South Texas Summit of Democratic Leaders

January 15, 2011

Turnout patterns in Nueces County

Dr. Bob BezdekTexas A&M University-Corpus Christi

Nueces County Demographics/Politics1. Estimate is 57%-59% Latino, 4% black, and

37-39% Anglo/others.2. According to the Secretary of State’s count

in 2010, 49% of the voters have a Spanish surname.

3. Turnout indicates that 37%-39% of voters have a Spanish surname. 10-12 % pts drop.

4. Strongly Democratic until past decade. But four major countywide losses in 2010 and remaining two state legislators.

Nueces County Demographics/Politics4. Strongly Democratic until past

decade. But four major countywide losses in 2010 and remaining two state legislators.

5. Now, US Congressman, Co. Judge, Com. Court, three district judges, three state representatives are Republican.

2010Percent Turnout in Nueces County

(Based on the Vote in the U.S. Congressional Race)

32%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2010Percent Turnout in Nueces County Precincts by Percent Spanish Surname Registered Voters

(Based on the Votes in the U.S. Congressional Race)

44%45%

43%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

LT 10% SS 10-19% 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90% plus

More Anglo

2010Percent Turnout in Nueces County Precincts by Percent Spanish Surname Registered Voters

(Based on the Votes in the U.S. Congressional Race)

22%22%20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

LT 10% SS 10-19% 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90% plus

More Span Surname

2010Percent Turnout in Nueces County Precincts by Percent Spanish Surname Registered Voters

(Based on the Votes in the U.S. Congressional Race)

22%22%

25%

28%

20%

44%45%

43%

37%35%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

LT 10% SS 10-19% 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90% plus

More Anglo

More Span Surname

2010Percent Turnout in Nueces County Precincts by Percent Spanish Surname Registered Voters

(Based on the Vote in the U.S. Congressional Race)

44%

28%

25%

22% 22%20%

35%37%

40%

45%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X

More Span Surname More Anglo

2006Percent Turnout in Nueces County Precincts by Percent Spanish Surname Registered Voters

(Based on the Vote in the U.S. Congressional Race)

42%

28%27%

24% 24%22%

35%36%

38%

45%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X

More Span Surname More Anglo

2006 compared to 2010Percent Turnout in Nueces County Precincts by Percent Spanish Surname Registered Voters

(Based on the Vote in the U.S. Congressional Race)

28%

25%

22% 22%20%

44%

35%

37%

40%

45%

22%

24%24%

27%28%

36%

38%

42%

35%

45%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X

2010 2006

More Span Surname More Anglo

Percent Turnout by Percent SS for 126 Precincts in Nov., 2008, Election

Percent Turnout by Percent SS for 124 Precincts in Nov., 2008, Election (excluding 30 and 38)

SS % Turnout Precinct Location Prct #

69%* 20% Garcia Elem. 113

97% 27% Salazar Elem-Robstown 013

95% 25% St. Anthony's-Robstown 035

95% 22% Lotspeich-Robstown 104

94% 23% San Pedro-Robstown 105

76%* 17% Skinner Elem. 080

91% 17% Adult Learning Ctr 060

91% 20% Cunningham M.S. 074

76%* 23% Moody High 098

88% 14% Lozano Elem. 077

SS % Turnout Precinct Location Prct #

71% 30% Petronila School 022

49% 30% Fire Sta.-Airline/Horne 090

45% 35% Grant M.S. 116

45% 38% Browne M.S. 106

30% 42% Menger Elem. 058

37% 39% IWA 059

43% 41% King H.S. 109

46% 35% 2nd Baptist Church 088

41% 46% Schanen Estates Elem. 112

38% 32% Windsor Park Elem. 002

SS % SS % Turnout Precinct Location Prct #

 71% 27% 46% Magee (Calallen) 10749% 22% 46% River Hills Church-624 02345% 20% 56% Annaville Fire Dept. 02845% 7% 45% Padre Island-Christus Spohn 08130% 8% 47% Padre Island-Presb. Ch. 04037%43%46%41%38%

2008

White non-Hispanic and Hispanic Percent Turnout NationallySource: University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center (ICPSR)

74%

90%

65%

42%

84%

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than High School H.S. & Some College Associates Degree and Higher

White non-Hispanic Hispanic

Difference in the Number of Votes for Democrats v. Republicans in Nueces County for Countywide Races in the 2010 General Election

Republicans win FOUR NEW positions in our county (Calculated by Bezdek)

-10,684

5,909

-14,408

-9,751

-6,394

-3,150

-15,000

-12,000

-9,000

-6,000

-3,000

0

3,000

6,000

Gonzales Shamsie Banales Ortiz, Sr. Saldana Skurka

Democratic difference

Incumbent Neal won re-election

A Republican (Chesney) won this position for first time

A Republican (Hernandez) won this position for first time

A Republican (Farenthold) won this position for first time

A Republican (Williams) won this position for first time

Only Democrat to win in countywide contested race

Republican Jimenez lost

The bottom line is

if we could increase the turnout in Spanish surname precincts by fivepercentage points or more, thenDemocratic candidates could winmore positions throughout SouthTexas and even in the entire state.

What about the rapid Latino growth?

1. Dr. Steve Murdock and the other official state demographers have documented the rapid Latino growth.

2. Eventually, Latinos and Democrats will dominate even more in South Texas and the state.

3. However, how long will that take?

I have NO

solutions.