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Biological Ramifications of Climate-Change Mediated Oceanic Multi-Stressors !
Scott Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Phil Boyd (U. Tasmania), Sinikka Lennartz (GEOMAR), & David Glover (WHOI)
Supported by:
Southern Ocean Dynamics & Biogeochemistry
Workshop Caltech, Feb. 2015
Climate Change Drivers!
Plankton Response to Multiple Environmental Drivers!
Boyd & Hutchins, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Series, 2012
Talk Outline!Earth System Model Projections: • multiple stressor trends • regional variability
Guide design & interpretation of field/lab manipulation studies
Surface Warming!
Ensemble of CMIP5 Coupled Climate-Carbon Models Bopp et al. Biogeosciences 2013
ΔSST
0.0
2.0
-1.0
4.0
1900 2000 2100
CESM1(BGC) Δ (2100 – 2000)
Moore et al., J. Climate 2013 Boyd et al., Nature Climate Change 2015
Physical Drivers!
Δ 2100 - 2000
CESM1(BGC)
Moore et al., J. Climate 2013 Boyd et al., Nature Climate Change 2015
Biogeochemical Drivers!
Δ 2100 - 2000
CESM1(BGC)
Moore et al., J. Climate 2013 Boyd et al., Nature Climate Change 2015
Present-Day Southern Ocean Iron Budget Terms!
Misumi et al. Biogeosciences 2014
Divergence/Convergence terms for: • Horizontal
advection • Vertical
advection • Mixing • External
forcing dust & sediments
Positive is net source
Net Primary Productivity!
Bopp et al. Biogeosciences 2013
ΔNPP
1900 2000 2100
0%
20%
8%
10%
Δ NPP
Declining Seasonal Sea-ice along Peninsula!
Sharon Stammerjohn U Colorado Boulder
Stammerjohn et al. Geophysical Research Letters 2012
3.3 months shorter
2.6 months longer
(1979/80 – 2010/11)
Decadal Change in Surface Chlorophyll
Montes et al. Science (2009)
Ecological Changes to Retreating Sea-Ice!
Courtesy Zina Deretsky, NSF
-Sea ice melt stabilizes upper ocean and fosters phytoplankton growth -Long sea ice duration acts as a barrier to light penetration and prevents growth
Effects on Growth & Community Structure!Small Phytoplankton
Growth Rate Diatom
Growth Rate
Marinov et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2013
Ocean Acidification!
Bopp et al. Biogeosciences 2013
Δsurface pH
0.0
-0.4
0.1
1900 2000 2100
-0.2
CESM1(BGC) Δ (2100 – 2000)
Moore et al., J. Climate 2013 Boyd et al., Nature Climate Change 2015
Ocean Acidification!
CESM1(BGC)
Moore et al., J. Climate 2013 Boyd et al., Nature Climate Change 2015
Boyd, Lennartz, Glover & Doney Nature Climate Change 2015
Regional Climate Signals: “Climate Clusters”!
Global Trends vs. Regional Variation!
ΔSST ΔSST
ΔSST ΔSST
ΔFe
ΔSi(OH)4 ΔNO3
ΔpH
Nutrients log10([X])
global trend
Surface Stratification Factor (20%)
Nutrient Factor (26%)
T S MLD
PO4 NO3
Fe
Principal Component Analysis (PCA)!
Temperature-Growth Curves!
Boyd et al. PLoS One 2013
Interactive Effects of Multiple Environmental Drivers!
Rose et al. Biogeosciences 2009
Days
Boyd, Lennartz, Glover & Doney Nature Climate Change 2015
ΔpH <-0.35
ΔNPP <-100 mgC m-2 y-1 ΔSST >3.5 K O2 <50 mmol m-3
ΔO2 <-50 mmol m-3
Regional Variation in Multiple Stressors!
<-20 <50
Bopp et al. Biogeosciences 2013
Talk Outline!Earth System Model Projections: • multiple stressor trends • regional variability
Guide design & interpretation of field/lab manipulation studies
