bob economics - monthly chartbook 9sep'21
TRANSCRIPT
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Fig 1 –
Slowdown
Sameer Narang
+91 22 6698 5713
Aditi Gupta
Jahnavi
Dipanwita Mazumdar
Sonal Badhan
India Economics
Monthly Chartbook
September 2021
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 2 09 September 2021
India’s improving Vaccination rate to boost growth
India’s vaccinations run-rate (7-DMA) has increased to 7.5mn. At this pace,
as much as 60% of the country will be fully vaccinated by Dec’21. This
implies urban economic activity will also normalise in coming months. While
near-term rural demand may be impacted by erratic monsoon rains, winter
crop outlook looks far better. Government tax collections remain buoyant
and give room for accelerated capex spending on roads and railways. Export
demand too remains healthy and likely to continue. With food prices
moderating, inflation may undershoot RBI’s revised trajectory. The above
backdrop gives room for yields to remain rangebound between 6.1% and
6.3%. While global central banks are looking at tapering QE injections, RBI is
likely to reduce liquidity and then wedge between reverse repo and repo rate
in Q4FY22.
Better outlook on rural demand: Monsoon was 24% below LPA in Aug’21
with poor rains seen in Punjab, Gujarat and North-East. Kharif sowing is 1.1%
below last year’s level led by 6.6% decline in cotton and 1.7% fall in edible oils.
This will impact production of pandemic resilient agri sector. However, rains in
Sep’21 are better. Winter crops sowing should be normal on the back of
reservoirs being 94% of 10-year average (80% last year). Government has
hiked MSP for mustard (8.6%) and lentils (7.8%) which are seeing highest
demand supply mismatch in the country. Thus, outlook on rural demand
remains far better than urban which is yet to normalise.
Centre’s tax collections remain buoyant: Centre’s gross tax collections over
a 2-year horizon have jumped by 29.1% to Rs 7tn in FYTD22. This is led by
65% rise in corporate tax collections (at Rs 1.5tn) followed by 25% rise in
income tax collections (at Rs 1.6tn). Indirect taxes rose by 21% at Rs 3.9tn.
Spending on the other hand is up by 6% over a 2-year horizon, led by capex
(+19.4%). Revenue spending is up by 4.3%. In case of states, tax revenue
growth has slipped marginally below (-0.8%) pre-pandemic levels at Rs 4.16tn
(Rs 4.19tn in FYTD20). However, spending is up by 12.1%, led by 11% rise in
revenue expenditure and 8.6% increase in capex. This has been supported by
85% jump in capital receipts (borrowings and loans).
Yields to remain rangebound: With robust tax collections, India’s 10Y yield
has fallen in Sep’21 compared with higher yields in most global markets. Retail
inflation may also be lower than RBI’s revised trajectory with food prices
showing some moderation. Globally, Korea (BoK) raised rates for the first time
in 3-years. US Fed is looking at tapering its bond purchases as early as Oct’21.
However, spread of delta variant has led to moderation in oil demand and
prices. The above backdrop favours 10Y yield to remain rangebound between
6.1-6.3% range. H2 Borrowing calendar will be most important driver in near-
term.
INR appreciates: INR rose by 1.9% in Aug’21 supported by FII inflows of US$
2.9bn. Softer oil prices (down by 5.1% in Aug’21 MoM) also supported INR.
Trade deficit expanded in Aug’21 led by gold imports. While imports are likely to
expand further as economic activity improves, strong export momentum is likely
to keep trade deficit contained at US$ 150bn in FY22. This implies that CAD
will remain contained at ~1% of GDP in FY22. This should support INR in 73-
75/$ in the near term.
Note: The source for all exhibits is ‘CEIC and Bank of Baroda’ unless otherwise specified
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 3 09 September 2021
High Frequency Indicators
Mobility index and Covid cases
Fig 1 – Google mobility index edges lower Fig 2 – Statewise cases dropping; Kerala remains an outlier
Note:Highlights % change in visits to the place from baseline reading (median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the five week period 3 Jan – 6 Feb 2020). Note: Data taken as 7 days rolling average
Fig 3 – Workplace mobility slips Fig 4 – Retail and recreation remains steady
Note: Data taken as 7 days rolling average Note: Data taken as 7 days rolling average
(100)
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
22-J
un
6-Ju
l
20-J
ul
3-A
ug
17-A
ug
31-A
ug
14-S
ep28
-Sep
12-O
ct
26-O
ct
9-N
ov
23-N
ov
7-D
ec21
-Dec
4-Ja
n
18-J
an
1-Fe
b
15-F
eb
1-M
ar
15-M
ar29
-Mar
12-A
pr
26-A
pr
10-M
ay
24-M
ay
7-Ju
n
21-J
un5-
Jul
19-J
ul
2-A
ug
16-A
ug
30-A
ug
(% change from baseline)
Retail & Recreation Grocery & Pharmacy
Transit Stations Workplaces
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
200
6,400
12,600
18,800
25,000
31,200
37,400
43,600
5-A
pr-2
1
12-A
pr-2
1
19-A
pr-2
1
26-A
pr-2
1
3-M
ay-2
1
10-M
ay-2
1
17-M
ay-2
1
24-M
ay-2
1
31-M
ay-2
1
7-Ju
n-21
14-J
un-2
1
21-J
un-2
1
28-J
un-2
1
5-Ju
l-21
12-J
ul-2
1
19-J
ul-2
1
26-J
ul-2
1
2-A
ug-2
1
9-A
ug-2
1
16-A
ug-2
1
23-A
ug-2
1
30-A
ug-2
1
(7-day moving average) Delhi Karnataka Kerala
Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra ( R)
(72)
(62)
(52)
(42)
(32)
(22)
(12)
(2)
18-J
an-2
125
-Jan
-21
01-F
eb-2
108
-Feb
-21
15-F
eb-2
122
-Feb
-21
01-M
ar-2
108
-Mar
-21
15-M
ar-2
122
-Mar
-21
29-M
ar-2
105
-Apr
-21
12-A
pr-2
119
-Apr
-21
26-A
pr-2
103
-May
-21
10-M
ay-2
117
-May
-21
24-M
ay-2
131
-May
-21
07-J
un-2
114
-Jun
-21
21-J
un-2
128
-Jun
-21
05-J
ul-2
112
-Jul
-21
19-J
ul-2
126
-Jul
-21
02-A
ug-2
109
-Aug
-21
16-A
ug-2
123
-Aug
-21
30-A
ug-2
1
Delhi Gujarat Karnataka Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Tamil Nadu
(82)
(72)
(62)
(52)
(42)
(32)
(22)
(12)
(2)
18-J
an-2
125
-Jan
-21
01-F
eb-2
108
-Feb
-21
15-F
eb-2
122
-Feb
-21
01-M
ar-2
108
-Mar
-21
15-M
ar-2
122
-Mar
-21
29-M
ar-2
105
-Apr
-21
12-A
pr-2
119
-Apr
-21
26-A
pr-2
103
-May
-21
10-M
ay-2
117
-May
-21
24-M
ay-2
131
-May
-21
07-J
un-2
114
-Jun
-21
21-J
un-2
128
-Jun
-21
05-J
ul-2
112
-Jul
-21
19-J
ul-2
126
-Jul
-21
02-A
ug-2
109
-Aug
-21
16-A
ug-2
123
-Aug
-21
30-A
ug-2
1
Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Karnataka Delhi Gujarat Tamil Nadu
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 4 09 September 2021
Fig 5 – Electricity demand improves in Aug’21 Fig 6 – Cash withdrawal inches up
Source: Posoco. Note: Maximum Demand met during peak evening hours (MW) Source: NPCI.Note: NFS Cashwithdrawal amount does not include Card to Card Transfer
Fig 7 – IMPS payments dips Fig 8 – UPI payments continues to gather momentum
Source: NPCI
4.6%3.5%
(2.1%)
(4.8%)
(4.4%)(0.4%)
1.4%6.5%
(3.9%)
(25.3%)(13.2%)
(7.3%)(3.1%)
(4.2%)
2.5%
5.3%4.4%7.0%
7.7%
3.4%
12.2%
39.7%
5.8%
13.8%
11.6%14.3%
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
Electricity demand, YoY
5% 8% 5% 7%18%17%
(10%)
(47%)
(29%)(17%)
(20%)
(18%)(12%)(12%)
(5%)
(8%)
(9%)(12%)
10%
70%
(2%)(4%)
10%11%
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
% YoY ATM Cash Withdrawal
(34%)(9%)
16% 17% 23%37% 35%
49%39% 34% 29%
67%
164%
68%53% 59% 54%
(50%)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
% YoY IMPS
28%
68%77% 82% 76%
88%80% 81%
71% 76% 73%
119%
164%
105% 110% 117%120%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
% YoY UPI
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 5 09 September 2021
Fig 9 – Fertilizer sales slips Fig 10 – MGNREGA work demand drops significantly
Source: MGNREGA
(35%)
(15%)
5%
25%
45%
65%
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Fertilizer sales, YoY Fertilizer sales, 3MMA YoY19.9%
(28.6%)(24.0%)
0.3%
(0.1%)(6.6%)
16.6%
(0.7%)
8.9%
(8.5%)
4.2%1.3%
26.8%
(9.2%)
(22.0%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jun'
20
Jul'2
0
Aug
'20
Sep
'20
Oct
'20
Nov
'20
Dec
'20
Jan'
21
Feb'
21
Mar
'21
Apr
'21
May
'21
Jun'
21
Jul'2
1
Aug
'21
MGNREGA Work Demand, MoM
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 6 09 September 2021
Final consumption expenditure
Fig 11 – Private consumption improves in Q1FY22 Fig 12 – Government consumption declines
l
Fig 13 – General govt. revenue spending continues to dip Fig 14 – State* govt. revenue spending too slips
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal
(30%)(25%)(20%)(15%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%20%25%
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
Real PFCE, YoY Real GDP, YoY (R)
(30%)(25%)(20%)(15%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%20%25%
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
Real GFCE, YoY Real GDP, YoY (R)
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Apr
-20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Jan-
21
Apr
-21
Jul-2
1
12MMA YoY
(10%)
(6%)
(2%)
2%
6%
10%
14%
18%
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
12MMA YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 7 09 September 2021
Non-oil imports, electronic imports
Fig 15 – Moderation in non-oil-non-gold imports Fig 16 – Electronic imports up in Aug’21
Fig 17 – Passenger car sales dip due to chip shortage Fig 18 – Two-wheeler sales contracts
Source: FADA
(55%)
(40%)
(25%)
(10%)
5%
20%
35%
50%
65%
(45%)
(30%)
(15%)
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
Aug
-18
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Feb-
19
Apr
-19
Jun-
19
Aug
-19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jun-
20
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
Total imports, 6MMA YoY Non oil & Non gold, 6MMA YoY (R)
(70%)
(35%)
0%
35%
70%
105%
140%
175%
210%
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
YoY 3MMA
25%
14%7%
28%
16%
(7%)
4%
(10%)
10%
(25%)
(59%)
42%
(3%)
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
MoM114.8%
12%3%
11%2%
36%
1%
(18%)
(6%)
10%
(28%)
(53%)
22%
(14%)
(55%)
(35%)
(15%)
5%
25%
45%
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
MoM126.5%
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 8 09 September 2021
Credit deployment of personal loans
Fig 19 – Growth in credit card outstanding inch up Fig 20 – Growth for personal loans eases
Fig 21 – Growth in vehicle loans slows Fig 22 – Consumer confidence remains weak (I have change chart)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
YoY 3MMA YoY
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
YoY 3MMA YoY
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
YoY 3MMA YoY
48.5 48.6
96.4104.0
45
65
85
105
125
145
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Sep
-17
Nov
-17
Jan-
18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
Current situation Future expectation
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 9 09 September 2021
Fig 23 – RBI’s essential spending higher Fig 24 – …non-essential spending continues to dip
Consumer durables & non-durables production
Fig 25 – Consumer durables output drops Fig 26 – …FMCG output too moderates
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Sep
-17
Nov
-17
Jan-
18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1 (80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Sep
-17
Nov
-17
Jan-
18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
(100%)(80%)(60%)(40%)(20%)
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%
Jun-
17
Oct
-17
Feb-
18
Jun-
18
Oct
-18
Feb-
19
Jun-
19
Oct
-19
Feb-
20
Jun-
20
Oct
-20
Feb-
21
Jun-
21
YoY 3MMA YoY
1943.6%
(50%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jun-
17
Oct
-17
Feb-
18
Jun-
18
Oct
-18
Feb-
19
Jun-
19
Oct
-19
Feb-
20
Jun-
20
Oct
-20
Feb-
21
Jun-
21
YoY 3MMA YoY
97%
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 10 09 September 2021
Agriculture
Fig 27 – Agri growth improves in Q1FY22 Fig 28 – Tractor sales contracts in Jul’21
Fig 29 – Agriculture credit scales up Fig 30 – Procurement of rice and wheat
Year Wheat Rice
2012-13 38.15 34.04
2013-14 25.09 31.85
2014-15 28.02 32.04
2015-16 28.09 34.22
2016-17 22.96 38.11
2017-18 30.83 38.19
2018-19 35.80 44.39
2019-20 34.13 51.99
2020-21 38.99 57.63*
2021-22 43.30
Source: Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution | *As on: 31 Jul 2021
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
(4%)
(2%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
Agriculture GVA Real GVA (R)
60%
7%
(28%)(20%)
22%
(3%)
12%
(24%)(12%)
90%
(37%)(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
MoM
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
YoY 3MMA YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 11 09 September 2021
Fig 31 – Both international and domestic rice price drops Fig 32 – Higher international price of wheat; doemstic price dips
Source: World Bank Source: World Bank
Fig 33 – Global food prices edge upwards Fig 34 – Wage growth (men) improves marginally
Source: FAO
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
1,200
1,650
2,100
2,550
3,000
3,450
3,900
Aug
-12
Feb-
13
Aug
-13
Feb-
14
Aug
-14
Feb-
15
Aug
-15
Feb-
16
Aug
-16
Feb-
17
Aug
-17
Feb-
18
Aug
-18
Feb-
19
Aug
-19
Feb-
20
Aug
-20
Feb-
21
Aug
-21
(Rs/Quintal) International Rice prices Domestic Rice prices MSP-Paddy (R)
1,050
1,250
1,450
1,650
1,850
2,050
600
1,000
1,400
1,800
2,200
2,600
Aug
-12
Feb-
13
Aug
-13
Feb-
14
Aug
-14
Feb-
15
Aug
-15
Feb-
16
Aug
-16
Feb-
17
Aug
-17
Feb-
18
Aug
-18
Feb-
19
Aug
-19
Feb-
20
Aug
-20
Feb-
21
Aug
-21
(Rs/Quintal) International Wheat prices Domestic Wheat prices MSP-Wheat (R)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Aug
-17
Oct
-17
Dec
-17
Feb-
18
Apr
-18
Jun-
18
Aug
-18
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Feb-
19
Apr
-19
Jun-
19
Aug
-19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jun-
20
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
YoY 3MMA
2.2%
0.2%
-1.1%-0.9%
0.1%
0.6%0.3%
0.7% 0.7%0.9%
0.4%0.1% 0.2%
(2%)
(1%)
(1%)
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Agri Wages, MoM
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 12 09 September 2021
Fig 35 – Kharif sowing is lower compared with last year
Crop Type (mn ha) Area sown in 2021-22 Area sown in 2020-21 Normal Area for whole Kharif season Growth (YoY%)
Foodgrains 71.1 71.3 71.5 (0.3)
Cereals 57.4 57.7 57.9 (0.6)
Rice 40.1 40.1 39.6 0.2
Pulses 13.7 13.5 13.5 1.2
Oilseeds 19.1 19.4 18.0 (1.7)
Cotton 11.8 12.6 12.4 (6.6)
Sugarcane 5.5 5.4 4.8 1.4
Jute and Mesta 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2
Total 108.15 109.4 107.3 (1.1)
*Note: Till 3 Sep 2021
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 13 09 September 2021
Inflation
Fig 36 – Retail inflation edged down to 5.6% in Jul’21 from 6.3% in Jun’21 Fig 37 – …Food inflation fell to 4% from 5.1% in Jun’21, led by vegetables, fruits
Fig 38 – Vegetable prices fell by 0.1% (MoM) in Aug’21 Fig 39 – CPI excl. food and fuel moderated to 6% from 6.2% in Jun’21
Note: *vegetable index computed using average retail price of major items
5.6%
4.0%
(5%)
(2%)
1%
4%
7%
10%
13%
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
CPI, YoY Food inflation, YoY
0%
4%
8%
12%
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Fruits, YoY Vegetables, YoY Pulses and Products
Cereals and Products Food inflation, YoY (R)
(0.1%)
(25%)(20%)(15%)(10%)
(5%)0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%
Aug
-13
Feb
-14
Aug
-14
Feb
-15
Aug
-15
Feb
-16
Aug
-16
Feb
-17
Aug
-17
Feb
-18
Aug
-18
Feb
-19
Aug
-19
Feb
-20
Aug
-20
Feb
-21
Aug
-21
Calc Veg Index, MoM Actual veg Index, MoM
6.0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
CPI, YoY Core CPI, YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 14 09 September 2021
Fig 40 – …Led by household goods and services, transport and personal care and effects
Fig 41 – However, core excl. major volatile items was still elevated at 5.2%
Fig 42 – Retail fuel prices were at Rs 98.2 same as in Jul’21, crude price moderated to US$ 70.5/bbl from US$ 74.3/bbl
Fig 43 – Headline CPI is expected to be at 5.5% in FY22
Note: *Average retail price of Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai
2.8% 3.3%
2.9% 4.
8%
10.3
%
3.9%
2.9%
13.7
%
6.1%
3.7% 5.
7% 7.7%
11.6
%
4.5%
3.4% 4.
7%6.5%
3.9% 4.
9%
7.7%
10.5
%
6.4%
3.0% 3.8%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%
Clo
thin
g an
dFo
otw
ear
Hou
sing
Hou
seho
ld G
oods
and
Ser
vice
s
Hea
lth
Tra
nspo
rt an
dC
omm
unic
atio
n
Rec
reat
ion
and
Am
usem
ent
Edu
catio
n
Per
sona
l Car
e an
dE
ffect
s
Jul-20 Jun-21 Jul-21
5.2%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan-
17
Apr
-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
Apr
-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Apr
-20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Jan-
21
Apr
-21
Jul-2
1
Core excl transport & comm, personal care & effects & pan, tobacco & intoxicants, YoY
70.598.2
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
20
30
40
50
60
70
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
(Rs/ltr)(US$/bbl) Average Brent price Average retail fuel prices (R)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Mar
-16
Sep
-16
Mar
-17
Sep
-17
Mar
-18
Sep
-18
Mar
-19
Sep
-19
Mar
-20
Sep
-20
Mar
-21
Sep
-21
Mar
-22
Sep
-22
Mar
-23
Headline, YoY Core, YoY CPI Food, YoY (R )
BoB est
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 15 09 September 2021
Industry
Fig 44 – Industrial growth improves in Q1FY22 Fig 45 – Broad based improvement in FYTD’22 due to base effect
Fig 46 – IIP growth moderates in Jun’21
Sectoral (%) Weight Jun-21 Jun-20 Apr-Jun'22 Apr-Jun'21
IIP 100.0 13.6 (16.6) 45.0 (35.6)
Mining 14.4 23.1 (19.5) 27.4 (22.3)
Manufacturing 77.6 13.0 (17.0) 53.7 (40.2)
Electricity 8.0 8.3 (10.0) 16.8 (15.8)
Use-Based
Primary Goods 34.1 12.0 (14.5) 20.7 (20.2)
Capital Goods 8.2 25.7 (37.4) 110.2 (64.8)
Intermediate Goods 17.2 22.6 (20.7) 69.7 (40.8)
Infrastructure and Construction Goods 12.3 19.1 (18.3) 82 (46.9)
Consumer Durables Goods 12.8 30.1 (34.8) 132.6 (67.6)
Consumer Non-Durables Goods 15.3 (4.5) 6.9 18.1 (16.9)
6.0%
44.9%
7.9%
46.1%
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
IIP 3MMA YoY Real GVA industry, YoY (R)
(35.6%)
(22.3%)
(40.2%)
(15.8%)
45.0%
27.4%
53.7%
16.8%
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
IIP Mining Manufacturing Electricity
Apr-Jun'21 Apr-Jun'22
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 16 09 September 2021
Manufacturing
Fig 47 – Manufacturing activity clocks higher growth due to base effect Fig 48 – Manufacturing PMI drops marginally
Source: Markit
Mining & Electricity
Fig 49 – Mining activity increases in Q1FY22 Fig 50 – Electricity output improves further
Source:Posoco. Note: Average Energy Met (MU)
6.8%
53.7%
6.9%
49.6%
(45%)
(30%)
(15%)
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
(60%)
(45%)
(30%)
(15%)
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
IIP Manufacturing, 3MMA YoY Real GVA Manufacturing, YoY (R)
55.352.3 50
33.5%13.0%
(90%)
(70%)
(50%)
(30%)
(10%)
10%
30%
50%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Aug
-19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jun-
20
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
Manufacturing PMI IIP,Manufacturing (YoY)
(0.1%)
27.3%
(5.7%)
18.6%
(28%)
(20%)
(12%)
(4%)
4%
12%
20%
28%
(25%)(20%)(15%)(10%)(5%)
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21IIP Mining, 3MMA YoY Real GVA Mining, YoY (R)
(2%)(13%)
(5%)(1%)
3%
(7%)(9%)
(24%)(15%)
(10%)(3%) (2%)
5%12%
4% 5% 5%11%
23%
40%
7% 8% 11%17%
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
Electricity supply, YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 17 09 September 2021
Infrastructure and Construction
Fig 51 – Higher growth in construction sector in Q1FY22 Fig 52 – cement output rebounds on YoY basis
Infrastructure Index
Fig 53 – Infra index edges upwards to 9.4% in Jul’21 Fig 54 – Coal Output improves
9.7%
81.9%
14.5%
68.3%
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
(55%)
(35%)
(15%)
5%
25%
45%
65%
85%
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
IIP Infra/Constrn, 3MMA YoY Real GVA Construction, YoY ( R)
(90%)(75%)(60%)(45%)(30%)(15%)
0%15%30%45%60%75%
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
YoY 3MMA YoY
583%
(40%)(30%)(20%)(10%)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
Infrastructure Index, YoY Infrastructure Index, 3MMA
(22%)(18%)(14%)(10%)
(6%)(2%)
2%6%
10%14%18%22%
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
YoY 3MMA YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 18 09 September 2021
Auto production & Business expectation index
Fig 55 – Auto production moderates Fig 56 – Business sentiment turns weaker
Fig 57 – Infrastructure index inches up
(%) Weight Jul-21 Jun-21 Jul-20 Apr-Jul’22 Apr-Jul’21
Infrastructure Index 100 9.4 9.3 (7.6) 21.2 (19.8)
Coal 10.3 18.7 7.4 (5.7) 10.5 (12.9)
Crude Oil 9.0 (3.2) (1.8) (4.9) (3.4) (6.1)
Natural Gas 6.9 18.9 20.6 (10.2) 21.0 (14.7)
Petroleum Refinery Products 28.0 6.7 2.4 (13.9) 13.1 (17.1)
Fertilizers 2.6 0.5 2.0 6.9 (1.1) 3.9
Steel 17.9 9.3 25 (6.5) 59.4 (38.4)
Cement 5.4 21.8 7.5 (13.5) 45.6 (32.2)
Electricity 19.9 9 8.2 (2.4) 14.6 (12.4)
57%
26% 21%8%
(19%) (17%)
16%2% 5%
(21%)
(57%)
24%
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
MoM110%
113.10
89.70
119.60
124.10
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
Sep
-21
Current quarter Expectation for next quarter
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 19 09 September 2021
Investment
Fig 58 – Policy uncertainty in India has fallen in Aug’21 with moderation of Covid cases
Fig 59 – Investment demand shot up by 55.3% in Q1FY22 from 10.9% in Q4FY21 due to a low base of (-) 46.6% in Q1FY21
Source: policyuncertainty.com
Fig 60 – PLF of govt. thermal plants improved both for central and private plants Fig 61 – Capital goods production edged down to 25.7% in Jun’21 from 78% in May’21
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Aug
-13
Aug
-14
Aug
-15
Aug
-16
Aug
-17
Aug
-18
Aug
-19
Aug
-20
Aug
-21
India Policy uncertainty Index
20.1%
55.3%
(50%)
(25%)
0%
25%
50%
75%
Jun-
16
Dec
-16
Jun-
17
Dec
-17
Jun-
18
Dec
-18
Jun-
19
Dec
-19
Jun-
20
Dec
-20
Jun-
21
Real GDP, YoY Real GFCF, YoY
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
Thermal: PLF, Central Thermal: PLF, Private
25.7%
(99%)
(69%)
(39%)
(9%)
21%
51%
81%
111%
Jun-
18
Oct
-18
Feb-
19
Jun-
19
Oct
-19
Feb-
20
Jun-
20
Oct
-20
Feb-
21
Jun-
21
Capital goods production, YoY Capital goods production, YoY over 2-year horizon
1042.9%
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 20 09 September 2021
Fig 62 – Capital goods imports softened to 29.2% in Jul’21 from 83.8% in Jun’21 Fig 63 – Centre’s capex spending moderated rose to 29.9% from 24.2% in Jun’21
Fig 64 – Industry credit rose by 1% in Jul’21 from 0.3% decline seen in Jun’21 Fig 65 – Credit to micro & small industry rose to 7.9% from 6.4%, for medium industry it rose to 71.6% from 54.6% supported by ECLGS scheme
29.2%
(60%)
(30%)
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
150%
Jul-1
8
Nov
-18
Mar
-19
Jul-1
9
Nov
-19
Mar
-20
Jul-2
0
Nov
-20
Mar
-21
Jul-2
1
Capital goods import YoY Capital goods import, YoY over 2-year horizon
29.9%
(40%)
(15%)
10%
35%
60%
Jul-1
8
Nov
-18
Mar
-19
Jul-1
9
Nov
-19
Mar
-20
Jul-2
0
Nov
-20
Mar
-21
Jul-2
1
Capital spending of the central government 12m trailing sum, YoY
1.0%
(4%)
(2%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Jul-1
7
Nov
-17
Mar
-18
Jul-1
8
Nov
-18
Mar
-19
Jul-1
9
Nov
-19
Mar
-20
Jul-2
0
Nov
-20
Mar
-21
Jul-2
1
Credit to industry, YoY
7.9%
71.6%
(15%)
(5%)
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
Jul-1
7
Nov
-17
Mar
-18
Jul-1
8
Nov
-18
Mar
-19
Jul-1
9
Nov
-19
Mar
-20
Jul-2
0
Nov
-20
Mar
-21
Jul-2
1
Credit to micro & Small industry, YoY Credit to medium industry, YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 21 09 September 2021
Fig 66 – Credit to large industry fell at a slower pace of 2.9% from 3.4% decline seen in Jun’21
Fig 67 – Housing credit moderated to 8.9% from 9.7% in Jun’21
Fig 68 – Highway construction gaining pace Fig 69 – FDI inflows in Q1FY22 rose to US$ 18bn versus US$ 7bn in the same period of previous year
Note: FYTD22: Apr-Jul Source: DIPP
(2.9%)
(6%)
(4%)
(2%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Jul-1
7
Nov
-17
Mar
-18
Jul-1
8
Nov
-18
Mar
-19
Jul-1
9
Nov
-19
Mar
-20
Jul-2
0
Nov
-20
Mar
-21
Jul-2
1
Credit to large industry, YoY
8.9%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
Jul
-17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Apr
-18
Jul
-18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Apr
-19
Jul
-19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Apr
-20
Jul
-20
Oct
-20
Jan
-21
Apr
-21
Jul
-21
Credit to housing, YoY Credit to housing, 3MMA, YoY
10,88510,237
13,327
2,657 2,927
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
FY19 FY20 FY21 FYTD21 FYTD22
National Highways: Construction (Km)
6
16
25 27 2619
30
22 2431
4043 45 44
50
60
7
18
2
12
22
32
42
52
62
72
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
Q1F
Y21
Q1F
Y22
(US$ bn) FDI Inflow
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 22 09 September 2021
Services sector
Fig 70 – GVA: Services activity picked up in Q1FY22 Fig 71 – Services PMI rebounded in Aug’21; Q2 avg (51.1) better than last year (38)
Source: Markit
Fig 72 – GVA: Trade & related services recovered sharply in Q1 Fig 73 – States’* tax revenue growth slipped in Jul’21
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal
(21.5%)
1.5%
11.4%
(22%)
(17%)
(12%)
(7%)
(2%)
3%
8%
13%
Jun-
14
Dec
-14
Jun-
15
Dec
-15
Jun-
16
Dec
-16
Jun-
17
Dec
-17
Jun-
18
Dec
-18
Jun-
19
Dec
-19
Jun-
20
Dec
-20
Jun-
21
YoY
45.4
56.7
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
Aug
-18
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Feb-
19
Apr
-19
Jun-
19
Aug
-19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jun-
20
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
Services PMI
(48.1%)
(2.3%)
34.3%
(50%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jun-
14
Dec
-14
Jun-
15
Dec
-15
Jun-
16
Dec
-16
Jun-
17
Dec
-17
Jun-
18
Dec
-18
Jun-
19
Dec
-19
Jun-
20
Dec
-20
Jun-
21
YoY
(18.0%)
43.3%
21.4%
(40%)
(25%)
(10%)
5%
20%
35%
50%
65%
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 23 09 September 2021
Trade
Fig 74 – Vehicle registration growth slows in Aug’21 Fig 75 – Diesel consumption in Aug’21 still 9% lower over 2-year horizon
Fig 76 – Port cargo volumes seen reviving over 2-year horizon Fig 77 – Railway freight traffic growth eased in Aug’21, but is better than last year
33.9%
14.2%
(100%)
(80%)
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Dec
-17
Feb-
18
Apr
-18
Jun-
18
Aug
-18
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Feb-
19
Apr
-19
Jun-
19
Aug
-19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jun-
20
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
YoY
9.5%
(9.0%)
(60%)
(50%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
Aug
-17
Oct
-17
Dec
-17
Feb-
18
Apr
-18
Jun-
18
Aug
-18
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Feb-
19
Apr
-19
Jun-
19
Aug
-19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jun-
20
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
2-year horizon
(7.2%)
(0.1%)
(30%)
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Aug
-17
Oct
-17
Dec
-17
Feb-
18
Apr
-18
Jun-
18
Aug
-18
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Feb-
19
Apr
-19
Jun-
19
Aug
-19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jun-
20
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
2-Year horizon, % YoY
3.9%
18.4% 16.9%
(37%)
(27%)
(17%)
(7%)
3%
13%
23%
33%
May
-16
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 24 09 September 2021
Fig 78 – Toll collection growth eases further in Aug’21 Fig 79 – E-way bill generation growth seen normalising
11.8% 13.7% 11.2%
2.1%
10.8%7.8% 6.5%
21.6%
(15.0%)
(29.1%)
35.5%
21.8%
4.6%
(35%)
(25%)
(15%)
(5%)
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
Toll collection, MoM
17.3%
2.7%
(50%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Dec
-18
Feb-
19
Apr
-19
Jun-
19
Aug
-19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jun-
20
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
%MoM
Nationwide lockdown
Economy re-opened
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 25 09 September 2021
Hotels and communications
Fig 80 – Airline passenger traffic growth contracted less sharply in Jul’21… Fig 81 – …supported by domestic passenger growth
Fig 82 – Railway passenger traffic still far lower than pre-pandemic levels Fig 83 – Telecom sector added 4mn wireless subscribers in Jun’21 versus decline of 6.3mn subscribers in May’21
(77.5%)
(63.6%)
(110%)
(90%)
(70%)
(50%)
(30%)
(10%)
10%
30%
50%
Jul-1
7
Sep
-17
Nov
-17
Jan-
18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
2-Year horizon, % YoY
(74.3%)
(58.1%)
(110%)
(90%)
(70%)
(50%)
(30%)
(10%)
10%
30%
50%
Jul-1
7
Sep
-17
Nov
-17
Jan-
18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
2-Year horizon, % YoY
(79.1%)
(73.0%)
(105%)
(85%)
(65%)
(45%)
(25%)
(5%)
15%
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
2-Year horizon, % YoY
1,18
1
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
Jun-
17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
(mn) Number of Subscribers
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 26 09 September 2021
Finance and real estate
Fig 84 – Growth in GVA: Finance, real estate & prof. services eased further in Q1FY22
Fig 85 – Both deposit and credit growth seen recovering
Note: *Aug 21 implies fortnight as of 13 Aug 2021
Fig 86 – Credit to services sector inches up, credit to industry still muted Fig 87 – Credit to NBFCs and commercial real estate subdued in Jul’21
5.4%
3.7%
(11%)
(8%)
(5%)
(2%)
1%
4%
7%
10%
13%
Jun-
14
Dec
-14
Jun-
15
Dec
-15
Jun-
16
Dec
-16
Jun-
17
Dec
-17
Jun-
18
Dec
-18
Jun-
19
Dec
-19
Jun-
20
Dec
-20
Jun-
21
YoY
9.7%
10.0%
6.0%
6.2%
3%
6%
8%
11%
13%
16%
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Deposit growth, 3MMA YoY Credit growth, 3MMA YoY
*
(6%)
(1%)
4%
9%
14%
19%
24%
29%
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan-
17
Apr
-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
Apr
-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Apr
-20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Jan-
21
Apr
-21
Jul-2
1
Industry credit, 3MMA YoY Services credit, 3MMA YoY
(5%)
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
Sep
-16
Nov
-16
Jan-
17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Sep
-17
Nov
-17
Jan-
18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
Trade, 3MMA YoY Commercial real estate, 3MMA YoY NBFCs, 3MMA YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 27 09 September 2021
Fig 88 – Property sale volumes dipped again in Q1FY22, similar to last year Fig 89 – Stamp duty collection in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala remain below pre-pandemic levels
Source: Proptiger
0.8% 0.1%
(11.7%)(2.0%)
(13.3%)
(72.6%)
85.0%68.0%
12.0%
(76.0%)(100%)
(80%)
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21
Prop sales volume (%QoQ)100
55
36 3729
20 2215
9 12
3528
17 1913 13 9 11
6 6
62 58
36 33 3023 22
1711 10
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mah
aras
htra
Utta
r P
rade
sh
Tam
il N
adu
Kar
nata
ka
Guj
arat
MP
Har
yana
Raj
asth
an
Pun
jab
Ker
ala
(Rs bn) Apr-Jul'19 Apr-Jul'20 Apr-Jul'21
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 28 09 September 2021
Labour market
Fig 90 – Formal employment, as shown by Naukri job index improved in Aug’21 Fig 91 – Unemployment rate picks up in Aug’21
(14.5%)
(2.4%)
2.4%
(16.4%)
(12.7%)
8.6% 9.5%
23.5%
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
2Y growth, % YoY
2
6
10
14
18
22
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
(%) India unemployment rate
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 29 09 September 2021
Public administration
Fig 92 – Public administration & defence services contributed positively in Q1FY22 Fig 93 – General govt. spending showing signs of revival in Jul’21
Fig 94 – …supported by Central government spending Fig 95 – State* Govt. spending continues to ease
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal
2.3%
5.8%
(14%)
(8%)
(2%)
4%
10%
16%
22%
Jun-
14
Dec
-14
Jun-
15
Dec
-15
Jun-
16
Dec
-16
Jun-
17
Dec
-17
Jun-
18
Dec
-18
Jun-
19
Dec
-19
Jun-
20
Dec
-20
Jun-
21
YoY
6.5%
8.4%
(15%)
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Apr
-20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Jan-
21
Apr
-21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY
0.7% 4.1%
(17%)
8%
33%
58%
83%
108%
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY
17.7%
15.2%
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Apr
-20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Jan-
21
Apr
-21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 30 09 September 2021
Financial sector
Money and banking
Fig 96 – Credit demand picked up to 6.5% in Jul’21 from 6.1% in Jul’21, deposit growth rose to 10.6% from 9.8% …
Fig 97 – …Both demand and time deposits inched rose to 22.6% and 9.2% respectively from 20.1% and 8.6% in Jul’21
Note: *Aug-21 implies fortnight as of 13 Aug 2021 Note: *Aug-21 implies fortnight as of 13 Aug 2021
Fig 98 – CD ratio moderated to 69.9% from 70.2% Fig 99 – Pace of accretion of credit, investment and deposit
Note: *Aug-21 implies fortnight as of 13 Aug 2021 FYTD: Till 13 Aug 2021
10.6%
6.5%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Deposit, YoY* Credit, YoY*
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Demand deposit, YoY* Time deposit, YoY*
69.9%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Credit deposit ratio*
2.0 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.4 6.6 7.2 7.0 8.4 9.6 8.3 7.9
14.3
6.711.5 9.9
15.5
5.1 4.62.64.1 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.7
7.0 6.76.5
7.35.4 7.1
5.9
7.8
11.5
6.0
5.8
(1.5)(0.6)
0.6
-0.2
0.71.8 1.9 2.2
1.2 2.42.7
2.12.8 1.3
4.1
2.9
0.6
3.7
7.2
5.71.5
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FYTD
21
FYTD
22
(Rs tn) ∆ Deposit ∆ Credit ∆ Investment
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 31 09 September 2021
Fig 100 – Credit to govt moderated to 8.2% from 10.6% in Jun’21, credit to commercial sector however rose to 5.5% from 5%
Fig 101 – Spread between call rate and repo
Fig 102 – WATDR inched down to 5.21% from 5.24% in Jun’21, WALR rose to 7.69% from 7.66%
Fig 103 – CIC accretion is happening at a much slower pace of Rs 853bn in FYTD22 against Rs 2.4tn in the same period of previous year
FYTD: Apr-Aug
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Jul-0
1
Jul-0
2
Jul-0
3
Jul-0
4
Jul-0
5
Jul-0
6
Jul-0
7
Jul-0
8
Jul-0
9
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
Credit to Govt, YoY Credit to Comm sector, YoY
(32) (30)(49) (58) (58) (62)
(72)(85) (85) (86)
(76)(80) (83) (83) (88) (87) (81)
(190)
(140)
(90)
(40)
10
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
Average spread of WALR over repo (WALR-Repo)(bps)
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
WALR_Fresh rupee loans, PSBs WATDR, PSBs
5,073 4,948
3,095 2,997
4,192
2,412
853
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FYTD21 FYTD22
(Rs bn) Change in currency in circulation (CIC)
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 32 09 September 2021
Fig 104 – 10Y GSec yield rose to 6.22% from 6.2% in Jul’21 and currently at 6.19%, inflation edged down to 5.6% from 6.3% in Jun’21
Fig 105 – Yield curve graph (YCG) shows steepening bias
Note: *As on last trading day of the month, 6.10GS2031 benchmark security is taken Source: Bloomberg
Fig 106 – Corporate debt issuance rose to Rs 498bn in Aug’21 from Rs 301bn in Jul’21
Fig 107 – Average system liquidity surplus was higher at Rs 7.4tn as against Rs 5.8tn in Jul’21 and currently at Rs 8.4tn
Source: RBI
6.22%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
Aug
-15
Feb-
16
Aug
-16
Feb-
17
Aug
-17
Feb-
18
Aug
-18
Feb-
19
Aug
-19
Feb-
20
Aug
-20
Feb-
21
Aug
-21
CPI, YoY 10 year Gsec (R)*
3.4%
5.7%6.1% 6.3% 6.2%
7.1%
3.4%
5.5%
6.1% 6.2% 6.1%
6.7%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
6M 5Y 7Y 8Y 10Y 40Y
YCG, Aug-21 YCG, Aug-20
754
546
846
702
480584
644 623
455
881
556457
943
320
212
421
301
498
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
(Rs bn) Corporate Debt: Private Placement: Value
(8,500)(7,500)(6,500)(5,500)(4,500)(3,500)(2,500)(1,500)
(500)500
1,5002,500
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
(Rs bn) Total liquidity for banking sector
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 33 09 September 2021
Fig 108 – 3Y AAA NBFC spread fell to 42bps as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 51bps as on 29 Jul 2021
Fig 109 – 10Y AAA NBFC spread fell to 68bps as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 77bps as on 29 Jul 2021
Fig 110 – 3Y AAA corp fell marginally to 29bps as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 30bps as on 29 Jul 2021
Fig 111 – 10Y AAA corp spread fell to 61bps as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 70bps as on 29 Jul 2021
(10)
40
90
140
190
240
Aug
-14
Nov
-14
Feb-
15
May
-15
Aug
-15
Nov
-15
Feb-
16
May
-16
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Average traded spreads of NBFCs for 3Y AAA
Mean+SD
Mean-SD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Aug
-14
Nov
-14
Feb-
15
May
-15
Aug
-15
Nov
-15
Feb-
16
May
-16
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Average traded spreads of NBFCs for 10Y AAA
Mean+SD
Mean-SD
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Aug
-14
Dec
-14
Apr
-15
Aug
-15
Dec
-15
Apr
-16
Aug
-16
Dec
-16
Apr
-17
Aug
-17
Dec
-17
Apr
-18
Aug
-18
Dec
-18
Apr
-19
Aug
-19
Dec
-19
Apr
-20
Aug
-20
Dec
-20
Apr
-21
Aug
-21
Average traded spreads of corporates for 3Y AAA
Mean+SD
Mean-SD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Aug
-14
Nov
-14
Feb-
15
May
-15
Aug
-15
Nov
-15
Feb-
16
May
-16
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Average traded spreads of corporates for 10Y AAA Mean+SD Mean-SD
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 34 09 September 2021
Fig 112 – INR 3Y swap moderated marginally to 4.69 as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 4.7 as on 30 Jul 2021
Fig 113 – For 10Y, it edged down to 5.73 as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 5.81 as on 30 Jul 2021
Interest rates on small savings schemes
Fig 114 – Interest rates on small savings scheme to remain unchanged in Q2FY22
Instrument (%) Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 GSec Yield
(1 Sep 2021)
Savings deposit 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
1 year time deposit 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 3.63
2 year time deposit 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.10
3 year time deposit 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.44
5 year time deposit 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 5.61
5 year recurring deposit 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.61
5 year senior citizen savings scheme 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 5.61
5 year monthly income scheme 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 5.61
5 year national savings certificate 8 7.9 7.9 7.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 5.61
Public provident fund scheme 8 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.20
Kisan vikas patra 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 -
Sukanya samriddhi account scheme 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 -
Source: Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Government of India
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Aug
-02
Aug
-03
Aug
-04
Aug
-05
Aug
-06
Aug
-07
Aug
-08
Aug
-09
Aug
-10
Aug
-11
Aug
-12
Aug
-13
Aug
-14
Aug
-15
Aug
-16
Aug
-17
Aug
-18
Aug
-19
Aug
-20
Aug
-21
INR Swap 3-yr Mean+SD Mean-SD
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Aug
-05
Aug
-06
Aug
-07
Aug
-08
Aug
-09
Aug
-10
Aug
-11
Aug
-12
Aug
-13
Aug
-14
Aug
-15
Aug
-16
Aug
-17
Aug
-18
Aug
-19
Aug
-20
Aug
-21
INR Swap 10-yr Mean+SD Mean-SD
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 35 09 September 2021
Fig 115 – Interest rates charged by leading banks
1Y MCLR (%) Jun’20 Jul’20 Aug’20 Sep’20 Oct’20 Nov’20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun’21 Jul’21 Aug’21
Public Sector Banks
Bank of Baroda 7.65 7.60 7.60 7.55 7.50 7.45 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.35 7.35 7.35
Bank of India 7.70 7.60 7.45 7.40 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.30 7.25
Canara Bank 7.65 7.55 7.45 7.40 7.40 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35
Indian Bank 7.50 7.40 7.35 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.35
Punjab National Bank 7.60 7.60 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.30 7.30 7.30
State Bank of India 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
Union Bank of India 7.60 7.40 7.25 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20
Private Sector Banks
Axis Bank Ltd. 7.75 7.65 7.55 7.50 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35
HDFC Bank Ltd. 7.65 7.45 7.35 7.30 7.30 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20
ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.70 7.55 7.45 7.40 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.25 7.25
Indusind Bank 9.15 9.05 8.95 8.85 8.75 8.70 8.65 8.65 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.55 8.45
Kotak Mahindra Bank 7.75 7.60 7.50 7.50 7.45 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.30 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25
Source: RBI
Mutual fund (MF) indicators
Fig 116 – Sensex rose by 9.4% to 57,552 in Aug’21, AUM of MFs also rose to Rs 37tn from Rs 35tn in Jul’21
Fig 117 – MF equity inflow moderated to Rs 90bn from Rs 214bn in Jul’21; debt outflow stood at Rs 54bn from Rs 639bn inflow in Jul’21
Source: *Sensex as on last trading day of the month.
57,552
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jul-0
1
Jul-0
3
Jul-0
5
Jul-0
7
Jul-0
9
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
1(Rs tn) AUM: Mutual fund BSE sensex* (R)
(2,500)
(1,500)
(500)
500
1,500
(150)
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
(Rs bn)(Rs bn) Net inflow Equity Net inflow Debt (R)
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 36 09 September 2021
Fig 118 – Pattern of MF deployment of equity funds Fig 119 – MF deployment of debt funds
Insurance sector indicators
Fig 120 – Sale of life insurance policies picked up to 27% in Aug’21 from 16% in Jul’21
Fig 121 – Gross direct premium for non life insurance rose to 24.4% from 19.5% in Jul’21 driven by a favourable base
36.5%
19.8%
11.8%
7.3%
6.6%
6.2%
4.7%
3.2%
2.7%
1.2%
Others
Banks
Software
Finance
Pharma
Consumer non-durables
Petroleum prod
Auto
Power
Cement
Jul-20 Jun-21 Jul-21
14% 13% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16%
18% 17% 16% 16% 17% 16% 18%
10% 11% 8% 9% 9% 13% 12%11% 13% 11% 11% 10% 12% 11%
22% 22% 23% 21% 21%21% 20%
16% 16% 16% 15% 15%14% 14%
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 8% 9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
Govt. securities Commercial Paper Tbills CBLO
Corporate Debt PSU Bonds / Debt Others
27%
(78%)
(28%)
22%
72%
122%
172%
222%
272%
Aug
-19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jun-
20
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
Number of life insurance policies sold, YoY
24.4%
(35%)
(25%)
(15%)
(5%)
5%
15%
25%
35%
Aug
-19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jun-
20
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
Non life insurance: Gross direct premium, YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 37 09 September 2021
Public finance
Central government finances
Fig 122 – Fiscal deficit eases further in Jul’21 to to 6.1% Fig 123 – Revenue deficit also down
Fig 124 – Primary deficit at 2.8% in Jul’21 Fig 125 – Government spending slowed further in Jul’21 (12MMA)…
6.7%
6.1%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
% of GDP, 12M Trailing sum
4.9%4.3%
1.8%
2.8%
3.8%
4.8%
5.8%
6.8%
7.8%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
% of GDP, 12M Trailing sum
3.4%
2.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
% of GDP, 12M Trailing sum26.5%
23.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
12M Trailing sum YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 38 09 September 2021
Fig 126 – …led by revenue spending Fig 127 – Capex picked up pace in Jul’21
Fig 128 – Spending by minstries of road transport, consumer affairs, and HRD see pick up in Jul’21
Ministry Apr-Jul’19 (Rs bn) Apr-Jul’20 (Rs bn) % change Apr-Jul’21 (Rs bn) % change
Ministry of Finance 3,009 3,786 25.8 3,557 (6.0)
Ministry of Defence 1,607 1,593 (0.8) 1,472 (7.6)
Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution 1,091 700 (35.9) 991 41.6
Ministry of Rural Development 417 1,023 145.5 539 (47.3)
Ministry of Home Affairs 438 504 15.2 566 12.3
Ministry of Human Resource Development 231 202 (12.5) 237 17.2
Ministry of Road Transport and Highways 321 266 (17.3) 515 93.7
Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers 329 313 (5.0) 268 (14.2)
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 309 196 (36.8) 25 (87.0)
Ministry of Agriculture 358 505 41.2 340 (32.7)
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare 202 271 34.2 249 (7.8)
26.8%
23.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
12M Trailing sum YoY
24.2%
29.9%
(40%)
(25%)
(10%)
5%
20%
35%
50%
65%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
12M Trailing sum YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 39 09 September 2021
Fig 129 – Receipt growth remains robust in Jul’21… Fig 130 – …as revenue receipts continue to improve
Fig 131 – Tax receipts jumped sharply Fig 132 – Non-tax revenue growth remains subdued
28.9%
35.0%
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
12M Trailing sum YoY
30.5%
35.6%
(17%)
(7%)
3%
13%
23%
33%
43%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
12M Trailing sum YoY
37.2%
43.4%
(14%)
(7%)
0%
7%
14%
21%
28%
35%
42%
49%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
12M Trailing sum YoY
5.0%
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
12M Trailing sum YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 40 09 September 2021
Fig 133 – Centre’s revenue situation in Jul’21 remains healthy; Capex growth improves while revenue spending seen declining Apr-Jul’19 (Rs bn) Apr-Jul’20 (Rs bn) % change Apr-Jul’21 (Rs bn) % change FY22BE/FY21PA % change
Gross Tax revenue 5,391 3,800 (29.5) 6,959 83.1 9.5
Direct taxes 2,171 1,450 (33.2) 3,071 111.8 19.6
Corp Tax 884 537 (39.2) 1,459 171.5 19.6
Income Tax 1,288 912 (29.1) 1,612 76.7 19.6
Indirect taxes 3,219 2,350 (27.0) 3,888 65.4 2.6
Non-tax revenue 439 246 (43.9) 1,400 468.6 16.8
Centre's revenue (net) 3,826 2,274 (40.6) 6,692 194.3 9.6
Total expenditure 9,473 10,542 11.3 10,044 (4.7) (0.8)
Capital exp 1,076 1,118 3.9 1,284 14.8 30.5
Revenue exp 8,397 9,424 12.2 8,760 (7.0) (5.1)
Fiscal deficit 5,476 8,213 50.0 3,211 (60.9) -
Fig 134 – Gross indirect tax collections remain elevated Fig 135 – Gross direct tax collections also picking up…
37.7%
41.3%
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
12M Trailing sum YoY
7.1%
12.8%
(26%)
(21%)
(16%)
(11%)
(6%)
(1%)
4%
9%
14%
19%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
12M Trailing sum YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 41 09 September 2021
Fig 136 – …as corporate tax collections rebound Fig 137 – Income tax collections maintain momentum
Fig 138 – GST collections in Jul’21 remained above Rs 1tn mark, albeit slowed marginally from Jun’21
(Rs bn) Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
Monthly
run rate
(FY22)
FYTD22 FY22
(BE)
CGST 379 324 372 429 398 430 447 666 568 555 283 337 479 413 1,653 5,300
UT GST 2.2 1.9 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 3.2 4.1 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.5 2 7 -
IGST (60) 52 (3) 2 76 124 68 (373) (104) 48 153 64 (37) 57 228 -
SGST* 475 509 612 539 596 560 531 848 862 331 402 696 601 507 2,029 -
Cess 68 69 68 78 80 82 83 93 84 92 89 66 75 80 322 1,000
Total GST 864 955 1,052 1,050 1,152 1,198 1,131 1,239 1,414 1,027 928 1,164 1,120 1,060 4,240 -
Source: PIB | *Computed from PIB and CGA data
(2.6%)
5.2%
(35%)
(28%)
(21%)
(14%)
(7%)
0%
7%
14%
21%
28%
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
12M Trailing sum YoY
18.9%
21.8%
(13%)
(8%)
(3%)
2%
7%
12%
17%
22%
27%
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
12M Trailing sum YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 42 09 September 2021
Fig 139 – Central govt. public debt rose sharply in FY21 Fig 140 – Gap between avg. yield on SDL and 10Y G-sec lowered in Aug’21; and is further down in Sep’21 so far
Source: CCIL
Fig 141 – Subsidy burden increased significantly in FY21 Fig 142 – Central govt. FY22 disinvestment status
PA-Provisional Actual; BE-Budget Estimates
40.4%
40.3%
40.4%
40.4%
40.0%
40.1%
40.8%
41.8%
42.6%
42.3%
48.0%
51.2%
51.6%
51.9%
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21% of GDP
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6
8.1
8.6
9.1
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
Sep
-21
(%) SDL Yield G-Sec (10Y)
1.3%
3.5%
1.6%
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%0.5%
2.7%
1.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
PA
FY22
BE
Total subsidy, % of GDP Fertilizer subsidy, % of GDP Food subsidy, % of GDP
84
141
1,6661,739
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Disinvestment of Govt.'s equity holdings Total Non-debt capital receipts
Jul'21 (FY22) DeficitBE FY22: 1,750 BE FY22: 1,880
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 43 09 September 2021
State government finances
Fig 143 – States* fiscal deficit remained steady in Jul’21 Fig 144 – Chhattisgarh, M.P., U.P, to remain higher deficit states in FY22 (BE)
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal Source: Budget documents
Fig 145 – Total expenditure of states* cooled further in Jul’21 Fig 146 – …as revenue spending by states* fell
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal
(3.4%)
(3.4%)
(4.5%)
(4.0%)
(3.5%)
(3.0%)
(2.5%)
(2.0%)
(1.5%)
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
% of States* GDP, 12M Trailing sum
1.6%2.2%
2.8%2.9%3.0%
3.2%3.5%3.5%3.5%
3.8%3.9%3.9%4.0%4.0%
4.2%4.5%
4.5%4.6%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
GujaratMaharashtra
JharkhandWest Bengal
BiharUttarakhand
KarnatakaOdishaKerala
HaryanaTamil NaduTelanganaRajasthan
PunjabUPMPHP
Chhattisgarh
FY22BE, Fiscal Deficit (as % of GDP)
17.7%
15.2%
(15%)
(5%)
5%
15%
25%
35%
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY11.4%
8.9%
(15%)
(7%)
1%
9%
17%
25%
33%
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 44 09 September 2021
Fig 147 – State* govt. tax revenue receipts in Jul’21 remains below pre-pandemic (Jul’19) levels; spending still higher than Jul’19 Apr-Jul’19 (Rs bn) Apr-Jul’20 (Rs bn) % change Apr-Jul’21 (Rs bn) % change
Total Receipts 6,316 6,030 (4.5) 7,043 16.8
Revenue Receipts 5,580 4,716 (15.5) 5,682 20.5
Receipts: Tax Revenue 4,193 3,055 (27.1) 4,160 36.2
Receipts: Non-Tax Revenue 404 334 (17.4) 484 44.8
Receipts: Grant in aid & contribution 928 1,455 56.8 1,118 (23.1)
Capital Receipts 736 1,314 78.6 1,361 3.6
Total Expenditure 6,182 6,035 (2.4) 6,930 14.8
Revenue Expenditure 5,538 5,662 2.2 6,152 8.7
Capital Expenditure 716 373 (47.9) 777 108.5
Revenue Surplus or Deficit 28 (1,031) - (522) -
Fiscal Surplus or Deficit (732) (1,397) - (682) -
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal
Fig 148 – Capex spending of states* also down Fig 149 – Total receipt of states* broadly stable in Jul’21
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal
141.2%
92.7%
(65%)
(35%)
(5%)
25%
55%
85%
115%
145%
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY
18.4%
18.5%
(15%)
(5%)
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 45 09 September 2021
Fig 150 – Revenue receipts of states* seen easing… Fig 151 – … As tax revenue receipts of states* cooled sharply
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal
Fig 152 – Grant in aid from Centre to states* also remains weak Fig 153 – Capital receipts of states* supported overall receipts
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal
29.1%
16.4%
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY
43.3%
21.4%
(40%)
(25%)
(10%)
5%
20%
35%
50%
65%
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY
(6.2%)
(5.4%)
(60%)
(20%)
20%
60%
100%
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY
(12.3%)
28.5% (70%)
(25%)
20%
65%
110%
155%
200%
245%
290%
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
3M Trailing sum YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 46 09 September 2021
Central government borrowing
Fig 154 – Centre’s T-bill issuances at Rs 2.5tn in Q2 till date Fig 155 – Centre’s gross borrowing in Q2 till date is at Rs 2.7tn
Total accepted amount
(G-Sec), (Rs bn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
FY22
(planned)
Q1 2,613 2,797 2,888 3,089 3,364 5,328 5,375 4,680
Q2 2,667 2,584 3,186 3,299 3,024 5,417 2473^ 2,210
Q3 2,645 2,747 2,632 3,070 2,889 3,745 - -
Q4 2,104 1,684 2,486 1,812 2,511 2,714 - -
Total 10,029 9,811 11,192 11,271 11,788 17,204 - -
Total accepted amount
(G-Sec), (Rs bn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
FY22
(planned)
Q1 1,740 1,500 1,680 1,320 2,040 3,140 3,064 3,800
Q2 1,630 1,910 1,890 1,440 2,210 4,220 2696* 3,440
Q3 1,640 1,610 1,640 1,270 1,930 2,910 - 2,408
Q4 840 800 670 1680 920 3,191 - 2,408
Total 5,850 5,820 5,880 5,710 7,100 13,461^ - 12,055
Source: RBI^Till 3 Sep 2021 Source: RBI^ Against budgeted Rs 12.8tn *Till 3 Sep 2021
State government borrowing
Fig 156 – State government borrowings picked in Aug’21, was also higher than last year
Fig 157 – States’ market borrowings on the rise in Q2FY22
Quarterly SDL issuances,
(Rs bn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
FYTD22
(actual)
FY22
(planned)
Q1 502 548 650 766 815 1,673 1,491 1,783
Q2 627 792 1,130 809 1,439 1,614 1267* 1,696
Q3 858 1,214 1,054 1,277 1,470 2,023 - -
Q4 959 1,322 1,348 1,809 2,006 2,448 - -
Total 2,946 3,876 4,182 4,661 5,731 7,757 - -
Source: RBI Source: RBI; * as of 7 Sep 2021
556506
607
50
200
350
500
650
800
950
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
(Rs bn) Monthly SDL issuances
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 47 09 September 2021
External sector
Exports
Fig 158 – Global exports increasing steadily Fig 159 – India’s exports decelerate in Aug’21
Note: Figure for Aug’21 is average YoY growth for Aug-Sep’21
Exports by major sectors
Fig 160 – … led by moderation in oil exports Fig 161 – .. and exports of gems and jewellery
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
(60%)
(20%)
20%
60%
100%
Aug
-05
Aug
-06
Aug
-07
Aug
-08
Aug
-09
Aug
-10
Aug
-11
Aug
-12
Aug
-13
Aug
-14
Aug
-15
Aug
-16
Aug
-17
Aug
-18
Aug
-19
Aug
-20
Aug
-21
India exports, YoY 3MMA World exports index, YoY 3MMA (R)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Aug
-14
Feb-
15
Aug
-15
Feb-
16
Aug
-16
Feb-
17
Aug
-17
Feb-
18
Aug
-18
Feb-
19
Aug
-19
Feb-
20
Aug
-20
Feb-
21
Aug
-21
GDP: Exports growth, YoY Exports growth, 3MMA YoY
(80%)
(40%)
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
200%
240%
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Oil exports, YoY Oil exports, 3MMA YoY
(110%)
(60%)
(10%)
40%
90%
140%
190%
240%
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Gems and jewellery, YoY Gems and jewellery, 3MMA YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 48 09 September 2021
Fig 162 – Exports of engineering goods picked up in Aug’21 Fig 163 – Similar trend in exports of chemicals
Imports
Fig 164 – Imports rose to US$ 47bn in Aug’21 from US$ 46.4bn in Jul’21 Fig 165 – Over a 2-year horizon, imports have risen by 18%, non-oil-non-gold imports have remained muted at 4.1%
Note: Figure for Aug’21 is average YoY growth for Aug-Sep’21
(70%)
(30%)
10%
50%
90%
130%
170%
210%
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Engineering goods, YoY Engineering goods, 3MMA YoY
(50%)
(35%)
(20%)
(5%)
10%
25%
40%
55%
70%
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Chemicals, YoY Chemicals, 3MMA YoY
(60%)
(30%)
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
Aug
-14
Feb-
15
Aug
-15
Feb-
16
Aug
-16
Feb-
17
Aug
-17
Feb-
18
Aug
-18
Feb-
19
Aug
-19
Feb-
20
Aug
-20
Feb-
21
Aug
-21
GDP: Imports growth, YoY Imports growth, 3MMA YoY
(60%)
(45%)
(30%)
(15%)
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
(%) Imports, 2Yr % Non-oil-non-gold imports, 2Yr %
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 49 09 September 2021
Fig 166 – Gold imports rose to US$ 6.7bn from US$ 4.2bn in Jul’21; lower on a YoY basis
Fig 167 – Oil imports moderated in Aug’21
Fig 168 – Improvement in imports of machinery Fig 169 – Iron and steel imports also rise in Aug’21
(120%)
0%
120%
240%
360%
480%
600%
720%
840%
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Gold imports, YoY Gold imports, 3MMA YoY
(120%)
(80%)
(40%)
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
200%
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Oil imports, YoY Oil imports, 3MMA YoY
(65%)
(40%)
(15%)
10%
35%
60%
85%
110%
135%
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Machinery, YoY Machinery, 3MMA YoY
(70%)
(40%)
(10%)
20%
50%
80%
110%
140%
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
Iron and steel, YoY Iron and steel, 3MMA YoY
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 50 09 September 2021
Exports and imports by major regions
Fig 170 – Exports to all regions have picked up in FYTD22 (Apr-Jul’21)
Region (% YoY) Share in FY21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
Americas 23.7 53.5 263.0 92.6 51.5 56.8
Asia and Pacific (Ex. China) 27.3 88.1 205.9 76.0 34.4 31.7
China 7.4 148.8 101.9 (6.1) 9.4 22.5
Europe 19.2 70.9 240.3 77.2 58.4 65.2
Middle East and Africa 22.0 32.5 172.7 77.3 72.2 61.1
Other 0.4 (47.7) 202.7 (57.0) 10.0 7.8
Fig 171 – ..similar trend in imports
Region (% YoY) Share in FY21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
Americas 12.8 35.2 99.0 50.8 95.8 51.7
Asia and Pacific (Ex. China) 25.0 54.5 151.7 53.6 85.2 41.2
China 13.8 137.6 114.8 52.9 110.1 26.0
Europe 15.0 140.5 338.3 24.2 86.0 57.7
Middle East and Africa 30.8 18.1 207.9 157.6 107.9 119.7
Other 2.6 (18.3) 33.8 114.3 57.3 (10.7)
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 51 09 September 2021
Trade deficit
Fig 172 – Trade deficit expands further to US$ 13.9bn from US$ 11bn in Jul’21 Fig 173 – …even as oil prices moderated
Trade in services BoP
Fig 174 – Services exports rose by 8.8% in Jul’21 versus 16.1% growth in Jun’21 Fig 175 – Current account deficit expands to 1% of GDP in Q4FY21
(21)
(18)
(15)
(12)
(9)
(6)
(3)
0
3
Aug
-15
Nov
-15
Feb-
16
May
-16
Aug
-16
Nov
-16
Feb-
17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
(US$ bn) Trade balance
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
(20)
(16)
(12)
(8)
(4)
0
4
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb-
20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
(US$/bbl)(US$ bn) Trade balance Crude prices (Avg.) (R)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan-
17
Apr
-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
Apr
-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Apr
-20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Jan-
21
Apr
-21
Jul-2
1
(YoY) Services exports, YoY Services exports, YoY 3MMA
Q4FY21, (1%)(3%)
(1%)
1%
3%
5%
Jun-
15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Current account balance as % of GDP
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 52 09 September 2021
Fig 176 – Led by higher trade deficit
(US$ bn) Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21
Current account 0.6 19.1 15.3 (2.2) (8.2)
CAD/GDP (%) 0.1 3.7 2.4 (0.3) (1.0)
Trade balance (35.0) (11.0) (14.8) (34.6) (41.7)
- Merchandise exports 76.5 52.2 75.6 77.2 91.3
- Merchandise imports 111.6 63.2 90.4 111.8 133
- Net Services 22 20.8 21.1 23.2 23.5
--Software 21.1 20.8 22 23.5 23.5
Transfers 18.4 17 18.4 19.3 18.8
Other invisibles (4.8) (7.7) (9.4) (10.1) (8.7)
Capital account 17.4 1.4 15.9 34.1 12.3
% of GDP 2.4 0.3 2.5 4.6 1.6
Foreign investments (1.8) 0.1 31.4 38.6 10.0
- FDI 12.0 (0.5) 24.4 17.4 2.7
- FII (13.7) 0.6 7.0 21.2 7.3
Banking capital (4.6) 2.2 (11.3) (7.6) (4.4)
Short-term credit (1.0) (0.2) (1.8) 0.2 (2.3)
ECBs 10.3 (1.2) (4.0) (1.1) 6.1
External assistance 0.6 4.1 1.9 1.2 4.0
Other capital account items 13.8 (3.7) (0.3) 2.8 (1.0)
E&O 0.9 (0.6) 0.4 0.6 (0.7)
Overall balance 18.8 19.9 31.6 32.5 3.4
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 53 09 September 2021
Foreign inflows
FII inflows FDI inflows
Fig 177 – FII inflows rise to US$ 2.9bn in Aug’21 after outflows of US$ 1.8bn in Jul’21
Fig 178 – FDI inflows moderate to US$ 2.8bn in Jun’21 after rising sharply by US$ 10.6bn in May’21
Source: Bloomberg Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 179 – FDI inflows in auto and computer, software remained rise in Q1FY22 Fig 180 – FDI inflows from Singapore accelerate the most in Q1FY22
Sector % Share FY21 Jun'20 Sep'20 Dec'20 Mar'21 Jun'21
Computer software and hardware
25.8 1.1 16.5 6.8 1.8 3.1
Services Sector 5.0 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.9
Trading 2.6 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.6
Automobile industry 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 4.7
Telecommunications 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
Country (US$ bn) % Share in FY21 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21
Singapore 29.2 1.8 6.5 7.4 1.7 3.3
Mauritius 9.5 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.2 3.3
Netherlands 4.7 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 1.1
UK 3.4 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.3
Japan 3.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.5
Source: DIPP Source: DIPP
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
(18)
(14)
(10)
(6)
(2)
2
6
10
Aug
-16
Dec
-16
Apr
-17
Aug
-17
Dec
-17
Apr
-18
Aug
-18
Dec
-18
Apr
-19
Aug
-19
Dec
-19
Apr
-20
Aug
-20
Dec
-20
Apr
-21
Aug
-21
(US$ bn)(US$ bn) FII-Net equity FII-Net debt FII-Net Total, 12M Trailing sum (R)
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
(US$ bn)(US$ bn) FDI inflows FDI inflows, 12M Trailing sum (R)
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 54 09 September 2021
Forex reserves and external debt
Fig 181 – India’s FX reserves rise to a record-high of US$ 633.6bn in Aug’21, US$ 54.3bn accretion in FYTD22
Fig 182 – Import cover dips in Jul’21 but remains above long-term average
Source: Bloomberg | Weekly data as of 27 Aug 2021
Fig 183 – RBI purchased US$ 18.6bn in the spot market in Jun’21 comapred with US$ 5.8bn in May’21
Fig 184 – In forwards market, RBI sold US$ 10.3bn in Jun’21, outstanding position at US$ 49.6bn
58
63
68
73
78
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Aug
-14
Feb-
15
Aug
-15
Feb-
16
Aug
-16
Feb-
17
Aug
-17
Feb-
18
Aug
-18
Feb-
19
Aug
-19
Feb-
20
Aug
-20
Feb-
21
Aug
-21
(US$ bn) Forex reserves USD/INR (R)
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
(Months) Import cover Average import cover (Jul'16 to Jul'21)
(8)
(4)
0
4
8
12
16
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
(US$ bn) Net FX intervention: Cash
(25)
(10)
5
20
35
50
65
80
Jun-
16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
(US$ bn) Net FX intervention: Forwards (outstanding)
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 55 09 September 2021
Markets
Equity
Fig 185 – In Sep’21, Sensex rose marginally by 0.1% Fig 186 – In Aug’21, Sensex rose the most by 11.5%, while MSCI EM rose by 2.4%
Source: Bloomberg | * As on 8 Sep 2021, Indices are in US$ terms Source: Bloomberg | * As on 31 Aug 2021, Indices are in US$ terms
Fig 187 – In CYTD21, Sensex rose by 20.7% Fig 188 – VIX index rose to 14.5 in Aug’21 from 12.8 in Jul’21
Source: Bloomberg | * As on 31 Aug 2021, Indices are in US$ terms Source: Bloomberg
7.1%3.7%
2.5%1.7%
0.5%0.4%0.4%
0.1%(0.2%)
(0.9%)(0.9%)
(1.3%)(1.4%)
(1.8%)(1.9%)
(2.4%)
(4%) 1% 6%
JapanChina
RussiaHong Kong
AustraliaMSCI EM Equity
SingaporeIndia
UKPortugal
USGermanyThailand
GreeceKorea
Indonesia
Equity Index MTD (% change)
11.5%9.9%
7.3%5.6%
4.3%3.5%
3.0%2.8%
2.5%2.4%
1.5%1.4%
0.2%(0.4%)
(26%)(4.4%)
India
Thailand
Portugal
Russia
China
Greece
Indonesia
Japan
US
MSCI EM Equity
Australia
Germany
UK
Hong Kong
Singapore
Korea
Equity Index MoM (% change)
21.2%20.7%
16.3%11.0%10.9%
10.2%8.7%
6.8%5.6%
5.0%4.7%
3.1%1.5%1.3%
(3.9%)(5.3%)
Russia
India
US
UK
Germany
Greece
Australia
Portugal
Singapore
Thailand
Korea
China
Indonesia
MSCI EM Equity
Japan
Hong Kong
Equity Index CYTD21 (% change)
51525354555657585
10
15
20
25
30
35
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
NSE volatility index Chicago board options exchange volatility index (R)
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 56 09 September 2021
Fig 189 – Power and technology stocks rose the most Fig 190 – Large caps rose the most
Source: Bloomberg | As on 31 Aug 2021 Source: Bloomberg | As on 31 Aug 2021
10-year bond yields
Fig 191 – In Sep’21, India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps in contrast with global yields Fig 192 – In Aug’21, India’s 10y yield rose a tad by 1bps
Source: Bloomberg | * As on 8 Sep 2021, Note: For India 6.10GS2031 yield is taken Source: Bloomberg | * As on 31 Aug 2021, Note: For India 6.10GS2031 yield is taken
11.6%
10.9%
10.6%
5.8%
5.5%
2.7%
0.4%
(2.1%)
(3.1%)
POWER
TECK
OIL AND GAS
BANKEX
CAPITAL GOODS
CONSUMER DURABLES
AUTO
METAL
REALTY
Performance of majore sectors in BSE, MoM
9.4%
8.0%
3.3%
0.5%
BSE
BSE LargeCap
BSE MidCap
BSE SmallCap
Performances according to mcap, MoM
1413
1211
1110
65
333
222
(3)
Australia
Thailand
Greece
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Korea
Germany
Portugal
Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Aggregate Yield to worst
UK
US
China
Japan
Singapore
India
10 year generic yields. MTD, bps
1615
119
85
444
10
(1)(3)
Greece
UK
Singapore
US
Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Portugal
Thailand
India
Japan
China
Australia
10 year generic yields, MoM, bps
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 57 09 September 2021
Fig 193 – In FYTD22, only India’s 10Y yield rose by 5bps in contrast with falling global yields
Fig 194 – In CYTD21, India’s 10Y yield rose by 35bps
Source: Bloomberg | * As on 31 Aug 2021, Note: For India 6.10GS2031 yield is taken Source: Bloomberg | * As on 31 Aug 2021, Note: For India 6.10GS2031 yield is taken
Currencies
Fig 195 – INR appreciated by 1.6% in Aug’21 Fig 196 – INR still overvalued by 4.3% (Jul’21)
Source: Bloomberg | *As on 31 Aug 2021 Source: Bloomberg
5(2)
(7)(9)
(10)(13)
(15)(19)
(32)(34)
(39)(40)
(43)
India
Portugal
Japan
Germany
Greece
UK
Korea
Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Aggregate Yield to worst
Singapore
China
Thailand
Hong Kong
US
10 year generic yields, FYTD22, bps
5752
4039
3532
261919191818
14
Singapore
UK
US
Hong Kong
India
Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Aggregate…
Thailand
Korea
Germany
Australia
Portugal
Indonesia
Greece
10 year generic yields, CYTD21, bps
58
63
68
73
78
Aug
-14
Feb-
15
Aug
-15
Feb-
16
Aug
-16
Feb-
17
Aug
-17
Feb-
18
Aug
-18
Feb-
19
Aug
-19
Feb-
20
Aug
-20
Feb-
21
Aug
-21
USD/INR
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
109
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan-
17
Apr
-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
Apr
-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Apr
-20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Jan-
21
Apr
-21
Jul-2
1
USD/INR REER Trade weighted (40 currencies) (R)
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 58 09 September 2021
Fig 197 – Lower oil prices supported INR Fig 198 – EM currencies also appreciated in Aug’21
Source: Bloomberg | *As on 31 Aug 2021 Source: Bloomberg | *As on 31 Aug 2021
Fig 199 – Global currencies were mixed in Aug’21 Fig 200 – In CYTD21, INR has fallen by 0.3%
Source: Bloomberg | *As on 31 Aug 2021 Source: Bloomberg | *As on 31 Aug 2021
10
30
50
70
90
110
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
Aug
-14
Feb-
15
Aug
-15
Feb-
16
Aug
-16
Feb-
17
Aug
-17
Feb-
18
Aug
-18
Feb-
19
Aug
-19
Feb-
20
Aug
-20
Feb-
21
Aug
-21
(US$/bbl)USD/INR Brent (R)
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
5759616365676971737577
Aug
-14
Feb-
15
Aug
-15
Feb-
16
Aug
-16
Feb-
17
Aug
-17
Feb-
18
Aug
-18
Feb-
19
Aug
-19
Feb-
20
Aug
-20
Feb-
21
Aug
-21
USD/INR MSCI EM (R)
(1.4%)(1.0%)(1.0%)
(0.7%)(0.6%)
(0.5%)(0.2%)
(0.1%)0.1%
0.4%0.5%
0.6%0.7%
1.3%1.6%1.6%
KRW
CAD
GBP
AUD
EUR
RUB
JPY
CNY
PHP
NZD
DXY
IDR
SGD
THB
INR
MYR
MoM change (Aug'21) (%)
(7.7%)(6.9%)
(6.1%)(5.2%)
(3.8%)(3.4%)(3.2%)
(2.6%)(2.2%)
(1.7%)(0.3%)
0.7%0.9%0.9%
1.2%
3.0%
THB
KRW
JPY
AUD
PHP
EUR
MYR
NZD
IDR
SGD
INR
GBP
CNY
CAD
RUB
DXY
CYTD21 change (%)
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 59 09 September 2021
Commodities
Fig 201 – US rig count inched up Fig 202 – US crude oil inventories dropped, showing improved demand
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Fig 203 – Oil prices on an average fell to US$ 70.5/bbl from US$ 74.3/bbl, DXY inched up to 92.63 from 92.17
Fig 204 – Precious metals declined the most, bitcoin rose the most
Source: Bloomberg | DXY Index as on last trading day of the month Source: Bloomberg | Index as on last trading day of the month
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
Apr
-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Apr
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
May
-21
Aug
-21
US oil Rig count Brent US$ (R)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Aug
-18
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Feb-
19
Apr
-19
Jun-
19
Aug
-19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Apr
-20
Jun-
20
Aug
-20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Apr
-21
Jun-
21
Aug
-21
(US$/bbl)(000/bbl) US crude inventories Brent (R)
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb
-18
May
-18
Aug
-18
Nov
-18
Feb
-19
May
-19
Aug
-19
Nov
-19
Feb
-20
May
-20
Aug
-20
Nov
-20
Feb
-21
May
-21
Aug
-21
(US$/bbl)Brent (R) DXY Currency
18.5%
2.4%
1.0%
0.5%
(0.5%)
(1.1%)
(1.2%)
(5.1%)
(7.2%)
Bitcoin Index
MSCI Equity Index
Agri Index
MSCI Currency Index
CRB Comm. Index
XAU Curncy (US$/troy ounce)
Base Metal
International Crude (US$ /bbl)
Precious metal index
Movement of major asset classes, MoM, Aug'21
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 60 09 September 2021
Global consumption
Fig 205 – Retail sales moderate in Jul’21 Fig 206 – Auto sales drop significantly in Jul’21
Note:Retail sales for US till Jun’21 Note: Auto sales for Eurozone till Jun’21
Fig 207 – Consumer confidence falls across the board Fig 208 – CPI continue to edge upwards in Eurozone; Cools-off in China
Note: Consumer confidence for eurozone is % diffusion index. Data for China is for Jul21 Note: Data for Eurozone till Aug’21
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan-
16
Apr
-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan-
17
Apr
-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
Apr
-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Apr
-20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Jan-
21
Apr
-21
Jul-2
1
(3MMA, YoY) US Eurozone China
(65%)
(45%)
(25%)
(5%)
15%
35%
55%
75%
95%
115%
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan-
16
Apr
-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan-
17
Apr
-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
Apr
-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Apr
-20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Jan-
21
Apr
-21
Jul-2
1
(3MMA, YoY ) US Eurozone China
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug
-15
Dec
-15
Apr
-16
Aug
-16
Dec
-16
Apr
-17
Aug
-17
Dec
-17
Apr
-18
Aug
-18
Dec
-18
Apr
-19
Aug
-19
Dec
-19
Apr
-20
Aug
-20
Dec
-20
Apr
-21
Aug
-21
(% Balance)US China Eurozone (R)
(0.5%)
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
Aug
-16
Dec
-16
Apr
-17
Aug
-17
Dec
-17
Apr
-18
Aug
-18
Dec
-18
Apr
-19
Aug
-19
Dec
-19
Apr
-20
Aug
-20
Dec
-20
Apr
-21
Aug
-21
(YoY) US Eurozone China
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 61 09 September 2021
Policy
Fig 209 – Bank of Korea surprises with a rate-hike
Country Current inflation rate (%) Current policy rate (%) CY20 (change in bps) CYTD21 (change in bps) Direction of policy rate in CYTD21
Brazil 8.99 5.25 (250) 325 �
Russia 6.68 6.5 (200) 225 �
Turkey 19.25 19.00 500 200 �
Korea 2.60 0.75 (75) 25 �
Mexico 5.81 4.50 (300) 25 �
Germany 3.90 0 0 0 -
UK 2.00 0.10 (65) 0 -
US 5.40 0.25 (150) 0 -
India 5.59 4 (115) 0 -
Japan -0.30 -0.10 0 0 -
China 1.00 4.35 0 0 -
Australia 3.80 0.1 (65) 0 -
Thailand -0.02 0.5 (75) 0 -
Malaysia 2.20 1.75 (125) 0 -
Phillipines 4.90 2.00 (200) 0 -
Indonesia 1.59 3.5 (125) (25) �
Source: Bloomberg
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 62 09 September 2021
Global investment and manufacturing
Fig 210 – Global manufacturing and services PMI both seen easing in Aug’21 Fig 211 – Barring US, manufacturing activity (PMI) slowed elsewhere in Aug’21
Fig 212 – Producer prices continue to remain elevated Fig 213 – Industrial production seen slowing in Aug’21
22263034
38424650545862
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
Global manufacturing PMI Global services PMI
32
37
42
47
52
57
62
67
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
China (official) Japan US ISM Germany
(4)
(3)
(1)
1
2
4
5
7
8
10
11
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
(%YoY)US China Japan Germany
(23)(19)(15)(11)(7)(3)159131721
(9)
(2)
6
13
20
27
34
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
-21
Jul-2
1
(3MMA, YoY ) China Japan (R) US (R) Germany (R)
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 63 09 September 2021
Global trade
Fig 214 – World trade volume improves further in Jun’21 Fig 215 – Trade volumes improving across the board
Country/Region (% YoY)
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21
Africa and Middle East (3.6) (4.6) (3.8) (2.8) 7.4 9.7
China 39.7 37.9 18.4 23.0 21.6 14.6
Eastern Europe / CIS (0.1) 0.6 2.1 6.9 7.8 9.3
Emerging Asia (ex. China)
3.5 7.4 16.0 34.8 36.0 28.3
Euro Area (2.8) (3.0) 12.1 37.6 26.2 14.0
Japan 4.1 8.3 1.0 11.5 17.9 18.5
Latin America (0.9) 1.0 12.4 23.4 42.7 20.3
US 2.5 (0.7) 8.3 27.4 29.8 21.2
Source: CPB, World Trade Monitor Source: CPB, World Trade Monitor
Fig 216 – China’s exports stabilise in Aug’21 Fig 217 – Imports remain muted
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
(16%)
(12%)
(8%)
(4%)
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21
Global, 3MMA YoY
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
(3MMA, YoY ) US Japan Germany China
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug
-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr
-21
May
-21
Jun-
21
Jul-2
1
Aug
-21
(3MMA, YoY ) US Japan Germany China
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 64 09 September 2021
Fig 218 – Performance of high frequency indicators
Indicators Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
Agriculture
Domestic Tractor Sales 64.8 26.7 9.0 48.3 41.2 47.5 30.4 170.4 480.8 (2.4) 22.1 8.2 -
Two Wheeler Sales (28.7) (12.6) (26.8) (21.4) 11.9 (8.8) (16.0) (35.0) - 158.3 16.9 27.6 6.7
MNREGA work (HH, MoM) (24) 0.3 (0.3) (6.6) 16.6 (0.7) 8.9 (8.5) 4.2 1.3 26.8 (9.2) (22.0)
Manufacturing
IIP: General index (7.1) 1.0 4.5 (1.6) 2.2 (0.6) (3.2) 24.2 134.6 28.6 13.6 - -
IIP: Manufacturing (7.6) 0.4 4.5 (1.6) 2.7 (0.9) (3.4) 28.4 197.9 33.5 13.0 - -
IIP: Capital goods (14.4) (1.2) 3.2 (7.5) 2.2 (9.0) (4.2) 50.4 1042.9 78.2 25.7 - -
IIP: Infra & Construction goods 0 4.0 10.9 2.1 3.1 2.3 (3.5) 35.1 596.1 45.6 19.1 - -
IIP: Consumer goods (10.2) 5.3 18.1 (3.2) 6.5 (0.1) 6.6 59.9 1943.6 91.9 30.1 - -
Steel 0.5 6.2 5.9 0.7 3.5 8.2 2.2 31.5 472.7 55.3 24.9 9.3 -
Cement (14.5) (3.4) 3.2 (7.3) (7.2) (5.8) 0.2 40.6 582.7 8.3 7.5 21.8 -
Electricity (1.8) 4.8 11.2 3.5 5.1 5.5 0.2 22.5 38.5 7.5 8.2 9.0 -
PMI: Manufacturing 52 56.8 58.9 56.3 56.4 57.7 57.5 55.4 55.5 50.8 48.1 55.3 52.3
Services
Services PMI index 41.8 49.8 54.1 53.7 52.3 52.8 55.3 54.6 54.0 46.4 41.2 45.4 56.7
Automobile sales (26.8) (10.2) (24.0) (19.3) 11.0 (9.7) (13.4) (28.6) - 164.4 22.6 34.1 14.5
Passenger vehicle sales (7.1) 9.8 (8.8) 4.2 24.0 (4.5) 10.6 28.4 - 178.8 43.5 62.9 38.7
Vehicle Registration (25.4) (8.4) (22.3) (17.5) 11.7 (8.6) (12.6) (27.7) 215.6 158.5 22.5 33.9 14.2
Rail freight traffic 3.9 15.5 15.4 9.0 8.7 8.7 5.5 26.6 70.7 39.1 20.5 18.4 16.9
Port Cargo volume (10.4) (1.9) (1.2) 2.8 4.4 4.0 1.9 16.4 29.5 33.0 19.5 6.7 11.4
Credit growth 5.5 5.1 5.6 5.9 6.3 5.9 6.6 5.6 6.2 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.5
Deposit growth 10.9 10.5 11.1 10.7 10.8 11.1 12.1 11.4 11.2 9.5 9.8 9.8 10.6
CIC 23.2 22.7 20.3 22.8 22.4 21.4 20.3 17.2 15.0 13.2 12.0 10.3 9.8
Toll collection (in mn) 96.8 110.1 122.4 124.9 138.4 149.2 159 193.3 164.3 116.5 157.9 192.3 201.2
Diesel consumption (20.7) (5.9) 7.5 (6.9) (2.7) (2.1) (8.4) 27.6 105.4 0.8 (1.5) 11.5 14.9
GST E-way bill (in mn) 49.4 57.4 64.2 57.7 64.2 62.9 63.8 71.2 58.8 40.0 54.7 64.2 65.9
External Trade
Merchandise exports (12.2) 6.0 (4.9) (8.4) 0.4 6.4 (0.8) 60.3 195.7 68.1 48.3 49.9 45.2
Merchandise imports (26.0) (19.6) (10.3) (12.2) 8.4 2.0 7.0 53.8 167.1 68.7 98.3 63.0 51.5
Services exports (9.9) (1.4) (6.3) (5.1) (6.4) (10.1) (1.0) 12.6 6.7 3.5 16.1 8.8 -
Services imports (20.1) (8.7) (12.3) (11.8) (8.4) (15.9) (4.1) 12.8 6.4 3.0 11.9 10.1 -
Source: CEIC, MoRTH, Posoco, Markit, RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 65 09 September 2021
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