Biomass Energy for Transport and Electricity: Large scale utilization Electricity: Large scale utilization

under low CO2 concentration scenarios

PW Luckow MA Wise JJ Dooley SH KimPW Luckow, MA Wise, JJ Dooley, SH KimCollege Park, MD

May 26, 2010

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Major Themes of Forthcoming Paper (Luckow Wise Dooley Kim)(Luckow, Wise, Dooley, Kim)

Importance of the land use policy for biomass energy to be an effective (and efficient) part of emissions mitigationbe an effective (and efficient) part of emissions mitigation

Revisit Science (Wise et al 2009) paper insights

U d t di l l bi d ti dUnderstanding very large scale biomass production and use and the difference from current experience

The use of biomass for liquid fuels and electricity under climate policy, and the importance of CCS

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Biomass and Land-Use PolicyOne of the clearest results from the Science paper (Wise et al 2009) was that a policy that valued carbon in energy but not in land could lead to runaway clearing of land for y gbiomass.

B t th lt th t i li h th bBut another result was that, in a policy where the carbon in land could be valued equally with the carbon in the energy system – bioenergy, including purpose grown crops could be an major component of CO mitigationcrops, could be an major component of CO2 mitigation

And when bioenergy is used in conjunction with CCS, it may be a key technology in achieving low CO2 concentrations.

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Valuing the Carbon in Land Use

When the carbon in land is valued equally with the carbon in the energy system the economic trade offs are efficientin the energy system, the economic trade-offs are efficient

Biomass would be grown only where the value of the g yenergy provided and the carbon mitigated in the energy system (including CCS) exceeds the carbon value (and any product) of using that land for of other purposes.

including maintaining or even expanding forested and other unmanaged lands for their terrestrial carbon value

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Bioenergy Feedstocks in the GCAMPurpose Grown, Dedicated Bioenergy Crops

For this study, we modeled a switchgrass crop with intrinsic yields specified by region (with diminishing returns when production p y g ( g pspreads to less productive lands)These crops compete for land with forest and other agriculture

Agricultural ResiduesAgricultural ResiduesPotential supply directly linked to the production of food, forest, and other crops modeled in GCAMCollection of that supply depends on prices of biomass andCollection of that supply depends on prices of biomass and erosion and land conservation factors (Gregg 2009)

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)Potential linked to regional economic activity (Greg 2009)Potential linked to regional economic activity (Greg 2009)Smaller amount than ag residues but still significant

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Modeling a large scale bioenergy production and distribution system

Collection and ProcessingPelletizing important to

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Pelletizing important to increase the energy density of the fuel and facilitate transportationAverage cost to transport toAverage cost to transport to local collection facility and pelletize of $2.18/GJ (2005$)

85% of cost is in pelletizingcompare to $1.33/GJ for Coal (Edwards).

International transport cost of $0.31/GJ (2005$) added to all$0.31/GJ (2005$) added to all regions (assumes large ocean bulk carriers)

(Van Vliet, 2009, consistent with Wolf 2006)

(Hamelinck, 2005)

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Bioenergy-derived electricity production

Many studies assume higher capital costs for Biomass y g pIGCC, due to smaller plant size (Brown 2009, RRI 2009, Williams et al. 2009)GCAM assumes small increased cost due to bulkGCAM assumes small increased cost due to bulk materials handling and lower energy density of biomass, but assumes that plant size would not be smaller since we have accounted for the cost of long distance transport g pof the biomass fuel (van Vliet 2009, Rhodes 2008)

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(IEA 2003, Rhodes 2008)

Production of Biomass-based liquid fuelsq

CO2 lost in processing (1-efficiency) is capturableCCS capture costs of $10 67 & $56 26 (2005$/tCO ) for high and lowCCS capture costs of $10.67 & $56.26 (2005$/tCO2) for high and low purity streams (Dooley/Dahowski)

• Ethanol • Fischer-TropschEthanolProduced from lignocellulose through saccharification and fermentation with the use of enzymes

pChemical reaction converts syngas to liquid fuelsCan also be used for coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids

Small (26%) fraction of high-purity CO2 at the scrubber vent, a result of fermentation (Aden)Remainder is in combustion exhaust,

i t t

qFor biomass-derived FT fuels, CCS costs identical to coal are usedRelatively large (81.8%) high purity stream resulting from syngas cleaning done even w/o

more expensive to captureg y g g

capture in order to improve reaction (Dooley & Dahowski, van Vliet)Remainder is a low purity stream from combustion of tail gas, more expensive to

tcapture

Modeling: 400 ppm and 450 ppm Concentration (Overshoot)(Overshoot)

Overshoot Cases; implications on timingimplications on timingThe Base assumes CCSThe Base (no CCS) is not i d d lik lintended as a likely scenario but an illustration of CCS importance

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Biomass ProductionBy 2050, tens of EJ of biomass produced per year in many regions, growing substantially by 2095Initially much of production is residue/MSW Much ofInitially much of production is residue/MSW. Much of growth by 2095 comes from dedicated biomass

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2050 2095400ppm, with CCS

Land UseGCAM considers all demands for land in an integrated economic framework, including food, forests, and biomassCarbon price has large impact of forest and crop land (see Wise 2009 for more detail)

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No policy 400ppm with ccs400ppm, with CCS

Where bioenergy will be used in the long-term depends on the technologies available, particularly CCS

out

SW

itho

CC

SW

CS

Wit

h C

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W

400ppm Reference Energy Technologies and CCS is not available

Electricity Transportation

CCS is not available

El t i it t T t ti tElectricity sector dominated by nuclear energyImmediate phase-out of

Transportation sector heavily reliant on bioenergyElectricity and conventional oil also play important roles

coal

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y

400ppm Reference Energy Technology Case with CCS Available throughout the economywith CCS Available throughout the economy

Electricity Transportation

The world relies on a much more balanced Conventional oil production remains The world relies on a much more balanced portfolio of low-carbon electricity generating optionsThe global deployment of biomass+CCS becomes significant after 2050

psteady at around current levelsBioenergy derived fuels meet much of the increased demand 12% of total in 2095

21% of total in 2095

Conventional coal (CO2 vented to the atmosphere) disappears well before the end of the century14

Electricity and natural gas are also important parts of the global transportation sector

400ppm Advanced Energy Technology Case with CCS Available throughout the economywith CCS Available throughout the economy

Global CO2 Emissions by Sector

Electricity sector emissions rapidly reduced, becoming

2 y

, gnegative from bio-ccsTransportation emissions relativelyemissions relatively constant, reflecting large continued contribution from fossil fuels

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400ppm Advanced Energy Technology Case CCS is not availableCCS is not available

Global CO2 Emissions by Sector

Electricity sector emissions rapidly reduced, going to

2 y

, g gzero (not negative)Transportation emissions rapidly reduced, as fossilreduced, as fossil fuels are completely phased out

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Carbon Price Results

Especially with BioCCS as an option the availability ofan option, the availability of CCS has a large impact on carbon prices required to hit low CO2 concentration 2levels.

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Large Plantation Scale Biomass Energy Production Is Economic in a Greenhouse Gas C t i d W ld

The fraction of the bioenergy price that accounts for the cost of collecting, transporting and delivering a uniform bioenergy commodity energy feedstock

Constrained World

uniform bioenergy commodity energy feedstock drops precipitously as the price of carbon permit prices rise

GCAM now explicitly accounts for the cost of biomass collection/ preparation (including dehydration, densification and pelletization) and long distance p ) gtransportation

Hamelinck, C. N., R. A. A. Suurs and A. P. C. Faaij (2005). "International bioenergy transport costs and energy balance." Biomass and Bioenergy, Volume 29(2): 114-134,ISSN 0961-9534,

Luckow P, MA Wise, JJ Dooley, and SH Kim. 2010. “Large Scale Utilization of Biomass and Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Energy in the Transport and Electricity Sectors under Stringent CO2 Concentration Limit Scenarios." Accepted for publication The International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. May 2010.

Concluding Remarks

Given an efficient policy for valuing carbon in land, biomass energy in conjunction with CCS could be a majorbiomass energy in conjunction with CCS could be a major component of achieving low concentration targets.Bio+CCS results in negative emissions which is very useful foruseful for

Offsetting emissions (like oil in transportation) that may be the most expensive to mitigateReducing concentrations in an overshoot scenarioReducing concentrations in an overshoot scenario

Under a climate policy, CCS should be deployed where possible (and economic) when biomass is used

Net zero emissions is not good enough economically and will be beaten out by net negative emissions systems.

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Conclusions (cont’d)

Percentage of energy-system biomass used in combination with CCS rises rapidly with carbon pricerapidly with carbon price

10% at $100/tC90% at $500/tC100% beyond $1000/tC

In the end, the two major biomass pathways, electricity and refining, are very similar and no single path with win out entirely

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ReferencesAden, A., M. Ruth, et al. (2002). "Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics

Utilizing Co-Current Dilute Acid Prehydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis for Corn Stover." Brown, D., M. Gassner, et al. (2009). "Thermo-economic analysis for the optimal conceptual design of

biomass gasification energy conversion systems." Applied Thermal Engineering 29(11-12): 2137-21522152.

Dooley, J. J. and R. T. Dahowski (2009). "Large-Scale U.S. Unconventional Fuels Production and the Role of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Technologies in Reducing Their Greenhouse Gas Emissions." Energy Procedia 1(1): 4225-4232.

Gregg, J. (2009). Spatial and Seasonal Distribution of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil-Fuel gg, ( ) pCombustion; Global, Regional, and National Potential for Sustainable Bioenergy from Residue Biomass and Municipal Solid Waste. Department of Geography. College Park, University of Maryland, College Park. PhD Dissertation.

Hamelinck, C. N., R. A. A. Suurs, et al. (2005). "International bioenergy transport costs and energy balance." Biomass and Bioenergy 29(2): 114-134.gy ( )

Research Reports International (2009). "Utility Use of Biomass: 2nd Edition." October 2009. Evergreen, Colorado. USA.

Rhodes, J. and D. Keith (2008). "Biomass with capture: negative emissions within social and environmental constraints: an editorial comment." Climatic Change 87(3): 321-328.

van Vliet, O. P. R., A. P. C. Faaij, et al. (2009). "Fischer-Tropsch diesel production in a well-to-wheel perspective: A carbon, energy flow and cost analysis." Energy Conversion and Management 50(4): 855-876.

Wise, M., K. Calvin, et al. (2009). "Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy " Science 324(5931): 1183 1186Energy. Science 324(5931): 1183-1186.

Wolf, A., A. Vidlund, et al. (2006). "Energy-efficient pellet production in the forest industry--a study of obstacles and success factors." Biomass and Bioenergy 30(1): 38-45.

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450ppm Reference Energy Technologies and CCS is not availableCCS is not available

Biomass Consumption by useThe inability to deploy CCS anywhere in the economy results in

p y

yBiomass being devoted to the transportation sectorRelatively littleRelatively little biomass is used to generate electricity

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450ppm Advanced Energy Technology Case with CCS Available throughout the economywith CCS Available throughout the economy

When CCSBiomass Consumption by use When CCS technologies are allowed to deploy throughout the global economy it has an

p y

economy, it has an impact on how bioenergy is usedIn 2095,

200 EJ f~200 EJ of bioenergy used to produce electricity~50 EJ of bioenergy goes to creating refined liquids

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450ppm Advanced Energy Technology Case with CCS Available throughout the economywith CCS Available throughout the economy

Bioenergy Production in 2095 (EJ/year by Region)

Southeast Asia

USA

Western EuropeMSW

Residue300

Dedicated

Bioenergy by feedstock

Japan

Korea

Latin America

Middle East

Southeast Asia Dedicated

150

200

250

J

Residue

MSW

China

Eastern Europe

Former Soviet Union

India

Japan

50

100

150E

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Africa

Autralia/NZ

Canada02005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60

450ppm Advanced Energy Technology Case with CCS Available throughout the economywith CCS Available throughout the economy

Global CO2 Emissions by Sector

Electricity sector emissions rapidly reduced, becoming

2 y

, gnegative from bio-ccsTransportation emissions relativelyemissions relatively constant, reflecting large continued contribution from fossil fuels

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Carbon Prices

Substantially increased costs without CCS availability

CO Concentration Carbon Price

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CO2 Concentration Carbon Price

Carbon prices drive bioenergy prices

Carbon Price Trajectories in Two CO2 Stabilization Scenarios

Carbon Price and Biomass Price in Two CO2 Stabilization Scenarios

Luckow P, MA Wise, JJ Dooley, and SH Kim. 2010. “Large Scale Utilization of Biomass and Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Energy in the Transport and Electricity Sectors under Stringent CO2 Concentration Limit Scenarios." Accepted for publication The International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. May 2010.

Bioenergy doesn’t need to be limited to marginal landsmarginal lands

Bioenergy Land, as a Fraction of TotalBioenergy Land, as a Fraction of Total Land, in 2050 in a Reference Scenario

Crop Land, as a Fraction of Total Land, in 2050 in a Reference Scenario

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