Bouncing Back From Drought, How Resilient are Citrus and

Almonds?

Mark SkewesResearch Scientist – Drought Response

Loxton Research Centre

Defining Resilience

• Crop Resilience• Survival• Productivity

• Business Resilience• Individual Businesses• Regional Economy

SURVIVALCrop Resilience

11 February 2008

23 June 2009

30 June 2010

20 October 2011

PRODUCTIVITYCrop Resilience

Drought Monitoring Program

Yield/Applied Water (NP Almonds)

Yield/ETc (NP Almonds)

Yield/Applied Water (Citrus)

Yield/ETc (Citrus)

Crop Resilience Strategies

• Canopy reduction• Reduce crop water demand• Reduce stress

• Partial cover irrigation• Reduce evaporative losses• Some issues with recovery

• “Sunscreen” products• Reduce stress• Limited success

INDIVIDUAL BUSINESSESBusiness Resilience

Almonds

• High water requirements

• Cost of production increasing

• Returns high

• Cost of replacement water generally justified

• Few plantings removed

Citrus

• Moderate water requirements

• Cost of production increasing

• Returns variable (varieties, markets)

• Cost of replacement water often justified

• Some plantings removed

Wine Grapes

• Low water requirements

• Cost of production increasing

• Returns low (often below cost of production)

• Cost of replacement water not justified

• Many plantings removed

REGIONAL ECONOMYBusiness Resilience

Drought vs. Murray-Darling Basin Plan

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Season

Wat

er A

vail

abil

ity

(%)

Drought

Drought vs. Murray-Darling Basin Plan

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Season

Wat

er A

vail

abil

ity

(%)

Drought

Basin Plan

Conclusions

• Resilience measured at different scales• Survival of permanent plantings is

paramount• Management techniques are available

to maintained production • Business survival is about more than

just crop response to water deficit• Regional economies generally coped

with short term drought, but.......?