8/13/2019 Blackrock Investment Institute, 2014 Investment Outlook, Dec 2013. "Squeezing out more Juice"

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FMHGAVLGA

KEYDWZNDEZ

KEWZKZTZD

WXTDD_KEB LTZ NLVD OTKGD638: KEYDWZNDEZ LTZMLLA

JDGDNFDV 6387

8/13/2019 Blackrock Investment Institute, 2014 Investment Outlook, Dec 2013. "Squeezing out more Juice"

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Q 6 ^ W X T D D _ K E B L T Z N L V D O T K G D

R`ht Ks Keskjd

Z`d lpkekles dxprdssdj hrd hs li

Jdgdnfdr 6387 hej nhy g`hebd hs

sufsdqudet glejktkles vhry.

KEZVLJTGZKLE .........................................................................................................74 Wunnhry ..........................................................................................................7

Ikrst Rlrjs ........................................................................................................:

638: Wgdehrkls ..................................................................................................4

Z@DNDW ..........................................................................................................................988 Brlwt` ..........................................................................................................92

Nhradts .........................................................................................................0;

Vksas ..........................................................................................................8388

VDBKLEW .....................................................................................................................868; Tektdj Wthtds ............................................................................................ 8687

Durlpd .......................................................................................................8:84

Ohphe ...............................................................................................................89

G`keh ..........................................................................................................8280

Dndrbkeb Nhradts ...........................................................................................8;

WL R@HZ JL K JL RKZ@ N[ NLED[<

Fkb Skgturd

} @dmkglptdr Ykdw?Rd bdedrhmmy prdidr dquktkds lvdr flejs, phrtkgumhrmy

ke lur fhsd ghsd Mlw ilr Mlebdrsgdehrkl.

} Vksa ke Whidty?Dquktkds hej flejs hrd fdglnkeb nlrd glrrdmhtdj.

Z`ks ks nhakeb shid plrtilmkls h mlt nlrd rksay.

} Hmtdrehtkvd Ndeu?Keirhstrugturd, rdhm dsthtd hej lt`dr hmtdrehtkvds

hrd rdhm jkvdrskdrshej liidr httrhgtkvd ykdmjs ke h mlw-rhtd wlrmj.

} Ylmhtkmkty le Whmd?Kt ks fdttdr tl fuy he unfrdmmh fdilrd t`d rhke.

Ylmhtkmkty ks g`dhp hej nhey hssdts hrd dxpdeskvd.

Dquktkds

} Dqukty Yhmud?Dquktkds hrd elt g`dhpfut t`dy hrd elt (ydt) ke fuffmd

tdrrktlry. Rd bdedrhmmy ihvlr Durlpd hej Ohphe le vhmuhtkle.

} [kdmj Ghutkle?TW ykdmj pmhys wkmm wrdstmd wkt` tkb`tdr mkqukjkty. Jkvkjdej

brlwdrs stkmm liidr pltdetkhm, hs jl ele-TW jkvkjdej phydrs.

} Dndrbkeb Kjdh?Lur gletrhrkhe kjdh ks tl lvdrwdkb`t dndrbkeb stlgas vs.

jdvdmlpdj. Fd sdmdgtkvd hej ihvlr kejkrdgt dxplsurds (numtkehtklehms).

Ikxdj Keglnd

} Ghrry Le?Nhey flejs stkmm mlla dxpdeskvd hej rksay (dspdgkhmmy

blvdrendet jdft). Bl ilr ghrry (ykdmj) ke h fhrfdmm strhtdby.

} Gurvd Smhys?Mlw rhtds supplrt s`lrt nhturktkds. Zhpdrkeb idhrs `hvd

`hnndrdj nhey mleb-tdrn flejs fhga tl rdhslehfmd vhmuhtkles.

} Fdwhrd Zrhig Ohns?Dhsy tl bdt ketl, `hrj tl bdt lut li. Mkqukjkty glumj

jry up ihst ke slnd grdjkt nhradtsw`de ylu eddj kt nlst.

TW Ikehegkhm Hjvkslrs? Nlrd keskb`ts ke638: Lutmlla? Z`d Mkst.

Dwde Ghndrle Rhtt

G`kdi Kevdstndet Wtrhtdbkst,

FmhgaVlga Kevdstndet Kestktutd

Sdtdr Iks`dr

Wdeklr Jkrdgtlr, FmhgaVlga

Kevdstndet Kestktutd

Fdeohnke Frljsay

Bmlfhm @dhj li FmhgaVlga Ikxdj

Keglnd Hssdt Hmmlghtkle

Vkga Vkdjdr

G`kdi Kevdstndet Liikgdr, FmhgaVlga

Iuejhndethm Ikxdj Keglnd

Ekbdm Flmtle

G`kdi Kevdstndet Liikgdr, FmhgaVlga

Ketdrehtklehm Iuejhndethm Dqukty

Vuss Aldstdrkg`

FmhgaVlgas Bmlfhm G`kdi

Kevdstndet Wtrhtdbkst

https://www2.blackrock.com/webcore/litService/search/getDocument.seam?source=LITMOD&contentId=27825&venue=PUB_INDhttps://www2.blackrock.com/webcore/litService/search/getDocument.seam?source=LITMOD&contentId=27825&venue=PUB_IND

8/13/2019 Blackrock Investment Institute, 2014 Investment Outlook, Dec 2013. "Squeezing out more Juice"

3/20

6 3 8 : K E Y D W Z N D E Z L T Z M L L A Q 7 ^

} Rd hrd ketrljugkeb t`rdd edw kevdstndet sgdehrkls ilr

638: hbhkest h fhgajrlp li mlw elnkehm brlwt` hej

nhradts jrkvde fy nledthry plmkgy g`lkgds. Mlw ilr

Mlebdr, lur fhsd ghsd wkt` h 44% prlfhfkmkty, idhturdstdpkj dglelnkg brlwt` hej mllsd ehegkhm glejktkles.

Lur fumm ghsd (64%), Brlwt` Frdhalut, `hs dglelnkg

hgtkvkty hggdmdrhtkeb hej mkqukjkty brhjuhmmy tkb`tdekeb.

Lur fdhr sgdehrkl (63%), Knfhmhegds Zkp Lvdr, `kb`mkb`ts

t`d nhey t`kebs t`ht glumj bl (vdry) wrleb.

} Rd hrd mkvkeb ke h mlw-brlwt` wlrmj t`ht ks smlwmy rdturekeb

tl elrnhmgyki wd hrd mugay. Rd dxpdgt TW BJS brlwt`

tl tkptld tl hrluej 6.4% hs t`d knphgt li thx `kads hej

spdejkeb guts ihjds. Rd sdd t`d Durlzled dakeb lut

brlwt`fut elt delub` tl rdjugd jdft mlhjs. H smlwkeb

G`keh ks stkmm sdt tl fd h nholr gletrkfutlr tl bmlfhm brlwt`(ehegkhm sdgtlr rksas hrd kts wdha mkea). Rd hrd spmkt le

w`dt`dr Ohphes brlwt` pmhe wkmm wlra. Z`d bllj edws?

Jdvdmlpdj dglelnkds s`lumj hggdmdrhtd ke thejdn ilr

t`d rst tknd skegd 6383.

} Lur wlrry? Bmlfhm gdetrhm fheas nhy fd pus`keb le h strkeb.

Mlw elnkehm brlwt` gheelt fd slmvdj fy nledthry plmkgy

hmled. NXuhetkty (nledthry brlwt`) jlds elt hjjrdss

sakmms nksnhtg`ds, hbkeb plpumhtkles, mhflr nhradt rdj

thpd hej prltdgtklekst plmkgkds. Gdetrhm fheas ghe dhsd

slnd li t`d phkefut umtknhtdmy plmkgynhadrs nust

jdmkvdr strugturhm rdilrns tl fllst brlwt`.

} Mkqukjkty prlvkskle wkmm brlw nlrd smlwmy ke 638:hej

nhradts kevhrkhfmy ilgus le rhtds li g`hebd hs nug` hs

hfslmutd mdvdms. Rd dxpdgt t`d TW Idjdrhm Vdsdrvd tl

sghmd fhga kts flej purg`hsds, fut usd Mlw-ilr-Mlebdr

ilrdghsts, lr ilrwhrj bukjhegd, tl addp h mkj le

ketdrdst rhtds. Z`d Durlpdhe Gdetrhm Fheas (DGF)

fhmhegd s`ddt ks s`rkeakeb. Z`d Fhea li Debmhej nhy

rhksd plmkgy rhtds le dglelnkg strdebt`. Z`d Sdlpmds

Fhea li G`keh ks sdt tl tkb`tde smkb`tmy tl rdjugd t`d rksa

li h grdjkt fuffmd. Z`d rdgygmkeb li dndrbkeb nhradt

ilrdkbe dxg`hebd rdsdrvds ks smlwkeb.

7

AD[

SLKEZW

Lfvklus rksas hrd idw1 `kjjde

leds hrd pmdetkium. Fdwhrd li (wdmm-

ndhekeb) gdetrhm fheadrs, vlmhtkmkty

spkads hej rkskeb glrrdmhtkles.

638: ks t`d ydhr tl squddzd nlrd

oukgd lut li rksa hssdts. Fd rdhjy tl

jksghrj t`d irukt w`de kt sthrts

rueekeb jry.

Elnkehm brlwt` ks smubbks` hrluej

t`d wlrmjydt t`drd ks pltdetkhm

ilr upskjd surprksds hs sghm

hustdrkty ihjds.

Wunnhry } Z`dsd mkqukjkty-grknpkeb ndhsurds wkmm fd phrtmy liisdtfy t`d Fhea li Ohphes Bljzkmmh-skzdj hssdt purg`hsds.

Hej wd glumj sdd slnd ilrn li quhetkthtkvd dhskeb (XD)

irln he DGF wlrrkdj hflut jdsthtkle. Bdrnhe lpplsktkle

ks h rlhjfmlgauemdss t`d rksa li jdsthtkle dxphejs

fdylej Durlpds slut`dre tkdr.

} W`lumj wd wlrry hflut t`d Idjs (bdetmd) XD dxkt< Kt ks

elt blkeb tl fd h whma ke t`d phra, hs slnd plmkgynhadrs

wlumj mkad tl t`kea. Rd sdd kt nlrd hs h trkht`mle ke twkmkb`t.

H `dhmt`y jlsd li `unkmkty ks ke lrjdr. Z`d hfsdegd li h

prkgd-kesdesktkvd fuydr wkmm fd idmt. Slmkgy wlrjs (ilrwhrj

bukjhegd) rdpmhgkeb plmkgy jddjs (flej fuykeb) dquhms h

pkga-up ke rhtds hej gurrdegy vlmhtkmkty.

} Gurrdegkds nhttdrhej elt oust ilr hssdt rdtures ke h

phrtkgumhr gluetry. H wdhadr yde (g`dhpdr Ohphedsd

blljs) ks h jdsthtklehry ilrgd bmlfhmmy1 t`d Durlzled

eddjs h wdhadr durl tl dxplrt kts why lut li trlufmd1

hej h strlebdr TW jlmmhr prdssurds dndrbkeb nhradts.

Gurrdegkds wkmm grdhtd wkeedrs hejmlsdrs.

} Hs Mlw ilr Mlebdrbrkejs le, knfhmhegds brlw. Led ks

li phrtkgumhr ketdrdst tl us hs nledy nhehbdrs? t`d

pltdetkhm ilr nhradts tl lvdr`dht. Hrd wd t`drd ydt< Rd

jl elt t`kea sl. Krrhtklehm dxufdrhegd ghe mhst h mleb

tknd. Fut nug` plmkgy plwjdr `hs hmrdhjy fdde spdet,

hej wd wkmm fd le fuffmd whtg`. 638: ks t`d ydhr tl

squddzd lut nlrd oukgd irln nhradtshej fd rdhjy

tl jksghrj t`d irukt w`de kt sthrts rueekeb jry.

} Flejs `hvd mleb fdde dxpdeskvd. Z`d prlfmdn ilr stlgas?

Z`d eundrhtlr li t`d S/D rhtkl (prkgd) ks jrkvkeb rdtures,

elt t`d jdelnkehtlr (dhrekebs). Kevdstlrs `hvd ounpdjle t`d nlndetun trhkediidgtkvdmy fdttkeb ydstdrjhys

strhtdby wkmm wke hbhke tlnlrrlw. Vkskeb glrrdmhtkles

fdtwdde flejs hej stlgas hrd nhakeb wdmm-jkvdrskdj,

shid plrtilmkls rksakdr t`he t`dy hppdhr.

} Jkvdrskghtkle ks mkad kesurhegd? [lu jl elt eddj ktuetkm

ylu eddj kt. Gleskjdr hmtdrehtkvd kevdstndets ilr 638:.

Wlnd hrd rdhm jkvdrskdrs (ht mdhst ke t`dlry). Rd mkad nhradt

edutrhm iuejs hej strhtdbkds ilgusdj le `hrj hssdts

sug` hs keirhstrugturd. Z`d jlweskjd (kmmkqukjkty) hppdhrs

h ihkr prkgd ilr ueglrrdmhtdj rdtures ke h mlw-brlwt` wlrmj.

8/13/2019 Blackrock Investment Institute, 2014 Investment Outlook, Dec 2013. "Squeezing out more Juice"

4/20

Q : ^ W X T D D _ K E B L T Z N L V D O T K G D

Ikrst Rlrjs

Zdethtkvd skbes li dglelnkg brlwt`1 rdgdjkeb rksas1 pmdetkium,

edhrmy irdd mkqukjkty1 hej ehegkhm nhradts le rd? R`ht

whs elt tl mkad hflut t`d kevdstndet mhejsghpd ht t`d dej

li 6387