biases, brains, and decision making. lawyers are lousy decision-makers

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Biases, Brains, and Decision Making Slide 2 Lawyers are Lousy Decision-Makers Slide 3 Wrong 50% of the time -$75,000 Slide 4 Wrong 30% of the time -$1,400,000 Slide 5 Whats Going On? Slide 6 The human brain evolved to solve problems while highly mobile in extreme weather conditions and in a dangerous environment The modern human brain is unchanged from 150,000 years ago. Slide 7 Two Decision Making Systems System 1 System 2 Effortless Impulsive Intuitive Automatic Pre-conscious Effortful, painful Resists impulsivity Capable of reasoning Cautious Conscious Slide 8 17 x 24 408 Slide 9 Bananas Vomit Slide 10 The mere conjunction of two words creates a reality Most associative processing is unconscious Slide 11 Pregnant Man Slide 12 primes individualism reduces cooperation reluctance to be with others. Slide 13 Jumping off the cliff of conclusions Slide 14 Linda is thirty-one years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Slide 15 What is most likely? Linda is a bank teller Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement Slide 16 System 2 is effortful and for many people... Slide 17 At bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 widgets, how long would it take 100 machines to make 100 widgets? In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for the patch to cover half the lake? Slide 18 System 2 is easily derailed Slide 19 Loss of self control can be caused by: avoiding thought of white bears inhibiting the emotional response to a stirring film making a series of choices that involve conflict trying to impress others responding kindly to a partner's bad behavior Mental depletion can be caused by: deviating from a diet overspending on impulsive purchases reacting aggressively to provocation performing poorly in cognitive tasks and logical decision-making Slide 20 Slide 21 What is a cognitive bias? Slide 22 Its a decision-making short cut It is a System 1 process Its typically habitual It has emotional salience It operates outside of consciousness It is extremely useful It has a very dark side Slide 23 The following three numbers conform to some rule: 2, 4, 6 Your job is to figure out the rule. Slide 24 8, 10, 12 Slide 25 22, 24, 26 Slide 26 100, 102, 104 Slide 27 What is the rule? Slide 28 Increasing integers divisible by 2? Slide 29 Wrong. Slide 30 The correct answer was: Any three increasing integers. Slide 31 This is a classic example of the confirmation bias. 2, 4, 6 8, 10, 12 22, 24, 26 100, 102, 104 All we did is seek out confirmation for what we already believed. Slide 32 Is Sam friendly?Is Sam unfriendly? Slide 33 What is the difference between : We will win this lawsuit.We will defend this lawsuit. Slide 34 We will win this lawsuit. What does this statement mean if it were true? Do we choose to believe or unbelieve it? System 1 assumes the statement is true and looks for information to confirm iteasy and effortless. Unbelieving is an operation of System 2, which is effortful and painful. Slide 35 They are negotiating in bad faith Slide 36 Step 1 Label the emotion. Slide 37 You might say You are frustrated. You are angry. You feel disrespected. Slide 38 Step 2 Ask a motivational question. Slide 39 You might ask What were your expectations? What is the other side thinking?What can we do to elicit a different response? Slide 40 De-Escalate Engage System 2 Slide 41 Some Conclusions Slide 42


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