74 CHAPTER TWO Tourism: Its origins, growth and future

about grappling with uncertainty, beyond the planning horizon of most individuals and businesses. In contrast the approach used by economists, namely econometrics – using past trends and future growth assumptions to forecast changes – is seen as more scientific and precise. The problem in many cases, is that forecasts are rarely achieved. To illustrate how the scenario and forecasting approach have been used, the example of New Zealand’s international tour-ism prospects is reviewed in Box 2.4 because it is an example of where many growth forecasts were achieved.

Whilst the forecasts of future tourism illustrates the importance of looking ahead in trying to anticipate changes, one new trend which is emerging as a potential growth area is space tourism.

BOX 2.4: CASE STUDY: FORECASTING INTERNATIONAL GROWTH IN NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand’s international tourism market depends upon long-haul mar-kets and Australia as sources of tourism demand. Research commissioned by the government’s Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (FRST) – set out to forecast overseas visitor arrivals as an approximation of likely growth targets for the new millennium. Table 2.6 shows that 1992 was the milestone year for New Zealand with tourism exceeding one million arrivals and 2003 saw the two million mark exceeded. After 2003, the fore-cast was for a rise to three million visitors by 2010, according to research by McDermott Fairgray (who completed the initial forecasting work in Table 2.6 ) in 2004.

In view of the need to constantly review the accuracy of forecasts, and of the changing market conditions which impact upon visitor arrivals (i.e. eco-nomic factors, crises, exchange rates and tastes), the Tourism Research Council of New Zealand commissioned a review of international visitor arriv-als 2004 – 2010 and then for 2006 to 2013. What is notable from Table 2.6 is the accuracy of the original McDermott Fairgray forecast for 2003. But the review of forecasts for 2006 to 2013 saw a downgrading of original esti-mates of when New Zealand might expect to receive or exceed three million international arrivals from 2010 to 2012. This was based on an annual rate of growth of 4 per cent in international arrivals, down from an estimated 5.8 per cent growth 2004 – 2010 which would have seen international tour-ism triple in volume 1992 – 2010 and double in size 2003 – 2010 had the forecasts been achieved. In 2006, international arrivals were dom inated by Australia, the UK, USA, Japan, South Korea, China and Germany.

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