bnp paribas - asian agribusiness - 2o12
DESCRIPTION
Asian Agribusiness - 130912TRANSCRIPT
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PREPARED BY BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES ASIA THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR U.S DISTRIBUTION. IM
SECTOR REPORT
EQUITIES RESEARCH
ASEAN
ASIA AGRIBUSINESS
IMPROVING INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
US rains, too little too late
SUMMARY USDA lowers soy and corn yield forecasts
The 12 September WASDE report was bullish for both soybean
The market expected the numbers to be poor, but did not expect yield
forecasts to be lowered the third time this year. Rainfall received from
the recent hurricanes was too little too late, and in wrong places. Tight
oilseed supplies mean high prices will persist.
OUTLOOK El Nino is five months old as of August
In August, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reading
points, making it the fifth month of negative readings and adding strength
to our belief that an El Nino is developing in 4Q12 and 2013. It will
impact oil palm past the peak production season in September and result
in depletion of the current high stock levels in the 4Q and early 2013.
VALUATION We prefer Indonesian platations plays to others
We expect CPO to narrow the price gap with soyoil in the coming months.
Recent spikes in corn and soybean prices have widened the spread
between CPO and soybeans to USD330/tonne. In the futures markets, a
contango price situation has been the norm of late, something not seen
since 2008. But, unlike 2008s soft commodity price rally
oil-led, this rally is led purely by supply shortfalls. We believe the current
situation is more fundamental and sustainable. Oil World expects soft
commodity tightness to last into August 2013. As such,
a window of opportunity to make some good investment gai
We maintain our positive stance on the sector. Our target prices for
Malaysian plantations are still based on 15.7x 2012E P/E, and this is
based on the five-year mean P/E for the sector. Supply shocks pose an
upside risk to the sector P/E. In the meantime, we prefer stocks with
exposure to upstream businesses and with high liquidity. Our top pick
Golden Agri-Resources: it has the highest liquidity among the plantations,
is one of the most leveraged to CPO price changes
for strong FFB growth as its plantation is 13 years old. Our other picks are
London Sumatra and BW Plantations. A downside risk to the Asia agri
sector is a further collapse in crude oil prices, while a
rot (ganoderma) disease affecting oil palm plantations on a large scale
Michael Greenall, CFP [email protected]
+65 6210 1974
Helmy [email protected]
+6221 2358 4939
BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) Ltd. research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheMarkets.com, Factset and on your salesperson for authorisation. Please see the important notice on the back page.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND IN THE DISCLOSURES APPEND
BNPP RECOMMENDATIONS
Company BBG Code Rating
Golden Agri-Resources GGR SP BUYLondon Sumatra LSIP IJ BUY
Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ BUY
Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP IJ BUY
KL Kepong KLK MK BUY
Genting Plantations GENP MK BUY
IOI Corp IOI MK HOLD
Wilmar Int'l WIL SP HOL
Indofood Agri IFAR SP HOLD
Sime Darby SIME MK HOLD
too little too late
s for the third time
The 12 September WASDE report was bullish for both soybeans and corn.
but did not expect yield
the third time this year. Rainfall received from
and in wrong places. Tight
reading was a negative 5.0
points, making it the fifth month of negative readings and adding strength
to our belief that an El Nino is developing in 4Q12 and 2013. It will likely
oil palm past the peak production season in September and result
stock levels in the 4Q and early 2013.
We prefer Indonesian platations plays to others
gap with soyoil in the coming months.
widened the spread
/tonne. In the futures markets, a
been the norm of late, something not seen
unlike 2008s soft commodity price rally that was crude
ed purely by supply shortfalls. We believe the current
situation is more fundamental and sustainable. Oil World expects soft
As such, we believe there is
a window of opportunity to make some good investment gains.
We maintain our positive stance on the sector. Our target prices for
Malaysian plantations are still based on 15.7x 2012E P/E, and this is
year mean P/E for the sector. Supply shocks pose an
time, we prefer stocks with
exposure to upstream businesses and with high liquidity. Our top pick is
Resources: it has the highest liquidity among the plantations,
is one of the most leveraged to CPO price changes, and is at a sweet spot
rong FFB growth as its plantation is 13 years old. Our other picks are
London Sumatra and BW Plantations. A downside risk to the Asia agri
sector is a further collapse in crude oil prices, while an upside risk is root
palm plantations on a large scale.
Helmy Kristanto [email protected]
+6221 2358 4939
BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) Ltd. research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheMarkets.com, Factset and on http://eqresearch.bnpparibas.com/indexe see the important notice on the back page.
TOP STOCK PICK
Company
BBG Code
Share Price
Target Price
1 Year - high
1 year - low
VALUATION SUMMARY
Company
Golden Agri-Resources
Wilmar Int'l
KL Kepong
IOI Corp
Genting Plantations
Source: BNP Paribas estimates
0.57
0.62
0.67
0.72
0.77
0.82
0.87
Sep-11 Dec-11
(SGD) Golden Agri-Resources
NDIX
Rating Share Price Target Price Upside / Downside
BUY 0.67 0.93 +38.8% BUY 2,500.00 3,470.00 +38.8%
BUY 21,650.00 27,600.00 +27.5%
BUY 1,310.00 1,570.00 +19.8%
BUY 22.10 26.20 +18.6%
BUY 9.28 10.60 +14.2%
HOLD 5.10 5.40 +8.0%
HOLD 3.00 3.10 +3.3%
HOLD 1.37 1.32 -3.5%
HOLD 9.81 9.20 -6.2%
http://eqresearch.bnpparibas.com/index. Please contact
13 SEPTEMBER 2012
PICK
Golden Agri-Resources
GGR SP
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.55
VALUATION SUMMARY
P/E (x) Yld (%)
FY1 FY2 FY2
11.4 9.9 2.6
17.9 10.9 1.8
13.7 13.0 2.8
14.9 12.8 4.9
14.1 10.8 1.3
Source: BNP Paribas estimates
(8)
(3)
2
7
12
17
Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12
(%)Resources Rel to MSCI Singapore
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
2 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
USDA slightly lowers forecasts for corn and soybean production
The United States Department of Agricultures much awaited 12 September World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed a further decline in production forecasts for both corn and soybeans over its own estimates made in August. Yield forecasts for both soybeans and corn were revised down for the third time this year in September. This further verifies the tight supply-demand situation in global oilseeds, which is not expected to abate until after August 2013, by Oil Worlds estimates.
The key reason for the bad harvest is the drought seen in the US, which coincided with the planting season. The drought has yet to abate and even tough some rain has started to fall, we believe it is too little and too late in the planting cycle to have any beneficial impact on corn and soyabean crops.
We summarise the WASDE Corn and Soybean report below.
CORN: The WASDE report showed 2012/13 corn production is forecast at 107b bushels, down just under 1% from the estimate made in August, but down 13% y-y. If this materialises, it will be the lowest production season in the US since 2006.
EXHIBIT 1: WASDE US corn forecasts
CORN 2010/11 2011/12 Est. 2012/13 Proj. - Aug 2012/13 Proj. -Sept
(m acres) (m acres) (m acres) (m acres)
Area Planted 88.2 91.9 96.4 96.4
Area Harvested 81.4 84 87.4 87.4
Yield per Harvested Acre (bushels) 152.8 147.2 123.4 122.8
(m bushels) (m bushels) (m bushels) (m bushels)
Beginning stocks 1,708 1,128 1,021 1,181
Production 12,447 12,358 10,779 10,727
Imports 28 25 75 75
Supply, total 14,182 13,511 11,875 11,983
Feed and Residual 4,793 4,400 4,075 4,150
Food, Seed & Industrial 6,428 6,390 5,850 5,850
Ethanol & by-products 5,021 5,000 4,500 4,500
Domestic, Total 11,221 10,790 9,925 10,000
Exports 1,834 1,540 1,300 1,250
Use, Total 13,055 12,330 11,225 11,250
Ending Stocks 1,128 1,181 650 733
CCC Inventory 0 0
Free Stocks 1,128 1,181
Outstanding Loans 48 40
Avg. Farm Price (USD/bushel) 5.18 6.25 7.50 - 8.90 7.20 - 8.60
Source: USDA
Based on crop conditions on 1 September, yields are likely to average at 122.8 bushels per acre. This is 0.6
bushels/acre lower than the August 2012 forecast and 24.4 bushels/acre and below 2010/11s actual achieved level of 147.2 bushels/acre. This represents the lowest yield number seen since 1995. All this is despite the 4% y-y increase in area harvested of 87.4m acres.
The ending stock number, while lower than the 2011/12 figure of 1,181m bushels, was revised up by 83m bushels in September due to an increase in residual supply of 125m bushels that surprised the market. There is some scepticism by commodity traders over the increase in residual supply, as the figure seems too large.
The USDA, in its WASDE report, assumed average farm price of USD6.25/bushel for 2011/12 and USD7.20-8.60/bushel in 2012/13.
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
3 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
SOYBEANS: The WASDE report showed 2012/13 soybean production is forecast at 2,634m bushels, this is 2% lower than the August 2012 estimate, but down a hefty 14% from 2010/11s actual production.
EXHIBIT 2: WASDE US soybean forecasts
SOYBEANS 2010/11 2011/12 Est. 2012/13 Proj. - Aug 2012/13 Proj. -Sept
(m acres) (m acres) (m acres) (m acres)
Area Planted 77.4 75 76.1 76.1
Area Harvested 76.6 73.6 74.6 74.6
Yield per harvested acre (bushels) 43.5 41.5 36.1 35.3
(m bushels) (m bushels) (m bushels) (m bushels)
Beginning Stocks 151 215 145 130
Production 3,329 3,056 2,692 2,634
Imports 14 16 20 20
Supply, Total 3,495 3,287 2,857 2,785
Crushings 1,648 1,705 1,515 1,500
Exports 1,501 1,360 1,110 1,055
Seed 87 88 89 89
Residual 44 3 27 25
Use, Total 3,280 3,157 2,742 2,670
Ending Stocks 215 130 115 115
Avg. Farm Price (USD/bushel) 11.3 12.45 15.00 - 17.00 15.00 - 17.00
Source: USDA
As of crop conditions on 1 September, yields are expected tio average 35.3 bushels/acre. This is a 0.8 bushel/acre downgrade from Augusts forecast and is 6.2 bushels/acre lower than the actual figure in 2010/11. The crop area harvested in 2012/13 will be some 74.6m acres.
The ending stock of soyabeans remained low at 115m bushels, and unchanged over the forecasts made in August, clearly showing the extremely tight supply situation in the US this planting season, which is not expected to alleviate until August 2013.
The USDA, in its WASDE report, assumed average farm price of USD12.45/bushel in 2011/12, rising to USD15-17/bushel in 2012/13.
EXHIBIT 3: WASDE US Soyoil Forecasts
Soybean Oil 2010/11 2011/12 Est. 2012/13 Proj. - Aug 2012/13 Proj. -Sept
(m lbs) (m lbs) (m lbs) (m lbs)
Beginning Stocks 3,406 2,425 2,585 2,720
Production 18,888 19,795 17,315 17,145
Imports 159 150 195 195
Supply, Total 22,453 22,370 20,095 20,060
Domestic Disappearance 16,795 18,200 17,600 17,600
Exports 3,233 1,450 1,200 1,200
Use, Total 20,028 19,650 18,800 18,800
Ending stocks 2,425 2,720 1,295 1,260
Avg. Price (US cents/lb) 53.2 52 53.00 - 57.00 54.00 - 58.00
Source: USDA
SOYBEAN OIL: The 12 September WASDE report showed a further 1% decline in production forecast over Augusts estimate. The net result is a 2.7% decline in ending stock in 2012/13. The 2012/13 ending stock figure is 52% of the 2010/11 fuigure and 46% of thje 2011/12 figure extremely tight supply situation.
As a result of the tight supply situation, USDA forecasts soybean oil price will trade at USD0.54-0.58/lb in 2012/13.
The next report by the USDA will be released on 11 October and we believe this will give a truer picture of the crop season, as by then some of the crops would have been started to be harvested. The drought seen in the US still persists even though El Nino is not officially declared yet.
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
4 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
El Nino is now five months old
The Australian Meteorological Departments Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reading was a negative 5.0 points in August, making it the fifth month of successive negative readings. This adds strength to our belief that an El Nino is developing globally. Since March, when the 24-month long La Nina ended, there has been no reversal from El Nino to La Nina, which confirms our belief that this El Nino is going to be a strong event.
EXHIBIT 4: Southern Oscillation Index
Sources: NOAA; BNP Paribas
Following from Julys weaker negative 1.7 points, Augusts negative 5.0 points is a reflection of the dry weather now occurring in the US (see latest Drought Monitor as of 4 September). In the US, severe drought conditions persist and have spread to central US. Some recent rain around Florida has not eased the general conditions.
EXHIBIT 5: US Drought Monitor
Sources: US NOAA
According to the National Drought Mitigation Centre forecast as of 4 September, temperatures should be below normal over the southeast and west coast as well as for much of western Alaska. Temperatures can be expected to be above normal for much of the central and northern Plains, the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains. Much of the country should expect below-normal precipitation, with the desert southwest and
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
La Nia
El Nio
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
5 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
portions of Florida being the only areas showing above-normal chances of precipitation. The drought in the Midwest is said to be the worst drought seen in 76 years
According to the USDAs 4 September Crop Progress Report, only 3% of its corn crop and 4% of the soybean crop are rated in excellent condition. The same time last year, for both it was 11%. More alarming is that crop rated Good amuounted to only 19% for corn and 26% for soybean. At the same time in 2011, the corn number was twice at 41% while soybean number was 45%. This represents the severity of this years crop conditions.
EXHIBIT 6: USA Crop Progress report - 2 September 2012
Crop Progress (2 September 2012) - of the 18 states which account for 94% of 2011 acreage
Corn Conditions (%)
Very poor
Poor
Fair
Good
Excellent
18 States
26
26
26
19
3
Previous week
26
26
26
19
3
Previous year
8
13
27
41
11
Crop Progress (2 September 2012) - of the 18 states which account for 95% of 2011 acreage
Soybean Conditions (%) Very poor
Poor
Fair
Good
Excellent
18 States
16
21
33
26
4
Previous week
17
21
32
26
4
Previous year
5
21
28
45
11
Source: USDA
India and Australia seeing drought conditions
Following on from droughts in the US, Latin America and Russia, India this year is experiencing below average monsoon rainfall. The latest country to be affected by drought is Australia.
The Australian Meteorological Department reported that recent dry conditions in Western and South Australia have exacerbated existing rainfall deficiencies. August rainfall was below average across most of Australia, with the area seeing rainfall some 56% below average. 2012 is ranked as the fifth-driest August since comparable records commenced in 1900. Most of Tasmania, Victoria, and southeastern South Australia recorded near-average monthly total rainfall. The tropical north is seasonally dry at this time of the year, but some areas experienced light rainfall. For Western Australia, August rainfall was well below average, being the driest August since 1995.
Despite the dry weather in most of the globe (El Nino effect in the US, flooding in northern China, droughts in Ukraine and Northern Russia, less rainfall in New Zealand, weaker monsoon rainfall in India and, most recently, drought hitting cocoa growing areas in Western Africa), little of the El Nino effect has been seen in the oil palm growing areas of SE Asia.
But both the Aussie Met and NOAA have forecast that El Nino will be a late 2012 and 2013 event. This means that if El Nino impact starts hitting our shores in SE Asia, then it may come at a time when FFB production has peaked (always September-October period). This means the large stocks seen in August in Malaysia (2.12m tonnes) will be absorbed by the usual pick-up in purchases by the Middle East and India and Africa at year-end.
High Malaysian palm oil stocks likely to persist until end-September
In September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported that end-August palm product stock level was 2.12m tonnes. This was up 6% m-m and 12% y-y and a 10-month high. The main reason was lower exports, down 16% y-y in August, but exports in August were up 10% from July 2012. On a year-to-date basis, exports are up 8% y-y. The lower CPO prices, helped by some substitution and Ramadhan buying, were the main reasons for exports growth.
Production in Malaysian estates has been poor. Overall in August, production fell 2% m-m but was flat y-y. On a year-to-date basis, Malaysians palm oil production was down 7% y-y.
Broken down into geographical areas, Peninsular Malaysia (where trees are generally older) saw production fall 6% year-to-date, while in East Malaysia, production contracted 8% year-to-date. The main reason was lower FFB yields. The average FFB yield in august was 6.6% y-y higher in Peninsular Malaysia
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
6 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
but there was a 13% y-y decline in Sabah plantations. Plantations there were hit by the 2010 dry spell (El Nino lag effect), which caused production to be poor this year.
In past El Ninos, Southeast Asian plantations were badly hit by drought. Production is affected at the time El Nino strikes and a secondary low-flowering phenomenon occurs roughly 24 months after the end of the El Nino event. The El Ninos effect on oil palm and rubber trees in South East Asia is more severe than La Ninas.
We believe that Southeast Asia oil palm lands will be the next to be affected and the Australian Meteorological Department expects the El Nino to intensify towards the end of 2012. This would mean oil palm crops showing a lower yield in 2013.
In Malaysia, where the oil palm trees are generally older than those in Indonesia, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board is expecting 2012 production to be 3% lower at 18.3m tonnes, from 2011s 18.9m tonnes. This forecast does not factor in the possibility of an El Nino. We believe Indonesias production growth will be 6-9% in 2012, about half of 2011s production. As such, we would expect prices to strengthen in the coming months.
We expect CPO-soy oil spread to narrow
We expect CPO to narrow the price gap with soyoil in the coming months, possibly after the peak production month of September. The palm oil price discount to soyoil is now USD330/tonne, due to a spike in soybean prices over the last few days on the back of the bearish production forecast by the USDA.
Increasing news flow suggests the upswing in corn and soybean prices has not ended. In the futures markets, a contango price situation has been the norm of late, something not seen since 2008. But, unlike 2008s soft commodity price rally that was crude oil-led, this rally is led purely by supply shortfalls. We believe the current situation is more fundamental and sustainable. At the current CPO orice of just under MYR3,000/tonne, palm oil is very attractively priced relative to other competing edible oils. With Oil World expecting soft commodity tightness to last into August 2013, there is a window of opportunity to make some good investment gains.
Valuation
We maintain our positive stance on the sector. Our target prices for Malaysian plantations are still based on 15.7x 2012E P/E, and this is based on the five-year mean P/E for the sector. Supply shocks pose an upside risk to the sector P/E. In the meantime, we prefer stocks with exposure to upstream businesses and with high liquidity. Our top pick is Golden Agri-Resources: it has the highest liquidity among plantations, is one of the most leveraged to CPO price changes and is at a sweet spot for strong FFB growth as its plantation is 13 years old. Our other picks are London Sumatra and BW Plantations. A downside risk for the Asia agri sector is a further collapse in crude oil prices, while an upside risk is root rot (ganoderma) disease affecting oil palm plantations on a large scale.
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
7 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
EXHIBIT 7: Relative valuation
Name BBG Share Market Avg. 3M ------P/E------ EPS CAGR -----P/BV----- ------ROE------ --EV/EBITDA-- ------EPS------
code Price cap T/O 12E 13E 11-13E 12E 13E 12E 13E 12E 13E 12E 13E
(LC) (USD m) (USD m) (x) (x) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (LC) (LC)
Genting Plants GENP MK 9.27 2,284 2.1 14.1 10.8 21.3 1.9 1.6 14.4 16.3 9.6 7.2 0.6 0.9
IOI Corp IOI MK 5.11 10,664 5.4 15.2 13.1 23.2 2.8 2.6 17.8 19.7 11.4 10.0 0.3 0.4
KL Kepong KLK MK 22.06 7,645 6.3 13.6 12.9 7.5 3.1 2.7 22.5 20.4 9.4 8.6 1.5 1.7
Sime Darby SIME MK 9.80 19,119 24.5 15.9 13.7 8.4 2.3 2.1 14.8 16.0 9.2 7.9 0.6 0.7
Astra Agro AALI IJ 21,650 3,554 2.0 12.6 9.9 19.8 3.9 3.2 30.9 33.4 8.7 6.9 1527.6 2191.6
London Sumatra LSIP IJ 2,525 1,796 4.4 9.6 8.7 7.7 2.7 2.2 27.6 25.0 6.9 5.8 249.4 289.4
SIMP SIMP IJ 1,310 2,160 0.8 11.6 9.6 13.6 1.6 1.5 13.4 14.5 7.1 6.2 105.4 136.1
Bakrie Sumatera UNSP IJ 131 187 2.0 3.6 3.4 -15.8 0.2 0.2 5.3 5.4 7.5 6.8 55.0 38.9
BW Plantation BWPT IJ 1,510 636 2.2 15.1 9.4 42.6 3.4 2.6 25.5 32.3 10.8 7.1 79.4 161.4
Golden Agri-Resources GGR SP 0.670 6,996 34.0 11.2 9.7 7.1 0.8 0.6 7.1 7.0 8.0 6.9 0.0 0.1
IndoAgri IFAR SP 1.375 1,607 2.9 11.7 9.1 24.4 1.2 1.1 10.3 12.7 6.2 5.7 740.5 1145.9
Wilmar Int'l WIL SP 2.990 15,572 29.1 14.0 10.0 7.3 1.2 1.1 7.9 10.3 13.1 10.1 0.2 0.2
Prices as of 13 September 2012 Sources: Bloomberg; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
8 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Golden Agri-Resources
Profit and Loss (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Revenue 3,505 5,953 5,161 5,352 5,526
Cost of sales ex depreciation (2,842) (5,000) (4,182) (4,251) (4,345)
Gross profit ex depreciation 662 953 980 1,101 1,181
Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Operating costs 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBITDA 662 953 980 1,101 1,181
Depreciation (82) (95) (124) (141) (158)
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT 580 859 855 960 1,023
Net financing costs (25) (50) (46) (36) (24)
Associates 3 1 1 1 1
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items 1,371 903 0 0 0
Profit before tax 1,929 1,712 810 925 1,000
Tax (482) (428) (190) (208) (230)
Profit after tax 1,447 1,284 620 717 770
Minority interests (24) (16) (8) (9) (10)
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 1,423 1,268 612 708 761
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) (1,028) (677) 0 0 0
Recurring net profit 395 591 612 708 761
Per share (USD)
Recurring EPS * 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06
Reported EPS 0.12 0.10 0.05 0.06 0.06
DPS 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Growth
Revenue (%) 52.8 69.9 (13.3) 3.7 3.3
Operating EBITDA (%) 65.2 43.9 2.8 12.4 7.3
Operating EBIT (%) 74.3 48.0 (0.4) 12.2 6.6
Recurring EPS (%) 90.8 48.6 (1.0) 15.6 7.4
Reported EPS (%) 123.2 (10.9) (54.3) 15.6 7.4
Operating performance
Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 16.6 14.4 16.6 17.9 18.5
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 18.9 16.0 19.0 20.6 21.4
Operating EBIT margin (%) 16.6 14.4 16.6 17.9 18.5
Net margin (%) 11.3 9.9 11.9 13.2 13.8
Effective tax rate (%) 25.0 25.0 23.5 22.5 23.0
Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 11.1 13.0 29.4 25.4 23.6
Interest cover (x) 23.3 17.1 18.7 26.9 43.3
Inventory days 66.5 49.9 61.2 57.0 57.7
Debtor days 48.6 41.7 50.2 45.8 45.9
Creditor days 38.3 29.9 40.0 37.2 37.7
Operating ROIC (%) 21.8 24.8 22.3 23.1 22.6
Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 10.7 13.7 11.2 12.0 -
ROIC (%) 4.9 6.0 5.3 5.3 5.1
ROIC - WACC (%) (6.2) (5.1) (5.8) (5.8) -
ROE (%) 6.4 8.0 7.1 7.0 6.6
ROA (%) 4.8 5.9 5.2 5.3 5.1
*Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
Revenue By Division (USD m) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Crude Palm Oil 1,645 2,280 2,359 2,417 2,477
Palm Kernel 220 420 327 391 403
Refinery 1,243 1,201 1,628 1,617 1,613
Soybean 527 728 743 758 773
Sources: Golden Agri-Resources; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
9 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Golden Agri-Resources
Cash Flow (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring net profit 395 591 612 708 761
Depreciation 82 95 124 141 158
Associates & minorities 21 15 7 8 9
Other non-cash items 15 79 (7) (7) (7)
Recurring cash flow 513 780 737 851 921
Change in working capital (345) (130) 119 (24) (21)
Capex - maintenance (324) (446) (446) (446) (446)
Capex - new investment 0 0 0 0 0
Free cash flow to equity (156) 204 410 381 453
Net acquisitions & disposals (144) (91) 0 0 0
Dividends paid (45) (79) (180) (180) (180)
Non recurring cash flows (2) (24) 0 0 0
Net cash flow (347) 10 230 201 274
Equity finance 0 0 0 0 0
Debt finance 278 49 78 0 0
Movement in cash (69) 59 308 201 274
Per share (USD)
Recurring cash flow per share 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07
FCF to equity per share (0.01) 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04
Balance Sheet (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Working capital assets 1,274 1,605 1,404 1,452 1,496
Working capital liabilities (520) (722) (639) (664) (687)
Net working capital 753 883 764 788 809
Tangible fixed assets 1,461 1,760 1,968 2,208 2,430
Operating invested capital 2,214 2,643 2,733 2,996 3,240
Goodwill 117 117 117 117 117
Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 59 95 97 98 98
Other assets 6,986 7,983 8,979 9,974 10,969
Invested capital 9,376 10,839 11,925 13,184 14,424
Cash & equivalents (218) (277) (585) (786) (1,060)
Short term debt 541 422 500 500 500
Long term debt * 444 664 664 664 664
Net debt 766 809 579 378 104
Deferred tax 1,632 1,876 1,876 1,876 1,876
Other liabilities 33 41 41 41 41
Total equity 6,826 8,025 9,334 10,785 12,288
Minority interests 119 87 95 104 114
Invested capital 9,376 10,839 11,925 13,184 14,424
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (USD)
Book value per share 0.56 0.66 0.73 0.84 0.96
Tangible book value per share 0.55 0.65 0.72 0.83 0.95
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) 11.0 10.0 6.1 3.5 0.8
Net debt/total assets (%) 7.6 6.8 4.4 2.6 0.6
Current ratio (x) 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2
CF interest cover (x) (5.2) 5.1 9.9 11.7 20.2
Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring P/E (x) * 16.8 11.3 11.4 9.9 9.2
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 23.3 15.7 15.9 13.7 12.8
Reported P/E (x) 4.6 5.2 11.4 9.9 9.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.7 1.1 2.6 2.6 2.6
P/CF (x) 12.9 8.5 9.5 8.2 7.6
P/FCF (x) (42.4) 32.4 17.1 18.4 15.4
Price/book (x) 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6
Price/tangible book (x) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6
EV/EBITDA (x) ** 11.0 7.9 7.7 6.9 6.2
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** 13.4 9.6 9.4 8.5 7.7
EV/invested capital (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted ** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: Golden Agri-Resources; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
10 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Wilmar Int'l
Profit and Loss (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Revenue 30,378 44,710 46,957 50,905 55,615
Cost of sales ex depreciation (27,870) (40,839) (43,660) (46,429) (50,177)
Gross profit ex depreciation 2,507 3,871 3,298 4,476 5,438
Other operating income 492 746 746 746 746
Operating costs (1,256) (2,145) (2,186) (2,527) (2,932)
Operating EBITDA 1,744 2,472 1,858 2,695 3,252
Depreciation (315) (478) (601) (649) (677)
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT 1,428 1,994 1,257 2,046 2,574
Net financing costs (73) (259) (269) (271) (274)
Associates 38 185 185 185 185
Recurring non operating income 0 (104) 0 0 0
Non recurring items 250 84 0 0 0
Profit before tax 1,643 1,900 1,174 1,960 2,486
Tax (190) (379) (246) (431) (547)
Profit after tax 1,454 1,521 927 1,529 1,939
Minority interests (131) (99) (56) (93) (118)
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 1,323 1,422 871 1,436 1,821
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) (250) (84) 0 0 0
Recurring net profit 1,073 1,338 871 1,436 1,821
Per share (USD)
Recurring EPS * 0.17 0.21 0.14 0.22 0.28
Reported EPS 0.21 0.22 0.14 0.22 0.28
DPS 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.06
Growth
Revenue (%) 27.2 47.2 5.0 8.4 9.3
Operating EBITDA (%) (31.0) 41.8 (24.8) 45.0 20.7
Operating EBIT (%) (37.2) 39.6 (36.9) 62.7 25.8
Recurring EPS (%) (41.1) 24.7 (34.9) 64.7 26.8
Reported EPS (%) (29.8) 7.4 (38.7) 64.7 26.8
Operating performance
Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 7.2 7.6 5.7 7.5 8.6
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 5.7 5.5 4.0 5.3 5.8
Operating EBIT margin (%) 4.7 4.5 2.7 4.0 4.6
Net margin (%) 3.5 3.0 1.9 2.8 3.3
Effective tax rate (%) 11.5 20.0 21.0 22.0 22.0
Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 35.9 20.9 20.0 20.0 20.0
Interest cover (x) 20.1 8.0 5.4 8.2 10.1
Inventory days 69.9 62.6 56.1 51.4 53.8
Debtor days 30.7 27.1 32.3 35.9 35.8
Creditor days 14.8 14.1 15.4 16.1 16.0
Operating ROIC (%) 8.9 9.0 5.1 7.9 9.3
Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 3.4 3.5 - - -
ROIC (%) 5.8 6.4 4.1 6.1 7.2
ROIC - WACC (%) 0.4 0.9 - - -
ROE (%) 9.4 10.6 6.3 9.8 11.4
ROA (%) 4.4 4.5 2.9 4.3 5.2
*Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
Revenue By Division (USD m) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Palm & laurics 16,821 22,917 24,103 27,286 28,650
Oilseeds & grains 10,172 12,670 14,827 16,606 18,599
Consumer products 4,697 6,769 7,243 8,329 9,579
Plantations & palm oil mills 1,485 1,842 2,020 2,603 2,998
Sugar 0 3,210 3,530 3,883 4,271
Others (fertilisers & shipping) 1,159 2,877 3,020 3,172 3,330
Biofuels 859 0 0 0 0
Elimination (4,816) (5,575) (7,786) (10,973) (11,812)
Sources: Wilmar Int'l; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
11 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Wilmar Int'l
Cash Flow (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring net profit 1,073 1,338 871 1,436 1,821
Depreciation 315 478 601 649 677
Associates & minorities 92 (87) (130) (92) (67)
Other non-cash items 38 374 0 0 0
Recurring cash flow 1,519 2,104 1,343 1,992 2,431
Change in working capital (4,132) (2,187) 67 (1,006) (1,286)
Capex - maintenance (3,237) (2,181) (1,200) (1,000) (800)
Capex - new investment 0 0 0 0 0
Free cash flow to equity (5,850) (2,264) 210 (14) 345
Net acquisitions & disposals 1 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (385) (280) 0 0 0
Non recurring cash flows 250 (20) 0 0 0
Net cash flow (5,983) (2,564) 210 (14) 345
Equity finance 111 94 (56) (93) (118)
Debt finance 7,525 3,563 (823) (102) (179)
Movement in cash 1,653 1,092 (669) (208) 48
Per share (USD)
Recurring cash flow per share 0.24 0.33 0.21 0.31 0.38
FCF to equity per share (0.92) (0.35) 0.03 0.00 0.05
Balance Sheet (USD m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Working capital assets 13,238 15,884 16,085 17,227 18,695
Working capital liabilities (3,366) (3,721) (3,988) (4,124) (4,306)
Net working capital 9,873 12,164 12,097 13,103 14,389
Tangible fixed assets 6,112 7,469 8,068 8,419 8,541
Operating invested capital 15,984 19,633 20,165 21,522 22,930
Goodwill 4,401 4,410 4,410 4,410 4,410
Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 2,931 3,627 3,627 3,627 3,627
Other assets 500 369 369 369 369
Invested capital 23,816 28,039 28,571 29,928 31,336
Cash & equivalents (6,788) (7,880) (7,211) (7,003) (7,051)
Short term debt 14,904 18,409 18,409 18,409 18,409
Long term debt * 2,522 2,480 1,606 1,606 1,606
Net debt 10,637 13,009 12,805 13,013 12,965
Deferred tax 475 639 639 639 639
Other liabilities 146 142 142 142 142
Total equity 11,856 13,370 14,106 15,255 16,712
Minority interests 702 878 878 878 878
Invested capital 23,816 28,039 28,571 29,928 31,336
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (USD)
Book value per share 1.85 2.09 2.20 2.38 2.61
Tangible book value per share 1.17 1.40 1.51 1.69 1.92
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) 84.7 91.3 85.5 80.7 73.7
Net debt/total assets (%) 31.3 32.8 32.2 31.7 30.4
Current ratio (x) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1
CF interest cover (x) (79.0) (7.7) 1.8 1.0 2.3
Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring P/E (x) * 14.7 11.8 18.0 11.0 8.6
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 15.1 12.1 18.6 11.3 8.9
Reported P/E (x) 11.9 11.1 18.0 10.9 8.6
Dividend yield (%) 2.4 1.8 1.1 1.8 2.3
P/CF (x) 10.3 7.5 11.7 7.9 6.5
P/FCF (x) (2.7) (6.9) 74.9 (1,160.1) 45.5
Price/book (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
Price/tangible book (x) 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3
EV/EBITDA (x) ** 13.4 11.1 14.4 10.2 8.6
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** 12.3 10.2 13.4 9.5 8.0
EV/invested capital (x) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted ** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: Wilmar Int'l; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
12 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements KL Kepong
Profit and Loss (MYR m) Year Ending Sep 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Revenue 7,491 10,743 10,873 11,880 12,335
Cost of sales ex depreciation (5,900) (8,421) (8,164) (8,977) (9,355)
Gross profit ex depreciation 1,590 2,322 2,708 2,903 2,980
Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Operating costs 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBITDA 1,590 2,322 2,708 2,903 2,980
Depreciation (211) (231) (263) (296) (328)
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT 1,380 2,092 2,445 2,607 2,651
Net financing costs (34) (53) (58) (58) (58)
Associates 37 28 28 29 29
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items 0 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax 1,383 2,066 2,416 2,578 2,623
Tax (316) (421) (607) (671) (681)
Profit after tax 1,067 1,646 1,808 1,906 1,941
Minority interests (55) (74) (81) (86) (87)
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 1,012 1,571 1,727 1,821 1,854
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring net profit 1,012 1,571 1,727 1,821 1,854
Per share (MYR)
Recurring EPS * 0.95 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.74
Reported EPS 0.95 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.74
DPS 0.45 0.60 0.63 0.63 0.63
Growth
Revenue (%) 12.5 43.4 1.2 9.3 3.8
Operating EBITDA (%) 36.8 46.0 16.6 7.2 2.6
Operating EBIT (%) 53.9 51.6 16.9 6.6 1.7
Recurring EPS (%) 65.3 55.2 9.6 5.4 1.8
Reported EPS (%) 65.3 55.2 9.6 5.4 1.8
Operating performance
Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 18.4 19.5 22.5 21.9 21.5
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 21.2 21.6 24.9 24.4 24.2
Operating EBIT margin (%) 18.4 19.5 22.5 21.9 21.5
Net margin (%) 13.5 14.6 15.9 15.3 15.0
Effective tax rate (%) 22.8 20.4 25.1 26.0 26.0
Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 47.3 40.7 38.9 36.9 36.2
Interest cover (x) 41.6 39.9 42.7 45.5 46.2
Inventory days 67.1 64.2 75.2 72.0 73.6
Debtor days 45.5 38.8 48.4 46.7 47.8
Creditor days 36.9 31.4 37.3 35.7 36.5
Operating ROIC (%) 25.9 33.9 34.9 33.9 31.8
Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 18.3 26.3 27.3 26.4 -
ROIC (%) 15.3 20.4 21.7 21.8 21.0
ROIC - WACC (%) 7.7 12.8 14.1 14.2 -
ROE (%) 17.4 24.0 22.5 20.4 18.1
ROA (%) 12.3 16.7 16.0 15.1 13.8
*Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
Revenue By Division (MYR m) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Plantation 3,536 4,880 4,671 5,245 5,403
Manufacturing 3,247 5,135 5,392 5,662 5,945
Retailing 614 651 664 677 691
Property development 30 5 100 250 250
Investment holding 41 51 24 24 24
Others 22 20 21 22 22
Sources: KL Kepong; BNP Paribas estimates
-
Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
13 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements KL Kepong
Cash Flow (MYR m) Year Ending Sep 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring net profit 1,012 1,571 1,727 1,821 1,854
Depreciation 211 231 263 296 328
Associates & minorities 18 46 53 57 58
Other non-cash items (229) (134) 10 10 12
Recurring cash flow 1,011 1,714 2,053 2,184 2,252
Change in working capital (169) (714) (27) (212) (97)
Capex - maintenance (348) (444) (600) (600) (600)
Capex - new investment 0 0 0 0 0
Free cash flow to equity 493 556 1,426 1,371 1,555
Net acquisitions & disposals 20 146 0 0 0
Dividends paid (479) (639) (504) (504) (505)
Non recurring cash flows 40 22 0 0 0
Net cash flow 75 85 922 868 1,051
Equity finance (31) (41) (40) (40) (40)
Debt finance (82) 358 (58) (58) (58)
Movement in cash (39) 402 825 770 953
Per share (MYR)
Recurring cash flow per share 0.95 1.61 1.92 2.05 2.11
FCF to equity per share 0.46 0.52 1.34 1.28 1.46
Balance Sheet (MYR m) Year Ending Sep 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Working capital assets 2,140 3,107 3,145 3,436 3,568
Working capital liabilities (690) (944) (954) (1,032) (1,068)
Net working capital 1,450 2,164 2,191 2,404 2,500
Tangible fixed assets 2,765 2,886 3,281 3,642 3,971
Operating invested capital 4,215 5,050 5,472 6,046 6,471
Goodwill 322 338 338 338 338
Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 2,431 2,715 2,715 2,715 2,715
Other assets 250 253 253 253 253
Invested capital 7,218 8,356 8,778 9,352 9,777
Cash & equivalents (1,255) (1,670) (2,480) (3,250) (4,204)
Short term debt 580 1,564 1,564 1,564 1,564
Long term debt * 1,107 526 526 526 526
Net debt 432 419 (391) (1,161) (2,114)
Deferred tax 242 246 246 246 246
Other liabilities 219 225 225 225 225
Total equity 6,005 7,074 8,264 9,562 10,892
Minority interests 320 392 434 481 528
Invested capital 7,218 8,356 8,778 9,352 9,777
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (MYR)
Book value per share 5.64 6.64 7.74 8.96 10.20
Tangible book value per share 5.34 6.33 7.43 8.64 9.89
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) 6.8 5.6 (4.5) (11.6) (18.5)
Net debt/total assets (%) 4.7 3.8 (3.2) (8.5) (14.0)
Current ratio (x) 2.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.0
CF interest cover (x) 15.5 11.5 25.6 24.6 27.8
Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring P/E (x) * 23.2 15.0 13.7 13.0 12.7
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 27.6 17.8 16.2 15.4 15.1
Reported P/E (x) 23.2 15.0 13.7 13.0 12.7
Dividend yield (%) 2.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8
P/CF (x) 23.3 13.7 11.5 10.8 10.5
P/FCF (x) 47.7 42.3 16.5 17.2 15.2
Price/book (x) 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.2
Price/tangible book (x) 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.2
EV/EBITDA (x) ** 14.9 10.3 8.8 7.9 7.5
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** 17.6 12.2 10.4 9.4 8.9
EV/invested capital (x) 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.3
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted ** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: KL Kepong; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
14 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements IOI Corp
Profit and Loss (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Revenue 12,540 17,658 16,723 17,728 18,727
Cost of sales ex depreciation (9,972) (15,653) (13,616) (14,204) (14,923)
Gross profit ex depreciation 2,568 2,005 3,107 3,524 3,804
Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Operating costs 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBITDA 2,568 2,005 3,107 3,524 3,804
Depreciation (219) (276) (254) (264) (275)
Goodwill amortisation (13) 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT 2,337 1,729 2,853 3,260 3,530
Net financing costs 103 (123) (91) (42) (26)
Associates 55 120 120 120 120
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items 54 0 0 0 1
Profit before tax 2,549 1,726 2,882 3,338 3,624
Tax (486) 0 (720) (835) (905)
Profit after tax 2,063 1,726 2,161 2,504 2,719
Minority interests (29) 0 0 0 1
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 2,034 1,726 2,161 2,504 2,720
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) (31) 0 0 0 (1)
Recurring net profit 2,003 1,726 2,161 2,504 2,719
Per share (MYR)
Recurring EPS * 0.30 0.26 0.34 0.39 0.42
Reported EPS 0.31 0.27 0.34 0.39 0.43
DPS 0.09 0.18 0.24 0.24 0.26
Growth
Revenue (%) (14.1) 40.8 (5.3) 6.0 5.6
Operating EBITDA (%) (3.5) (21.9) 55.0 13.4 7.9
Operating EBIT (%) (3.9) (26.0) 65.1 14.3 8.3
Recurring EPS (%) 62.4 (13.9) 31.1 15.8 8.6
Reported EPS (%) 98.3 (14.1) 25.3 15.8 8.7
Operating performance
Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 18.7 9.8 17.1 18.4 18.8
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 20.5 11.4 18.6 19.9 20.3
Operating EBIT margin (%) 18.6 9.8 17.1 18.4 18.8
Net margin (%) 16.0 9.8 12.9 14.1 14.5
Effective tax rate (%) 19.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 29.3 70.1 69.8 62.2 61.4
Interest cover (x) - 15.1 32.7 81.1 138.9
Inventory days 59.0 49.3 69.1 66.3 66.7
Debtor days 38.5 31.3 36.5 34.5 34.5
Creditor days 34.7 24.8 31.0 29.7 29.9
Operating ROIC (%) 24.3 16.4 23.5 26.4 27.5
Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 14.8 6.9 13.9 16.8 -
ROIC (%) 15.6 10.6 14.5 16.3 17.3
ROIC - WACC (%) 6.1 1.1 5.0 6.8 -
ROE (%) 20.9 15.1 17.8 19.7 19.8
ROA (%) 11.7 9.9 11.5 13.3 13.9
*Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
Revenue By Division (MYR m) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Plantation 1,988 2,435 2,750 3,350 3,721
Property Development 946 972 1,070 1,177 1,295
Property Investment 98 96 101 106 113
Manufacturing 11,003 14,156 14,864 15,607 16,388
Others 141 0 0 0 0
Less inter segment (1,635) 0 (2,062) (2,512) (2,790)
Sources: IOI Corp; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
15 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements IOI Corp
Cash Flow (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring net profit 2,003 1,726 2,161 2,504 2,719
Depreciation 219 276 254 264 275
Associates & minorities (25) (120) (120) (120) (121)
Other non-cash items (400) (949) (1,528) 325 257
Recurring cash flow 1,796 933 768 2,973 3,131
Change in working capital 211 (1,162) 177 (181) (170)
Capex - maintenance (565) (432) (435) (435) (435)
Capex - new investment 0 0 0 0 0
Free cash flow to equity 1,442 (661) 510 2,357 2,526
Net acquisitions & disposals (1) (1,301) 0 0 0
Dividends paid (531) (1,206) (934) (1,620) (1,665)
Non recurring cash flows 7 386 0 0 0
Net cash flow 917 (2,782) (425) 737 860
Equity finance 1,181 39 0 0 0
Debt finance (651) 492 (105) (1,042) (186)
Movement in cash 1,447 (2,251) (530) (305) 675
Per share (MYR)
Recurring cash flow per share 0.28 0.15 0.12 0.46 0.49
FCF to equity per share 0.22 (0.10) 0.08 0.37 0.39
Balance Sheet (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Working capital assets 3,283 4,918 4,675 4,923 5,157
Working capital liabilities (1,024) (1,497) (1,431) (1,498) (1,563)
Net working capital 2,259 3,421 3,244 3,425 3,594
Tangible fixed assets 5,464 5,707 5,855 6,026 6,186
Operating invested capital 7,724 9,128 9,099 9,451 9,780
Goodwill 514 512 512 512 512
Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 2,121 3,786 3,786 3,786 3,786
Other assets 2,084 1,947 1,947 1,947 1,947
Invested capital 12,443 15,373 15,344 15,695 16,025
Cash & equivalents (3,877) (2,786) (2,256) (1,951) (2,627)
Short term debt 409 791 858 0 0
Long term debt * 4,348 4,606 3,761 3,713 3,660
Net debt 880 2,612 2,363 1,761 1,033
Deferred tax 465 453 453 453 453
Other liabilities 28 46 46 46 46
Total equity 10,780 11,999 12,220 13,172 14,230
Minority interests 289 262 262 262 262
Invested capital 12,443 15,373 15,344 15,695 16,025
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (MYR)
Book value per share 1.61 1.87 1.90 2.05 2.22
Tangible book value per share 1.54 1.79 1.82 1.97 2.14
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) 8.0 21.3 18.9 13.1 7.1
Net debt/total assets (%) 5.1 13.3 12.4 9.2 5.1
Current ratio (x) 5.0 3.4 3.0 4.6 5.0
CF interest cover (x) - (4.4) 6.6 57.6 97.1
Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring P/E (x) * 16.8 19.5 14.9 12.8 11.8
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 18.1 21.0 16.0 13.8 12.7
Reported P/E (x) 15.9 18.5 14.8 12.8 11.8
Dividend yield (%) 1.7 3.6 4.7 4.9 5.2
P/CF (x) 18.0 34.3 41.7 10.8 10.2
P/FCF (x) 22.4 (48.4) 62.7 13.6 12.7
Price/book (x) 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3
Price/tangible book (x) 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3
EV/EBITDA (x) ** 13.2 16.4 10.8 9.4 8.6
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** 14.2 17.6 11.6 10.1 9.3
EV/invested capital (x) 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted ** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: IOI Corp; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
16 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Genting Plantations
Profit and Loss (MYR m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Revenue 989 1,336 1,377 1,611 1,761
Cost of sales ex depreciation (548) (729) (704) (743) (797)
Gross profit ex depreciation 440 608 673 868 964
Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Operating costs 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBITDA 440 608 673 868 964
Depreciation (30) (37) (47) (57) (67)
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT 410 571 625 811 898
Net financing costs 15 24 34 40 51
Associates 5 6 6 6 6
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items 10 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax 440 601 665 858 955
Tax (116) (159) (167) (206) (229)
Profit after tax 324 443 498 652 726
Minority interests 0 (1) (1) (1) (1)
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 324 442 498 651 725
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) (10) 0 0 0 0
Recurring net profit 315 442 498 651 725
Per share (MYR)
Recurring EPS * 0.41 0.58 0.66 0.86 0.96
Reported EPS 0.43 0.58 0.66 0.86 0.96
DPS 0.05 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Growth
Revenue (%) 30.8 35.2 3.0 17.0 9.3
Operating EBITDA (%) 41.2 38.0 10.7 29.0 11.1
Operating EBIT (%) 43.3 39.3 9.5 29.7 10.7
Recurring EPS (%) 33.5 40.5 12.6 30.8 11.4
Reported EPS (%) 37.5 36.3 12.6 30.8 11.4
Operating performance
Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 41.5 42.7 45.4 50.3 51.0
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 44.5 45.5 48.9 53.9 54.7
Operating EBIT margin (%) 41.5 42.7 45.4 50.3 51.0
Net margin (%) 31.8 33.1 36.1 40.4 41.2
Effective tax rate (%) 26.3 26.4 25.1 24.0 24.0
Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 11.3 20.1 17.8 13.6 12.2
Interest cover (x) - - - - -
Inventory days 101.8 70.8 67.8 70.7 74.4
Debtor days 54.6 33.2 30.5 28.7 29.6
Creditor days 101.5 95.3 106.3 110.9 116.6
Operating ROIC (%) 31.9 43.0 39.7 41.5 38.9
Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 23.8 34.9 31.5 33.4 30.8
ROIC (%) 12.8 15.8 15.7 18.4 18.8
ROIC - WACC (%) 4.6 7.6 7.5 10.2 10.6
ROE (%) 11.6 14.5 14.4 16.3 15.5
ROA (%) 9.5 11.1 10.9 12.7 12.3
*Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
Revenue By Division (MYR m) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Plantation 900 1,200 1,233 1,461 1,603
Property 88 136 143 150 158
Sources: Genting Plantations; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
17 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Genting Plantations
Cash Flow (MYR m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring net profit 315 442 498 651 725
Depreciation 30 37 47 57 67
Associates & minorities (5) (6) (6) (5) (5)
Other non-cash items 42 88 (1) (1) (1)
Recurring cash flow 382 561 538 702 785
Change in working capital 107 (7) (5) (29) (19)
Capex - maintenance (271) (253) (253) (253) (253)
Capex - new investment 0 0 0 0 0
Free cash flow to equity 218 301 280 419 514
Net acquisitions & disposals (101) (117) 0 0 0
Dividends paid (53) (73) (67) (67) (67)
Non recurring cash flows (1) (8) (8) (8) (8)
Net cash flow 63 103 206 345 439
Equity finance (2) (5) (5) (5) (5)
Debt finance 197 163 0 0 0
Movement in cash 259 261 201 340 434
Per share (MYR)
Recurring cash flow per share 0.50 0.74 0.71 0.93 1.04
FCF to equity per share 0.29 0.40 0.37 0.55 0.68
Balance Sheet (MYR m) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Working capital assets 353 390 401 466 508
Working capital liabilities (201) (231) (237) (273) (296)
Net working capital 152 159 164 193 212
Tangible fixed assets 772 882 1,129 1,366 1,595
Operating invested capital 924 1,041 1,293 1,560 1,806
Goodwill 187 187 187 187 187
Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 1,115 1,322 1,318 1,319 1,320
Other assets 340 309 317 324 332
Invested capital 2,565 2,858 3,114 3,390 3,646
Cash & equivalents (756) (1,017) (1,218) (1,558) (1,992)
Short term debt 1 0 0 0 0
Long term debt * 254 427 427 427 427
Net debt (501) (590) (791) (1,131) (1,565)
Deferred tax 48 50 50 50 50
Other liabilities 39 46 46 46 46
Total equity 2,869 3,234 3,695 4,315 5,009
Minority interests 111 118 113 109 105
Invested capital 2,565 2,858 3,114 3,390 3,646
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (MYR)
Book value per share 3.78 4.27 4.88 5.69 6.61
Tangible book value per share 3.54 4.02 4.63 5.45 6.36
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) (16.8) (17.6) (20.8) (25.6) (30.6)
Net debt/total assets (%) (14.2) (14.4) (17.3) (21.7) (26.4)
Current ratio (x) 5.5 6.1 6.8 7.4 8.4
CF interest cover (x) - - - - -
Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring P/E (x) * 22.4 15.9 14.1 10.8 9.7
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 25.5 18.2 16.1 12.3 11.1
Reported P/E (x) 21.7 15.9 14.1 10.8 9.7
Dividend yield (%) 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
P/CF (x) 18.4 12.5 13.1 10.0 9.0
P/FCF (x) 32.2 23.4 25.1 16.8 13.7
Price/book (x) 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4
Price/tangible book (x) 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.5
EV/EBITDA (x) ** 14.9 10.8 9.5 7.1 6.0
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** 17.2 12.4 11.0 8.2 7.0
EV/invested capital (x) 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.5
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted ** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: Genting Plantations; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
18 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Sime Darby
Profit and Loss (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Revenue 32,506 41,859 43,758 48,695 51,984
Cost of sales ex depreciation (29,278) (36,347) (38,185) (42,133) (45,402)
Gross profit ex depreciation 3,229 5,512 5,573 6,562 6,582
Other operating income 821 984 1,033 1,085 1,139
Operating costs 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBITDA 4,050 6,496 6,606 7,647 7,721
Depreciation (897) (1,007) (1,038) (1,160) (1,240)
Goodwill amortisation (7) (6) (6) (6) (6)
Operating EBIT 3,146 5,483 5,561 6,480 6,475
Net financing costs (158) (153) (129) (129) (127)
Associates (169) 118 118 118 118
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items (1,058) 1 0 0 0
Profit before tax 1,760 5,451 5,551 6,470 6,466
Tax (905) (1,603) (1,632) (1,902) (1,901)
Profit after tax 855 3,848 3,918 4,567 4,565
Minority interests (128) (183) (220) (264) (317)
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 727 3,665 3,698 4,303 4,248
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) 1,065 5 6 6 6
Recurring net profit 1,792 3,669 3,705 4,309 4,254
Per share (MYR)
Recurring EPS * 0.30 0.61 0.62 0.72 0.71
Reported EPS 0.12 0.61 0.62 0.72 0.71
DPS 0.23 0.12 0.31 0.36 0.35
Growth
Revenue (%) 4.8 28.8 4.5 11.3 6.8
Operating EBITDA (%) 2.0 60.4 1.7 15.8 1.0
Operating EBIT (%) (0.2) 74.3 1.4 16.5 (0.1)
Recurring EPS (%) (23.9) 104.8 1.0 16.3 (1.3)
Reported EPS (%) (68.1) 404.2 0.9 16.4 (1.3)
Operating performance
Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 7.2 10.8 10.4 11.1 10.3
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 12.5 15.5 15.1 15.7 14.9
Operating EBIT margin (%) 9.7 13.1 12.7 13.3 12.5
Net margin (%) 5.5 8.8 8.5 8.8 8.2
Effective tax rate (%) 51.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4
Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 78.4 19.8 49.9 49.9 49.9
Interest cover (x) 18.9 36.8 44.0 51.2 51.8
Inventory days 67.6 63.1 72.6 72.3 74.7
Debtor days 67.0 55.1 59.5 57.8 58.9
Creditor days 84.0 79.2 84.8 82.8 83.9
Operating ROIC (%) 8.3 19.8 18.2 19.4 17.8
Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 0.5 11.9 10.3 11.5 9.9
ROIC (%) 5.8 15.0 14.0 15.3 14.3
ROIC - WACC (%) (2.1) 7.1 6.2 7.4 6.4
ROE (%) 8.6 16.5 14.8 16.0 14.6
ROA (%) 5.5 9.8 9.1 10.0 9.4
*Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
Revenue By Division (MYR m) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Plantations 10,858 13,168 13,997 16,835 17,851
Property 1,785 1,987 1,884 2,023 2,172
Automotive 10,098 14,818 14,433 15,287 16,191
Heavy equipment 8,313 10,271 10,478 11,321 12,239
Energy & utilities 953 1,085 2,437 2,701 3,001
Other non-core businesses 500 529 529 529 529
Sources: Sime Darby; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
19 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Sime Darby
Cash Flow (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring net profit 1,792 3,669 3,705 4,309 4,254
Depreciation 897 1,007 1,038 1,160 1,240
Associates & minorities 297 65 102 146 199
Other non-cash items 179 (670) (522) (523) (671)
Recurring cash flow 3,165 4,071 4,323 5,092 5,022
Change in working capital 1,557 (1,345) (353) (904) (615)
Capex - maintenance (2,400) (1,490) (1,994) (1,994) (1,494)
Capex - new investment 0 0 0 0 0
Free cash flow to equity 2,323 1,236 1,975 2,195 2,913
Net acquisitions & disposals (37) (50) 493 (147) 0
Dividends paid (1,404) (727) (1,849) (2,152) 0
Non recurring cash flows (1,058) 1 0 0 0
Net cash flow (177) 460 620 (103) 2,913
Equity finance (68) (77) (220) (264) (317)
Debt finance 1,426 37 (11) (11) (2,133)
Movement in cash 1,181 420 389 (378) 463
Per share (MYR)
Recurring cash flow per share 0.53 0.68 0.72 0.85 0.84
FCF to equity per share 0.39 0.21 0.33 0.37 0.48
Balance Sheet (MYR m) Year Ending Jun 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Working capital assets 14,117 17,538 18,329 20,185 21,586
Working capital liabilities (8,038) (10,114) (10,551) (11,504) (12,290)
Net working capital 6,079 7,424 7,777 8,681 9,295
Tangible fixed assets 12,256 13,442 14,550 16,175 17,222
Operating invested capital 18,335 20,866 22,327 24,856 26,517
Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 109 86 86 86 86
Investments 997 1,107 1,107 1,107 1,107
Other assets 5,608 5,782 5,782 5,782 5,782
Invested capital 25,048 27,841 29,302 31,831 33,493
Cash & equivalents (4,491) (4,911) (5,299) (4,922) (5,385)
Short term debt 3,302 3,055 3,055 3,055 3,055
Long term debt * 4,287 4,008 4,008 4,008 4,008
Net debt 3,098 2,151 1,763 2,141 1,678
Deferred tax 495 492 492 492 492
Other liabilities 0 44 44 44 44
Total equity 20,450 24,030 25,880 28,031 30,155
Minority interests 681 787 787 787 787
Invested capital 25,048 27,841 29,302 31,831 33,493
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (MYR)
Book value per share 3.40 4.00 4.31 4.66 5.02
Tangible book value per share 3.38 3.98 4.29 4.65 5.00
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) 14.7 8.7 6.6 7.4 5.4
Net debt/total assets (%) 8.2 5.0 3.9 4.4 3.3
Current ratio (x) 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
CF interest cover (x) 15.7 9.1 16.3 18.0 23.9
Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring P/E (x) * 32.7 16.0 15.8 13.6 13.8
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 30.7 15.0 14.8 12.8 12.9
Reported P/E (x) 80.6 16.0 15.8 13.6 13.8
Dividend yield (%) 2.4 1.2 3.2 3.7 3.6
P/CF (x) 18.5 14.4 13.6 11.5 11.7
P/FCF (x) 25.2 47.4 29.7 26.7 20.1
Price/book (x) 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9
Price/tangible book (x) 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9
EV/EBITDA (x) ** 16.0 9.4 9.1 7.9 7.8
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** 15.0 8.8 8.6 7.4 7.3
EV/invested capital (x) 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted ** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: Sime Darby; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
20 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Indofood Agri Resources
Profit and Loss (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Revenue 9,484 12,605 14,437 16,190 17,240
Cost of sales ex depreciation (5,312) (7,517) (8,908) (9,963) (10,552)
Gross profit ex depreciation 4,172 5,089 5,529 6,227 6,688
Other operating income 56 70 0 0 0
Operating costs (1,146) (1,363) (1,326) (1,446) (1,483)
Operating EBITDA 3,081 3,795 4,203 4,781 5,205
Depreciation (421) (488) (590) (662) (740)
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT 2,660 3,308 3,613 4,120 4,464
Net financing costs (311) (177) (250) (206) (147)
Associates (4) (2) 0 0 0
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items 309 425 0 0 0
Profit before tax 2,655 3,553 3,363 3,913 4,317
Tax (749) (913) (867) (991) (1,082)
Profit after tax 1,906 2,641 2,496 2,922 3,236
Minority interests (504) (1,151) (1,209) (1,274) (1,344)
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 1,402 1,490 1,287 1,649 1,891
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) (309) (425) 0 0 0
Recurring net profit 1,093 1,065 1,287 1,649 1,891
Per share (IDR)
Recurring EPS * 755 740 894 1,146 1,314
Reported EPS 968 1,036 894 1,146 1,314
DPS 0.00 21.76 21.76 29.01 36.27
Growth
Revenue (%) - 32.9 14.5 12.1 6.5
Operating EBITDA (%) - 23.2 10.7 13.8 8.9
Operating EBIT (%) - 24.4 9.2 14.0 8.4
Recurring EPS (%) - (1.9) 20.8 28.1 14.7
Reported EPS (%) - 6.9 (13.6) 28.1 14.7
Operating performance
Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 39.5 36.5 34.2 34.4 34.5
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 32.5 30.1 29.1 29.5 30.2
Operating EBIT margin (%) 28.0 26.2 25.0 25.4 25.9
Net margin (%) 11.5 8.5 8.9 10.2 11.0
Effective tax rate (%) 28.2 25.7 25.8 25.3 25.1
Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 0.0 2.9 2.4 2.5 2.8
Interest cover (x) 8.6 18.6 14.5 20.0 30.3
Inventory days - 72.8 70.0 67.3 69.1
Debtor days - 28.0 26.6 25.6 26.3
Creditor days - 58.1 42.8 31.4 32.2
Operating ROIC (%) - 29.8 28.0 27.9 27.2
Operating ROIC - WACC (%) - - - - -
ROIC (%) - 10.2 10.4 11.4 11.5
ROIC - WACC (%) - - - - -
ROE (%) - 8.9 10.3 12.7 12.9
ROA (%) - 7.6 8.1 9.2 9.6
*Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
Revenue By Division (IDR b) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Plantations 2,867 3,536 4,247 4,741 4,929
Edible Oils & Fats 6,617 9,070 10,190 11,449 12,311
Sources: Indofood Agri; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
21 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Indofood Agri Resources
Cash Flow (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring net profit 1,093 1,065 1,287 1,649 1,891
Depreciation 421 488 590 662 740
Associates & minorities 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-cash items 1,802 2,625 2,326 2,471 2,573
Recurring cash flow 3,316 4,178 4,203 4,781 5,204
Change in working capital (1,379) (1,410) (2,102) (1,879) (1,881)
Capex - maintenance (973) (880) (1,444) (911) (1,132)
Capex - new investment 0 0 0 0 0
Free cash flow to equity 964 1,889 657 1,991 2,191
Net acquisitions & disposals (53) (6) 0 0 0
Dividends paid 0 0 (31) (31) (42)
Non recurring cash flows (1,364) 2,263 (437) (358) (256)
Net cash flow (453) 4,145 188 1,601 1,893
Equity finance 841 (250) 0 0 0
Debt finance 1,622 (1,160) (1,625) (2,172) (2,300)
Movement in cash 2,010 2,735 (1,437) (571) (407)
Per share (IDR)
Recurring cash flow per share 2,291 2,904 2,921 3,323 3,617
FCF to equity per share 666 1,313 457 1,384 1,523
Balance Sheet (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Working capital assets 2,322 2,902 3,192 3,541 3,758
Working capital liabilities (1,310) (1,458) (1,441) (1,502) (1,527)
Net working capital 1,012 1,444 1,751 2,039 2,231
Tangible fixed assets 6,791 7,245 8,689 9,600 10,732
Operating invested capital 7,803 8,690 10,440 11,640 12,963
Goodwill 3,156 3,156 2,383 2,454 2,528
Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 413 263 0 0 0
Other assets 11,710 13,106 13,292 13,979 14,666
Invested capital 23,083 25,214 26,116 28,073 30,158
Cash & equivalents (3,796) (6,535) (5,098) (4,528) (4,121)
Short term debt 2,816 3,334 2,821 2,665 2,520
Long term debt * 5,678 3,926 3,055 2,443 1,905
Net debt 4,698 725 778 580 304
Deferred tax 1,826 2,025 1,748 1,870 2,001
Other liabilities 285 335 0 0 0
Total equity 11,010 12,819 12,182 13,797 15,545
Minority interests 4,690 8,622 11,409 11,826 12,307
Invested capital 23,083 25,214 26,116 28,073 30,158
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (IDR)
Book value per share 7,605 8,909 8,467 9,589 10,804
Tangible book value per share 5,425 6,716 6,810 7,883 9,048
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) 29.9 3.4 3.3 2.3 1.1
Net debt/total assets (%) 16.7 2.2 2.4 1.7 0.9
Current ratio (x) 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9
CF interest cover (x) 4.1 11.6 3.6 10.7 15.9
Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring P/E (x) * 14.1 14.4 11.9 9.3 8.1
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 13.6 13.9 11.5 9.0 7.8
Reported P/E (x) 11.0 10.3 11.9 9.3 8.1
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
P/CF (x) 4.7 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.0
P/FCF (x) 16.0 8.1 23.4 7.7 7.0
Price/book (x) 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0
Price/tangible book (x) 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2
EV/EBITDA (x) ** - 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.4
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** - 24,804.1 25,019.6 22,174.2 20,523.8
EV/invested capital (x) 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted ** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: Indofood Agri; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
22 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements London Sumatra
Profit and Loss (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Revenue 3,593 4,686 5,150 5,586 5,708
Cost of sales ex depreciation (1,617) (2,087) (2,387) (2,606) (2,772)
Gross profit ex depreciation 1,975 2,600 2,763 2,980 2,936
Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Operating costs (372) (369) (374) (388) (409)
Operating EBITDA 1,603 2,230 2,389 2,591 2,527
Depreciation (204) (237) (246) (252) (258)
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT 1,400 1,993 2,143 2,339 2,270
Net financing costs (18) 97 96 129 163
Associates 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items 0 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax 1,382 2,091 2,239 2,468 2,433
Tax (348) (389) (448) (494) (487)
Profit after tax 1,033 1,702 1,791 1,975 1,946
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 1,033 1,702 1,791 1,975 1,946
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring net profit 1,033 1,702 1,791 1,975 1,946
Per share (IDR)
Recurring EPS * 151 249 262 289 285
Reported EPS 151 249 262 289 285
DPS 41.80 61.00 74.82 65.62 72.35
Growth
Revenue (%) 12.3 30.4 9.9 8.5 2.2
Operating EBITDA (%) 36.3 39.1 7.1 8.5 (2.5)
Operating EBIT (%) 37.4 42.4 7.5 9.2 (3.0)
Recurring EPS (%) 46.1 64.7 5.3 10.3 (1.4)
Reported EPS (%) 46.1 64.7 5.3 10.3 (1.4)
Operating performance
Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 49.3 50.4 48.9 48.8 46.9
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 44.6 47.6 46.4 46.4 44.3
Operating EBIT margin (%) 39.0 42.5 41.6 41.9 39.8
Net margin (%) 28.8 36.3 34.8 35.4 34.1
Effective tax rate (%) 25.2 18.6 20.0 20.0 20.0
Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 27.6 24.5 28.5 22.7 25.4
Interest cover (x) 78.9 - - - -
Inventory days 51.5 55.3 40.8 24.2 24.4
Debtor days 4.6 5.0 5.6 3.8 4.0
Creditor days 16.0 16.9 12.6 7.9 8.0
Operating ROIC (%) 30.7 44.3 45.7 51.6 50.4
Operating ROIC WACC (%) 15.9 29.5 - - -
ROIC (%) 28.0 40.7 41.9 47.0 45.6
ROIC WACC (%) 13.2 25.9 - - -
ROE (%) 24.7 32.7 27.6 25.0 20.8
ROA (%) 20.1 26.3 23.2 21.3 17.7
*Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
Revenue By Division (IDR b) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Oil palm & palm kernel 2,818 3,774 4,363 4,796 4,889
Rubber 537 595 427 426 448
Seed 193 274 309 314 320
Others 45 51 50 50 51
Sources: London Sumatra; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
23 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements London Sumatra
Cash Flow (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring net profit 1,033 1,702 1,791 1,975 1,946
Depreciation 204 237 246 252 258
Associates & minorities 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring cash flow 1,237 1,939 2,037 2,227 2,204
Change in working capital 95 (267) 156 (46) (37)
Capex - maintenance (59) (59) (25) (28) (30)
Capex new investment (336) (335) (140) (157) (171)
Free cash flow to equity 937 1,278 2,028 1,997 1,966
Net acquisitions & disposals 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (285) (416) (510) (448) (494)
Non recurring cash flows 62 42 0 0 0
Net cash flow 713 903 1,518 1,549 1,472
Equity finance 0 0 0 0 0
Debt finance (235) 0 0 0 0
Movement in cash 478 903 1,518 1,549 1,472
Per share (IDR)
Recurring cash flow per share 181 284 299 326 323
FCF to equity per share 137 187 297 293 288
Balance Sheet (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Working capital assets 327 504 258 279 293
Working capital liabilities (622) (531) (442) (417) (394)
Net working capital (295) (28) (184) (138) (101)
Tangible fixed assets 3,748 3,901 3,820 3,752 3,695
Operating invested capital 3,453 3,873 3,636 3,614 3,594
Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 0 0 0 0 0
Other assets 327 323 344 367 390
Invested capital 3,779 4,197 3,980 3,980 3,984
Cash & equivalents (1,161) (2,064) (3,582) (5,131) (6,603)
Short term debt 0 0 0 0 0
Long term debt * 0 0 0 0 0
Net debt (1,161) (2,064) (3,582) (5,131) (6,603)
Deferred tax 55 33 34 36 38
Other liabilities 331 389 408 428 450
Total equity 4,554 5,839 7,120 8,647 10,099
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0
Invested capital 3,779 4,197 3,980 3,980 3,984
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (IDR)
Book value per share 667 856 1,044 1,267 1,480
Tangible book value per share 667 856 1,044 1,267 1,480
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) (25.5) (35.3) (50.3) (59.3) (65.4)
Net debt/total assets (%) (20.9) (30.4) (44.7) (53.8) (60.1)
Current ratio (x) 2.4 4.8 8.7 13.0 17.5
CF interest cover (x) 72.8 - - - -
Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
NAV (IDR) NA NA NA
Disc/(Prem) to NAV NA NA - - NA
Recurring P/E (x) * 16.5 10.0 9.5 8.6 8.8
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 22.9 13.9 13.2 12.0 12.2
Reported P/E (x) 16.5 10.0 9.5 8.6 8.8
Dividend yield (%) 1.7 2.4 3.0 2.6 2.9
P/CF (x) 13.8 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.7
P/FCF (x) 18.2 13.3 8.4 8.5 8.7
Price/book (x) 3.7 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.7
Price/tangible book (x) 3.7 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.7
EV/EBITDA (x) ** 10.1 6.9 6.0 4.9 4.4
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** 14.3 9.9 8.7 7.5 7.0
EV/invested capital (x) 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.6
*Pre exceptional, pre goodwill and fully diluted **EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: London Sumatra; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
24 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Astra Agro Lestari
Profit and Loss (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Revenue 8,844 10,773 12,343 13,978 15,311
Cost of sales ex depreciation (4,897) (6,506) (7,405) (7,919) (8,855)
Gross profit ex depreciation 3,947 4,267 4,937 6,059 6,456
Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Operating costs (611) (739) (821) (930) (1,018)
Operating EBITDA 3,336 3,527 4,117 5,130 5,438
Depreciation (337) (332) (398) (373) (347)
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT 2,999 3,196 3,719 4,757 5,091
Net financing costs (35) 137 48 43 39
Associates 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items 0 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax 2,964 3,333 3,767 4,800 5,131
Tax (860) (834) (942) (1,200) (1,283)
Profit after tax 2,104 2,499 2,825 3,600 3,848
Minority interests (87) (93) (117) (149) (159)
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 2,017 2,406 2,708 3,451 3,689
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring net profit 2,017 2,406 2,708 3,451 3,689
Per share (IDR)
Recurring EPS * 1,281 1,528 1,720 2,192 2,343
Reported EPS 1,281 1,528 1,720 2,192 2,343
DPS 655 940 917 1,032 1,315
Growth
Revenue (%) 19.1 21.8 14.6 13.2 9.5
Operating EBITDA (%) 15.1 5.7 16.7 24.6 6.0
Operating EBIT (%) 14.9 6.6 16.4 27.9 7.0
Recurring EPS (%) 21.4 19.3 12.6 27.4 6.9
Reported EPS (%) 21.4 19.3 12.6 27.4 6.9
Operating performance
Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 40.8 36.5 36.8 40.7 39.9
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 37.7 32.7 33.4 36.7 35.5
Operating EBIT margin (%) 33.9 29.7 30.1 34.0 33.3
Net margin (%) 22.8 22.3 21.9 24.7 24.1
Effective tax rate (%) 29.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 51.1 61.5 53.3 47.1 56.1
Interest cover (x) 86.5 - - - -
Inventory days 46.0 39.1 38.6 37.8 36.8
Debtor days 5.3 2.0 1.2 1.8 1.9
Creditor days 21.9 24.4 25.1 23.6 23.0
Operating ROIC (%) 39.9 38.5 38.1 43.1 41.4
Operating ROIC - WACC (%) 24.3 22.9 - - -
ROIC (%) 34.5 33.2 32.3 36.2 34.9
ROIC - WACC (%) 18.9 17.7 - - -
ROE (%) 30.0 31.3 30.9 33.4 30.6
ROA (%) 26.0 25.2 25.7 28.6 26.6
*Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
Revenue By Division (IDR b) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Oil Palm 8,788 10,718 12,316 13,951 15,311
Non CPO 24 55 26 27 0
Sources: Astra Agro Lestari; BNP Paribas estimates
-
Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
25 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Astra Agro Lestari
Cash Flow (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring net profit 2,017 2,406 2,708 3,451 3,689
Depreciation 337 332 398 373 347
Associates & minorities 87 93 117 149 159
Other non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring cash flow 2,441 2,830 3,223 3,973 4,195
Change in working capital 238 141 (121) (39) (45)
Capex - maintenance (90) (90) (90) (90) (90)
Capex - new investment (1,567) (2,033) (1,400) (1,400) (1,400)
Free cash flow to equity 1,022 848 1,612 2,444 2,660
Net acquisitions & disposals 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (1,031) (1,480) (1,443) (1,625) (2,071)
Non recurring cash flows 462 229 (248) 28 18
Net cash flow 452 (403) (80) 847 607
Equity finance 0 0 0 0 0
Debt finance 0 0 0 0 0
Movement in cash 452 (403) (80) 847 607
Per share (IDR)
Recurring cash flow per share 1,550 1,797 2,046 2,523 2,664
FCF to equity per share 649 539 1,023 1,552 1,689
Balance Sheet (IDR b) Year Ending Jan 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Working capital assets 810 1,048 1,145 1,226 1,350
Working capital liabilities (1,062) (1,440) (1,416) (1,458) (1,537)
Net working capital (251) (392) (271) (232) (187)
Tangible fixed assets 5,871 7,220 8,082 8,969 9,883
Operating invested capital 5,619 6,828 7,811 8,737 9,697
Goodwill 53 56 53 49 46
Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 0 0 0 0 0
Other assets 817 1,042 1,482 1,605 1,734
Invested capital 6,489 7,926 9,345 10,391 11,476
Cash & equivalents (1,241) (838) (758) (1,605) (2,212)
Short term debt 0 0 0 0 0
Long term debt * 0 0 0 0 0
Net debt (1,241) (838) (758) (1,605) (2,212)
Deferred tax 37 33 33 33 33
Other liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity 7,212 8,140 9,405 11,231 12,849
Minority interests 246 287 315 347 381
Invested capital 6,489 7,926 9,345 10,391 11,476
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (IDR)
Book value per share 4,580 5,169 5,972 7,132 8,160
Tangible book value per share 4,546 5,133 5,939 7,101 8,130
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) (16.6) (9.9) (7.8) (13.9) (16.7)
Net debt/total assets (%) (14.1) (8.2) (6.6) (11.9) (14.5)
Current ratio (x) 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.9 2.3
CF interest cover (x) 75.7 - - - -
Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring P/E (x) * 16.1 13.5 12.0 9.4 8.8
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 20.6 17.2 15.3 12.0 11.2
Reported P/E (x) 16.1 13.5 12.0 9.4 8.8
Dividend yield (%) 3.2 4.6 4.4 5.0 6.4
P/CF (x) 13.3 11.5 10.1 8.2 7.8
P/FCF (x) 31.8 38.3 20.2 13.3 12.2
Price/book (x) 4.5 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.5
Price/tangible book (x) 4.5 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.5
EV/EBITDA (x) ** 9.5 9.0 7.8 6.2 5.7
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** 11.9 11.3 9.7 7.7 7.2
EV/invested capital (x) 4.9 4.0 3.4 3.0 2.7
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted ** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: Astra Agro Lestari; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
26 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Salim Ivomas Pratama
Profit and Loss (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Revenue 9,484 12,605 14,437 16,190 17,240
Cost of sales ex depreciation (5,597) (7,836) (9,242) (10,297) (10,886)
Gross profit ex depreciation 3,887 4,769 5,195 5,893 6,354
Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Operating costs (1,008) (1,100) (1,256) (1,376) (1,414)
Operating EBITDA 2,879 3,669 3,939 4,517 4,940
Depreciation (342) (427) (515) (587) (666)
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT 2,537 3,242 3,423 3,930 4,275
Net financing costs (525) (339) (285) (242) (183)
Associates 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items 0 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax 2,012 2,904 3,138 3,688 4,092
Tax (617) (652) (705) (828) (919)
Profit after tax 1,395 2,251 2,433 2,860 3,173
Minority interests (424) (585) (643) (708) (778)
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 971 1,667 1,790 2,152 2,394
Non recurring items & goodwill (net) 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring net profit 971 1,667 1,790 2,152 2,394
Per share (IDR)
Recurring EPS * 383,692 105 113 136 151
Reported EPS 383,692 105 113 136 151
DPS 0.00 0.00 31.61 33.95 40.82
Growth
Revenue (%) 4.9 32.9 14.5 12.1 6.5
Operating EBITDA (%) 20.2 27.5 7.3 14.7 9.4
Operating EBIT (%) 19.3 27.8 5.6 14.8 8.8
Recurring EPS (%) (3.7) (100.0) 7.4 20.2 11.3
Reported EPS (%) (3.7) (100.0) 7.4 20.2 11.3
Operating performance
Gross margin inc depreciation (%) 37.4 34.4 32.4 32.8 33.0
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 30.4 29.1 27.3 27.9 28.7
Operating EBIT margin (%) 26.8 25.7 23.7 24.3 24.8
Net margin (%) 10.2 13.2 12.4 13.3 13.9
Effective tax rate (%) 30.7 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5
Dividend payout on recurring profit (%) 0.0 0.0 27.9 25.0 27.0
Interest cover (x) 4.8 9.6 12.0 16.2 23.4
Inventory days 78.4 69.8 67.4 65.1 67.0
Debtor days 29.7 26.9 26.2 25.5 26.2
Creditor days 36.8 32.5 31.3 30.1 30.9
Operating ROIC (%) 14.5 17.6 16.2 16.9 16.9
Operating ROIC - WACC (%) - - - - -
ROIC (%) 10.6 13.7 13.3 14.0 13.9
ROIC - WACC (%) - - - - -
ROE (%) 13.3 16.3 13.4 14.5 14.5
ROA (%) 8.9 10.8 10.3 11.5 11.8
*Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted
Sources: Salim Ivomas Pratama; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
27 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements Salim Ivomas Pratama
Cash Flow (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring net profit 971 1,667 1,790 2,152 2,394
Depreciation 342 427 515 587 666
Associates & minorities 424 585 643 708 0
Other non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring cash flow 1,737 2,678 2,949 3,446 3,060
Change in working capital (213) (390) (153) (288) 0
Capex - maintenance 0 0 0 0 0
Capex - new investment (1,481) (2,200) (2,300) (2,300) (2,600)
Free cash flow to equity 43 88 496 858 460
Net acquisitions & disposals 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid 0 0 (500) (537) (646)
Non recurring cash flows (4,351) 4,017 (18) (137) 461
Net cash flow (4,308) 4,105 (22) 184 275
Equity finance 3,349 0 0 0 0
Debt finance 1,515 (1,233) (1,384) (769) (682)
Movement in cash 556 2,872 (1,406) (585) (407)
Per share (IDR)
Recurring cash flow per share 686,340 169 186 218 193
FCF to equity per share 16,844 5.58 31.33 54.25 29.08
Balance Sheet (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Working capital assets 2,497 3,048 3,188 3,538 3,754
Working capital liabilities (1,285) (1,446) (1,433) (1,494) (1,519)
Net working capital 1,212 1,602 1,755 2,043 2,235
Tangible fixed assets 11,791 14,037 15,461 16,730 18,118
Operating invested capital 13,003 15,639 17,216 18,774 20,354
Goodwill 2,246 2,313 2,383 2,454 2,528
Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 0 0 0 0 0
Other assets 2,355 1,066 1,240 1,568 1,999
Invested capital 17,604 19,018 20,839 22,796 24,881
Cash & equivalents (2,174) (5,046) (3,610) (3,039) (2,632)
Short term debt 2,816 3,334 2,821 2,665 2,520
Long term debt * 5,678 3,926 3,055 2,443 1,905
Net debt 6,320 2,214 2,267 2,069 1,793
Deferred tax 0 0 0 0 0
Other liabilities 1,545 1,633 1,748 1,870 2,001
Total equity 7,732 12,748 14,038 15,653 17,402
Minority interests 2,007 2,423 2,786 3,204 3,685
Invested capital 17,604 19,018 20,839 22,796 24,881
* includes convertibles and preferred stock which is being treated as debt
Per share (IDR)
Book value per share 3,055,460 806 888 990 1,100
Tangible book value per share 2,167,936 660 737 835 940
Financial strength
Net debt/equity (%) 64.9 14.6 13.5 11.0 8.5
Net debt/total assets (%) 30.0 8.7 8.8 7.6 6.2
Current ratio (x) 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
CF interest cover (x) 3.9 7.8 10.8 14.1 17.7
Valuation 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Recurring P/E (x) * 0.0 12.4 11.6 9.6 8.7
Recurring P/E @ target price (x) * 0.0 14.9 13.9 11.5 10.4
Reported P/E (x) 0.0 12.4 11.6 9.6 8.7
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.6 3.1
P/CF (x) 0.0 7.7 7.0 6.0 6.8
P/FCF (x) 0.1 234.6 41.8 24.1 45.1
Price/book (x) 0.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2
Price/tangible book (x) 0.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4
EV/EBITDA (x) ** 2.7 4.6 6.5 5.7 5.3
EV/EBITDA @ target price (x) ** 2.7 5.2 7.5 6.6 6.1
EV/invested capital (x) 0.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
* Pre exceptional, pre-goodwill and fully diluted ** EBITDA includes associate income and recurring non-operating income
Sources: Salim Ivomas Pratama; BNP Paribas estimates
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Asia Agribusiness Michael Greenall, CFP
28 BNP PARIBAS 13 SEPTEMBER 2012
Financial statements BW Plantation
Profit and Loss (IDR b) Year Ending Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Revenue 712 888 1,146 1,640 2,080
Cost of sales ex depreciation (207) (224) (286) (353) (425)
Gross profit ex depreciation 505 665 860 1,287 1,655
Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Operating costs (96) (131) (143) (180) (229)
Operating EBITDA 409 534 717 1,106 1,426
Depreciation (38) (51) (68) (98) (143)
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0
Operating EBIT 371 483 648 1,009 1,283
Net financing costs (38) (53) (109) (140) (140)
Associates 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring non operating income 0 0 0 0 0
Non recurring items 0 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax 333 430 539 869 1,143
Tax (89) (110) (135) (217) (286)
Profit after tax 244 320 404 652 858
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0
Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0
Other items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported n