biofuels in transport: future fuel grades

Biofuels in Transport: Future Fuel Grades

Kenneth D Rose

Technical Coordinator, Fuels and Emissions

2012 BP Madrid Forum on Energy and Sustainability

Madrid, Spain

13-14th June, 2012

Biofuels in Transport: Future Fuel Grades Kenneth D Rose, CONCAWE

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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement

CONCAWE: Research in Diverse Areas

!  Automotive Emissions & Fuel Quality !  Air Quality !  Water/Soil Quality & Waste !  Oil Pipelines !  Safety

CONservation of

Clean

Air and

Water in

Europe

The Oil Companies’ European association for health, safety and environment in refining and distribution (founded in 1963)

Operating Principles: "  Sound science "  Cost-effectiveness of options "  Transparency of results

!  Refinery Technology Support !  Health Science !  Petroleum Products !  Risk Assessment !  REACH & GHS Implementation


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  Open to companies that own refining capacity in Europe

  Currently 41 Members and Associates*  Representing ~100% of European refining capacity

  Not for profit Association, mostly funded by Member Companies

CONCAWE Member Companies

IPLOM Koch KPI LOTOS LUKOIL LyondellBasell MOL Motor Oil Hellas Murco Neste Oil Nynäs OMV Petroplus Phillips 66

AlmaPetroli api BP CEPSA ENI ERG Essar Oil UK ExxonMobil Galp Energia Hansen & Rosenthal Hellenic Petroleum INA* INEOS

PKN Orlen Preem Raffinerie Heide Repsol Rompetrol SARA SARAS Shell SRD Statoil St1 Tamoil TOTAL Valero


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EU-27 Product Demand Trends: Including Biofuels

  Continuing shift in road fuel demand from gasoline to diesel   Vehicle efficiency improvements and alternative vehicles result in

steady decline of total road fuel demand from 2015 onwards   Ratio of diesel to gasoline continues to grow through 2030   Jet/kero demand is increasing

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Rat

io: t

ota

l die

sel /

gas

olin

e

Dem

and

Mt/a

Gasoline Jet/Kero On-road Diesel Off-road Diesel (incl. rail)

Source: CONCAWE/IEA/ Wood Mackenzie 2011 Gasoline and diesel trends to 2020 are from the JEC Biofuels Study + E10 and B10 scenario + 95g CO2/km assumed for cars by 2020 Extension to 2030 is CONCAWE work in progress + 75g CO2/km assumed for cars by 2030

JEC: JRC-EUCAR-CONCAWE


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Short on Distillates, Long on Gasoline

!  Europe continues to be short on diesel and jet/kero production, long on gasoline providing a market opportunity for biodiesel blendstocks

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel Gasoil LSFO HSFO

Bala

nces

, Mt

.

2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025

Surplus

Deficit

Source Wood Mackenzie (2011)

European Union Refinery supply balance

Deficit


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!  Renewable Energy Directive (RED) #  Requires Member States to meet 10% renewable energy share in the transport

sector by 2020 (detailed in National Renewable Energy Action Plans, NREAPs) #  Requires sustainable cultivation, production, and certification of biofuels as well

as minimum greenhouse gas (GHG) savings per unit energy !  Fuels Quality Directive (FQD)

#  Requires fuel suppliers to achieve at least 6% GHG saving from fuels supplied in 2020 with indicative targets (versus a 2010 baseline)

#  Specifies an E10 main grade with an E5 ‘protection grade’ for older vehicles !  Vehicle Regulated Emissions/Enhanced Durability Requirements

#  Light-duty passenger cars: Euro 5/5b to 2014, Euro 6 from 2015 onwards #  Heavy-duty vehicles: Euro V to 2013; Euro VI from 2014 onwards #  EC work in progress on ‘real world’ cycles, evap emissions, metallic additives

!  Vehicle CO2 Emissions

#  Light-duty passenger cars: new vehicle fleet average 130g/km by 2015 and review of 2020 targets

#  Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) fleet: new fleet average 175g/km by 2015 and review of 2020 targets

EU Regulatory Environment


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!  Vehicles: #  More advanced engines & after treatment, diversification in engines and fleet #  Fuel consumption of LD vehicles improving, HD diesel demand increasing #  Increasing pressure on OEMs for CO2 reductions with associated higher cost #  More R&D focus on improving fuel consumption, less on biofuel compatibility #  Customer preferences potentially in conflict with mobility policies

!  Refineries:

#  Increasing imbalance in diesel/gasoline demand ratio #  Higher CO2 emissions due to distillate demand and product specifications #  Increasing pressure on CO2 emissions reduction (FQD Art. 7a) with higher cost

!  Biofuels and other Renewables:

#  Renewables in transport fuels mandated by RED to 10% (energy) by 2020 #  Conventional biofuels widely available but with sustainability/ILUC* concerns #  Pace and priorities differ across Member States (according to NREAPs) #  CEN fuel specifications struggling to keep pace with legislative mandates #  Slower than expected pace of development for advanced biofuels

Coming Decade for European Road Transport

ILUC = Indirect Land Use Change


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Pace of Bio-technology Developments

Defined By Feedstock Utilisation

Defined By Technology Maturity

�1st Generation�

"   Ethanol from sugar cane, grains, sugar beets, etc.

"   FAME from: "   vegetable oils "   animal, waste oils

Widely available commercial technology:

"   Fermentation "   Etherification "   Esterification

�2nd Generation�

"   Ethanol from biomass "   Di Methyl Ether from black liquor

"   Hydrogenated oils "   FAME from:

"   non-edible seeds (jatropha, karanja) "   new seed oils (cuphea, crambe, cotton seed)

"   Biomass to Liquids

Being implemented or at pilot plant stage:

"   Hydrogenation "   Hydrotreating "   Gasification/synthesis "   Lignocellulose process

�3rd Generation�

"   Biogas from waste "   Biohydrogen

"   Biodiesel and biojet from algae

At research stage: "   Pyrolysis "   Hydrothermal upgrade

Winning biofuel technologies must: !  Reduce GHG emissions on a Well-to-Wheels basis !  Be energy efficient, sustainably produced, and cost-competitive !  Be acceptable to OEMs, be compatible with the fuel supply and distribution system, and perform well in customer�s vehicles!


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Substituting Fossil Fuels by Biofuels

  Availability of �1st generation� bio-components:  Ethanol will be more readily available but less utilised in

Europe compared to FAME because of the fleet demand  Biodiesel components are needed to counterbalance

Europe�s ever-increasing diesel/gasoline ratio  Methodologies have been deployed to define sustainable

biofuels and certify them for use in road fuels  Biofuels are not 100% renewable and contribute only

partly to GHG emission reductions  Uncertainty about policy decisions related to indirect land

use change (ILUC) effects   “1st generation” bio-components will be the mainstay of the

road fuel pool for many years while “2nd and 3rd generation” products slowly enter the marketplace  Perceived competition from different transport modes for

most attractive products


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Current European CEN Specifications: •  For pure bio-components:

•  Ethanol (for gasoline blending): EN15376 •  Fatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAME, also B100): EN14214

•  Gasoline (EN228): 5% v/v ethanol (E5) and 2.7 wt% oxygen •  CEN has agreed in principle to a new E10 specification (up to 3.7 wt% oxygen) that should be formally approved by YE2012

•  Diesel (EN590): 7% v/v FAME in diesel fuel (B7) •  CEN is preparing a separate B10 specification at the EC�s request

•  Generally no limits on the addition of advanced renewable diesel •  Hydrogenated vegetable oils (HVO) and animal fats •  Biomass-to-Liquids (BTL)

• CEN Working Group formed to define technical barriers for E10+ fuel Member State Initiatives: •  France: E10 and B30 for captive fleets •  Germany: E10, �B10� (B7 plus 3% HVO), B100 for adapted vehicles •  Other Countries:

•  E10 in Finland, Spain •  E85 in Austria, France, Germany, and Sweden •  B20 in Poland and B30 in Czech Republic for captive fleets

Biofuels: Blends in the EU27 Marketplace


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CONCAWE Market Fuel Survey: 4Q10-1Q11

  Survey of European market fuels completed 4Q10-1Q11 with fuel pick-ups from service stations, analysis in single lab

  Gasoline qualities:  Oxygenate type and content  Distillation properties

  Diesel qualities:  FAME content  Oxidation stability

 Rancimat oxidation  PetroOxy method  Delta TAN  Peroxide Number

 Cetane Improver content

Country EN590 Diesel

Samples 4Q10-1Q11

EN228 Gasoline Samples

4Q10-1Q11 Austria 5 5 Belgium 10 10 Croatia 4 2

Czech Republic 3 3 France 20 10

Germany 20 11 Hungary 5 5

Italy 15 10 The Netherlands 5 5

Romania 5 5 Slovakia 4 3 Slovenia 2 2

Spain 20 5 Sweden 4 4

United Kingdom 10 10 Finland 5 5 Poland 5 5

GRAND TOTAL 142 100


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CONCAWE Market Fuel Survey: Gasoline

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1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81

Oxygenate3Con

tent3(%

3v/v)

Petrol3Market3Fuel3Sample

Petrol3Market3Fuel3Survey:3Oxygenate3Content

MTBE

ETBE

Ethanol

  4Q10-1Q11 survey of gasolines from service stations in 17 European countries


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CONCAWE Market Fuel Survey: FAME Content

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AT BE CRO CZ DE FI FR HU IT NL PL RO SE SI SK SP UK

FAM

E C

onte

nt (

% v

/v)

MAX

MIN

AVG

  4Q10-1Q11 survey of diesel fuels from service stations in 17 European countries


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The JEC research collaboration was initiated in 2000 by: •  JRC: Joint Research Centre of the European Commission •  EUCAR: European Council for Automotive R&D •  CONCAWE: Research Association of the European Oil Refining Industry

JEC Biofuels Study: Implementation Scenarios

Collaborative Projects 2000-2011: Projects Completed

•  Well-to-Wheels (WTW) Study Versions 1, 2b, and 2c •  WTW Study Version 3: Tank-to-Wheels (TTW) •  WTW Study Version 3: Well-to-Tank (WTT) and Well-to-Wheels (WTW) •  Impact of ethanol on vehicle evaporative emissions (SAE 2007-01-1928) •  Impact of ethanol in petrol on fuel consumption and emissions •  JEC Biofuels Study for a 2020 time horizon

•  http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/about-jec $ analysis of nine scenarios for biofuel implementation in road transport by 2020

2011+: Projects in progress •  2011+: Revision of WTW Study (Version 4)


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Scenario 1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Scenario 6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1 Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2 Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3 Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1 Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2 Diesel Grade 2




Scenario 5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2

B10 (all)

B10 (all)

B15 (HD)B7

E10 E20

E5

E10 E20

E5E10

E10

B7

E20

E5E10

E5 E10

E5 E10E10 E20

B10 (HD)

E85B7

B7B10 (HD)

E10E85

E85

B7

E5E10

B7

B7

E5 E10

B7

E5

B7

E10

E5 E10

JEC Biofuel Study: 9 Implementation Scenarios

!  Scenario 1: Reference Case !  Scenarios 2-4: Higher Biofuel Grades

!  Scenarios 5-6: High Biodiesel Grades (HD) !  Scenarios 7-9: Plus Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs)

Source: JEC Biofuels Study (2011)


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!  Optimistic assumptions used for vehicle compatibility and market uptake !  Considerable coordinated effort would be required to implement higher

biofuel scenarios by 2020 achieving only a small increase in % renewables

JEC Biofuel Implementation Scenarios

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15.0%

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1 (REF) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% R

ED

EU27

+2

Tran

spor

t FA

ME

and

Etha

nol D

eman

d (M

toe/

a)

FAME Ethanol % RED: Road % RED: All Modes

Scenario

FAME Ethanol

B7 B7 B10 B10 B7/B15H B7/B10H B7 B7 B7/B10H E10 E20 E10 E20 E20 E20 E10/E85 E20/E85 E10/E85

Source: JEC Biofuels Study (2011)


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Future Fuel Grades: Implications and �Wildcards�

Implications:   Before 2020, E5/E10 (ethanol and ether), B7, and E85 are

most likely fuel grades for broad market penetration   Selected markets for B10 and B30-B100 for captive fleets   E10+ might be possible near the end of the decade   Customer awareness and fuel/vehicle labeling important   Difficulty meeting RED and FQD targets complicated by

uncertainty on ILUC policy options   Demand for advanced biofuels that �tick all the boxes� �Wildcards�   Policy decisions related to ILUC factors and GHG thresholds  Member State mandates and expectations (NREAPs)   Fuel demand on refineries and imports/exports   Compatibility of future vehicles with higher biofuel grades   Pace of development of new �winning biofuel technologies�   Fuel costs and customer acceptance


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  What is the right strategy for limited bio-components and how can technical and customer acceptance be improved?   Niche market applications for road fuels?   General use in road fuels?   General use in the transport sector?   General use in the energy sector?

  How much biodiesel meeting all sustainability criteria will realistically be available by 2020?

  How much of this biodiesel will be �1st vs. 2nd Generation�? How quickly can �2nd Gen� products displace �1st Gen� products?

  What is the best use for available land and crops?   How can we ensure that the current and future fleet are

compatible with the future fuel mix?   What can be done to encourage consumer acceptance?

Many Questions Still to be Answered


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Back-up Charts


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CONCAWE Activities and Contacts

  CONCAWE Secretary General Michael Lane ([email protected]) +32 2 566 9161

  Air Quality Pete Roberts ([email protected]) +32 2 566 9171 Lucia Gonzalez Bajos ([email protected]) +32 2 566 9164

  Fuel Quality and Emissions Ken Rose ([email protected]) +32 2 566 9169

  Health Science and REACH Arlean Rohde ([email protected]) +32 2 566 9163

  Petroleum Products and REACH Bo Dmytrasz ([email protected]) +32 2 566 9165

  Refinery Technology Alan Reid ([email protected]) +32 2 566 9167

  Safety and Oil Pipelines Klaas den Haan ([email protected]) +32 2 566 9183

  Water/Soil Quality and Waste Klaas den Haan ([email protected]) +32 2 566 9183

  REACH Implementation/SIEFs management Sophie Bornstein ([email protected]) +32 2 566 91 68

  [email protected] (general email contact)   www.concawe.org (web site)

biofuels in transport: future fuel grades

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