big picture for autonomy research in dod · – assure completeness / gap analysis (don’t leave...

© 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.For internal MITRE use

Jun 9, 2015

Big Picture for Autonomy Research in DoD

Dr. Robert Grabowski

Soft and Secure Systems and Software Symposium

Approved for Public Release 15-1707

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© 2015 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

CGN-35 9 Years US Navy nuclear power program PhD CMU, small heterogeneous teams 15 years of robotics research 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge finalist Novel perception Test and evaluation, metrics

Robotic Experience

Millibots

Meteor

Centaurs

Physics

USS Truxtun

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Agenda

Tenets of autonomy research Autonomy survey evolution Definitions and spaces Survey of autonomy in DoD Autonomy in motion Acceptance gap

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Tenets of Autonomy Research Focus on uniqueness

– Where autonomy is unique and how this uniqueness impacts the tester– Why current approaches insufficient, what new approaches are needed

Recognize perspectives– Understand how each looks at autonomy different, what drives them– Develop an appropriate language to communicate across perspectives– Pivot from development of autonomy to test of autonomy

Drive with models– Provide relationships between perspectives– Assure completeness / gap analysis (don’t leave holes)– Mechanism for decomposition (towards a plan)

Make it actionable– Use insights to drive investment, new technologies, methodologies– Build in capability to measure progress


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H i s t o r y, d e f i n i t i o n s a n d f i g h t s

Autonomy

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Evolution of thinking Early investigation focused on

platforms, mostly provided portfolio and catalog 2010

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Evolution of thinking Autonomy becomes S&T priority

2010 SecDefRDE Focus

2010

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First systematic focus on autonomy Introduction of MUM-T Introduction of issue of trust


2011 DoDIntegrated Roadmap

2010

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Shift from platforms to decisions Shift towards science of autonomy 2010 SecDef

RDE Focus2011 DoD

Integrated Roadmap

2012DSB Role Autonomy

2010

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Shift from platforms to decisions Shift towards science of autonomy

Emphasis on calibrated trust Awareness of testing and V&V



2013: DoDAutonomous Research Initiative


2010

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Emphasis and constraints on autonomous weaponization



2013: SecDefAutonomous Weaponization



2010

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Focus on autonomy as decision Establishment of COI




2014: ASDREReliance 21



2010

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Focus on autonomy as decision Establishment of COI

Emphasis on HRI, Teams Emphasis on T&E/V&V Technology Offset




2014: ASDREReliance 21



2010

2015: Autonomy Focus

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Autonomy Definitions Many definitions, many opinions, many arguments All good but somehow all equally unsatisfying

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Autonomy Definitions Many definitions, many opinions, many arguments All good but somehow all equally unsatisfying Webster Dictionary (2015)

– “the state of existing or acting separately from others” AFRL Autonomy Science and Technology Strategy (2014)

– “systems which have a set of intelligence-based capabilities that allow it to respond to situations that were not pre-programmed or anticipated in the design. Autonomous systems have a degree of self-government and self-directed behavior”

Towards Safety Assurance of Trusted Autonomy (2012)– “the ability to reason and make decisions to reach given goals based on a systems

current knowledge and its perception of the variable environment in which it evolves” DoD Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap (2011)

– “autonomous systems develop, for themselves, the laws and strategies by which they choose their behavior.”

Army GO Workshop (2009)– “a system which, by its appearance or movements,

conveys a sense that it has intent or agency of its own ” NIST Autonomy Levels for Unmanned Systems Framework (2004)

– “the condition or quality of being self-governing”

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Autonomy Definitions Many definitions, many opinions, many arguments All good but somehow all equally unsatisfying Webster Dictionary (2015)

– “the state of existing or acting separately from others” AFRL Autonomy Science and Technology Strategy (2014)

– “systems which have a set of intelligence-based capabilities that allow it to respond to situations that were not pre-programmed or anticipated in the design. Autonomous systems have a degree of self-government and self-directed behavior”







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Autonomy Definitions Many definitions, many opinions, many arguments All good but somehow all equally unsatisfying

“I know it when I see it”Justice Potter Stewart 1964

Webster Dictionary (2015)– “the state of existing or acting separately from others”

AFRL Autonomy Science and Technology Strategy (2014)– “systems which have a set of intelligence-based capabilities that allow it to respond to

situations that were not pre-programmed or anticipated in the design. Autonomous systems have a degree of self-government and self-directed behavior”







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Autonomy Levels Parallel approach is to divide

autonomy into levels Shift from singularity to

spectrum to spaces

Army (Think, Look, Move, Talk, Work)

NASA (Function Specific Level of Autonomy)

SAE Levels of Driving Autonomy

Bloom Levels of Autonomy

DoD 4 levels of Autonomy (USIR)

Nice for categorization but usefulness still in question

NIST Autonomy Space

Flavors of Autonomy

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Autonomy Perspectives Autonomy assessment

– Listen to what agencies are saying– Look at what they think autonomy will

enable– No single group captures autonomy– Collectively they build a full picture– 30+ DoD, Service roadmaps, strategic

plans and investment strategies referencing autonomy

Autonomy Survey Paper

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Review of 100+ documents– DoD, Agencies Federal and Civil,

International and Academic– 30+ critical documents identified

High Level

2015 OTI Technical Assessment Autonomy 2015 ATEVV Investment Strategy 2015 Unmanned Autonomous Systems Test Strategy 2015 Naval S&T Strategy 2014 AFOSR Technical Strategic Plan 2013 DoD Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap 2012 DSB The Role of Autonomy in DoD Systems 2012 DoD Autonomy in Weapon Systems Directive 2012 DoD Autonomy Research Pilot Initiative 2011 RSJPO Unmanned Ground Systems Roadmap 2011 DoD Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap 2011 DoD Science and Technology Priorities for Fiscal Years

2013-17 Planning 2010 NASA, Robotics, Tele-Robotics and Autonomous

Systems Roadmap 2010 Army Unmanned Air Systems Roadmap 2010 Air Force Technology Horizons 2009 DARPA Strategic Plan 2009 ARCIC Robotics Strategic White Paper 2009 Air Force Unmanned Aircraft Systems Flight Plan 2009 DoD Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap 2007 Navy Unmanned Surface Vehicle Master Plan

…

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Dual perspective Anticipation

– A closer look at what stakeholders are anticipating from autonomy

– Look towards new capabilities enabled by advances in technology and potentially new applications and approaches

– Implicitly speaks to new challenges as well

Trepidation– The opposite perspective capturing the concerns

with adoption of unstructured autonomy– Tends to be on concerns of consequences,

vulnerabilities and liabilities

Anticipation

Trepidation

Both sides essential in true understanding of autonomy

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Anticipations Reduction of Manpower - realizing the promise of unmanned systems to reduce

manpower and cost– Mitigation of unmanned – reduce manpower, cost, logistics of existing platforms– Reduction of operators – further reduction of manning and specially qualified operators to

control more than one platform or asset– Information filtering – reduction of sheer data volume collected by unmanned systems.

Systems that make decisions on what not to show

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Tactical Advantage - added advantages on the battlefield– Faster reaction time – local decisions faster than human cycle– Deeper penetration – operation in inaccessible or denied environments– Extended operation – can operate longer than human cycles– Agility and adaptation – ability to adjust to changing environment, changing mission

goals, ability to use in secondary missions

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Tactical Advantage - added advantages on the battlefield– Faster reaction time – local decisions faster than human cycle– Deeper penetration – operation in inaccessible or denied environments– Extended operation – can operate longer than human cycles– Agility and adaptation – ability to adjust to changing environment, changing mission

goals, ability to use in secondary missions

Trusted Companion - System capable of providing real-time, tactical and proximate support to warfighters– Faithful servant – utilization of competent mules, closer proximity to humans, operations

not in contact with adversary– Loyal wingman – high tempo coordination and interaction, operations in contact with

adversary

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Trepidations Unmanaged Complexity - Complexity exceeds ability to design, monitor, and test

– Coupling of sub-systems – inability to understand interactions between systems, complexity of test, difficulty in prediction

– Unstructured adaptation – implications of systems that can learn new rules– Brittleness – superior behavior in ideal conditions, potentially catastrophic failure (or

behavior outside nominal

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Unintended Consequences – difficulty in understanding true risks to mission or force structure.– Ambiguity of command – Complications on command and command structure– Safety and liability – political and legal fallout from accident or damage– Ethics of weaponization – implications on rules of engagement, long term complications

(consider current issue with drones)– Complacency – difficulty in keeping human awareness at correct level of attention

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Unintended Consequences – difficulty in understanding true risks to mission or force structure.– Ambiguity of command – Complications on command and command structure– Safety and liability – political and legal fallout from accident or damage– Ethics of weaponization – implications on rules of engagement, long term complications

(consider current issue with drones)– Complacency – difficulty in keeping human awareness at correct level of attention

Smart Adversary – impact from contact with an interactive and aware opponent– Corruption – impacts of compromised systems including ability to detect– Loss of control – adversary gaining control of asset or information– The aware adversary – how engagement change when adversary aware they are

interacting with artificial system– Asymmetry of development – concern of advancements of technology from an adversary

without the political, legal or self-imposed constraints we may be under

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DSB Recommendations “The DoD should abandon the debate over

definitions [and] of levels of autonomy”– Focus on how autonomy impacts things not

what it means

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what it means “The Military Services should structure

autonomous systems acquisition programs to separate the autonomy software from the vehicle platform.”– Autonomy is about decisions not platforms

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what it means “The Military Services should structure

autonomous systems acquisition programs to separate the autonomy software from the vehicle platform.”– Autonomy is about decisions not platforms

“AT&L should create developmental and operational test and evaluation techniques that focus on the unique challenges of autonomy”– Focus on unique properties of autonomy– Focus on testing and role in adoption


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A c c e p t a n c e G a p

Autonomy in Motion

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Autonomy not sole purview of unmanned

Autonomy Spectrum

Autonomy Spectrum

scripted self awaresemantic adaptiveresponsive

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Autonomy at rest– Cognitive assistants (siri)– Expert systems (high frequency trading)– Expert systems (watson)– C4I (next gen air traffic control)– C4I (Distributed battle management, Rspace …)

Autonomy at RestAutonomy at Rest

High Frequency Trading Next Gen ATC

IBM WatsonSiri Distributed Battle Mgt

scripted self aware

“degree of autonomy”

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For any system, have some notional concept of acceptance– Based on nature of autonomous system and environment it is in

Autonomy AcceptanceAutonomy at Rest

IBM Watson

scripted self aware

Acceptance Threshold

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For any system, have some notional concept of acceptance– Based on nature of autonomous system and environment it is in

Adjustments– Can constrain that autonomy– Can mitigate with greater oversight– Can develop new concepts for introspection and acceptance


IBM Watson

scripted self aware

Constrain application

Increase oversight, introspection

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Result is a system that can be released in the wild and vetted through employment

Evolutionary approach to acceptance– Adjust autonomy to match acceptance criterion– Develop confidence over time– Understand nature of application of autonomy


IBM Watson

scripted self awareAcceptance Threshold

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Autonomy in Motion

Unmanned autonomous systems (UAS) present a unique challenge to the autonomy world

Autonomy may require a minimum threshold just to operate

Acceptance/Trust Gap

ASW warfareCargo LiftRobot Convoy Civilian Cargo

Fire fighting WingmanLong duration ISR

Squad Support

Driverless Taxi

scripted self aware

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=ROOHJ0fbs9c2yM&tbnid=-fuc5vNagTwWeM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.darpa.mil/Our_Work/TTO/Programs/Anti-Submarine_Warfare_(ASW)_Continuous_Trail_Unmanned_Vessel_(ACTUV).aspx&ei=A1aHU7TLI-LLsQTo5YCoBA&bvm=bv.68114441,d.aWw&psig=AFQjCNHxV5ycXC9bgjeVwvU9UsG-WPIbJQ&ust=1401464705054427


http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=mVV-kcsLnDqx9M&tbnid=1bvno8yxf12A9M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2012/01/09/these-next-gen-military-drone-helicopters-will-be-controlled-by-smartphones/&ei=QFaHU5_oE9HMsQTgl4DwAg&bvm=bv.68114441,d.aWw&psig=AFQjCNFDFRvB1rQBXUoSl4O6ojF-MPKNPg&ust=1401464762220969


http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=rOwIHJvTlfKr0M&tbnid=lRZaqPkysr-FMM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.army.mil/article/125468/Automotive_engineers_explore_future_mobility__protection/&ei=6laHU_OqM-bRsQSqlYDwDQ&bvm=bv.68114441,d.aWw&psig=AFQjCNF7eH48vqLCSRIEEQMAU8E0sRo7jw&ust=1401464891819889


http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=If_CoXpfRZ7dnM&tbnid=v3Bxr1HBPUCjXM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/cv-ucavs-the-return-of-ucas-03557/&ei=Q1eHU8ToBpPOsAS0soDYDQ&bvm=bv.68114441,d.aWw&psig=AFQjCNG_FGNwGjG0fdxe58mJLOtnHxU66A&ust=1401465014907688


http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=p4ZqH5oDN4JhGM&tbnid=rEddOCEyOaLo7M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.ubergizmo.com/2010/09/guss-the-robot-mule-helps-marines-haul-loads/&ei=vFuHU666A8rlsASo5oGwDA&bvm=bv.68114441,d.aWw&psig=AFQjCNF5Jkdtl2jyTMg7YhMq0JswUPfT1w&ust=1401466165342801


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Autonomy in Motion

Some applications may be mitigated with oversight, co-human control Concept breaks when you remove the man (cant have a ½ autonomous system)


ASW warfareCargo Lift Civilian Cargo

Fire fighting WingmanLong duration ISR

scripted self aware

Robot ConvoySquad Support

Driverless Taxi











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Consider Autonomous air lift (like AACUS)– Autonomous takeoff and landing– Landing zone assessment and selection– Obstacle avoidance and negotiations (powerlines, trees)– Payload negotiation and management– Environmental adjustment (weather, wind, updraft)– Adversarial interaction

Autonomy in Motion


Cargo Lift




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Autonomy in Motion


Can restrict some of the operations but ultimately gap still remains

Cargo Lift




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Autonomy in Motion

Result is an acceptance/trust gap that restricts release and operations Restricted release retards co-evolution Not just about making a more competent system, need to overcome trust gap


Cargo Lift


GAP



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Two main groups focusing on test technologies– ATEVV – under DoD ASDR&E – UAST – under DoD TRMC


Cargo Lift

Automated requirement (codable language)Traceable evidence (pedigree)Progressive sequential M&S, T&E (prediction)Real time monitoring (watchdog oversight)Just-in-time prediction (behaviors, actions)Reusable assurance (actuaries)

Targeted testing (salience)Smart test range (adaptive to system)HMI efficacy (distributed SA)Decision transparency (rules and impact)

Unmanned Autonomous Systems Test

ATEVV Investment Strategy

ATEVV

UAST

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