Bill Kuo

DTC Management Board Meeting

17th March 2011

AgendaChange of MB membershipDTC AOP 2011 and BudgetOptions to accommodate potential

shortfallsLooking ahead – AOP 2012 & beyondDTC MB/SAB Meeting in the fall of 2011

Change of MB membershipSteve Koch will become the next Director of

NSSL, and has stepped down from his position as the DTC Deputy Director for OAR and a member of MB, effective 16th March 2011.

Sandy MacDonald appointed Zoltan Toth as the Acting DTC Deputy Director and a member of MB, replacing Steve, until a new GSD Director is identified.

DTC AOP 2011Draft Budget and Options

Introduction DTC prepared a DRAFT AOP 2011 and budget in January 2011 DTC AOP 2011 and budget were reviewed by DTC Management

Board (MB) on 11-12 Jan 2011 DTC MB recommended:

Be prepared for a 5% reduction in the OAR DTC fundingDo not spread the cuts across all tasksProtect high-priority areas:

Tasks that are very close to demonstrating successful R2O (e.g., data assimilation and hurricane tasks)

Enhance testing and evaluation activities recommended by the DTC Science Advisory Board (SAB).

Don Berchoff asked DTC to prepare a strategy for additional 10% cut in OAR funding for AOP 2011

AFWA funding $275K less then requested – tasks under AFWA funding reduced to match actual funding

Anticipate FY2012 budget will be even worse than 2011

AOP 2011 Budget Planning Assumptions

Source Funding (in K) Status

OAR 2,850 Assumed 5% reduction

AFWA 564 Confirmed (original request $839K)

NCAR 250 Confirmed

USWRP 300 Tentative (possible 10% cut)

GSD 250 Tentative + additional SE support

NSF 100 Submit proposal for DTC Visitor Program

HFIP 455 Pending HFIP allocation decision

Allocated NCAR

carryover61 Confirmed

Allocated GSD

carryover61 Confirmed

Total 4,891

Changes in TasksGeneralized names for task areas to reflect focus area

rather than specific software packagesWRF Mesoscale ModelingHWRF HurricaneGSI Data assimilation MET VerificationDET Ensembles

Incorporated work related to NEMS into appropriate task areas (Mesoscale Modeling and Ensembles)

Incorporated work related to NOAA testbed collaborations (HMT and HWT) into appropriate task areas (Mesoscale Modeling, Verification and Ensembles) to ensure work undertaken through these collaborations contribute directly to the core DTC missions (a strong recommendation from the SAB)

AOP 2011 Tasks

Testbed collaborations: HWT & HMT

1. DTC activities focused on five key areas: Mesoscale Modeling, Hurricanes, Data Assimilation, Ensembles and Verification.

2. HWT & HMT are cross-DTC special projects that contribute to identified focus areas.

Proposed AOP 2011 Budget Allocations (in K)

Task OAR* AFWA NCAR GSD NSFUSWR

PHFIP**

NCAR Carry-over

GSD Carry-over

Total

Director’s Office

$390 - $150 $100 - - - - - $640

Visitor Program

$100 - - - $100 - - - - $200

Mesoscale

Modeling$826 $87 $50 - - $61 - - - $1,024

Hurricanes

$675 - - $100 - - $355 $61 - $1,191

Data Assimilat

ion$177 $231 - $50 - - - - - $458

Verification

$66 $246 $25 - - $188 $100 - - $625

Ensembles

$616 - $25 - - $51 - - $61 $753

Total $2,850 $564 $250 $250 $100 $300 $455 $61 $61 $4,891**Includes $100 K from HFIP for diagnostic toolkit (which is an additional task requested by HFIP in FY 2011)

Proposed AOP 2011 FTE Allocations

Task Area

Scientists/

Managers

Software

Engineers

Admin Assistan

ts

Students Total

Director’s Office 1.70 0.10 0.50 - 2.30

Mesoscale

Modeling3.19 2.18 - 0.78 6.15

Hurricanes 3.47 2.07 - - 5.54

Data Assimilati

on1.90 0.50 - - 2.40

Verification 1.00 2.30 - 0.15 3.45

Ensembles 2.00 1.11 - 0.25 3.36

Total 13.26 8.26 0.50 1.18 23.20

Funding allocation breakdown between NCAR and GSD (in K)

Task NCAR/JNT ESRL/GSD Total

Director’s Office

$526 $114 $640

Visitor Program $200 - $200

Mesoscale Modeling

$978 $46 $1,024

Hurricanes $492 $699 $1,191

Data Assimilation

$358 $100 $458

Verification $591 $34 $625

Ensembles $317 $436 $753

Total $3,464 $1,429 $4,891

Director’s Office: Proposed activitiesInternal Communication

Implement tools to assist with task and staff coordinationProvide a framework for cross-coordination between over-

lapping activities of major task areasCoordinate strategic planning activities

External CommunicationContinue making improvements to DTC websiteHost MB, EC & SAB meetings and keep open channels of

communicationDTC Visitor Program

Host visitors for 5 funded projectsPrepare a new AO & select next round of visitor projects

Provide support for upcoming workshops and tutorials

Mesoscale Modeling: Community SupportProposed Activities

Maintain/Enhance WRF regression testing*Continue on-going efforts in community support**Finish preparations of community-UPP software package for

distribution*Extensively test, write documentationProvide community support upon release

Anticipated major accomplishmentsWRF release (v3.3 April 2011)**Community-UPP version 1.0 release (April 2011)*Bi-annual WRF Tutorials (July 2011, January 2012)**Annual WRF Users Workshop (June 2011)*

-in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*

Mesoscale Model: Testing and EvaluationProposed Activities

Continue expansion of RC testing and evaluationStrengthen the foundation of DTC expertise with the NEMS

softwareCo-host with NCEP a physics workshop for mesoscale modelingUse HMT-West research datasets to evaluate precipitation

processes in operational and research modelsPrepare publications on DTC methodology and results from select

test activitiesAnticipated major accomplishments

New RC designations or retests, as appropriateFunctionally equivalent operational environment for WRF-based

systems established at the DTC to assess new NWP methodsWhite paper outlining short-term and longer-term approaches for

making significant progress toward improving physics parameterizations

Manuscript(s) submitted to appropriate peer-reviewed journal

Hurricanes: Proposed ActivitiesContinue HWRF community support.Continue HWRF code management, keeping the evolving

community and EMC versions of HWRF connected.Upgrade DTC testing suite by adding HYCOM, UPP and

ability to run high-resolution. Perform extensive testing of HWRF. Actual tests TBD -

could include changes in resolution and/or alternate physics.

Diagnostic activities: Evaluate HWRF to understand weaknesses and sources of

error. Begin assembling a diagnostic toolbox for DTC and the

community*

*Pending HFIP funding.

Hurricanes: Anticipated Major AccomplishmentsDTC HWRF Test Plan, in collaboration with EMC and

HFIP, describing plans for tests to be conducted by DTC in 2011 and a protocol for how future tests will be determined

Hurricane Tutorial in April 2011HWRF Reference ConfigurationExpanded WRF Community Code with addition of new

developments for HWRFExpanded HWRF Testing infrastructure on jet with the

addition of new components (HYCOM and high-resolution)

Input to NCEP pre-implementation decisions through HWRF testing and evaluation at DTC

Data Assimilation:Proposed ActivitiesCommunity Code

Continue to provide support for Community GSI package

Continue to maintain Community GSI repositoryCoordinate GSI Review Committee meetings and activitiesTest (and adjust if necessary) procedure for managing

R2O transition with input from GSI Review Committee

Testing and EvaluationConduct extensive tests of end-to-end system for

GSI baseline (including comparison with WRF-Var)Reassess the long term strategy for DA task

Data Assimilation:Anticipated Major Accomplishments

GSI Community CodeAnnual Community GSI Tutorial/Workshop

GSI v3.0 releaseGSI community contribution (R2O) procedure and implementation

Testing and EvaluationFinal report summarizing results of GSI and WRF-Var comparison experiments

Verification:Proposed ActivitiesMET Support

Semi-annual tutorials, expanded and improvedMET Development

Improved methods for verifying cloudsResearch on methods for verifying through timeImprovements in ensemble methods in

collaboration with DET, HWT, HMT, and HFIPExpanded capabilities of METViewerPrepare requirements document for tropical

cyclone verification tools and develop software to meet basic requirements

Verification: Anticipated Major AccomplishmentsMET Support

Improved TutorialsDemonstration of MODE enhancements for

Atmospheric River verification with HMT.MET Development

MET software releaseImproved ensemble, cloud, and time verification.

METViewer database and display releaseInitial capability to verify hurricanes

Ensembles:Proposed ActivitiesPerform testing and evaluation of cycling perturbations

techniqueContribute to next NCEP SREF implementation

Establish the capability to run different versions of NMMB under NEMSBasic capability for model perturbation module

Continue development of Ensemble testbed User Interface (EUI)

Interface with NOAA TestbedsEvaluate HMT ensemble with a focus on hydrometeorological

variablesEvaluate HWT ensemble products and establish a basic capability

for the product generation module based on the most promising techniques

Continue to engage community by co-organizing the 5th Ensemble User Workshop with NCEP

Ensembles:Anticipated Major Accomplishments

Test results and software for cycling initial perturbations

NMMB incorporated into DET under NEMSImproved Ensemble User Interface Report on HMT & HWT ensemble product evaluation

Hydromet & hazardous weather forecast productsVerification metric packages identified for hydromet &

hazardous weather (in collaboration with HMT, OHD, NCEP, etc)

Requirements and plans for the statistical post-processing, product generation, and verification modules based on community input at 5th Ensemble User Workshop

DTC Organization & AOP 2010 Tasks

WRF: WRF modeling systemWRF for Hurricanes: HWRF, HFIPGSI: Grid-point Statistical Interpolation data assimilation systemMET: Model Evaluation ToolsHMT: Hydrometeorology Testbed collaborationHWT: Hazardous Weather Testbed collaborationDET: DTC Ensemble TestbedNEMS: NOAA Environmental Modeling System

Two major functions of DTC:

A. Provide support for community systems

B. Conduct testing and evaluation of community systems for research and operations

DTC FY 2010 Budget Allocations (in $K)Task NOAA

CoreHFIP USWRP AFWA NCAR GSD NSF Total

DTC Dir. Office 373 172 100 645

Visitor Prog. 100 100 200

WRF support 593 55 50 698

HWRF 735 254 7 127 1,123

GSI 176 396 50 622

MET 92 374 21 487

HMT-DTC 300 23 323

HWT-DTC 98 50 148

DET 651 651

NEMS 173 173

Total 2,900 346 300 825 300 300 100 5,071

Comparison of AOP 2010 and 2011

AOP 2010 Tasks

AOP 2010 Budget

AOP 2011 Tasks

AOP 2011 Budget

Director’s Office

645 Director’s Office 640

Visitor Program

200 Visitor Program 200

WRF 698 Mesoscale Modeling*

1,024

HWRF 1,123 Hurricane 1,191

GSI 622 Data Assimilation

458

MET 487 Verification* 625

DET 651 Ensembles* 753

HMT 323

HWT 148

NEMS 173

5,071 4,891

*Tasks for which allocation is impacted by consolidation

HFIP Funding for DTCHFIP provided funding of $346K for DTC AOP 2010.

The funds are used primarily to support the community use of the HWRF modeling system, verification system development, and HWRF testing and evaluation.

For AOP 2011, we are requesting similar amount ($355K) for these tasks. In addition, HFIP asked DTC to take on the additional responsibility for: (i) assembling the diagnostic toolbox and (ii) making the diagnostic toolbox available to the community. We estimate the need for additional $100K for a diagnostic toolbox initial capability, which brings the total anticipated budget from HFIP to $455K.

Ensembles:Potential contributions to HFIP, NEXTGEN, & NUOPCEnsemble Testbed well positioned to contribute to multiple projectsHFIP – Collaborative development of HFIP regional ensemble

systemConduct periodic meetings with participants (up to 16 groups)Develop prototype ensemble system based on consensusCompile basic hurricane product generation algorithm package

NEXTGEN – Regional ensembles for data cubeExperimental real time CONUS SREF ensembleEmbedded fine scale CONUS ensemble for Convective Initiation (CI)

NUOPC – Support multiagency effortAssemble advanced statistical post-processing toolkit & datasets for

testingDTC Ensemble Testbed’s potential roles

Engage with / support community in prototype system developmentTesting & evaluation of prototype systemTransition to operations (outyears)

Strategy for additional 10% reductionAdditional 10% reduction in OAR funding would

reduce the overall DTC budget by another $285K.DTC will accommodate this reduction by:

Reducing community support for Mesoscale Modeling and Verification ($40 K).Reduce frequency of tutorials from twice to once per yearDiscontinue helpdesk support for NMM-E dynamic core

Reducing OAR allocation for Visitor Program ($50K)This will likely reduce NSF’s corresponding contribution by

$50KSlowing down Ensembles task ($110K)Slowing down Mesoscale Modeling & Hurricanes

tasks ($85K)

AOP 2012 and beyondIt is anticipated that FY2012 budget will be

even worse. What are the options to accommodate difficult budgets?

Seeking new funding opportunities:Within the main sponsors (NWS, OAR, AFWA,

NCAR, NSF)DET can contribute to HFIP, NEXTGEN, and NUOPC

External funding sources?There are possibility for external funding. But, this

will come with hard deliverables and additional requirements.

Focus DTC’s effort into a few key areas

Next DTC MB Face-to-Face MeetingBill Lapenta suggested having a DTC MB

solely focused on the outcome and accomplishments of DTC.

Given the budget situation, it is difficult to have too many meetings.

One possibility is to have the combined DTC MB/SAB meeting in the fall (September 2011) with expanded discussion on the outcome and accomplishments.

Feedback from DTC MB and SAB will then be incorporated into AOP 2012.