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PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013 1 Biodiversity indicators for national use For support of policies and integrated development strategies By Tonnie Tekelenburg

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Page 1: Biodiversity indicators for national use - GLOBIO. Biodiversity indicators for... · Biodiversity indicators for national use For support of policies and integrated development strategies

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Biodiversity indicators for national use

For support of policies and integrated development strategies By Tonnie Tekelenburg

Page 2: Biodiversity indicators for national use - GLOBIO. Biodiversity indicators for... · Biodiversity indicators for national use For support of policies and integrated development strategies

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Content

Policies and indicators Biodiversity indicators for

national use Selection for modelling and

scenario analysis

Page 3: Biodiversity indicators for national use - GLOBIO. Biodiversity indicators for... · Biodiversity indicators for national use For support of policies and integrated development strategies

What is biodiversity?

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Page 4: Biodiversity indicators for national use - GLOBIO. Biodiversity indicators for... · Biodiversity indicators for national use For support of policies and integrated development strategies

CBD definition of biodiversity: “diversity of genes, species and ecosystems”

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Species

Wild species

Domesticated species

Biodiversity conservation

Sustainable use

Benefit sharing

Biodiversity conservation

Sustainable use

Benefit sharing

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Well known biodiversity indicators

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Global Biodiversity

red list

wilderness areas

species richness

agro-biodiversity (commercial species) LPI

quality of ecosystems

natural/nature area

species trend index

pressure index

hot spots

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The DPSIR model

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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IMPACT on human wellbeing DRIVERS

PRESSURES

STATE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

BIODIVERSITY

RESPONS

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

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Biodiversity is about people

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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State of the art indicator framework

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Genetic Functional Associated (Wild species)

Pressure International market

Pesticide-use

Landuse intensity

State Agro-biodiversity

pollinators Farmland bird trend-index

Response Poverty reduction?

Ecological corridors

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Key questions State: What is the state of biodiversity in national ecosystems?

Pressures: What is the current use of potential ecosystems? What is the socio-economic context of people?

Drivers: Population growth Economic growth or poverty trap, changing consumption patterns, technology change

Impact: What is the impact of changing human use on biodiversity? What is the impact of infrastructure on patters of biodiversity loss? Responses: What is the effectivity of implemented policies such as protected areas? What is the level of financieal support to biodiveristy conservation?

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Page 10: Biodiversity indicators for national use - GLOBIO. Biodiversity indicators for... · Biodiversity indicators for national use For support of policies and integrated development strategies

Species diversity

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Plant species diversity

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Species trend index (LPI)

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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How to measure change?

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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How to put nature and biodiversity in figures: Number of species? Number of threatened species? Number of extinct species? Extent of ecosystems? Extent of species rich ecosystems? The number of individuals of certain (Key) species?

Biodiversity loss is not only the extinction of species! Extinction is just a last step in a long degradation process

Page 14: Biodiversity indicators for national use - GLOBIO. Biodiversity indicators for... · Biodiversity indicators for national use For support of policies and integrated development strategies

Characteristics of good indicators

Policy (goal) oriented Measurable and affordable Scientific sound Easy to communicate Describe process of homogenisation Can be related to human impacts Scale independent Use of models as data are not always available

(see next slide)

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Indicator framework (example)

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Grupo Aspecto Criterio Estadística

¿Estado de los

ecosistemas?

¿Contribución de las AP?

Estado

Ambiental

Ecosistemas Área del ecosistema natural X X

Índice de diversidad de ecosistemas X X

Especies Índice de diversidad de especies X

Número de especies amenazadas X X

Servicios Aporte ecosistémico Área de tipos de uso en un ecosistema X

Presupuesto hídrico anual

Social Condición población Estructura de la tenencia de la tierra X

Incidencia de la pobreza de la población

Presión

Actividades productivas

Extracción Extensión de concesiones madereras X

Tasa de deforestación X X

Producción Producción camaronera anual

Accesibilidad potencial X X

Social Dinámica poblacional Densidad media de la población

Tasa de crecimiento de la población X

Respuesta

Estatal

Nacional Presupuesto ambiental nacional X

Presupuesto del Ministerio del Ambiente X

Seccional Planes ambientales seccionales X

Presupuesto seccional ambiental

Gestión AP Extensión de áreas protegidas X

Inversión en áreas protegidas X

Sociedad

Inversión conservación Inversión internacional en conservación X X

Inversión nacional en conservación X

Investigación Publicaciones científicas

Inversión tecnológica Inversión en tecnología limpia

Org. ambientales Número de organismos ambientales

National statistics

Ind

icators

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PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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SAfMA casestudy

Southern Africa and RIVM

Europa study by WCMC and RIVM

Great five of Africa by external specialist groups

Representative species for global biodiversity

Marine Ecosystems by RIVM and WCMC

Generic model on pressure index and country species occurrence datasets by RIVM, GRID and WCMC

Analysis with data gaps

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Analysis with a short time frame

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Analysis with a longer time frame

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Indicator: why is baseline important?

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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List of biodiversity indicators and its complementary value

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Indicator Complementary value 1 Absolute species richness

relative contribution to global biodiversity

2 Shannon-Wiener (Weaver) index

---

3 Species richness (relative) --- 4 Number endemic species

Uniqueness of species (and habitats)

5 Red list species threatened with extinction or extirpation

Urgency for protection measures

6 Species(group) trend index

high affected species groups (migratory birds)

7 Area of ecosystems Land use change

8 Quality of ecosystems

Average impact

9 Rareness or scarceness of species in ecosystems

-------

10 Local pressure index

sustainable resource use nature conservation strategies

11 Global and regional pressure index

Response options

12 Wilderness area

Conservation priority

13 Hot spot areas

Vulnerability of ecosystems Sustainable development

14 Mean Species Abundance

Average trend species diversity Naturalness

Page 21: Biodiversity indicators for national use - GLOBIO. Biodiversity indicators for... · Biodiversity indicators for national use For support of policies and integrated development strategies

Drivers = underlying causes Demographic change Economic growth Poverty and inequality National public policies and markets Ineffective government and non cohesive society Macro-economic policies and structures Social change and development biases Patterns of consumption Climate change

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Page 22: Biodiversity indicators for national use - GLOBIO. Biodiversity indicators for... · Biodiversity indicators for national use For support of policies and integrated development strategies

Pressures = unconscious and conscious cumulative effects of human activity Habitat conversion Unsustainable use and management Domestication Introduction of invasive exotic species Selective harvesting: trade of species, hunting and fishery Pollution of air, soil, and water Natural events Fire and erosion Disturbance by light and noise Fragmentation Removal vegetation cover Thinning, hunting, gathering or fishing of populations of species Exposure to toxic elements from the environment

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Environmental conditions Change vegetation cover Climatic conditions temperature and precipitation Adequate soils Changes in fertility of soils: Nitrate availability Acidity (PH) in soils Changes in structure of soils

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Red list of Threatened species

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Species Richness: Known plant and animal species

Ecosystem quality

Ecosystem size

LPI (Species

trend index)

Abundance - distribution trend per species

Hot spot

Local and regional pressures

Wilderness area

Mean Species Abundance

Area country or ecosystem size +

Endemic species

7 8 9

3 4

2

11 10

13 12 14

+

6

1

Invasive species

5

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Potential ecosystems

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Siglas Ecosistema Km2 % Nac

bha Bosque húmedo amazónico 74919,87 30,12

bhai Bosque húmedo amazónico inundable 11913,33 4,79

bhc Bosque húmedo de la costa 47405,15 19,06

bhmoc Bosque húmedo montano occidental 21201,09 8,52

bhmor Bosque húmedo montano oriental 31827,93 12,79

bsmor Bosque seco montano oriental 368,97 0,15

bsoc Bosque seco occidental 33863,97 13,61

h Humedal 448,03 0,18

m Manglar 2819,91 1,13

n Nieve 212,05 0,09

ph Páramo húmedo 13680,72 5,50

ps Páramo seco 1804,4 0,73

vhi Vegetación húmeda interandina 5943,22 2,39

vsi Vegetación seca interandina 2369,56 0,95

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Remnants of natural ecosystems

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

bha bhai bhc bhmoc bhmor bsmor bsoc h m n ph ps vhi vsi

Natural Mosaico Intervenido

56

29

16

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Distribution of nature, mosaics and intervention areas

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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56

29

16

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Average naturalness/intactness of ecosystems (MSA)

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

bha bhai bhc bhmoc bhmor bsmor bsoc h m n ph ps vhi vsi NAC

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Comparison between ecosystems

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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77,05 7,35

2,83

Humid tropical forest = 87,23 MSA 5,1

7,14

15,96

High versus low integrity/intactness

Scrubland ecosystem = 28,20 MSA

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Share of ecosystem in and outside the national protected area system

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

bha bhai bhc bhmoc bhmor bsmor bsoc h m n ph ps vhi vsi NAC

Dentro SNAP Fuera SNAP

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Average ecosystem quality/ ecosystem integrity (MSA) of protected areas

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Área protegida Biovalor

Refugio de Vida Silvestre Islas Corazón y Fragatas 0,05

Ecosistema de Manglar del Esturio del Río Muisne 0,28

Refugio de Vida Silvestre Isla Sta.Clara 0,40

Reserva de Producción Faunística Chimborazo 0,76

Reserva Ecológica Mache Chindul 0,76

Reserva Ecológica Los ILinizas 0,77

Reserva Ecológica Manglares Churute 0,84

Parque Nacional Cotopaxi 0,87

Reserva Ecológica Manglares Cayapas Mataje 0,87

Parque Nacional Machalilla 0,90

Parque Nacional Sangay 0,91

Reserva Ecológica Cayambe Coca 0,93

Parque Nacional LLanganates 0,97

Reserva de Vida Silvestre Pasochoa 0,98

Reserva de Producción Faunística Cuyabeno 0,98

Reserva Ecológica Cotacachi Cayapas 0,99

Parque Nacional Yasuní 0,99

Parque Nacional Cajas 0,99

Reserva Ecológica Cofán Bermejo 1,00

Parque Nacional Podocarpus 1,00

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Ecosystem integrity (MSA) in protected areas

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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Page 33: Biodiversity indicators for national use - GLOBIO. Biodiversity indicators for... · Biodiversity indicators for national use For support of policies and integrated development strategies

A minimum set of biodiversity indicators

Human pressures on biodiversity: land use change etc. State: change of area size of natural (and agricultural)

ecosystems State: changes of mean species abundance (MSA) ecosystem

intactness Change of species trends (STI or LPI) State: changes of the red list species (RLI) Response: goal realisation indicator(s) related to evaluation

of the impact of specific policy measures (size of protected area for example)

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Conclusions

Start from policy-oriented key questions and existing statistics

Find historical data and future projections

Use proxy indicators

Integrate local indicators with national frameworks for modelling and analysis

PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013

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