biofuels: lca and the cdm - how you make it matters - quest workshop – sustainable forestry &...

Biofuels: LCA and the CDM- how you make it matters -

QUEST Workshop – Sustainable Forestry & Climate Mitigation

Bristol University25th and 26th July 2005

Dr Jeremy Woods (ICEPT) & Gareth Brown (Themba Technology Ltd.)E-mail: [email protected]: +44 (0)20 7594 7315

21-Jul-05 [email protected] 2

Overview

• Background: policy and science– context: UK Transport Sector

• System Boundaries– ~ baselines

• Coping with uncertainty– Whole Chain– Farm GHG emissions & Energy inputs

• Conclusions – Next steps?


Key References:

• UK-LCVP Consensus report (Rickeard et al, 2004: – ExxonMobil / British Sugar / Imperial College / North

Energy / CONCAWE/JRC rpt

• RTFs: Woods & Bauen (2003) and Mortimer et al (2003, 2004)…

• CSL Energy Crop – environmental footprint. (Turley et al, 2005)

• UK Transport Emissions Projections: DTI – Energy Paper 68 (in DfT, 2003)


UK Transport Sector Emissions Projections - High Energy Prices

UK Emissions Projections: 1990 to 2020'CH' Scenarion (Central GDP, High Energy Prices)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

MtC

Power Stations

Refineries

Residential

Services

Industry

Road Transport

Off-road

Other transport

Road Transport

Source: UK DTI. Energy Paper E98. 2002


Transport Emissions- Relentless Rise?

UK Emissions Share by Sector: 1990

35%

3%

13%5%

22%

19%

1%

2%

Power Stations

Refineries

Residential

Services

Industry

Road Transport

Off-road

Other transport

UK Emissions Share by Sector: 2010

25%

4%

15%

7%

21%

25%

1%

2%

Total: 159.3 MtC Total: 148.6 MtC

29.8 MtC36.9 MtC

20% reduction from 1990 would imply 2010 transport sector emissions of 24 MtC


Overview

• Background: policy and science– context: UK Transport Sector

• System Boundaries– ~ baselines

• Coping with uncertainty– Whole Chain– Farm GHG emissions & Energy inputs

• Conclusions – Next steps?


Scope• Based on Life-cycle environmental impacts

of wheat fermentation-based ethanol production and use in the UK.

• Base LCA ethanol production parameters on Rickeard et al. (2005),– Draw-up system models and derive system

boundaries for the evaluation– Evaluate the potential GHG and energy inputs

• Work started in September 2004


ATMOSPHERIC CO2ATMOSPHERIC CO2

Ethanol

CO2-Capture by Photosynthesise.g. Crop Growth

End Usee.g. combustion in vehicles

Carbon Capture & Sequestration

CO2

Gas Markets

Leakage?


Rape Biodiesel Process Flow Chart

Cultivation: 0.0267 ha

0.00015 kg seed

Transport, Drying & Storage

85.5 kg raw harvested rape seed 83.8

kg

Str

aw

15%

moi

stur

e

1.2

GJ

80.2 kg dried rape seed

267 m2 land required

0.51 GJ energy inputs

1.00 GJ energy outputs

Energy Ratio = 1.96

Includes co-product credits

28 kg CO2 emissions

45 kg GHG emissions

£ 32.6 per GJ RME

£26.75 / GJRME incl. Co-products

Extraction

26.6 kg crude rape oil

Refining

26.0 kg refined rape oil

Esterification

1GJ biodiesel (24.7 kg)

53.5

kg

Rap

e M

eal

X%

moi

stur

e

X M

J

2.5

kg

Gly

cerin

e

X M

J

Delivery to Vehicle

Key Parameters

per GJ biodiesel

Based on Mortimer et al. 2002


Assurance Pyramid

Principles

International Standard

Locally Applied Standard

Criteria

Indicators

MEASURE-MENTS

PRECISIONCO

NSEN

SUS

Adapted from: Jim Smith, BSI Professional Standards Services (his presentation to LCVP on 18Feb05)


Dealing with Uncertainty• N2O emissions from agriculture

• CH4 emissions from agriculture

• Land-use change:– Changes in Biomass Stock (deforestation)– Changes in soil carbon (e.g. grassland)


Land-use change: deforestation

‘… where deforestation has occurred, one-off emissions in the range of 200 to 1000 t CO2 /hectare associated with the combustion and/or rapid decomposition of above-ground biomass[1] will negate any GHG benefits from the production of biofuels for a period of at least 50 years.’

[1] IPCC Good Practice Guidelines for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry, 2000, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.


Land-use change: UK agriculture‘… According to DETR (1997), soils in England, Wales and Scotland

contain some 21.78 billion tonnes of carbon, of which 16.4 GtC is in Scottish peat uplands[1], leaving 5.4BtC (19.8 Gt CO2) in the soil of the remaining UK land where agriculture is the primary land use. Most of this is contained in grasslands. Arable soils in the UK contain 592 MtC (2.17GtCO2; Smith et al).’

According to Edwards,R. (JRC, 2004):‘Grassland has 49 to 54 tonnes/ha higher soil C (180 to 198

tCO2/ha) content than a wheat-field with straw ploughed back.’

[1] Soil Assoc. (2005) quoting: Indicators of Sustainable Development in the UK, DETR, 1997.


N2O & CH4 emissions

‘Variability arises from the dependence on the processes that form them, such as denitrification and nitrification and anaerobic decay, on the prevailing physical, climatic and environmental conditions. In the case of nitrous oxide, emissions are also dependant upon the amount of N fertiliser addition to the land[1]’

[1] ‘IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001’, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001.


N2O emissions

JRC - UK FIGURES WHEATFERTILIZED GRASSLAND

wheat - grass

grass/ wheat

Best estimate kg N2O per ha per year 4.361 1.566 2.795 0.36min (80% confidence) 3.190 1.540 1.650 0.48

max 5.707 1.591 4.116 0.28

CSL (Turley,D.) quoting: Winter Wheat Spring Barley Potatoes Grazed Grassland Cut GrasslandSmith et al. 1998 kg N2O/ha.yr 0.30 0.80 1.35 1.90 8.00 1.50 3.00

Russer et al. Wheat Maize Potatoes Set-aside; unfert perennial grasses3.64 2.41 6.93 0.29

Note:L. Brown et. al. Atmospheric Environment 36 (2002) 917-928]

confirms modelling at JRC, that the N2O release during fallow setaside amounts to about 30% of the release from wheat farming. However, their N2O release figures for wheat in UK is about 1.3 kgN2O/ha.yr, compared with 4.36 from the rather similar JRC


On Farm GHG Emissions

kgCO2eq/ha - No straw removal

11% 1%

1%

40%

1%

5%

41%

Diesel for Cultivation

K fertiliser

P fertiliser

N fertiliser

Pesticides

Seed Material

N2O emissions

kgCO2eq/ha - With straw removal

11% 2%

1%

40%

1%

4%

41%


K fertiliser

P fertiliser

N fertiliser

Pesticides

Seed Material

N2O emissions

• N2O emissions set at JRC/LCVP levels:• No Straw Removal: 4.36 kg N2O/ha.yr• With Straw Removal: 5.96 kg N2O/ha.yr

Total On Farm GHG emissions:3119 kgCO2eq/ha.yr



On Farm GHG Emissions


11% 1%

1%

40%

1%

5%

41%


K fertiliser

P fertiliser

N fertiliser

Pesticides

Seed Material

N2O emissions


16%

1%

1%

57%

1%

7%

17%


K fertiliser

P fertiliser

N fertiliser

Pesticides

Seed Material

N2O emissions



• N2O emissions set at:• JRC/LCVP: 4.36 kg N2O/ha.yr • Brown et al.: 1.30 kg N2O/ha.yr


Farm level calculation tool: inputs

Wheat production inputsCase LCVP -

Reference Values

Straw ploughed

back

All straw removed

Diesel for cultivationConsumption litres/ha 140.5 140 170Agrochemicals and fertilizersUsage kg/ha K fertilizer (as K) 46 46 164 P fertilizer (as P) 41 41 53 N fertilizer (as N) 185 185 253 Pesticides (as active ingredient) 2 4.37 5 Seed material 185 185 185N2O Emissions kg/ha 4.36 4.36 5.96


Farm level calculation tool: outputs

Gp/ha Kg CO2eq/ha Gp/ha Kg CO2eq/haDiesel for Cultivation 4.730 356.6 6.071 450.2K fertiliser 0.428 21.0 1.523 74.8P fertiliser 0.648 29.1 0.842 37.8N fertiliser 7.511 1238.0 10.271 1693.0Pesticides 1.198 23.6 1.371 27.0Seed Material 2.498 160.4 2.498 160.4N2O emissions 1290.6 1764.2Total Farm 17 3119 23 4207Rest of Chain 50.466 3024.4 52.563 411.0% Total Chain 25% 51% 30% 91%

Straw ploughed back All straw removed


Overview

• Background: scientific basis for action

• Scope of the study– System boundaries

• Key study findings– GHG and Energy Balances– Carbon saving costs for sequestration

• Conclusions & realism


Potential Impacts for Ethanol-based CO2 Capture

GHG Emissions GHG Emissions

WTT*** WTT***

Kg CO2eq / GJ

EtOH g CO2eq / km % of petrol Kg CO2eq / GJ EtOH

g CO2eq /

km % of petrol

26.3 53 27.4% -1.77 -4 -2.1%22.9 46 23.8% -5.1 -10 -6.1%

26.3 78 40.9% -1.77 -4 -2.1%22.9 73 38.1% -5.1 -10 -6.1%

26.3 165 86.1% -1.77 -4 -2.1%22.9 165 85.9% -5.1 -10 -6.1%

Notes: * - BECS (BioEnergy with Carbon Sequestration)** - 2 MJ per km = 39 MPG petrol*** - WTT 'Well (or field) to Tank' - WTW 'Well (or field) to Wheel'.

Straw + Boiler

E100 Without BECS*

E85 Without BECS

Natural Gas Boiler + Heat RecoveryStraw + Boiler

E100 With BECSENERGY BASISEnergy Supply Model for fermentation & distillation plant

Natural Gas Boiler + Heat RecoveryStraw + Boiler

E85 With BECSNatural Gas Boiler + Heat Recovery

2 MJ per km (WTW***)2 MJ per km (WTW***)

E10 Without BECS E85 With BECS

Car Performance Indicators35.00 MPG 40.00 MPG 2.000 MJ/km

9.25 M/lpetrol 10.57 M/lpetrol 38.76 MPG0.067 lpetrol/km 0.059 lpetrol/km 10.24 M/lpetrol2.215 MJ/km 1.938 MJ/km 0.061 lpetrol/km

160 gCO2 per km 140 gCO2 per km 144 gCO2 per km192 gCO2eq per km 168 gCO2eq per km 173 gCO2eq per km


Policy Options

• Government-based– E.g. UK RTFO

• International– E.g. International BioEnergy Programme (IBEP)

• Assurance and Certification


UK – RTFO (Possible Mechanism Overview) 15/04/2004

UK BIOFUEL OBLIGATION MODELObligationPump Effect PPl £0.057

UK ProducerObligation £27.2 Existing Crop Balance (000te) Wheat RapeFund Millions Agricultural Inputs Exports 3404 179

Ethanol Bio Diesel1438 68

m litres m litresUK "Transport Fuel Pool" Duty £0.49 Premium

Market Mil Litres £0.10 273 M Lit Set Aside plus 0.5M HaGasoline 27519 Biofuel Supply 0.5M Ha UnusedDiesel 20150 Bioethanol £0.38 each

Biodiesel £0.38 (000te)TaxOffice Wheat or Rape

Obligation 2000 8751.0% Duty Rebate Buyout Price Ethanol m litres Bio Diesel

545 M Lit £0.20 £0.10 845 331

Importer Refiner

Gasoline £0.12Diesel £0.16

Bioethanol £0.26Biodiesel £0.31 Comparitive Cost of meeting Obligation

Product Product Duty Obligation TotalGasoline £0.12 £0.49 0.10 £0.71Imports-E £0.26 £0.29 0.10 £0.65

Import Value UK Ethanol £0.38 £0.29 -0.10 £0.57UK £0.06Germany -£0.19 Diesel £0.16 £0.49 0.10 £0.75

Duty "Cost" Imports-BD £0.31 £0.29 0.10 £0.70Energy £109 (£M) UK Biodiesel £0.38 £0.29 -0.10 £0.57Equivalence 0.8

Innovation

Non-CO2 emissions

Indoor air pollution

Access to affordable energy

Carbon substitution

Economic development

Industry Administration

Development costs

Watershed management

Biomass

Carbon seqestration

Soil protection

Farmers associations

Land-use administration

Agriculture/Forestry Administration

Soil Degradation

Land Competition

Pesticide & Nutrient Leaching

SME

Households

Energy transmission, transportation & sale

Industry

Energy Administration

Science

International Organisations

NGOs

Transaction costs

Costs

Actors

Benefits

Resources Conversion & Products End-use

Farm workers, Landless

Employment

Export & Competition

Environment Administration

Source: International Bioenergy Programme- 2005; Jurgens, I. (FAO)


BioEnergy ActionThrough International Consensus:

BuildingNational and Regional Biomass Task Forces

Pillar I

Bioenergy Information

System

Pillar II

Mobilising Bioenergy

FAO-Bioenergy

Task 7

Information

Task 1

Potentials

Task 2

Sustainability

Task 3

i-BIS Portal

Task 4

Capacity & Stakeholders

Task 5

Wood EnergyAgro EnergyCo-Products

Partnerships

Task 6

International BioEnergy Programme (I-BEP)


Conclusions

• Uncertainty dominates?• Biomass is not carbon neutral

– Particularly biofuels

• Co-product allocation / poly-generation– How to allocate GHG emissions between multiple

outputs?

• Highly heterogeneous variables e.g. N2O• Can remote sensing and better GIS succeed?

– What resolution?

• Is Assurance and Certification THE answer?


Conclusions – Final

• Implications for CDM?

• Future technologies – e.g. lignocellulosics– Do we need them?

• What can QUEST do?


I THANK YOU!China-17 September 2004

biofuels: lca and the cdm - how you make it matters - quest workshop – sustainable forestry &...

Documents

mtc slide

gj energy inputs

gj energy outputs energy

18feb05 slide

energy inputs work

dti energy paper

seed transport

uncertainty n2o emissions