big data analytics for telecom operators final use cases 0712-2014_prof_m erdas

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TELCO Big Data Churn Analytics Identifying revenue growth opportunities and strengthening CEM customer retention policy BSS OSS COTS OTT CHURN DATA MODELING DATABASE CREATION ACCURATE CHURN PREDICTION USING MARKOV PROCESS CHAINS Prepared and presented by Prof. Dr. Dipl. Wirtsch. Ing. Mehmet Erdas MBA B.Sc. M.Sc. METU Ph.D. TU Braunschweig Germany mehmeterdas @outlook.com [email protected] Mobile: +49 (0)1789035440 +43(0)6509111090 +90(0)5374154413 1

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TELCO Big Data Churn Analytics Identifying revenue growth opportunities and strengthening CEM customer retention policyBSS OSS COTS OTT CHURN DATA MODELING DATABASE CREATION ACCURATE CHURN PREDICTION USING MARKOV PROCESS CHAINS

Prepared and presented by

Prof. Dr. Dipl. Wirtsch. Ing. Mehmet Erdas

MBA B.Sc. M.Sc. METU Ph.D. TU Braunschweig [email protected]

[email protected]

Mobile: +49 (0)1789035440

+43(0)6509111090

+90(0)5374154413

1

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1. Objectives2. Revenue growth and retention – our scope of work 20153. How to participate; Our reference architecture – guide

Identify Use Cases& Define the Business Use Cases, KPIs3.1 Upsell3.2 Cross Sell3.3 Retain Customers: Churn Minimization

4. LOCATION5. MOVEMENT6. NEXT BEST COURSE OF ACTION TIMING&SPEC.7. Movement Solution Scope8. Role Based HR Project Resourcing and Budgeting9. Use Case Identification SLA VIP etc..(by Presentation)

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Why Big Data Analytics CEM Churn Project?We will drive the development of appropriate technology and steer technology & Service Quality delivery models for new services and products based on deep profile customer inspection/experience i.e big data subscriber profile involving social networks and word of mouth after integrating structured and unstructured data using in-memory HANA and Hadoop MR

1. Mobile operator agrees to participate in use case focused workshops Mobile operator supplies customer data

samples Customer identity encrypted by operator

2. Provider builds and deploys operational prototype for one or more of the use case listed Operator can validate business value

3. Provider and operator agree solution, service and technology roadmap

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1. Customers benefit from the data they Generate: Permission Based Marketing My mobile operator treats me as a person, not a KPI. They will try to understand what is important/relevant for me

- they will genuinely offer me the best deals. This includes not just their own services, but they will find and

provide me access to the best deals out there that improve my life.

Perhaps an easier/more economical route to work. Perhaps access to a pay as you use car insurance scheme, or a life insurance scheme that takes into account the amount of sleep, exercise that I routinely partake of etc.

2. Operators generate more value for customers by new APPS: CONTENT_ META_MASTER _TRANSACTIONAL DATA All commercial business needs to generate profit. There are two philosophies on this:

Inside-out:We reduce costs, increase revenues, profit is the difference between the two.

Outside-inWe generate value for our customers, profit is the natural consequence of this.

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The challenge – right data!

1. Volume, Variety, Veracity, Velocity

χ It is neither possible nor beneficial to store all

data.

It is important to store the right data: First

Achieve the Highest Data Quality Measures

2. Value

To identify the right data, experts are

required.structured

un-structured

Data

Tsunami

Continuous Ingestion Continuous Queries /Analytics on

data in motion

$

$$$Right Data

= Profit

Big Data

= Cost

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Our Big Data solution roadmap proposal

2015

2016

2017 • .

2018

Data Workloads

Scope Def.n

Analytics

Platf. Spec.

HANA Hadoop Sys Int.

Automation

Processing

structured&unstructuredd

ata combined

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1. We are strategically committed to help our customers increase their profitability

2. In support of this we will present an overview of the work programs that we are under taking in 2014 that focuses on revenue growth and customer retention

3. Reference Primer Architecture We hope to solicit feedback from key TELCO customers and identify customers that are willing to participate in a joint work program next year - 2015

1. OBJECTIVES

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1. Tradition/Off-line use cases Up-sell based on usage analysis – i.e. sell the

customer more of what they already consume Cross-sell based on usage analysis – i.e. sell the

customer additional products and features Targeted retention of existing customers based

on churn analysis

2. Next generation/On-line uses cases Targeted marketing of customer segments based

on location through event calendar correlation Targeted marketing of customer segments based

on movement along a transportation corridor Enhanced customer care handling through next

best action suggestion

2. Revenue growth and retention- business focused use cases

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10

Next generation

technology

Traditional

technology

Event Factory Statistical and Mathematical

Functions

Raw Data ReaderSockets

Event Writer Sockets

Web based Graphical Context

Data production

Analytic

Database

Unpredictable Queries

High Responsivesness

Data analyticsCollection

Filtering

Enrichment

Event Correlation

Event Aggregation

Network Mgt - Stats

Device Inventory

Network Inventory

Data Presentation

Dashboard

Report

Production

TT, Workflow

CDR, Logs

NE

UE

Probes

IOT SensorsShort lived data

BSS

Imm

ed

iate

User Equipment Configuration Mgt

NW Policy Control Equipment

Notification API Implementatio

n

Event Driven

Rules Logic

Data

Automation

Service Subscription Databases

Predicate based

Group/Set Logic

Periodic

Fast Retrieval Option

Standard Retrieval Option

Data storage

Real-time

Streaming

Imm

ed

iate

Imm

ed

iate

On

-dem

and

On-demand

Periodic

Pe

riod

ic

Immediate

Consolidation,

Filtering and

Correlation

Immediate Information Element Event Repository

On-demand

Network Mgt - Event

BSS

3. Our reference architecture - guide

Long lived data

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The objective of this use case is to proactively identify customers who have exceeded one or more elements (e.g. mobile data) of their contracted tariff plan, and proactively offer them additional capacity for an incremental fee.

For example:

Customer complains they have unexpectedly incurred additional charges for mobile data usage. We verify through usage analysis that the charges are due to legitimate downloading from Google market. We can offer a more suitable tariff plan based on the actual usage profile.

3.1 Up-sell

The business case

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3.2 Cross-sell

The objective of this use case is to identify customers who are likely to purchase additional products.

For example:

Through usage analysis we identify those customers who are routinely downloading music from iTunes. We then offer them an alternative subscription to Spotify highlighting how much they would have saved based on recent purchases.

The business case

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3.3 Retain customers

The objective of this use case is to establish the propensity of our customers to churn through the identification and analytic modeling of churn indicators

For example:

We can produce a predictive model that encompasses both OSS and BSS data sources that identifies customers most likely to churn. This data can be used to inform retention policy within a mobile operator.

POSTPAY PREPAY

Top Up Frequency

Avg. Credit Value

Top Up Method

ServiceLength Of

ReasonDisconnect

Contract Stage

No. Of Upgrades

BSS (customer facing) – i.e. billing and CRM data

No. OB Calls [Delta

Discount

Avg. Inactive Time

Device

No. Of Products

Geo [Urban Rural]

Tariff BandX-Net Ratio

Initiation Credit Value

BandAge

Unpaid Balance freq.

Complaints Flag

Promo Flag

Type

Competitor

Loyalty

Sphere of influence

PREPAYPOSTPAY

Calls to customer service

The business case

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4. LocationThe objective of this use case is to correlate customer location, pre-provisioned events and a customers profile, for specific promotions and communications.

For example:Based on customer usage we establish Frank is a Man United football fan. Correlating this information with his cell location (e.g. while attending a football game) and known football fixture timetable can be used to route him towards an accessible but relevant offering - e.g. sale on Man United club merchandise.

1. Frank has regular access to Man United app

2. System provisioned with event calendar (e.g. Man United versus Barcelona @ Location, date, time)

3. Correlate with location actual data

User Preference Event Calendar Actual location

4. Timely and tailored promotion

Tailored promotion

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Source device location and movement data from available sources

Track device location and movement of

segmented users

Maps these segments to

commercially relevant areas

Publish the local analytic

data

Retailers act upon

opportunities

Source devicelocation andmovementdata fromavailablesources

Track device location and movement of

segmented users

Maps these segments to

commercially relevant areas

Publish the local analytic

data

Retailers actupon

opportunities

The objective of this use case is to correlate customer

movement with

customer profile for

specific promotions

and communicatio

ns.

The objective of this use case is to correlate customer

movementwith

customer profile for

specific promotions

and communicatio

ns.

5. Movement

Source device location and movement data from available sourcesTrack device location and movement of segmented usersMaps these segments to commercially relevant areasPublish the local analytic dataRetailers act upon opportunitiesSource device location and movement data from available sourcesTrack device location and movement of segmented usersMaps these segments to commercially relevant areasPublish the local analytic dataRetailers act upon opportunities

The objective of this use case is to correlate customer movement with customer profile for specific promotions and communications.

The objective of this use case is to correlate customer movement with customer profile for specific promotions and communications.

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The objective of this use case is to enhance customer care handling through next best action suggestion.

For example:

Mark rings first line customer care. He explains he is dissatisfied with his quality of his mobile data service. Our system has validated that the download speed is below the norm for Mark. It has correlated this with the application of a new software configuration on his handset. Updating the configuration to the latest available version resolves the issue for Mark.

6.Next best action

Validate problem

Communicate next best

action

Improved First Call Resolve

ratio

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Mobile operator agrees to participate in use case focused workshopsMobile operator supplies customer data samplesCustomer identity encrypted by operator

Provider builds and deploys operational prototype for one or more of the use case listedOperator can validate business value

Provider and operator agree solution, service and technology roadmap

7. Movement> Solution Scope

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Role Based Project Resourcing &Budgeting

Names Focus Profile/Role Onboard

NN Use Case Design(Campaign/Churn) 20 years experience. SQM/CEM product management Now

AB Use Case Design(Campaign/Churn) 20 years experience. OSS/SQM/CEM product architecture and design. Now

CD Use Case Design(Campaign/Churn) 20 years experience. Operator marketing operations management. June

EF Use Case Design(Campaign/Churn) 10 years experience. Marketing campaign design. Now

GH Use Case Design 20 years experience. Telcordia SQM/CEM market management and solution design. June

PK Use Case Design(Customer Care) 10 years experience. Huawei Core Network R&D Now

LM Use Case Design(Customer Care) 15 years experience. NSN SQM/CEM solution architect July

NO Analytics Model Design(Churn/ Campaign) 20 years experience. Data mining, familiar with Chun/Campaign Now

PQ Analytics Model Design(Churn/ Campaign) 20 years experience. Data mining, familiar with Chun/Campaign July

HF Service Modelling 10 years experience Huawei Core network R&D and SmartCare product management Now

PQ Service Modelling 10 years experience. Huawei Core network R&D and SmartCare Service modeling Now

FM Service Modelling/Transformation 20 years experience. IBM COTS service modeling design June

XY Service Modelling/Transformation 15 years experience. IBM COTS service modeling design July

UV reference architect 20 years experience. OSS/SQM/CEM product architecture and design. Now

Dr. Mehmet In-memory architect 30+ years experience of Data ware housing and SAP HANA in-memory database professor Now

NE systems architect 10 years experience. Business intelligence expert Now

NM streaming architect 10 years experience. Ericsson OSS/SQM/CEM research and application architecture June

NN DWH + ETL architect 15 years experience. Netezza Big Data system architect July

NN data mining architect

15 years experience. Online analytics and quantitative modeling of high-performance low-latency

systems. June

Jingjin portfolio architect 14 years experience. Huawei R&D. Now

Use case Blue

Analytics Model Yellow

Service Model Red

BigData Platform Blue

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UC-1 Customer complaint handling

• Scenario 1– Clearly demarcate Server (Video) issues beyond operator control

• Scenario 2– Convert contact into additional revenue

• Scenario 3– Clearly demarcate UE (APP) issues beyond operator control

• Scenario X1– Improve TT handling efficiency (automatically insert technical

detail)

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Intermittent problems with content server e.g.

Youtube in this case

Complaint Handling #1– Prevent ticket creation with rapid customer insights

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Complaint Handling #2– Upsell premium QoS package

User doesn’t have a profile suitable for viewing HD video’s.

Upsell a premium QoSpackage to provide

better QoS

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Complaint Handling #3 – Customer Overcharged ?

Looking at the detail we see a number of

downloads from Google Market are the cause of

the data usage.

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Complaint Handling #4 – Populate TT with accurate customer data for problem resolution

Auto populate ticket to ensure accurate data for

engineer to resolve issue.

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Complaint Handling #4 – Demarcate the problem

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UC-2 Monitoring Top-up – Individual Retailer

Verifying that this retailer has been

experiencing a number of delays with their top

up service

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UC-2 Monitoring Top-up – Individual Retailer

Drilling down identifies the specific transactions

that have been impacted

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UC-2 Monitoring Top-up – Individual Retailer

Drilling down on the specific transaction

identifies delays on the billing interface. Doing

this for multiple transactions shows this is a common problem with

all of the delays

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UC-2 Monitoring Top-up – Are there other retailers impacted by this same issue?

Drilling down provides visibility to which

customers are impacted delay

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UC-2 Monitoring Top-up – Analysis for all retailers

Multiple retailers are impacted by the same

issue. With 4 retailers in Xian (incl Retailer0561)

impacted.

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UC-2 Monitoring Top-up – Analysis for all retailers

Individual Retailer

Drilling into the impacted customers shows the different retailers in this area

impacted.

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UC-3: Enterprise SLA Monitoring Use Case

Customer

Provider

A BANK

Business

Agreement

SLA

SLS

KPI KPI

KQI

SMS Origination Success RateBanking Transaction

E-commerce applications require a high quality and reliable real-time mobile services that perform up to an operators SLA commitments.

C bank has implemented an online payment service for their customers. To guarantee individual account security it is required to enter a verification code (sent via an SMS by C bank) before confirming the online payment. It is necessary for the user to input this code within 5 seconds or the payment transactions will timeout. C bank wants the operator to guarantee a SLA (e.g. delay, success rate) for all SMS originating from the C bank’s set of pre-defined number. This is especially critical during holidays and special events

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UC-3 Enterprise SLA Monitoring

SMS Success Rate and Delay have gone into a

warning state. Looking at the recent history shows that the declining over a

period of time

Lets drill into the most recent period to

understand the root cause behind the decline

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UC-3 Enterprise SLA Monitoring – Understanding SLA Breaches

Failure Analysis shows large numbers of failures due to

capacity problems specifically - ‘Submit Message Queue Full’ and ‘Bandwidth Limit

Exceeded’

Drill down on the specific regions having the lower

success rate

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Drill down on the specific regions

having the increased delays

Drill down into the detailed transactions

shows the specific transactions timing out

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UC-4 Enabling Network Operations to evaluate impact of Marketing Promotions

Select the criteria to identify target

customers

Target customer segments based on the

selection criteia

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UC-4 Enabling Network Operations to evaluate impact of Marketing Promotions

Adjustable parameters –which will be

directly reflected in the

maps/graphs on the bottom of the screen, to determine the impact on the network.

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UC-5 PSPU Service Quality Improvement

Page Response and Page Browsing Success

Rate have breached their thresholds

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UC-5 PSPU Service Quality Improvement

Server problems constitute the majority

of the failures. Drill down the specific sessions impacted

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UC-5 PSPU Service Quality Improvement

Analyzing the failures by web site and per

user identifies a specific web site i.e.

CNPC

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UC-6 Real Time VIP Care

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UC-6 Real Time VIP Care

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UC-6 Real Time VIP Care

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Thank you.Prof. Dr. Dipl. Wirtsch. Ing. Mehmet Erdas

MBA B.Sc. M.Sc. METU Ph.D. TU Braunschweig Germany

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

Mobile: +49 (0)1789035440

+43(0)6509111090

+90(0)537415441345