blackstone 2013 digital marketing review
DESCRIPTION
2013 Review of the Digital Marketing ecosystem.TRANSCRIPT
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January 2013
Digital Marketing Industry Review
Ken Allen Managing Director [email protected]
Rumena Manolova Associate [email protected]
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Blackstone 1
153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Table of Contents
I. Executive Summary 2
II. Industry Themes 7
III. M&A Perspectives 39
Appendix 51
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I. Executive Summary
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Summary Observations I. Executive Summary
The Digital Marketing sector continues to evolve, and is becoming increasingly strategic to a large number of ecosystem players.
The Digital Marketing Ecosystem Continues to Undergo a Significant Transformation
Multi-decade transition from analog to digital
Audience-centric, cross-channel, data-driven, real-time
Growth in the Digital Marketing Industry is Being Driven by a Number of Important Trends
Mobile, Social, Video, Audience Targeting / RTB, and Data / Analytics are critical capabilities that have gained strategic importance in recent years
The Above Trends Have Catalyzed a Significant Wave of Consolidation in the Industry
Leading strategic acquirers seeking growth have gained access to these capabilities through inorganic expansion
Stack convergence is resulting in unified, multi-channel offerings fueled by data and analytics
Consolidation / M&A Will Continue to Define the New Digital Marketing Ecosystem
Larger players will continue to leverage M&A as a means to unify the product suite, ‘purchase R&D’, acquire talent, and, as a defensive measure, prevent strategic assets from falling into the wrong hands
Strategic M&A has become a core capability and a source of competitive advantage for many firms
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A Significant Shift Is Occurring in Online Marketing and Commerce Platforms
Marketing and eCommerce platforms are becoming increasingly integrated, supported by data and analytics, and processed in real time.
Purchase History
Intent Social Graph
Demo / Geo
Preferences / ‘Likes’
1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 . . . Data . . . 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1
How We Decide How We Buy
Multi-Channel Engagement
Multi-Channel Commerce
Ecommerce
Auctions
Comparison Shopping
Mobile Social
Flash Sales / Daily Deals
TV
Direct Mail Call Center
Point of Sale
Barcode
Digital Goods
Search
Display
Mobile Social
Local
Community
Branding
Radio
TV
I. Executive Summary
Behavioral
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The Online Channel Represents the Sole Growth Vector in the Global Advertising Market
While currently smallest in size, the Online advertising market is vastly outpacing other channels in terms of long-term growth.
________________________________________________
Source: Wall Street research, Bloomberg, eMarketer.
2011 Global Market Size ($bn) 2006 – 2011 CAGR Key Drivers and Themes
Online media becoming central pillar of advertisers’ marketing efforts Growth driven by increased Internet penetration, advanced technologies
(e.g., data analytics), and new forms of engagement (e.g., video) Advertisers demanding engagement across multiple screens
Persistent decline caused by secular disadvantages
Integration with digital channels (mobile, QR) and enhanced data analytics capabilities becoming critical
Renewed interest in Direct Mail led by financial services, retail, and automotive sectors
Rapid decline caused by secular disadvantages
Shift towards brochures, flyers, booklets, press kits; away from news
Increased integration with digital (QR, augmented reality, ambient)
Strength in local / national cable offset by decline in broadcast TV, radio, and outdoor broadcast
Rapid growth of online video and radio creating competitive pressure
+14%
2%
(5%)
(6%)
($5)
($169)
($125)
($116)
($87)
Global Market Size
Online, 18%
Direct, 34%
Print, 23%
$497bn
Broadcast, 25%
I. Executive Summary
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I. Executive Summary
Key Industry Growth Drivers
A number of important themes are driving growth in the Digital Marketing ecosystem.
Mobile
Social
Video
Audience Targeting / RTB
Data / Analytics
Consolidation / M&A
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
________________________________________________
Note: Digital Advertising Revenue refers to U.S. spending; $ in billions. Source: Business Insider, IAB, eMarketer, Blackstone.
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II. Industry Themes
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II. Industry Themes
Digital Marketing Industry Themes: Mobile
Mobile
Social
Video
Data / Analytics
Audience Targeting / RTB
Consolidation / M&A
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
________________________________________________
Note: Digital Advertising Revenue refers to U.S. spending; $ in billions. Source: Business Insider, IAB, eMarketer, Blackstone.
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Mobile Endpoints Are Expected to Drive Significant Data Consumption and Advertising Growth II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
Callout The proliferation of mobile devices, combined with the potential inherent in mobile targeting, presents a significant market opportunity.
________________________________________________
Source: Wall Street research.
Evolution of Hardware Device Penetration (Millions in log scale)
Ad Conversion by Device Type
(Based on a scale of 100% for Desktop)
U.S. Net Mobile Ad Revenues
($ in millions)
There are currently 953mm smartphone subscriptions vs. 6.1bn mobile subscriptions, representing a massive growth opportunity.
110%100%
107%100% 100% 100%
45%50%
90%
25% 27%
93%
17%22%
68%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Rev. Per Click Conv. Rate Avg. Order Value
iPad Desktop Android Tablet iPhone Android Phone
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Google Facebook Twitter Apple (iAd) Other
68%
40%194%
85%57%
'11 - '14E CAGRMainframe
Mini Computer
PC
Desktop Internet
Mobile Internet
0
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
1MM+Units
10MM+Units
100MM+Units
1B+Units / Users
10B+Units?
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Mobile Is Taking Share From all Other Media Channels II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
Consumers are incorporating mobile in all aspects of their daily lives – from social activities to commerce and TV viewing.
Share of Consumer Time Spent with Major Media(1)
70% of users from mobile in 2011
________________________________________________
(1) Source: eMarketer, BII Research. (2) Source: BII Research, Facebook, Enders Analysis.
45%
25%
17%
4%
9%
7%
44%
26%
16%
6%
8% 8%
43%
26%
15%
9%
7% 7%
42%
26%
14%
12%
6%5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
TV Online Radio Mobile Print Other
2009 2010 2011 2012
55% of users from mobile in 2011
85% of smartphone users access phones
while watching TV
~20% of shoppers scan a product barcode
and/or send product pictures to friends and family
~56% of users from mobile in 2012
~1,000% YoY growth in users in Q3 2012
~1,100% YoY growth in users in Q4 2012
Metric(2)
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On a Global Basis, the Mobile Growth Opportunity Is Massive II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
Untapped Online Opportunity(3)
(In billions)
Despite its rapid growth to-date, mobile continues to represent a major untapped opportunity.
G-20 Internet Access(1)
(Consumer broadband connections in millions) Untapped Smartphone Opportunity(2)
(Global users in billions)
________________________________________________
(1) Source: Strategy Analytics, International Telecommunications Union, BII Research. (2) Source: Boston Consulting Group, Mary Meeker, Kleiner Perkins, Morgan Stanley Research, Berg Insight, BII Research. (3) Source: International Communication Union, Google, BII Research.
1BUsers
6BUsers
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Smartphone Mobile Phone
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Global Population
Internet Population
350573
475
2,134
167
825
2,707
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2005 2010 2015
Fixed Mobile
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Blackstone 12
153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Smartphone Penetration in the U.S. Is Showing Signs of Saturation II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
As more than half of U.S. mobile subscribers now own smartphones, the pace of net new adds has slowed down.
U.S. Smartphone Market: Year-Over-Year Net New Adds
(Users in millions)
30% 38% 41% 44% 48% 50% 55%
% Smartphone Penetration(1)
________________________________________________
Source: comScore, Nielsen, BII Research. (1) Note: U.S. mobile subscribers 18+.
1210
13 1314 15
119 8
10
1821
2729 29
35 3432 32
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2013
Users Added % YoY Growth
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Mobile Ad Revenues Have Exhibited Slower Growth Thus Far Relative to Other Media II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
Mobile advertising has grown more slowly than other media, as advertisers struggle to adopt the ‘right’ advertising model.
Comparative U.S. Advertising Media Annual $ Revenue Growth (First 5 years) ($ in millions)
________________________________________________
Note: Adjusted for inflation. Source: IAB, McCann-Erickson, BIA-Kelsey, Bll Research.
$358
$1,012
$2,162 $2,162
$3,698
$80 $160$392
$806
$1,171
$55$267
$907
$1,920
$4,621
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Broadcast TV Mobile Internet
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Mobile Ads Are Primarily Web Search and Display II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
2011 Global Mobile Ad Spend(1)
Search dominates mobile ad revenues; however, eCPMs are lower than Desktop. The two leading smartphone platforms, Android and iPhone, garner the highest eCPMs.
Effective CPM, Desktop vs. Mobile(3)
$3.50
$0.75
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Desktop Internet Mobile Internet
________________________________________________
(1) Source: IAB, BII Research. (2) Source: Opera Software, Q2 2012. (3) Source: comScore, Vivaki, Mobclix Exchange, BII Research.
CPM Rates by Mobile Devices(2)
$0.20$0.59 $0.64
$1.01
$2.10
$2.85
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
WindowsPhone
Symbian RIM J2ME /others
Android iPhone
62%
28%
10%
Search
Display
Messaging
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Native, Location-based, and Video Ads Represent the Next Big Opportunity in Mobile II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
Native, social, location-based, and video ads integrate more seamlessly in consumer mobile experiences and have higher CPMs.
CPM Rate for Selected Mobile Ad Platforms(3)
Location-Based Ads(2)
(Monthly Ad Requests Per Mobile User by Location)
Ads in Timelines (Twitter / Facebook)(1)
________________________________________________
(1) Source: Twitter, Facebook. (2) Source: JiWire, 3Q 2012. (3) Source: Ad platforms, BII Research, Greg Sterling, Opus Research.
$10.00
$5.00
$5.00
$3.50
$0.0 $2.5 $5.0 $7.5 $10.0
Flurry Video Ads
Adsmobi Video Ads
LSN Mobile Local Ads
xAd Local
70 67 67
47 37 39 35
27 24 23 16 0
15
30
45
60
75
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Smartphone Users Spend More Time on Apps than on the Web II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
________________________________________________
(1) Source: Nielsen Smartphone Analytics, BII Research, Blackstone. (2) Source: iSuppli, Forrester Research, company press releases, BII Research.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12
Mobile Web Apps
Total Time Spent Using Mobile Web vs. Apps(1)
(Minutes Spent per Month in billions)
Apple dominates the mobile app revenue market.
2011 Mobile App Revenue Share(2)
83%
7%
10%
Apple iOS
Android
Other
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Google Is the Overall Leader in Mobile Ad Revenues II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Google practically owns the mobile search market, and has steadily increased its revenue share over time.
________________________________________________
(1) Source: BII Research, Blackstone. (2) Source: Global StatCounter, BII Research.
Google Global Mobile Search Market Share(2)
Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09 Dec 09 Mar 10 Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 96% 96% 96% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97%
Other
Mobile Ad Revenue(1)
(% of total)
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Digital Marketing Industry Themes: Social
Mobile
Social
Video
Audience Targeting / RTB
Data / Analytics
Consolidation / M&A
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
________________________________________________
Note: Digital Advertising Revenue refers to U.S. spending; $ in billions. Source: Business Insider, IAB, eMarketer, Blackstone.
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Social Networks Are Profoundly Changing How Consumers Discover and Interact with Brands
Traditional Marketing Funnel Social Media Marketing Loop
Interest
Decision
Action
Recomm-endation
Awareness
Action
Decision
Interest
Awareness
________________________________________________
Source: eMarketer, Blackstone.
Social networks are becoming a primary source for consumers to discover new products, view peer recommendations, and seek reviews. Innovations such as mobile check-ins and Facebook integration with retailer sites have allowed consumers to take “word-of-mouth” marketing to a mass scale.
II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
70.9% 68.8% 65.6% 63.5%
5.5% 8.3% 11.1% 12.7%
Social Games 5.5% 6.7% 7.0% 7.4%
4.3% 5.3% 5.8% 6.1%
1.8% - - -
Total Top Five - % of Total Social 88.0% 89.1% 89.5% 89.7%
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
14.0% 16.8% 17.7% 17.1%
13.8% 16.5% 19.8% 21.7%
10.8% 9.1% 8.1% 7.5%
4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4%
4.3% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7%
Total Top Five - % of Total Display 47.4% 50.8% 53.7% 54.4%
The Shifting Display Ecosystem Has Resulted in Dramatic Share Shifts in Advertising
Underlying industry dynamics have resulted in significant display advertising share shifts from static, non-targeted premium channels to RTB and Social formats.
________________________________________________
Source: eMarketer.
Net U.S. Online Display Ad Revenues (% of Total Display Ad Revenues, 2011 – 2014)
II. Industry Themes
Net U.S. Social Network Ad Spending (% of Total Social Ad Revenues, 2011 – 2014)
Social Games
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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Facebook Represents an Exciting, Although As Yet Unproven, Advertising Platform II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
Facebook’s data and potential targeting mechanisms hold significant promise for advertisers. Marketer response, however, has been mixed thus far.
Targeting Channels
Targeting Mechanisms
Facebook Online
Facebook Mobile Apps
Zynga.com Smartphone Apps
YOU
________________________________________________
Source: Blackstone, Wall Street Journal, Citigroup.
Facebook Targeting Framework
Demographic data
Personal information
Interest graph
Retargeting
Facebook Newsfeed
Facebook Exchange
Third-Party Sites
Facebook Advertising Feedback from C-Level Executives (Based on Citigroup Facebook Advertiser Survey)
17.1%
44.5%
38.3%
Superior
About the Same
Inferior
Facebook Advertising ROI vs. Competitors (% Surveyed)
Primary customer data Facebook Advertising Partner View Facebook Advertising Partner View
CEO of Major eCommerce Platform Mixed CEO of Online Ad Agency Mixed
CEO of Leading Online Luxury
Goods RetailerNegative
CEO of Large Online Ad Agency
GroupNegative
CEO of Digital Ad Agency Mixed CMO of Online Ad Agency Positive
Exec at Large Online Auction /
Commerce SiteMixed
CMO of Large Global Beverage
CompanyPositive
Exec at Large Online Community Site Negative CMO of Global Bank Mixed
Exec at Consumer / Business Printing
SiteMixed CMO of Leading CPG Company Mixed
Veteran Online Advertising Executive Negative CEO of Online Travel Company Negative
Exec at Online Ad Platform Positive CMO of Online Automotive Retailer Mixed
CEO of Large Ad Agency Firm NegativeExec at Leading Hot Beverage
CompanyPositive
Exec at Large Ad Agency Firm Positive
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Digital Marketing Industry Themes: Video
Mobile
Social
Video
Audience Targeting / RTB
Data / Analytics
Consolidation / M&A
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
________________________________________________
Note: Digital Advertising Revenue refers to U.S. spending; $ in billions. Source: Business Insider, IAB, eMarketer, Blackstone.
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Midnight 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM 12 PM 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM
Online Becoming ‘The New Primetime’
A Huge Opportunity, One that Online Video Is Ideally-Suited to Target, Exists in Display & Brand Advertising
A significant gap exists between the relative share of online and offline branding, implying a $13.0bn untapped market opportunity in the U.S. alone.
U.S. Market Opportunity (2011) ($ in billions)
Branding (2)
[__]
Branding (2)
($125.0bn, 82%)
Implied
Gap
($13.0bn, 43%)
Direct
Response (1)
($27.0bn, 18%)
Direct
Response (1)
($19.0bn, 61%)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
U.S. Offline
Media Spend
U.S. Online
Media Spend
Branding (2)
($12.0bn, 39%)
$31.0bn $152.0bn
________________________________________________
Source: IAB, Wall Street research, comScore, Blackstone. (1) Offline DR includes direct mail and directories. Online DR includes classifieds, e-mail, lead generation, and search. (2) Offline Branding includes outdoor, print, radio, and TV. Online Branding includes banner ads, rich media, sponsorships, and video.
% P
eo
ple
15
+ U
sin
g M
ed
ium
Internet
TV
Prime Time
Harder to Reach Audiences in the New Media Model
TARGET AUDIENCE MEDIA
Trad
itio
nal
M
edia
Fewer ads… Reached more people… With undivided attention.
ADS
New
Med
ia Reaching fewer people… More ads… Paying less attention.
II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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Blackstone 24
153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
“Over-the-Top” Video Is Reaching Mass Adoption
As consumers begin to view more content online, “over-the-top” video revenues are on the rise.
U.S. Primetime TV Viewing(1)
(% of 18-49 TV set users during 8-9 PM hour, multiple responses permitted) Global Digital Video Revenue(2) ($ in billions)
________________________________________________
(1) Source: GfK, BII Research. (2) Source: Company filings, Wall Street research, BII Research, Blackstone.
II. Industry Themes
82% 83%
64%
17% 16%
26%
6% 6%
8%
7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2004 2008 2012
Live TV Recorded TV
Video game Streaming video
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Netflix Youtube Hulu
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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Blackstone 25
153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
48% 47%
24%
21%
6%
15%
8% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 4%
0% 0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
Search Display
Video Classifieds and Directories
Lead Generation Rich Media
Sponsorships Email
40%
47%
38%
18%
17% 14%
5%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Broadcast Print Direct Online
Online Advertising Has Shown Robust Growth Over the Past Decade
Online advertising growth, which has averaged 18% per year over the past decade, has come mainly at the expense of Print. In the future, Video is expected to be a major growth driver online.
________________________________________________
Source: Wall Street research, eMarketer. (1) Broadcast includes outdoor, radio, and television. (2) Print includes magazines and newspapers. (3) Direct includes direct mail and directories. (4) Online includes search, display, video, classifieds, lead generation, rich media, sponsorships, and e-mail. (5) Includes mobile advertising.
Historical U.S. Market Share by Channel
Projected U.S. Online Advertising Market Share
(1) (2) (3) (4)
(5)
II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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Blackstone 26
153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Similar to Print a Decade Ago, TV is Ripe for Disruption
Google already generates almost as much U.S. ad revenue as all magazines and newspapers. The Company is well positioned to take share from TV networks as more video content is consumed online and becomes better monetized.
U.S. Ad Revenue(1)
($ in billions) Ad Loads, TV vs. Digital(2)
(% share of programming)
________________________________________________
(1) Source: Google, NAA, PIB, BII Research. (2) Source: comScore, June 2012, BII Research.
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
$35.0
$40.0
$45.0
$50.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Google Magazines Newspapers
II. Industry Themes
92.1%
98.5%
75.2%
7.9%
1.5%
24.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Streaming TV Online
Online Video
TV
Content Ads
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Digital Marketing Industry Themes: Audience Targeting / Real-time Bidding (“RTB”)
Mobile
Social
Video
Audience Targeting / RTB
Data / Analytics
Consolidation / M&A
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
________________________________________________
Note: Digital Advertising Revenue refers to U.S. spending; $ in billions. Source: Business Insider, IAB, eMarketer, Blackstone.
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
The Display Markets Have Seen a Flood of Non-Premium Inventory That Is Less Attractive to Brands II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
The Display market has been driven by a rise in non-premium inventory, which has typically been less attractive to brands and has resulted in pricing pressure for premium publishers.
U.S. Average CPM by Media Type
Denotes Average CPM
Broadcast TV
Cable TV
Syndication TV
Radio
Magazine
Newspaper
Out-of-Home
Internet (Display)
CPM <$2 $6 $10 $14 $18 $22 $26 $30 $34 >$40
Online Video
Hulu
________________________________________________ Source: Wall Street research, Blackstone. Note: Display inventory comprised of page views and ad coverage; pricing reflective of RPM’s. Pricing reflective of the combination of CTRs and CPC.
Global Display Advertising has Seen a Flood of Inventory ($ in billions)
42% 46% 48% 45%39%
41% 41% 47% 51%57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Supply-Driven Demand-Driven
$17.1 $7.4 ($1.3)
$23.1 $7.8
$1.2 $32.2
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
2007 Inventory(Supply)
Pricing(Demand)
2010 Inventory(Supply)
Pricing(Demand)
2013E
Huge opportunity to increase ad effectiveness through social marketing / audience targeting / RTB
% Increase'07-'10E '10E-'13E
Supply 122% 87%
Demand (22%) 13%
________________________________________________ Source: Media Dynamics, comScore, Wall Street research. Note: All media measured per adult, based on 2009 / 2010 rates; low estimates for traditional media include ads aimed at mass market (no demo targeting); average estimates for TV include 1) early am, 2) daytime, 3) early news, 4) primetime, and 5) late evening and are based on upfront pricing.
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
A New Display Advertising Ecosystem Is Emerging
________________________________________________
Source: Blackstone.
The Display ecosystem is increasingly integrated, data-driven, and real-time in nature.
Exchange Ecosystem
Demand-Side
Platforms
Supply-Side
Platforms
Data Integration / Aggregation / DMPs
Data Warehouse
Client / Primary Data
Third Party Data
Cloud / Edge Network / CDN
Publisher
Tools
Advertiser
Tools
Publishers
O&O Premium
Niche / Vertical
Social Networks
Video
Mobile
Proprietary Networks
Format
Display
Search
AdSense
Rich Media
Online Video
Mobile
Social
TV
Radio (?)
Print (?)
Other (?)
Advertisers
Brand
Inventory Format
Display
Search
AdSense
Rich Media
Online Video
Mobile
Infr
astr
uct
ure
Self-Service Ad Platforms
SSPs
Optimization/ Analytics
DSPs / Targeting
Ad Campaign Management
Marketing Automation
Long-tail Networks
Data Management
Platforms
Ad Exchanges
Infrastru
cture
Direct
Social
Direct
Optimization / Analytics
Media Buying Platforms
II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Q2 2012QoQ Δ in
# of Advertisers
Major National 57% 30%
Internet Brand 29% 23%
Major Regional 11% 25%
Local Business 3% 49%
$1.0
$7.1
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
2011 2016
RTB Spending Is Growing Across All Major Ad Formats
While it has been used historically to auction remnant inventory, RTB has extended to premium publishers, premium advertisers, and premium ad formats.
________________________________________________
Note: Includes all display formats served to all devices. Source: eMarketer.
U.S. Real-Time Bidding Digital Display Ad Spending ($ in billions)
Types of Advertisers that Use RTB in North America
Key Drivers of RTB Spending
Maturation of Facebook Ad Exchange
Influx of Mobile and Video Inventory
Greater Availability of Premium Inventory
Demand for Increased Transparency
% of Total Display Ad Spending
8% 22%
II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Ecommerce Players Are Also Disrupting the Display Ecosystem by Leveraging Data
Major eCommerce players have developed significant advertising businesses by harnessing their unique data assets to target advertising to specific audiences.
U.S. Retailers: Total Ad Display Impressions(1)
(In billions)
________________________________________________
(1) comScore, BII Research. (2) Amazon.com, BII Research.
Product Ads From External Websites(2)
II. Industry Themes
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
Other
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Digital Marketing Industry Themes: Data / Analytics
Mobile
Social
Video
Audience Targeting / RTB
Data / Analytics
Consolidation / M&A
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
________________________________________________
Note: Digital Advertising Revenue refers to U.S. spending; $ in billions. Source: Business Insider, IAB, eMarketer, Blackstone.
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II. Industry Themes
The Internet Has Generated an Explosion of Unstructured Digital Content
________________________________________________
Source: Go-Globe.com
13,000+ hours MUSIC
STREAMING on
12,000+ NEW ADS POSTED on
370,000+ minutes VOICE CALLS on
320+ NEW accounts
100+ NEW accounts
The world’s LARGEST
community created content
1 NEW article is published
associatedcontent
6,600+ NEW pictures are uploaded on
125+ PLUGIN
downloads
510,040 COMMENTS
79,364 WALL POSTS
695,000+ STATUS UPDATES
1,700+
DOWNLOADS
50+ DOWNLOADS
694,445 SEARCH QUERIES
168 million EMAILS
ARE SENT
60+ NEW BLOGS
1,500+ BLOG POSTS
70+ DOMAINS
REGISTERED
600+ NEW VIDEOS
25+ hours TOTAL DURATION
QUESTIONS asked on the internet…
100+ 40+
Answers.com
13,000+ APPLICATIONS DOWNLOADED
20,000+ NEW POSTS on
1 NEW DEFINITION is added on
1,600+ READS ON
98,000+ TWEETS
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Data Usage Is Projected to Continue to Grow Exponentially II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
In addition to massively increasing data volumes, the variety and complexity of data are experiencing similar exponential growth. The explosion of data represents a tremendous opportunity, and challenge, for marketers.
CAGR (2010 – 2014E)
48.0%
22.0%
58.0%
Multiple Sources Contributing to Growth in Data
Megabytes
Big Data
Web
Segmentation
Offer Details
Customer Touches
Support Contacts
CRM
ERP
Purchase Detail Purchase Record Payment Record
A/B Testing
Dynamic Pricing
Web logs
Offer History
Affiliate Networks
Search Marketing
Behavioral Targeting
Dynamic Funnels
Sensors / RFID / Devices
Mobile Web
User Click Stream Sentiment
User Generated
Content
Social Interaction &
Fees
Spatial & GPS Coordinates
External Demographics
HD Video, Audio, Images
Speech to Text
Product / Service Logs
SMS / MMS
Gigabytes
Terabytes
Petabytes
Increasing Data Variety and Complexity
________________________________________________
Source: Cisco, Wall Street research, YouTube.
2.5 3.86.3
8.7 10.5
16.4
24.2
35.7
53.2
79.2
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Unstructured Structured
Historical and Projected Data Growth (Exabytes)
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Data Analytics, Mobile, and Social Are the Top Priorities of Today’s CMO II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
________________________________________________
Source: IBM, eMarketer.
Analytics, social, and performance-based advertising are at the forefront of the CMO agenda.
Technology that CMOs Worldwide Plan to Increase Use of in the Next 3 – 5 Years (% Respondents)
Data-Driven Marketing
Transition to Performance-Based Advertising (% Channel Market Share)
Performance-Based CPM Hybrid
41% 41%47% 51%
57% 59% 62% 65%
42% 46%
48%45%
39% 37% 33% 31%
17% 13%5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201146%
56%
61%
62%
63%
66%
68%
70%
72%
73%
80%
81%
81%
82%
0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90%
Email Marketing
Score Cards / Dashboards
Campaign Management
Search Engine Optimization
Reputation Management
Predictive Analytics
Collaboration Tools
Single View of Customer
Tablet Applications
Content Management
Mobile Applications
CRM
Customer Analytics
Social Media
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Data Is Gaining Increased Importance in the Current Digital Marketing Landscape
Agencies
`
Enterprise CRM Marketing Software
3rd Party Data / Data Exchanges
(WPP)
Analytics, Optimization and Media Plan Execution
® (WPP)
(Omnicom)
Analytics
(IBM)
Networks / Exchanges
(Google)
Database Marketing
Brands / Primary Data
________________________________________________
Source: Blackstone, Gartner.
II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Digital Marketing Industry Themes: Consolidation / M&A
Mobile
Social
Video
Audience Targeting / RTB
Data / Analytics
Consolidation / M&A
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
________________________________________________
Note: Digital Advertising Revenue refers to U.S. spending; $ in billions. Source: Business Insider, IAB, eMarketer, Blackstone.
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Services
/
/ / /
Strategic M&A Activity Is Occurring on All Levels of the Digital Marketing Stack
Email Local Mobile Search Social Video
Optimization
Analytics
Data
/ /
/ /
/
/
/
/ +
/ /
/
/ /
/
/
/
/
/ /
/
/
/
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ, Blackstone.
(Search partnership)
(Daily deal sites consolidation)
/ /
/ / /
/
Display Email / MA Local Mobile Search Social Video
/
/
Platforms /
/ / / /
/
/
II. Industry Themes
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
/ /
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III. M&A Perspectives
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Summary Observations in Digital Marketing M&A
________________________________________________
Source: Blackstone.
III. M&A Perspectives
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
Strategic M&A is impacting every layer of the Digital Marketing stack.
The Digital Marketing Ecosystem Continues to Consolidate through Strategic M&A
Marketers realize inherent value from the consolidation of multiple point products into an integrated offering
Market solutions evolving toward integrated CMO dashboards for executing cross-channel campaigns
Data, analytics, and automation are increasingly important components
Digital Marketing Strategic Activity is Concentrated Among a Relatively Small Number of ‘Serial Acquirers’
21 major market participants across 4 key sectors: Agencies, Software, Platforms, and Publishers
Others acquirers exist, but tend to make tuck-in buys in a sporadic fashion
Interest in Inorganic Expansion in the Digital Marketing Sector Has Broadened Beyond the Traditional Internet Platform Players
Google, Yahoo!, Microsoft, AOL, WPP, and Publicis formerly viewed as the end-game
Strategic buyer ecosystem has broadened materially in recent years, most notably into the traditional horizontal software players
Strategic Activity Has Concentrated in a Handful of ‘Hot’ Sectors of Late
Buyers continue to orient their M&A strategies around key growth sectors
Data / Analytics, Social, Mobile, Content, eCommerce, and Digital Agencies have attracted significant investment
No Market Participant Has Assembled a Complete Stack Solution, as Yet
Google has made the most aggressive moves to-date
Adobe, IBM, Oracle, and Salesforce.com beginning to make interesting moves as they target the ‘Marketing Cloud’
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
295
179214
321
519
570614
674
758
960
845
(60.0%)
(30.0%)
0.0%
30.0%
60.0%
90.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Number of Deals YoY % Change in # of Deals
$7$5
$13
$28
$36
$64
$27
$16$15
$20
$32
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
$75
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Deal Value ($ in Billions) Avg. Deal Size ($ in Millions)
Digital Marketing Strategic Activity: Historical Perspective III. M&A Perspectives
________________________________________________
Note: Includes disclosed deal values only. Source: The 451 Group, Thomson Financial.
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
Digital Marketing M&A activity has grown steadily post-2008 levels, from both a volume and size perspective.
Transaction Volume # of Deals YoY % Change
Transaction Value Deal Value, $bn Average Deal Size, $mm
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
The Digital Marketing Stack Continues to Consolidate
A number of key players continue to consolidate the Digital Marketing stack through strategic M&A.
Digital Marketing Stack Key Industry Consolidations
Channels
Data / Analytics
Networks
Ad Servers and Exchanges
Search
Display
Video
Mobile
Social
Agencies
Software
Platforms
________________________________________________
Source: Blackstone.
Marketing Automation
Ad
vert
ise
r-Si
de
eCommerce
Optimization
SSPs
Content
Pu
blis
he
r-Si
de
Publishers
Digital Agencies
III. M&A Perspectives
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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Agencies Software Platforms Publishers
•••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• • • • • ••• •••••
•••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• ••••••••••
•••••••••• ••••••••• •••••••• •••••••••• ••••••••••
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Mobile • •• • •• •• • • •• ••••• •••
Social • • ••• ••• • •• •
Email • •
Marketing
Automation• • •• •
Data / Analytics • • •••• • •••• ••• • • •• •• • • •
Networks • • •••• • •• •••• •
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••••• ••••• •••••eCommerce •• • • •• •• • ••••• ••••• ••• • • ••• •
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Ad
vert
iser
-Sid
e
Digital Agencies
Soft
war
e
Pu
blis
her
-Sid
e
Serv
ices
Digital Marketing Strategic M&A Chessboard: 2007 – 2012(1)
________________________________________________
Source: The 451 Group, Capital IQ, company websites and news releases. (1) Data represents strategic transactions in the Digital Marketing sector only.
• = 1 Transaction
III. M&A Perspectives
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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Blackstone 44
153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Strategic Buyer Observations
________________________________________________
Source: Blackstone.
III. M&A Perspectives
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
The Digital Marketing ecosystem has changed dramatically as various players have increasingly leveraged M&A as a strategic capability.
Buyers from Multiple Sectors are Converging on the Digital Marketing Opportunity
Agencies, Software, Platforms, and Publishers represent core segments of activity
Buyers, Historically, Have Tended to Stay Close to Home
Agencies have rarely bought technology
eCommerce and Publisher players have historically bought within their core sectors
A Small Number of True Stack Players Exist
Google, Adobe are the furthest along; each has accomplished stack convergence, in part, through M&A of strategic capabilities it did not own
Examples include Google buying into Display and Mobile, Adobe buying into Site Optimization and Video
Sector Cross-over is Beginning to Emerge
IT Services increasing Digital Marketing presence and vice-versa
Traditional horizontal software players moving aggressively into marketing vertical
Commerce players, such as Amazon, moving into Display Advertising (organically, thus far)
M&A is Becoming a Strategic Capability
Innovation is difficult for many large companies; M&A in the Digital Marketing sector has served as a method for strategics to acquire R&D, key personnel, and expertise
Those companies who have been consistent and successful acquirers have tended to perform well financially and in the equity markets
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Blackstone 45
153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
97
71
47
3129
16
9 8 86
2 1
37
20 2018 18
64
23
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
A Wide Range of Activity in the Digital Marketing Landscape Exists Across Market Participants
Number of Digital Marketing Transactions by Strategic Buyer (# of Deals, 2007-2012)
________________________________________________
Source: The 451 Group, Capital IQ, company websites and news releases.
Agencies Software Platforms Publishers
100
Strategic activity in Digital Marketing varies widely by participant. WPP, Microsoft, Google, and Gannett lead their respective sectors in terms of the number of transactions completed.
III. M&A Perspectives
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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Blackstone 46
153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Digital Marketing Strategic Activity Momentum by Buyer – Two-Year Perspective (2011 – 2012)
Deal ‘momentum’ in the Digital Marketing sector varies considerably by participant.
________________________________________________
Source: The 451 Group, Capital IQ, company websites and news releases. Note: Position on timeline based on total number of transactions from 1/1/2011 to 12/31/2012 relative to peers within given sector. Size of circle represents the aggregate total enterprise value of transactions by each company from
1/1/2011 to 12/31/2012, relative to peers within given sector. Transactions with undisclosed enterprise value are assumed to contribute a size of $25mm to the aggregate total enterprise value.
Age
nci
es
Soft
war
e
Pla
tfo
rms
Pu
blis
her
s
Low High
III. M&A Perspectives
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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Blackstone 47
153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Valuation Trends
________________________________________________
Source: Blackstone.
III. M&A Perspectives
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
Valuations in Digital Marketing are driven by growth, scalability, scarcity, synergy potential / fit, and a competitive dynamic among the relevant buyer universe.
Divergence Exists in the Multiples Paid by Various M&A Participants
Platform and Software players have paid nearly 2x the multiple of Publishers and Agencies, on average
Valuations in Digital Marketing are a Function of Growth and Scalability
Interactive agencies and other services businesses tend to have low margins, lower growth and low scalability, and as such achieve lower multiples
Software and platform companies tend to trade at high multiples due to above average growth prospects and higher profitability
Strategic Assets Command Strategic Valuations
Assets in sectors viewed as being highly strategic, such as mobile and social, command premium valuations
‘Scarce’ assets that either have achieved scale in a sector, or have a differentiated and strategic technology also command a valuation premium
• YouTube, Admob, Buddy Media represent notable examples
Other key valuation drivers include: fostering a competitive dynamic among relevant buyers, synergies, and defensive reasons
Google has been the Most Prolific and Aggressive Acquirer
37 deals across nearly every segment of the stack
Highest aggregate value and multiple paid (for disclosed deals)
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
0x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
12x
14x
16x
18x
20x
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Me
dia
n T
ran
sact
ion
TEV
/LTM
Re
ven
ue
Total # of Transactions
Valuation Trends: 2007 – 2012(1)
________________________________________________
Source: The 451 Group, Capital IQ, company websites and news releases. Note: Size of circle represents the aggregate total enterprise value of transactions by each company. Transactions with undisclosed enterprise value are assumed to contribute a size of $25mm to the aggregate total enterprise value. Facebook, IPG, and Omnicom excluded from graph due to unavailable transaction enterprise value data; total number of deals for Facebook, IPG, and Omnicom: 6, 29, and 31, respectively. (1) Data represents strategic transactions in the Digital Marketing sector only.
Agencies Software Media Platforms Publishers
Digital Marketing Transactions by Valuation Multiple and Size = $500 million
$ in millions Summary Statistics
# of Deals Agg. Enterprise Value Avg. EV per Deal Median Multiple
Agencies 275 $18,923 $69 2.4x
Software 50 19,921 398 5.2x
Platforms 123 19,271 157 6.7x
Publishers 41 4,059 99 3.5x
Total 489 $62,174 $127 4.4x
III. M&A Perspectives
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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Blackstone 49
153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
Sector Observations
________________________________________________
Source: Blackstone.
III. M&A Perspectives
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
Digital Marketing strategic M&A is concentrated along a number of key sectors and themes.
The Global Roll-up of Digital Agencies Continues Acquisitions in the sector tend to be of relatively small agencies (<$100 million), by the major holding companies
WPP and Publicis represent ‘serial’ acquirers in the space
‘Hot’ Sectors Have Garnered Significant Attention from Strategic Buyers Mobile, Social, and Data / Analytics have become strategic priorities, given growth characteristics
Despite relative nascency, these sectors have quickly become highly-sought after capabilities
M&A Activity among Networks and Exchanges has Waned ‘Plain-vanilla’ Ad Networks, in particular, are no longer viewed as strategic
Interest among buyers has migrated to optimization around audiences, behavioral, predictive analytics • Ability to leverage data in real-time for precision targeting is viewed as critical
On the Publisher Side, Consolidation Continues Among Content and Commerce Assets Amazon, eBay, and Google have made strong and consistent moves in the eCommerce arena
AOL, Google, Gannet, and Hearst have been the predominant acquirers of Content assets
Future M&A Will Concentrate on a Number of Key Themes Social will migrate from Fan Page management to Cross-channel Social Marketing
Mobile networks less interesting to buyers; post-click optimization, mobile advertising ‘gamification’ gaining traction
Optimization of Digital Marketing messages to custom audience segments
Real-time Predictive Analytics, applied to marketing, will migrate from a nice-to-have to a must-have
Marketing Automation is increasingly viewed as a strategic capability • Oracle / Eloqua, IBM / Unica, Teradata / Aprimo recent examples; expect more to follow
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153 191 194 0 115 99 126 211 117 0 152 195 99 206 202 81 162 21 60 113 120 0 44 95
272
20
12
75
3 3 2
23
14
4
66
49
8
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dig
ital
Age
nci
es
Mo
bile
Soci
al
Sear
ch
Mar
keti
ng
Au
tom
atio
n
Vid
eo
Dis
pla
y
Emai
l
Dat
a /
An
alyt
ics
Net
wo
rks
Ad
Ser
vers
/Ex
chan
ges
Co
nte
nt
eC
om
me
rce
Op
tim
izat
ion
SSP
s
Strategic Activity in Digital Marketing Varies Widely by Sector
Advertiser-Side Publisher-Side
280
Software Services
Number of Transactions by Target Sector (# of Deals, 2007-2012)
________________________________________________
Source: The 451 Group, Capital IQ, company websites and news releases.
The highest volume of Digital Marketing transactions exists in the Digital Agency, Mobile, Social, Data / Analytics, Content, and eCommerce sectors.
III. M&A Perspectives
Mobile Video
Audience Targeting /
RTB
Consolidation / M&A
Social
Data / Analytics
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1999 2003 2007 2012
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Appendix
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Blackstone 52
Biography: Ken Allen
Ken Allen Managing Director
Ken Allen is a Managing Director in Blackstone Advisory Partners L.P., is a founding member of Blackstone’s Technology M&A practice, and leads the firm’s Digital Marketing and Cloud Computing Advisory efforts. Mr. Allen has advised hundreds of companies in his 15 years in the industry, and has successfully executed M&A transactions having an aggregate value of over $10 billion. Notable transactions Mr. Allen has advised on include Publicis’ $530 million acquisition of Razorfish from Microsoft, OrangeSoda’s sale to Deluxe Corporation, ClickSquared’s Series C Private Placement, Sapient's acquisitions of The Nitro Group and Derivatives Consulting Group, Compellent’s $960 million sale to Dell, Xerox's $8.3 billion acquisition of ACS, and the £190 million sale of Xafinity to Advent International. Prior to joining Blackstone in 2007, Mr. Allen worked in Deutsche Bank's Technology Group, where he focused on mergers and acquisitions, leveraged recapitalizations, leveraged buyouts, and equity financings for a range of companies including Infosys, Ciena, Intralinks, WNS, Stratus Technologies, Allot Communications, and Interwise. Mr. Allen received an MBA from the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, where he graduated as a Tuck Scholar. He also received his BE from Dartmouth in Electrical Engineering, where he graduated with summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa honors.
Appendix