportunistic long-short discretionary and EM macro managers as well as private credit

Jelena Kucenko Head of Alternative Investments

Stefan Graber Head of Commodity Strategy

Hedge funds Be selective Hedge funds were flat in January as short covering activity at month-end erased initial gains Fundamental long-short and macro funds suffered the most while relative value and event driven were more resilient Our Trading Conditions Barometer is in favorable territory Combined with regional and sector divergences arising from vaccine rollouts compli-ance with environmental social and governance criteria and record levels of capital-market activity this creates opportuni-ties for long-short managers We also highlight private credit strategies with a focus on consumer loans and mid-market companies which should benefit from resilient household fi-nances and a post-pandemic recovery Discretionary and emerging market (EM) macro managers are preferred in case of market setbacks

Commodities Providing cyclicality and inflation hedge Commodities started 2021 on a strong note focusing on positive growth expectations instead of near-term COVID-19 concerns A near-term pause is possible as the latest gains came ahead of an anticipated reacceleration in industrial ac-tivity That said improved bottom-up fundamentals have flipped aggregate curves into backwardation translating into positive roll yields which may attract additional investor inter-est Commodities also provide a hedge should inflation sur-prise to the upside We retain our positive view on the asset class and favor diversified exposure with a cyclical tilt (oil energy) For oil the March OPEC+ meeting is the next event

risk and a potential source of volatility as the group will likely discuss supply hikes We still think that gold offers diversifica-tion and some upside but the bull run could be maturing as yield curves have started to steepen We thus tone down our optimism on the metal

Real estate Expected to underperform equities Listed real estate slightly outperformed global equities in January thanks to strong earnings results in logistics and a rebound in oversold retail companies as short sellers covered their positions But we believe that further upside potential for the sector is limited as the impact of lockdowns is not yet reflected in landlordsrsquo share prices in our view Additionally valuations in structurally resilient sectors such as logistics and data centers already reflect fundamentals This and the prospect of higher long-term yields and an increased risk of US regulatory headwinds reinforce our negative sector view

Private equity Backdrop still positive Robust investment activity at the end of last year pushed pri-vate equity deal values higher but the asset class still offers better priced opportunities than public markets Dry powder ndash committed but uninvested capital ndash is at a record of over USD 2 trn with subdued fundraising activity expected to re-bound as investors increase commitments in 2021 according to data provider Preqin The expected economic rebound is supportive for the asset class but rising long-term interest rates pose risk to financing costs We highlight strategies offering high growth with limited leverage (venture capital growth capital) and secondary funds which can exploit market opportunities tactically generating excess returns over time

(12022021)


Foreign exchange

Keep favoring cyclical currencies We maintain a short USD bias and prefer commodity and cyclical currencies such as the EUR GBP or SEK

Within our positive emerging market stance we particularly like the CNY KRW BRL and RUB


The USD was broadly flat against other major currencies over the last month Investorsrsquo focus on US fiscal stimulus and an expected rise in US inflation allowed for some normalization in previously large USD short positions While the repricing of near-term growth expectations also in light of a more rapid US vaccination campaign created temporary USD resilience we think this improvement is likely partly reflected in the USD already We maintain that as the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps short-term rates close to zero for longer there is little room for sustained gains in the USD Moreover US fiscal stimulus will not only deteriorate fiscal balances but also deepen the current account deficit This will also benefit the global econ-omy through improved global trade and sentiment which should weigh on the USD Uncertainties relating to new COVID-19 variants and extended USD short positioning re-main a risk in the short term

Constructive on cyclical currencies A slow start to vaccine rollouts and renewed political risks in Italy somewhat dented sentiment toward the EUR in early February Even so the single currency remained stable vs the USD The Eurozone is facing a delayed recovery but this is consensus already and likely temporary in nature With political risks now subsiding the EU recovery fund operational in the next quarter and the global growth recovery benefitting the export-oriented Eurozone we think EURUSD can gain some further ground and target 124 in 3M Elsewhere in Europe we also remain positive on the SEK and the GBP

vs the USD With global reflation set to continue and com-modity prices likely to remain supported through the ongoing rebalancing we still favor commodity currencies in particular the NZD CAD and NOK

BRL RUB CNY and KRW preferred Emerging market (EM) currencies were broadly range-bound on an index level over the last month but with significant re-turn dispersion across currencies The main arguments sup-porting our attractive view on EM FX remain in place We continue to see further scope for a broad appreciation of EM FX versus the USD Even though the EM economic recovery has peaked economic activity still looks solid relative to de-veloped markets External positions remain in good shape and non-resident flows are still supportive In addition with inflation bottoming and food prices increasing scope for dovish EM central bank surprises seems to be exhausted This should be favorable for EM carry versus the USD

The RUB BRL CNY and KRW remain our preferred curren-cies in EM Both the RUB and BRL are cheaply valued Addi-tionally the RUB should profit from attractive risk-adjusted carry and the BRL from more hawkish central bank expecta-tions In Asia we remain positive on the CNY and KRW and neutral on the other Asian FX We lower our 3M USDCNY target to 635 but keep our 12M target at 625 Our USDKRW targets remain unchanged at 1060 and 1010 in 3M and 12M respectively We retain a mild downward bias on the other USDAsia pairs expecting broad USD weak-ness (12022021)


Forecasts

At a glance More information on the forecasts and estimates is available Credit Selected indices on request Past performance is not an indicator of future

Yield Spread Duration 3M TR 12M TR fore-performance Performance can be affected by commissions () (bp) (years) forecast cast fees or other charges as well as exchange rate fluctuations BC Global Aggregate 091 33 731 -010 010

BC Global Treasuries 058 9 862 -030 -050

BC Global IG Corp 141 94 735 033 130 Central bank rate10-year government bonds BC Global HY Corp 429 378 416 062 247

CB rate 10Y JPM EMBI Global Di- 480 344 764 032 126 yield versified HC

in Spot 3M 12M Spot 3M 12M

CHF -075 -075 -075 -026 -030 -030 BC = Barclays Capital IG= Investment Grade JPM = JP Morgan (EMBI+) Index data as of 1522021 Forecast as on 1522021

EUR -050 -050 -050 -035 -030 -030 These forecasts are no reliable indicators of future performance Source Bloomberg

USD 013 000-025 000-025 130 140 150 Credit Suisse GBP 010 010 010 062 050 060

AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140

JPY -010 -010 -010 010 010 010 Foreign exchange

Spot 3M 12M Spot rates are closing prices as of 1622021 Forecast date 1122021 These

EURUSD 121 124 125 forecasts are no reliable indicators of future performance Source Bloomberg Credit SuisseIDC USDCHF 089 087 088

EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000

Equities EURGBP 087 087 086

GBPUSD 139 143 145 Index Spot PE Div y 3M 12M () AUDUSD 078 078 079

MSCI AC World 1679 202 22 1690 1790 USDCAD 126 123 120

US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020

Eurostoxx 50 3726 181 26 3700 3850 EURNOK 1016 1020 1020

UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459

Japan Topix 1965 185 21 1940 1970 USDCNY 646 635 625

Australia SampPASX 6917 207 38 6900 7150 USDSGD 132 131 128

200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000

Switzerland SMI 10908 186 28 10950 11400 USDINR 7264 7270 7200

MSCI Emerging Mar- 190621 166 22 194000 207000 USDBRL 538 525 530 kets USDMXN 1994 2050 2150

Prices as of 1622021 Forecast as on 1122021 Gross return (incl dividends) Spot rates are as of 1722021 These forecasts are no reliable indicators of future performance Source Bloomberg These forecasts are no reliable indicators of future performance Source Bloomberg Datastream Credit SuisseIDC Credit SuisseIDC

Commodities Real GDP growth and inflation Spot 3M 12M GDP Inflation

Gold (USDoz) 1793 1900 2000 growth

Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022

Platinum (USDoz) 12624 1300 1250 CH -32 35 20 -07 03 02

Palladium (USDoz) 2390 2400 2500 EMU -72 50 42 03 06 10

Copper (USDton) 8416 8300 7900 USA -35 57 35 12 20 21

WTI Crude Oil (USDbbl) 600 60 60 UK -100 53 75 09 14 18

Bloomberg Commodity index 1815 181 186 Australia -20 35 32 08 15 15

Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03

Spot rates are as of 1722021 forecast as on 1122021 China 23 71 52 25 11 17 These forecasts are no reliable indicators of future performance Source Bloomberg Credit SuisseIDC Last forecast update 10022021

These forecasts are no reliable indicators of future performance Source Bloomberg Credit Suisse

(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

Emerging markets Emerging markets are located in countries that possess one or more of the following characteristics a certain degree of political instability relatively unpredictable financial markets and economic growth patterns a financial market that is still at the development stage or a weak economy Emerging market investments usually result in higher risks as a result of political economic credit exchange rate market liquidity legal settlement market shareholder and creditor risks

Hedge funds Regardless of structure hedge funds are not limited to any particular investment discipline or trading strategy and seek to profit in all kinds of markets by using leverage derivative instruments and speculative investment strategies that may increase the risk of investment loss

Commodity investments Commodity transactions carry a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for many private investors The extent of loss due to market movements can be substantial or even result in a total loss

Real estate Investors in real estate are exposed to liquidity foreign currency and other risks including cyclical risk rental and local market risk as well as environmental risk and changes to the legal situation

Currency risks Investments in foreign currencies involve the additional risk that the foreign currency might lose value against the investorrsquos reference currency

Equity risk Equities are subject to market forces and hence fluctuations in value which are not entirely predictable

Market risk Financial markets rise and fall based on economic conditions inflationary pressures world news and business-specific reports While trends may be detected over time it can be difficult to predict the direction of the market and individual stocks This variability puts stock investments at risk of losing value

High Yield bond risk High Yield Bonds are typically rated below investment grade or are unrated and as such are often subject to a higher risk of issuer default

Perpetual Bond risk Perpetual Bonds have no maturity date and therefore the Interest pay-out depends on the viability of the issuer in the very long term

Subordinated Bond risk In case of liquidation of the issuer investors can only get back the principal after other senior creditors are paid

Risk of Bonds with variable deferral of interest terms Investors would face uncertainty over the amount and time of the interest payments to be received

Callable bond risk Investors face reinvestment risk when the issuer exercises its right to redeem the bond before it matures

Risk of Bonds with extendable maturity date Investors would not have a definite schedule of principal repayment

Convertible or exchangeable bond risk Investors are subject to both equity and bond investment risk

Cocos risk The bond may be written-off fully or partially or converted to common stock on the occurrence of a trigger event

Explanation of indices frequently used in reports

Index Comment

Australia SampPASX 200 SampPASX 200 is an Australian market-capitalization-weighted and float-adjusted stock index calculated by Standard and Poors

BC High Yield Corp USD The US Corporate High Yield Index measures USD-denominated non-investment grade fixed-rate and taxable corporate bonds The index is calculated by Barclays

BC High Yield Pan EUR The Euro Corporate Index tracks the fixed-rate investment-grade euro-denominated corporate bond market The index includes issues that meet specified maturity liquidity and quality requirements The index is calculated by Barclays

BC IG Corporate EUR The US Corporate Index tracks the fixed-rate investment-grade euro-denominated corporate bond market The index includes both US and non-US issues that meet specified maturity liquidity and quality requirements The index is calculated by Barclays

BC IG Corporate USD The IG Corporate Index tracks the fixed-rate investment-grade dollar-denominated corporate bond market The index includes both US and non-US issues that meet specified maturity liquidity and quality requirements The index is calculated by Barclays

Canada SampPTSX comp The SampPTSX composite index is the Canadian equivalent of the SampP 500 Index in the USA The index contains the largest stocks traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange

Consumer Confidence Indices Consumer Confidence Indices (CCIs) are based on surveys of consumers spending intentions and economic situations as well as their concerns and expectations for the immediate future

CS Hedge Fund Index The Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index is compiled by Credit Suisse Hedge Index LLC It is an asset-weighted hedge fund index and includes only funds as opposed to separate accounts The index reflects performance net of all hedge fund component performance fees and expenses

CS LSI ex govt CHF The Liquid Swiss Index ex govt CHF is a market-capitalized bond index representing the most liquid and tradable portion of the Swiss bond market excluding Swiss government bonds The index is calculated by Credit Suisse

DAX The German Stock Index stock represents 30 of the largest and most liquid German companies that trade on the Frankfurt Exchange

DXY A measure of the value of the US dollar relative to the majority of its most important trading partners The US Dollar Index is similar to other trade-weighted indices which also use the exchange rates from the same major currencies

Eurostoxx 50 Eurostoxx 50 is a market-capitalization-weighted stock index of 50 leading blue-chip companies in the Eurozone

FTSE EPRANAREIT Global Real Estate Index Series The FTSE EPRANAREIT Global Real Estate Index Series is designed to represent general trends in eligible real estate equities worldwide

Hedge Fund Barometer The Hedge Fund Barometer is a proprietary Credit Suisse scoring tool that measures market conditions for hedge fund strategies It comprises four components liquidity volatility systemic risks and business cycle

Japan Topix TOPIX also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index tracks all large Japanese companies listed in the stock exchanges first section The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks

JPM EM hard curr USD The Emerging Market Bond Index Plus tracks the total return of hard-currency sovereign bonds across the most liquid emerging markets The index encompasses US-denominated Brady bonds (dollar-denominated bonds issued by Latin American countries) loans and Eurobonds

JPM EM local curr hedg USD The JPMorgan Government Bond Index tracks local currency bonds issued by emerging market governments across the most accessible markets for international investors


MSCI AC AsiaPacific The MSCI All Country Asia Pacific Index captures large and mid cap representation across 5 developed market countries and 8 emerging markets countries in the Asia Pacific region With 1000 constituents the index covers approximately 85 of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country

MSCI AC World The MSCI All Country World Index captures large and mid cap representation across 23 developed markets and 23 emerging market countries With roughly 2480 constituents the index covers around 85 of the global investable equity opportunity set

MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets is a free-float-weighted Index designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets The index is developed and calculated by Morgan Stanley Capital International

MSCI EMU The MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 Developed Markets countries in the EMU With 237 constituents the index covers approximately 85 of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU

MSCI Europe The MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid cap representation across 15 developed markets countries in Europe With 442 constituents the index covers approximately 85 of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the European developed markets equity universe

MSCI UK The MSCI United Kingdom Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the UK market With 111 constituents the index covers approximately 85 of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the UK

MSCI World MSCI World is an index of global equity markets developed and calculated by Morgan Stanley Capital International Calculations are based on closing prices with dividends reinvested

OECD Composite Leading Indicators OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) are designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles with components that measure early stages of production respond to changes in economic activity and are sensitive to expectations of future activity

Purchasing Managers Indices Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) are economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private-sector companies The two principal producers of PMIs are Markit Group which conducts PMIs for over 30 countries worldwide and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) which conducts PMIs for the United States The indices include additional sub-indices for manufac-turing surveys such as new orders employment exports stocks of raw materials and finished goods prices of inputs and finished goods and services

Russell 1000 Growth Index The Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the US equity universe based on 1000 large-cap companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecast growth values

Russell 1000 Index The Russell 1000 Index is a stock market index that represents the highest-ranking 1000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index (encompassing the 3000 largest US-traded stocks with the underlying companies all incorporated in the USA) and representing about 90 of the total market capitalization of that index The Russell 1000 Index has a weighted average market capitalization of USD 81 billion and the median market capitalization is approximately USD 46 billion

Russell 1000 Value Index The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the US equity universe based on 1000 large-cap companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values

Switzerland SMI The Swiss Market Index is made up of 20 of the largest companies listed of the Swiss Performance Index universe It represents 85 of the free-float capitalization of the Swiss equity market As a price index the SMI is not adjusted for dividends

UK FTSE 100 FTSE 100 is a market-capitalization-weighted stock index that represents 100 of the most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock exchange The equities have an investibility weighting in the index calculation

US SampP 500 Standard and Poors 500 is a capitalization-weighted stock index representing all major industries in the USA which measures the performance of the domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value

Abbreviations frequently used in reports

Abb Description Abb Description

3612 MMA 3612 month moving average IMF International Monetary Fund

AI Alternative investments LatAm Latin America

APAC Asia Pacific Libor London interbank offered rate

bbl barrel m bd Million barrels per day

BI Bank Indonesia M1 A measure of the money supply that includes all physical money such as coins and currency as well as demand deposits checking accounts and negotiable order of withdrawal accounts

BoC Bank of Canada M2 A measure of money supply that includes cash and checking deposits (M1) as well as savings deposits money market mutual funds and other time deposits

BoE Bank of England M3 A measure of money supply that includes M2 as well as large time deposits institutional money market funds short-term re-purchase agreements and other larger liquid assets

BoJ Bank of Japan MampA Mergers and acquisitions

bp Basis points MAS Monetary Authority of Singapore

BRIC Brazil Russia China India MLP Master Limited Partnership

CAGR Compound annual growth rate MoM Month-on-month

CBOE Chicago Board Options Exchange MPC Monetary Policy Committee

CFO Cash from operations OAS Option-adjusted spread

CFROI Cash flow return on investment OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

DCF Discounted cash flow OIS Overnight indexed swap

DM Developed Market OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

DMs Developed Markets PB Price-to-book value

EBITDA Earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortization PE Price-earnings ratio

ECB European Central Bank PBoC Peoples Bank of China

EEMEA Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa PEG PE ratio divided by growth in EPS

EM Emerging Market PMI Purchasing Managers Index

EMEA Europe Middle East and Africa PPP Purchasing power parity


EMs Emerging Markets QE Quantitative easing

EMU European Monetary Union QoQ Quarter-on-quarter

EPS Earnings per share rhs right-hand side (for charts)

ETF Exchange traded funds RBA Reserve Bank of Australia

EV Enterprise value RBI Reserve Bank of India

FCF Free cash flow RBNZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Fed US Federal Reserve REIT Real estate investment trust

FFO Funds from operations ROE Return on equity

FOMC Federal Open Market Committee ROIC Return on invested capital

FX Foreign exchange RRR Reserve requirement ratio

G10 Group of Ten SAA Strategic asset allocation

G3 Group of Three SDR Special drawing rights

GDP Gross domestic product SNB Swiss National Bank

GPIF Government Pension Investment Fund TAA Tactical asset allocation

HC Hard currency TWI Trade-Weighted Index

HY High yield VIX Volatility Index

IBD Interest-bearing debt WTI West Texas Intermediate

IC Credit Suisse Investment Committee YoY Year-on-year

IG Investment grade YTD Year-to-date

ILB Inflation-linked bond Personal Consumption An indicator of the average increase in prices for all domestic Expenditure (PCE defla- personal consumption tor)

Currency codes frequently used in reports

Code Currency Code Currency

ARS Argentine peso KRW South Korean won

AUD Australian dollar MXN Mexican peso

BRL Brazilian real MYR Malaysian ringgit

CAD Canadian dollar NOK Norwegian krone

CHF Swiss franc NZD New Zealand dollar

CLP Chilean peso PEN Peruvian nuevo sol

CNY Chinese yuan PHP Philippine peso

COP Colombian peso PLN Polish złoty

CZK Czech koruna RUB Russian ruble

EUR Euro SEK Swedish kronakronor

GBP Pound sterling SGD Singapore dollar

HKD Hong Kong dollar THB Thai baht

HUF Hungarian forint TRY Turkish lira

IDR Indonesian rupiah TWD New Taiwan dollar

ILS Israeli new shekel USD United States dollar

INR Indian rupee ZAR South African rand

JPY Japanese yen

Important information on derivatives

Pricing Option premiums and prices mentioned are indicative only Option premiums and prices can be subject to very rapid changes The prices and premiums mentioned are as of the time indicated in the text and might have changed substantially in the meantime

Risks Derivatives are complex instruments and are intended for sale only to investors who are capable of understanding and assuming all the risks involved Investors must be aware that adding option positions to an existing portfolio may change the characteristics and behavior of that portfolio substantially A portfoliorsquos sensitivity to certain market moves can be heavily impacted by the leverage effect of options

Buying calls Investors who buy call options risk the loss of the entire premium paid if the underlying security trades below the strike price at expiration

Buying puts Investors who buy put options risk loss of the entire premium paid if the underlying security finishes above the strike price at expiration

Selling calls Investors who sell calls commit themselves to sell the underlying for the strike price even if the market price of the underlying is substantially higher Investors who sell covered calls (own the underlying security and sell a call) risk limiting their upside to the strike price plus the upfront premium received and may have their security called away if the security price exceeds the strike price of the short call Additionally the investor has full downside participation that is only partially offset by the premium received upfront If investors are forced to sell the underlying they might be subject to taxing Investors shorting naked calls (ie selling calls but without holding the underlying security) risk unlimited losses of security price less strike price

Selling puts Put sellers commit to buying the underlying security at the strike price in the event the security falls below the strike price The maximum loss is the full strike price less the premium received for selling the put

Buying call spreads Investors who buy call spreads (buy a call and sell a call with a higher strike) risk the loss of the entire premium paid if the underlying trades below the lower strike price at expiration The maximum gain from buying call spreads is the difference between the strike prices less the upfront premium paid


Selling naked call spreads Selling naked call spreads (sell a call and buy a farther out-of-the-money call with no underlying security position) Investors risk a maximum loss of the difference between the long call strike and the short call strike less the upfront premium taken in if the underlying security finishes above the long call strike at expiration The maximum gain is the upfront premium taken in if the security finishes below the short call strike at expiration

Buying put spreads Investors who buy put spreads (buy a put and sell a put with a lower strike price) also have a maximum loss of the upfront premium paid The maximum gain from buying put spreads is the difference between the strike prices less the upfront premium paid

Buying strangles Buying strangles (buy put and buy call) The maximum loss is the entire premium paid for both options if the underlying trades between the put strike and the call strike at expiration

Selling strangles or straddles Investors who are long a security and short a strangle or straddle risk capping their upside in the security to the strike price of the call that is sold plus the upfront premium received Additionally if the security trades below the strike price of the short put investors risk losing the difference between the strike price and the security price (less the value of the premium received) on the short put and will also experience losses in the security position if they owns shares The maximum potential loss is the full value of the strike price (less the value of the premium received) plus losses on the long security position Investors who are short naked strangles or straddles have unlimited potential loss since if the security trades above the call strike price investors risk losing the difference between the strike price and the security price (less the value of the premium received) on the short call In addition they are obligated to buy the security at the put strike price (less upfront premium received) if the security fin-ishes below the put strike price at expiration


Important information on mutual funds Fees and charges etc Different types of fees and commissions (subscription fee amount which must be retained in trust assets repurchase fee etc) are charged when investment trustsfunds are purchased and sold In addition apart from these fees and commissions trust and management fees and other fees (audit fee trust administrative charges carried interest etc) are charged and borne by you through your trust asset Fees and commissions borne by you will be a sum of these amounts Such fees and commissions vary depending on the investment trustfund and depending on the investment status and therefore we cannot provide specific amounts or calculation methods

For detailed information on fees and commissions etc of each re-spective investment trustfund please refer to the pre-contract documents (prospectus and other supplementary documents)

Important information on dividends bull Dividends are different to interest on deposits and are paid from the net asset value of investment trustsfunds Therefore when dividends are paid the base value (net asset value per unit) will decrease by an amount equivalent to the amount paid

bull Dividends may be paid exceeding the profit earned during the calculation period (trading profit including profits of dividends etc after expenses) In this case the base value (net asset value per unit) on the settlement date in this period will decrease compared to that on the settlement date in the previous period Also the level of dividends does not always reflect the rate of return for the investment trustfund during the calculation period

bull A part or all of dividends may be virtually equivalent to some repayment of the principal depending on the purchase price of the investment trustfund by an investor The same can be applied to a case that an increase in the base value (net asset value per unit) is smaller than a dividend amount due to the investment status after purchase of the investment trustfund

Please refer to the prospectus for details

Explanation of major risks (description pursuant to Ar-ticle 37 (Regulation on Advertising etc) of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act etc) The risks described below are a summary of some general risks of investment trustsfunds (risks which have an impact on net asset value) and do not cover all risks Please refer to the pre-trade documents (prospectus and other supplementary documents)

Price volatility risk Investment trustsfunds invest mainly in equities bonds and derivative products etc The value of the investment trustfund will go up or down due to increases or decreases in the prices of such investments Further the value of such investments will be impacted by political and economic factors the financial standing of an issuer market demand and supply interest rates and other factors

Foreign currency risk Investment trustsfunds which invest in equities or bonds etc denominated in foreign currencies entail a foreign currency risk and the base value (or net asset value) of investment trustsfunds may change depending on the currency exchange rate Even when you do not experience a loss of invest-ment principal when calculated in the base currency you may suffer a loss at conversion into Japanese yen due to fluctuations in exchange rates Fur-thermore investment trustsfunds which utilize currency trading among multiple currencies may incur costs due to such currency trading depending on the difference in short-term interest rates between the currencies and you may suffer a loss

Credit risk For investment trustsfunds which invest in equities or bonds etc the prices of these investments may increase and decrease due to changes in the business or financial standing of the issuer and other factors and you may suffer a loss

Risk pertaining to liquidity Where there is sudden high volume in a particular investment or when sudden changes in the external environment surrounding markets triggers a sudden downturn in a market or period of market turmoil etc investments may not be flexibly traded In such a case a decline in the price of the investment may impact the base value (or net asset value) of the investment trust result-ing in a loss Further the management company may decide to stop calcu-lation of net asset prices or suspend sell or redemption claims

In addition for certain types of investment trustfund there is a risk that particular investments may be designated to a separate account (or side pocket) due to a lack of liquidity When a separate account is utilized by in-vestment trustsfunds restrictions may apply as to when such investments can be liquidated through a sell or redemption claim and there may be a re-striction in the timing or form of redemption claim permissible In particular for Fund of Fund investments when an investment trustfund makes an in-vestment without time limit in another fund the investment trustfund may be influenced by investment results in the other funds

Risk associated with an outflow of money received from sales orders When there is a large volume of sale orders in a short period of time the investment trustfund may be forced to sell structured securities at a lower rate than the prevailing market price to refund monies to investors and as a result you may suffer a loss Also alternative investment trustsfunds gen-erally have a limitation in selling or cashing out the investment compared to traditional investment trustsfunds Many alternative investment trustsfunds only accept a sell or redemption order on a monthly or quarterly basis and therefore you may not be able to rapidly exit the investment in for example times of economic uncertainty

Redemption risk Investment trustsfunds may become subject to mandatory redemption due to a certain reason For details please refer to the pre-trade documents (prospectus and other supplementary documents) before subscription

Concentration risk Investment trustsfunds which invest in a certain investment product or similar investment product group may significantly decrease in value (net asset value) under severe market circumstances

Country risk When changes in political economic and social conditions in investment destination countries and regions cause a dislocation in financial and security markets security prices may significantly change Also investments in emerging markets involve unique risks including small market size and trade volume political and social uncertainties undeveloped market infrastructure such as a clearing system undeveloped information disclosure system and legal system by supervising authorities large fluctuations in exchange rates restrictions on currency remittance to foreign countries and other factors and therefore may have larger price fluctuations compared to investments in major developed markets

Important information on non-Japanese stocks Please refer to the issuer information when you purchase non-Japanese stocks

Disclaimer This material is published solely for information purposes and is intended for the recipientrsquos sole use Credit Suisse does not represent or warrant its ac-curacy or completeness The material is not directly or indirectly intended for any investment solicitation and does not constitute an invitation or offer to conclude a transaction contract for financial instruments etc Credit Suisse accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the information in this material It is recommended that you consult with the third party professional advisors as to legal or tax issues etc This material should not be reproduced or quoted without the prior express written consent of Credit Suisse The information and opinions expressed in this material were produced by Private Banking Division at Credit Suisse as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice Views expressed in respect of particular investment products in this material may be different from or inconsistent with the ob-


servations and views of other divisions besides Private Banking due to the differences in evaluation criteria This material is solely distributed in Japan by Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Limited Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Limited will not distribute or forward it outside Japan

You may incur a loss as a result of fluctuations in stock prices if you invest in stocks In relation to foreign stocks you may incur a loss in such stocks due to foreign exchange rate fluctuations etc The market value of bonds is affected by interest rate fluctuations or changes in the financial standing of any issuer etc as such you may incur a loss if you sell such bonds before they are redeemed In relation to foreign bonds you may incur a loss in such bonds due to foreign exchange rate fluctuations etc The net asset value of mutual funds can fall as well as rise due to price changes of underlying stocks bonds etc and foreign exchange rate fluctuations and this may cause you to incur a loss

Structured securities and derivatives are complex instruments typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved The market value of any structured security or transaction may be affected by changes in financial market conditions reference indices volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer

Furthermore there are structured securities on which you may incur a loss since the redemption amounts are linked with fluctuations in reference indices etc There are also derivatives on which potential losses may exceed the amount of the initial investment Commission rates for any transactions will be as per the rates agreed between Credit Suisse and you For transactions conducted on a principal to principal basis between Credit Suisse and you the purchase or sale price will be the total consideration Transactions con-

ducted on a principal to principal basis including over the counter derivatives transactions will be quoted as a purchasebid price or selloffer price and for which a difference or spread may exist Charges in relation to transactions will be agreed prior to dealing as per our requirements under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law

By purchasing financial instruments etc you may incur a loss or a loss in excess of the principal as a result of fluctuations in market prices or other financial indices etc Please read carefully the Pre-Contract Documentation provided for an explanation of associated risks and commissions etc of individual financial instruments etc prior to purchase Please contact your Relationship Manager if you have any questions

UNITED STATES NEITHER THIS REPORT NOR ANY COPY THEREOF MAY BE SENT TAKEN INTO OR DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES OR TO ANY US PERSON (WITHIN THE MEANING OF REGULATION S UNDER THE US SECURITIES ACT OF 1933 AS AMENDED)

Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Limited Financial Instruments Dealer Di-rector-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No 66 a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association Financial Futures Association of Japan Japan Investment Advisers Association Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association

Copyright copy 2021 Credit Suisse Group AG andor its affiliates All rights reserved

21C013A_IS_J


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Publisher Credit Suisse Private Banking amp Wealth Management Investment Solutions amp Products

Information about other Investment Solutions amp Products publications Internet httpsinvestmentcredit-suissecom

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Subscription (clients) Please contact your customer advisor to subscribe to this publication

Subscription (internal) For information on subscriptions please visit httpisrcsintranetsubscriptions


Editorial

Michael Strobaek Global Chief Investment Officer

Burkhard Varnholt Chief Investment Officer ndash Swiss Univer-sal Bank

Progress on the COVID-19 front has been slow and bumpy with many Western economies still stuck in more or less stringent lockdowns Indeed we expect the ongoing restric-tions to lead to a soft patch in economic activity this quarter However as vaccine rollouts accelerate and infection rates decline meaningfully while strong fiscal and monetary policy support remains in place the second half should see strong economic growth This should further support cyclical assets

In the most recent meeting of our Investment Committee we therefore decided to retain our preference for equities partic-ularly emerging market equities and commodities We expect these asset classes to benefit from the eventual strong eco-nomic pick-up and central banksrsquo continued commitment to keep financial conditions easy Yet even if central banks keep short-term interest rates unchanged increasing growth momentum suggests that yields on government bonds will continue to rise As credit spreads are now close to post-fi-nancial crisis lows rising yields on benchmark bonds will hurt returns in credit We therefore lower our return outlook for developed market investment grade bonds from attractive to neutral and we take profit on our successful overweight allo-cation to emerging market hard currency sovereign bonds In addition we still favor cyclical and especially commodity currencies and believe that the USD will weaken further

On a more long-term note it is tangible that investors are in-creasingly mindful of environmental social and governance (ESG) criteria In the pages ahead we present our ldquoESG in-tegratedrdquo framework designed to help investors gradually transition to portfolios that perform solidly on both traditional financial performance metrics and ESG metrics

Enjoy the read

In this issue

Japan investment strategy 3 Pandemic shock Catalyst for long-term change

Japan asset allocation 6 Review of our portfolio allocations

Supertrends 7 Supertrends Investment solutions

Economics 9 Positive growth outlook beyond winter soft patch

Global investment strategy 10 Retain preference for EM equities

Special topic 11 ESG Integrated

Special topic 13 Bullish hopes in Chinarsquos Year of the Ox

Fixed income 14 EM HC corporate bonds preferred

Equities 15 Remain constructive on global equities

Alternative investments 16 Still positive on commodities

Foreign exchange 17 Keep favoring cyclical currencies

Forecasts 18 At a glance

Editorial deadline 17 February 2021










































(16022021)



Liquidity 20 40 20 -30 -10 50

JPY 20 40 20 -30 -10 50

Fixed income 465 315 -150 -10 -10 325

JPY 25 35 10 -15 -05 40






445 00 520

-40 75

10 20

NA 20

00 500

Japan 155 180 25 -10 -10 190

World (ex Japan) 290 340 50 30 30 310

Switzerland 05 05 00 00 00 05

Eurozone 25 25 00 00 00 25

North America 125 150 25 00 00 150


Australia 05 05 00 00 00 05


LatAm 00 00 00 00 -05 05

APAC 45 50 05 20 20 30

EMEA 05 05 00 00 00 05



Hedge fund 00 25 25 NA 00 25





Supertrends








(17022021)


Supertrends


































Economics


























(15022021)


Special topic















(16022021)


Special topic












(15022021)


Fixed income









Equities











(12022021)












(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint















































(16022021)



Liquidity 20 40 20 -30 -10 50

JPY 20 40 20 -30 -10 50

Fixed income 465 315 -150 -10 -10 325

JPY 25 35 10 -15 -05 40






445 00 520

-40 75

10 20

NA 20

00 500

Japan 155 180 25 -10 -10 190

World (ex Japan) 290 340 50 30 30 310

Switzerland 05 05 00 00 00 05

Eurozone 25 25 00 00 00 25

North America 125 150 25 00 00 150


Australia 05 05 00 00 00 05


LatAm 00 00 00 00 -05 05

APAC 45 50 05 20 20 30

EMEA 05 05 00 00 00 05



Hedge fund 00 25 25 NA 00 25





Supertrends








(17022021)


Supertrends


































Economics


























(15022021)


Special topic















(16022021)


Special topic












(15022021)


Fixed income









Equities











(12022021)












(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint







Supertrends








(17022021)


Supertrends


































Economics


























(15022021)


Special topic















(16022021)


Special topic












(15022021)


Fixed income









Equities











(12022021)












(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint







Supertrends


































Economics


























(15022021)


Special topic















(16022021)


Special topic












(15022021)


Fixed income









Equities











(12022021)












(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint







Economics


























(15022021)


Special topic















(16022021)


Special topic












(15022021)


Fixed income









Equities











(12022021)












(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint


















(15022021)


Special topic















(16022021)


Special topic












(15022021)


Fixed income









Equities











(12022021)












(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint







Special topic















(16022021)


Special topic












(15022021)


Fixed income









Equities











(12022021)












(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint









(16022021)


Special topic












(15022021)


Fixed income









Equities











(12022021)












(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint







Special topic












(15022021)


Fixed income









Equities











(12022021)












(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint







Fixed income









Equities











(12022021)












(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint







Equities











(12022021)












(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint

















(12022021)


Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint







Foreign exchange










Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint







Forecasts










AUD 010 010 010 139 130 140




EURCHF 108 108 110

USDJPY 10594 10200 10000




US SampP 500 3933 234 21 3950 4150 EURSEK 1004 1010 1020


UK FTSE 100 6749 143 43 6700 7000 EURPLN 449 457 459



200 USDKRW 109898 106000 101000






Silver (USDoz) 273 27 30 in 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022






Japan -49 17 19 -02 01 03



(17022021)


Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint







Glossary

Risk warnings

















Index Comment

































































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint





















































































JPY Japanese yen











































21C013A_IS_J


Imprint








































21C013A_IS_J


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Imprint







beyond the pandemic - credit suisse

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