birchmere ventures market research presentation
DESCRIPTION
This presentation represents a semester long research and analysis project for a local Venture Capital firm named Birchmere Ventures. My group conducted extensive markest research and industry analysis on the current and future use of solar thermal technology.TRANSCRIPT
Solar Thermal EnergyMarket Maps
Project Overview
• Solar Thermal - Utility Scale Electricity Generation• Solar Thermal Applications• Cost Analysis•Solar Thermal Collectors - Residential• Costs and Savings• Tax and Rebate Incentives•Potential Opportunities• Examples of Companies
Electricity Generation Power Towers Dish System Parabolic Trough
Illustration
Current Power Output
11 megawatts 1 megawatts 80 megawatts
2020 Future Power Output
200+ megawatts 900+ megawatts 350+ megawatts
Longevity Long term (30 yrs) Medium term (20 yrs) Medium term (20 yrs)2006 Baseline
LCOE.18 $/kWh .50 $/kWh .12 $/kWh
2020 Future LCOE .055 $/kWh .065 $/kWh .05 $/kWh
Technology Development Risk
Medium High Low
Market Maturity Low Low Medium
Pros
> Energy Storage> High Conversion Efficiency> Hybrid Fossil Operation
> Dispatchable Operation > Greatest Conversion Efficiency> Hybrid Fossil Operation
> High Commercial Availability > Mature Technology> Hybrid Fossil Operation
Cons
> Sensitive to Economies of Scale > Extensive Land & Water Resources Needed
> Least Mature Technolgy > Expensive Power Conversion Technology
> High Operating & Maintance Costs> Sensitive to Economies of Scale
Major Companies> eSolar> BrightSource
> Stirling Energy Systems > Ausra> Acciona
Niche Companies
> Abengoa - molten salt heat transfer fluid/thermal energy storage
> RawSolar Inc - flexes flat mirror into parabolic shape w/o tooling or skilled labor> Brayton Energy - micro turbine, Brayton cycle engine
> SkyFuel - “ReflecTech” mirrored lining, stronger & cheaper than glass & mirrors
BV opportunity? No - solar technology market capital intensive, small, and concentrated
No - Stirling Energy Systems dominates utility scale up
No - solar technology & niche markets mature
Electricity Generation
Cost Analysis Power Towers Dish System Parabolic Trough
Illustration
% Reduction to 2020 LCOE
69.4% 87.0% 58.3%
Components Cost Reduction
> Solar Field - 60%> O&M - 80%> Indirect - 70%> Tower - 50%> Storage - 77.2%
> O&M - 93.3%> Indirect - 90%> BCP - 50%> PCU - 93.8%> Dish - 73.1%
> Solar Field - 60%> TES & HTF - 40%>PB & BOS - 20%> Indirect - 50%> O&M - 80.7%>Tax/Insurance - 58.3%
Major Companies Supporting Cost Reduction
> Alcoa - optimization of reflector weight, structure joint design, and increased reflector stiffness> Rocketdyne - molten salt pump and reciever panel
> Infinia - 6 Cylinder maintenance free stirling engine> Genei -lowest cost and most efficient solar concentrator mirrors
> 3M - cleanable, hardcoat coatings for increase durability of mirrors> PPG - inorganic mirror coating to protect from chemical attack
BV Opportunity in Component Cost Reduction
Yes:> Heliostat/mirror efficiency> Thermal energy storage (heat transfer fluid) system development
Yes:> Power Control Unit technology development> Dish and mirror design materials
Yes:> Thermal energy storage (heat transfer fluid) system development > Cost reduction: alternative mirror design, non metallic structural elements
Energy Storage Needed for 2020 LCOE
Yes Yes Yes
BV Opportunity in Energy Storage ?
Yes:> Advanced tower piping to eliminate drag valves in down flow pipe> Higher temp molten salt to improve cycle performance
Yes:> Foundation cooling system> optimize the overall tank configuration
Yes:> Improved tank venting and better instrumentation
Cost Analysis
2006 Baseline 2011 Target 2020 Target$0.00$0.02$0.04$0.06$0.08$0.10$0.12$0.14
Trough Based Solar Thermal
Solar Field
TES & HTF
PB & BOS
Indirect
O&M
Taxes + Insurance
Year
Real
LCO
E (2
005
$/kW
h)
2005 Benchmark 2011 Target 2020 Target$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
Dish Based Stirling Engine
O&MIndirectBCPPCUDish
Year
Real
LCO
E (2
005
$/kW
h)
Flat-plate collectorIntegral collector-storage
systemsEvacuated-tube solar
collector
Illustration
Applications Residential Residential Residential but mostly
commercial
Temperature Low (less than 180°F) Medium (less than 200°F) High (170°F to 350°F )
UsesFlat plates for hot water, pool heating and space
heating
Connected to tanks for hot water systems
Evacuated-glass tubes for hot water and space heating
Key Considerations
More efficientShould be installed only in mid-freeze climates, more
reliable
Efficient (less heat loss), more fragile
Longevity 20+ 25+20+ requires more
maintenance
Types/Applications
> Liquid flat-plate collector> Air flat-plate collector> Residential Use
> Active System (Forced Circulation) > Passive Systems (ICS, Thermosyphon, Self-pumping)> Residential Use
> Heating and Cooling applications > Commercial and industrial uses
Solar Thermal Collectors
Costs and Savings•Considerations for all systems:• A south-facing roof that gets ample amounts of sunlight between 9
am and 3 pm• Need space for equipment
• ICS systems needs to be located by hot water heater• Need adequate room for the panels (awning, on the ground, or
on a garage)•Costs:• One time initial upfront cost of the system• Maintenance costs are typically low, more attention needed for
Evacuated-tube solar collector• Depends on physical size of house and number of people that live
in it• Ex) A family of four will probably require two 4-feet by 10-feet
solar collectors and a tank with 70- to 140- gallon capacity. •Savings:• Immediate reductions in monthly utility bills• Substitution for a portion of the power that customers use
• Can replace up to 80% of your energy needs for heating• Savings for a family of four
• Systems can save up to $300 per year• For a $4500 system, it would be a 15-year payback
•Further Savings can be attributed to tax incentives and rebates which can significantly reduce initial costs and significantly increase the savings
Tax and Rebate Incentives•Federal Stimulus Package includes more incentives for solar• 30 percent tax credit for home owners buying certain
heating and cooling equipment • Grants for offsetting 30 percent of the cost of installing a
solar energy system at a home•Federal Tax Credits for Energy Efficiency• Tax credits for existing homes & new construction are
available at 30% of the cost, with no upper limit through 2016 (Energy Economic Stabili zation Act of 2008)
•Depends on the state that you reside in• Ex) San Diego, CA, offers a local rebate, larger tax credit• Ex) Florida charges no sales tax on solar systems• Ex) North Carolina and Virginia exempt the additional
value of solar systems from property tax.
Inflatable Concentrator
CoolEarth already raised $21 million in its Series A financing
Opportunity for VC Birchmere to get involved at second round of financing
at least 15 times less per collected area than any other solar energy systems
Cost
strong enough to support a person's weight aerodynamically stable transparent upper surface protects the PV
Inflated Structure
www.coolearthsolar.com
Heliostat
Reflector area 8 ft2 (0.74 m2)Weight 20 lbs (9 kg) includes mirror frame and heliostat housingElectrical power consumption < 100 milliwatts (0.1 watts) average; < 1 watt-hour/dayRotational limit +/- 60 degrees Azimuth; +50 / -5 degrees AltitudeOperating temperature range -20°C to +50°C (-4°F to 122°F)Operating humidity range 0-100% relative humidityMaximum wind speed (operation) 80 kilometers / hour (≈ 50 MPH)Maximum wind speed (structural) 150 kilometers / hour (≈ 90 MPH)
Thermal Energy 600 watts
Cost Control system: $345Heliostat: $995
www.practicalsolar.com
Organic Solar Concentrator
www.covalentsolar.com
• Enhance solar modules
• Construction integration• Roof Windows• Skylights• Curtain Walls
Applications
Any Questions?
Thank You