Biofuels out to 2050 in North America

Supply and LogisticsHow much biomass

What types of biomassWhere will it be produced

How will it get to the consumer

. Edward M.W. Smeets, André P.C. Faaij, Iris M. Lewandowski, Wim C. Turkenburg, A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050. (In Press: Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 2006).

Where will biomass supply come from

Biofuel productionKey questions for North America for 1st and 2nd generation

biofuels

• Where will the feedstocks come from: conventional, crop and forestry residue, purposely grown bioenergy annual and annuals?

• Will there need to be land use changes?• Food, feed and fiber demands on resources• What will the logistics be?• Changes in agricultural practices; particularly animal

husbandry affects on land availability• How will yield changes affect options available?

Jelle Bruinsma THE RESOURCE OUTLOOK TO 2050:1BY HOW MUCH DO LAND, WATER AND CROP YIELDS NEED TO INCREASE BY 2050?,Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Economic and Social Development Department , 24-26 June 2009, Rome

Productivity is improving but food demand is expected to increase by 70% by 2050

Jelle Bruinsma THE RESOURCE OUTLOOK TO 2050:1BY HOW MUCH DO LAND, WATER AND CROP YIELDS NEED TO INCREASE BY 2050?,Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Economic and Social Development Department , 24-26 June 2009, Rome

Arable land under production is mainly increasing in developing world and has been for a long time

Potential sources to be considered

1. Increased production of food crops beyond needs and use of excess for fuel

2. Improvements in Animal husbandry freeing pasture lands for energy crops

3. Sustainable use of excess forestry production and residues

4. Conversion of abandoned and degraded farm land to energy crops

Biofuels Group Work Plan and projected costs

• Prepare current literature summaries on the key issues relating to biofuels production($25,000)

• Develop expert teams to predict the future states for these issues

• Utilize biomass supply prediction model, developed by ISU using USDA county level ag statistics, to predict future local biomass supplies($10,000)

• Using GIS tools predict local logistical needs for biomass and biofuel transportation($10,000)

Topical report areas:• Global food, feed and fiber needs: agriculture and

forestry currently are engaged in meeting these needs. Biofuel production is creating a huge new and growing demand on agriculture. We need a good understanding of what the future holds for these uses and also how they might change by changes in diet of both humans and animals. A good summary of the latest publication on this including those by the USDA and FAO will be required. Also an idea of what role US agriculture needs to play in global demand. Will the percent of our crops exported remain constant or change?

Topical report areas:

• How will forestry and crop yields improve out to 2050?

• What is the potential production yields of bioenergy crops be out to 2050?

• How much forestry and crop residue can be sustainably removed?

• What logistics will be required for biomass? How far can it be transported either to a densification or conversion site and still be sustainable

GIS based model

Acreage available for agriculture and forestry. Total food feed and fiber production. Excess food

feed and fiber production. Bioenergy crop production

available.Crop residue production

available. Woody biomass residue available

Amount produced per grid and logistics per grid

Localtotal acreage

Local active farmland

active farmland crop yields

abandoned farm land

Local Crops produced

Active pasture land

degraded land

Food needs

Feed needs

Animal husbandry practices

transportation

Future crop yields

Future forestry yields

Fiber needs

Bioenergy crop yield relative to local crop

% Local crop residue

Future forestry residue

Total conventional crop available for bioenergy per grid

Total bioenergy crop available for bioenergy per grid

Total forestry available for bioenergy per grid

Total conventional crop residue available for bioenergy per grid

Total forestry residue available for bioenergy per grid

Total logistics per grid

Total lignocellulose

Potential size of conversion or densification plant

Logistics needed to reach population needs

outputs

Ag statistic based inputs

extrapolations

Planned output

• US agricultural and forestry areas needed to supply food, feed and fiber needs

• Potential biomass available for biofuels• The best mix of crop residue, energy crops to

supply biofuels • Local production maps and logistics associated

with this production

Food needs Feed needs Animal husbandry practices

Future crop yields

Future forestry yields

Fiber needs Bioenergy crop yield relative to local crop

% Local crop residue available

Future forestry residue available

FAO Cargil ADM, Mike Cecava

Pioneer WeyerhaueserLinda Beltz

WeyerhaueserLinda Beltz

Ceres,Spenser Swayze

Iowa State, John Mirinowski

Edwin WhiteSUNY

Iowa State, John Mirinowski

USDA USDA Monsanto Ralph CavaleriWashington State U

Ralph CavaleriWashington State U

Farm Bureau Assoc

Farm Bureau Assoc

Dow Agroscience

Edwin WhiteSUNY

WeyerhaueserLinda Beltz

GMA

UC Davis

Expertise needed to develop assumptions

Other questions we might want to answer

• What will be the equilibrium price for energy crops versus food crops versus barrel of oil equivalent value?

• What types of investments are needed to improve agriculture production in developing world?

• What infrastructure needs to be built to minimize energy need for logistics of biomass