BioaccumulationBioaccumulation Model (FCM)Model (FCM)

General Electric Housatonic River Site, Rest of River

Great Barrington, MA

CCC Meeting February 22, 2006

Gary Lawrence (Golder Associates Ltd.) Jonathan Clough (Warren Pinnacle Consulting)

OutlineOutline

1.1. Model OverviewModel Overview 2.2. FCM Validation Results (PSA)FCM Validation Results (PSA) 3.3. FCM Downstream ModelingFCM Downstream Modeling

Reach Pomeroy Avenue 5B

RoRoaarriinngg BrBrooookkEast/West Branch LOCATOR MAP

Confluence FCM Spatial DomainFCM Spatial Domain Holmes Road FCM ModelMA

Yokun Domain (PSA)Brook CTReach Sackett

5A Brook

Reach 5C

Reach 5D N

W E

Pittsfield S

WWTP 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 Miles

Woods Pond Headwaters

Reach 5B

LEGEND New Lenox Reach

Road 6 Backwater RegionsFCM DomainWoods Pond Main Channel Footbridge 10-Year Floodplain

Woods Pond # Dam

BioaccumulationBioaccumulation

PCB

Bioaccumulation = the process by which living things•• Bioaccumulation = the process by which living things accumulate contaminants from their environmentaccumulate contaminants from their environment Occurs by feeding and by contact•• Occurs by feeding and by contact with water and solidswith water and solids

Phytoplankton

Zooplankton

Aquatic Insects

Forage Fish

Predator Fish

BiomagnificationBiomagnification

• Biomagnification: concentration in the food chain • PCBs both bioaccumulate and biomagnify

• Biomagnification: concentration in the food chain • PCBs both bioaccumulate and biomagnify

PCB

Model LinkagesModel Linkages

PCB Exposure Inputs (EFDC)

Temperature (HSPF)

Bioaccumulation Model (FCM)

Exposure Inputs from EFDC:Exposure Inputs from EFDC: 1.1. PCB in bed sedimentPCB in bed sediment

organic carbonorganic carbon 2.2. PCB in water columnPCB in water column

organic matter (POM)organic matter (POM) 3.3. Dissolved PCB in sedimentDissolved PCB in sediment

pore waterpore water 4.4. Dissolved PCB in waterDissolved PCB in water

columncolumn

2

4

1 3

Conceptual ModelConceptual Model

Bioaccumulation ProcessesBioaccumulation Processes

• PCB Uptake: a. Dietary uptakeb. Respiration

• PCB Elimination

• PCB Uptake: a. Dietary uptake b. Respiration

• PCB Elimination

a d

b c

iiij

n

j ijcui

i vGKvCcKdt dv )(

1 +−+= ∑

=

α

b a c & d

c.c. Depuration (loss by gill elimination and fecal egestion)Depuration (loss by gill elimination and fecal egestion) d.d. Growth dilutionGrowth dilution

FCM ValidationFCM Validation Results -Results - PSAPSA

FCM Representative FishFCM Representative Fish

Bullhead

Bass

SunfishCyprinid Minnows

Upstream Downstream

Predators

Forage Fish

Bottom Fish

White Sucker

Validation – FCM Representative Species

Validation – FCM Representative Species

1000

Sim

ulat

ed F

ish

Tiss

ue P

CB

Con

cent

ratio

ns (m

g/kg

ww

)

100

10

1

1 10 100 1000

Validation Data Set, Measured PCB Concentrations (mg/kg ww) Expressed as Averages for each Combination of FCM Species, Age, Reach, and Date Collected

Overprediction by 5-fold Overprediction by 2.5-fold Perfect fit line Underprediction by 2.5-fold Underprediction by 5-fold Unique Age, Species, Reach, Date 1< n < 7 n > 6

(Over-prediction)

(Under-prediction)

Validation – By Sample Size(Lipid-normalized tPCB)

Validation – By Sample Size(Lipid-normalized tPCB)

10000

FCM Species, Age, Reach, and Date Collected

Sim

ulat

ed F

ish

Tiss

ue P

CB

Con

cent

ratio

ns (m

g/kg

lipi

d)

oil

vinegar

lipid

non-lipid

100

1000

100 1000 10000

Validation Data Set, Measured PCB Concentrations (mg/kg lipid) Expressed as Averages for each Combination of

Overprediction by 5-fold Overprediction by 2.5-fold Perfect fit line Underprediction by 2.5-fold Underprediction by 5-fold Unique Age, Species, Reach, Date 1< n < 7 n > 6

Validation – By SpeciesValidation – By Species

1

10

100

1000

1 10 100 1000

Validation Data Set, Measured PCB Concentrations (mg/kg ww) Expressed as Averages for each Combination of FCM Species, Age, Reach, and Date Collected

Sim

ulat

ed F

ish

Tiss

ue P

CB

Con

cent

ratio

ns (m

g/kg

ww

)

Overprediction by 5-fold Overprediction by 2.5-fold Perfect fit line Underprediction by 2.5-fold Underprediction by 5-fold Bass Bullhead Sunfish White Sucker

Si

mul

ated

Fis

h Ti

ssue

PC

B C

once

ntra

tions

(mg/

kg w

w)

Validation – By River ReachValidation – By River Reach 1000

Overprediction by 5-fold Overprediction by 2.5-fold Perfect fit line Underprediction by 2.5-fold Underprediction by 5-fold Reach 5A Reach 5B Reach 5C Woods Pond

Reach 6

Reach 5

100

10

1

1 10 100 1000

Validation Data Set, Measured PCB Concentrations (mg/kg ww) Expressed as Averages for each Combination of FCM Species, Age, Reach, and Date Collected

1000

100

10

Bas

s Ti

ssue

tPC

B (m

g/kg

ww

)

Validation – Adult LargemouthBass (By Time Period)

Validation – Adult LargemouthBass (By Time Period)

1000

(Young Fish Aged 1+ to 5+ Years Only)

ww

)

(Mature Fish Aged 6+ Or Greater Only)

100

Bas

s Ti

ssue

tPC

B (m

g/kg

10

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Sampling/Simulation Date Sampling/Simulation Date

Measured -R each 5B (Age 6+ to 9+) Measured - Reach 6 (Age 6+ to 9+)Measured - Reach 6 (Age 2+ to 5+) Simulated - Reach 6 (Age 4+) Simulated -R each 5B (Age 8+) Simulated - Reach 6 (Age 8+)Measured - Reach 5C (Age 2+) Simulated - Reach 5C (Age 2+)

Measured - Reach 5B (Age 5+) Simulated - Reach 5B (Age 5+) Simulated -R each 5A (Age 8+) Simulated - Reach 5C (Age 8+)

Simulated - Reach 5A (Age 3+) Simulated - Reach 5D (Age 3+) Simulated -R each 5D (Age 8+)

Validation – InterspeciesExtrapolation (lipid-normalized tPCB)

Validation – InterspeciesExtrapolation (lipid-normalized tPCB)

100

1000

10000

100 1000 10000

Validation Data Set, Measured PCB Concentrations (mg/kg lipid) Expressed as Averages for each Combination of FCM Species, Age, Reach, and Date Collected

Sim

ulat

ed F

ish

Tiss

ue P

CB

Con

cent

ratio

ns (m

g/kg

lipi

d) Overprediction by 5-fold Overprediction by 2.5-fold Perfect fit line Underprediction by 2.5-fold Underprediction by 5-fold Yellow Perch Other Predator Trout Carp Goldfish

MB* > 1.0 = Overprediction

MB* < 1.0 = Underprediction 1 Species extrapolations required

2 Lipid-normalized results used

Model Performance MeasuresModel Performance Measures

Data Grouping Samples MAPE MB*

Type of Measure Accuracy Bias All Samples 484 39% 0.94

FCM Representative Species 247 44% 0.91

All Other Species1 237 34% 0.99

Reach 5A 35 35% 0.95

Reach 5B 195 40% 0.86

Reach 5C 8 60% 0.67

Reach 6 246 38% 1.03

Bass 153 39% 1.04

Bullhead 4 73% 0.68

Carp1,2 8 57% 1.66

Goldfish1,2 42 43% 0.73

Other Predator1 3 38% 1.31

Sunfish 89 51% 0.72

Trout1,2 6 74% 1.35

White Sucker 1 3% 0.97

Yellow Perch1 178 29% 1.02

All YOY Samples 244 36% 0.89

All Adult Fish 240 42% 1.00

MFD/QAPP validation performance measure:

0.40 < MB* < 2.50

Observed range:

0.68 < MB* < 1.66