© OECD/IEA 2014

Bioenergy Roadmap Update Workshop Adam Brown

Pharoah Le Feuvre Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency

Paris 6 July 2016

© OECD/IEA 2014

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA Bioenergy Roadmaps

2011

2012

© OECD/IEA 2015

Bioenergy generation by region (2006-20)

As growth slows in some major OECD bioenergy markets, higher levels of generation are anticipated in certain non-OECD countries with abundant resources and policy

drivers.

Medium-term market overview for bioenergy electricity by region

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© OECD/IEA 2015

Further policy support required to accelerate growth in renewable heat

Consumption of modern renewable energy for heat 2008-20

Challenges persist to increasing the contribution of renewables and decarbonising the heat sector, however established renewable heat policies have proved successful.

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© OECD/IEA 2015

Policy uncertainty and structural challenges have slowed biofuels growth

World biofuels production and forecast 2009-21

Global conventional biofuels growth has slowed since 2009.

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United States biofuels Brazil biofuelsEU-28 biofuels Rest of world biofuelsAs % of global road transport demand

© OECD/IEA 2015

Accelerated growth is required to meet climate change objectives

Global biofuels production and medium-term forecast compared with

current IEA 2DS scenario requirements

A significant advanced biofuels contribution, alongside improved fuel economy and EV roll-out, is central to decarbonisation of the transport sector.

© OECD/IEA 2015

A changing context for bioenergy in the face of wind and PV technology cost reductions

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Landfill Gas Gasification Aenerobic

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Onshore wind Solar PV - utility scale Selected bioenergy technologies

USD

/MWh

Historical and forecast global weighted average generation costs for new

onshore wind and PV plants vs. bioenergy LCOE ranges

High levels of incentives are no longer necessary for solar PV and onshore wind in many markets, which

may focus opportunities for biomass electricity on the most promising applications.

© OECD/IEA 2016

ETP 2016 2DS Primary Energy Demand

© OECD/IEA 2016

What’s Changed?

Slow increase in deployment

Increasing competition from both fossil fuels (at current low prices) and other sources of renewables electricity

Increased attention to the overall carbon savings and sustainability issues relating to bioenergy, including ILUC and food competition

Slower than anticipated technology progress

More focus on the broader role of bio-based materials as feedstocks for non-energy products

© OECD/IEA 2016

Bioenergy and biofuels roadmap update

One document covering biofuels and bioenergy.

Document overview:

Progress 2010-15

Markets, technology development, fuel supply chains, policies

Ten year vision – outlook to 2025

Short-term actions, what can be replicated now…

Revised vision to 2050

Current status of project

Initial scoping workshop - July

© OECD/IEA 2016

Objectives Today

1. to scope out the principal issues which affect prospects for bioenergy deployment in the short medium and long term and which merit further investigation in drafting the roadmap and in the ETP chapter;

2. to have an initial discussion on a number of key issues, and in particular: • What are the most promising and significant short-term

opportunities for bioenergy and what's needed to deliver them? • Will the availability of sustainable bioenergy resources

constrain the role of bioenergy in future low carbon scenarios? • What are the opportunities and challenges associated with

bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS)? • What are the key technology developments needed to deliver a

high share of sustainable bioenergy and what are the main challenges to putting them to work?

© OECD/IEA 2016

Main Challenges

Short Term

• Financial competition from low oil/gas and coal prices

Medium Term

• Emergence of new technologies

Long term

• Sustainable feedstock supply

© OECD/IEA 2016

Issues

What are the short term opportunities for sustainable cost-competitive bioenergy?

Availability of sustainable biomass and carbon benefits? Where best to use it?

BECCS?

Costs and cost projections

Rate of development of key technologies and influence of enabling environment?

Bioenergy in the wider bio-economy?

Role of bio-electricity and heat in a high VRE electricity system?

Optimum role for biofuels in transport (getting beyond the blend wall?)

Effective policy best practice including carbon pricing?

© OECD/IEA 2016

Back-up slides

© OECD/IEA 2016 © IEA 2016

Early signs of commercialisation in the advanced biofuels sector

Advanced biofuels – needed for long-term decarbonisation of the transport sector – are starting to scale up from a low base.

Recently commissioned commercial-scale advanced biofuel plants

© OECD/IEA 2016 © IEA 2016

Challenging for cellulosic ethanol to compete at current low oil prices

Cellulosic ethanol breakeven crude oil price for competitiveness with gasoline

Current production cost estimates suggest breakeven with gasoline at USD 100-130/barrel crude oil prices, but realising significant scope for cost reduction could change this picture.

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Note: Equivalent wholesale gasoline prices are based on a USD 10/barrel margin on crude oil price.

Achievable with industry

expansion?

2014-15 cost estimates

© OECD/IEA 2016 © IEA 2016

ETP 2016 Electricity 462 TWh 3472 TWh

© OECD/IEA 2016 © IEA 2016

BECCS in 2DS

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TWh Biomass with CCS

Biomass and waste

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© OECD/IEA 2016 © IEA 2016

ETP 2016 Bioenergy in Industry Sectors

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Biomass, waste and otherrenewables

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© OECD/IEA 2016 © IEA 2016

ETP Bioenergy in Buildings 7.1 EJ

© OECD/IEA 2016 © IEA 2016

ETP 2016 – Transport FEC 3 EJ 24 EJ

© OECD/IEA 2016 © IEA 2016

Biofuel Split – ETP 2DS

© OECD/IEA 2015

ETP 2DS Transport by Fuel 2015-50

Discussion: technology developments to deliver biojet, advanced ethanol and renewable diesel scale-up 2030-50.