bradesco 3rd brazil investment forum
TRANSCRIPT
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The future is now
Luciano Siani Pires, Vale CFO
Bradesco 3rd Brazil Investment Forum
São Paulo, April 6th, 2016
1
Dis
clai
mer
“This presentation may include statements that present Vale's
expectations about future events or results. All statements,
when based upon expectations about the future and not on
historical facts, involve various risks and uncertainties. Vale
cannot guarantee that such statements will prove correct.
These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the
following: (a) the countries where we operate, especially
Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy; (c) the capital
markets; (d) the mining and metals prices and their
dependence on global industrial production, which is cyclical
by nature; and (e) global competition in the markets in which
Vale operates. To obtain further information on factors that
may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale,
please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Brazilian Comissão de
Valores Mobiliários (CVM), the French Autorité des Marchés
Financiers (AMF) and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong
Limited, and in particular the factors discussed under
“Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in Vale’s
annual report on Form 20-F.”
2
Age
nda 1. Market outlook
2. Impact on Vale’s performance
3. Paving the future
3
Market outlook
4
A recent adjustment in the prices of certain commodities reflecting a
positive feeling in the balance of supply and demand
Source: Bloomberg
Copper
Nickel
Iron Ore
Oil (US$/barrel)
24% 7%
20%
7%
Percentual raise in prices from
11/02/2016 to 05/04/2016 US$/ton
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
11-Feb-16 26-Feb-16 12-Mar-16 27-Mar-16
20
25
30
35
40
45
11-Feb-16 26-Feb-16 12-Mar-16 27-Mar-16
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
11-Feb-16 26-Feb-16 12-Mar-16 27-Mar-16
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
11-Feb-16 26-Feb-16 12-Mar-16 27-Mar-16
5
On the demand side, the rebound in some chinese economic
indicators contributed positively
Source: CEIC
% y/y 3mma
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Floor space sold
Started constructions
Completed buildings
Example
6
The iron ore forecasted oversupply for 2016 tends to be softened
1.611 1.645 (10-20) (10-15) (25-35) 10-15 1.585 – 1.615
Oferta2015¹
Projeçõesiniciais2016¹
Majorsaustralianos
Ramp upnovos
projetos
Domésticochinês
Índia Ofertarevisada
2016
2
¹ Mercado transoceânico, incluindo pelotas, e oferta doméstica chinesa
Mt
+2%
-2% a 0%
7
35
119
166
102
63
-79
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Supply and demand balance¹
kt
1,997 1,9571,821
2014 2015 2016E
World Ni supply
kt
-5% -2%
1 Supply and demand balance excluding the inventories in the LME and SHFE.
Source: Macquarie
However, the nickel inventory levels in the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange
(approximately 500kt) will hamper any significant price recovery in the short term
Forecasts indicate a potential deficit¹ in the nickel market in 2016
8
35
5
14
13
33
100
The LME-deliverable nickel volumes represent only 35% of the total
market and there are positive indicators in the other segments
Non-Deliverable LME Products (65% of total)
%
LME
Deliverable1
Non-
Deliverable
Finished
Nickel
FeNi Stainless
Steel Scrap
NPI Total
1 Considers all the on-spec and hi-spec products according to the LME physical and chemical standards
Source: Wood Mackenzie and Vale’s analysis
• Increase of FeNi and
finished nickel imports in
China
• Substantial improvement
at the discounts and
premiums over the LME
prices in scrap, FeNi and
other finished nickel
products
9
Impact on Vale’s
performance
10
The drastic fall in prices has significantly impacted Vale’s adjusted
EBITDA¹
US$ billion Adjusted EBITDA margin (%)
33,7
19,2
22,6
13,4
7,1
169,2
130,0 135,2
96,9
55,5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
40.2
¹ Adjusted EBITDA excludes gains and/or losses on sales of assets and non-recurring expenses and includes dividends received from
non-consolidated affiliates
48.2 35.6 27.7 55.3
Platts IODEX Iron Ore Price
Average (US$/t)
11
13.353 14.005
4.092
1.237
1.699
955 250 7.081
2014 Prices Exchange rate Volume Cost Expenses Dividendsreceived
2015
Adjusted EBITDA¹, 2014 - 2015, US$ million
¹ Adjusted EBITDA excludes gains and/or losses on sales of assets and non-recurring expenses and includes dividends received from
non-consolidated affiliates
.
In 2015, the loss in prices was partially offset by the exchange rate,
higher volumes and lower costs and expenses
12
Costs¹
US$ million
Expenses1,2
US$ million
¹ Net of depreciation and amortization, includes exchange rate and volume.
² Includes SG&A, R&D, Pre-operating and stoppage and Other expenses.
³ Favorably impacted by US$ 244 million due to the one-off effect of the goldstream transaction in 1Q13. 4 Favorably impacted by the following one-off effects: US$ 230 million of the goldstream transaction in 1Q15 and US$ 331 million of
the revision of the asset retirement obligations in 4Q15.
Costs and expenses¹ substantially decreased, despite the increase
in volumes
-33.1%
6.857
4.521
3.547
1.861
2012 2013 2014 2015
-72.8%
22.661
20.520 21.207
16.984
2012 2013 2014 2015
3
4
13
Despite the increased pressure from prices and the current stage
in our investment cycle, debt remained relatively stable
24.685 24.213 25.234
4Q14 3Q15 4Q15
Gross Debt
US$ million
Net Debt
Cash position in
December 31, 2015
3,619
28.807 28.675 28.853
4Q14 3Q15 4Q15
14
Paving the way for the
future
15
We are prepared to face the challenges caused by the uncertainty in
demand and the volatility in commodities prices
2016 and 2017 will be years of optimization of our business, with
the continuous structured reduction of cost and expenses
Free cash flow is approaching equilibrium in 2016, therefore, Vale’s
main priority becomes the strengthening of its balance sheet, with
reduction in levels of indebtedness
1
2
16
US$/t
57,6
41,6
37,1
32,9 31,1
23,0
27-28
14-19
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Currentmarginal cost
2016E S11D
Iron ore will reduce even more, and in a structured way, so will its
cost landed in China¹
-46%
¹ Considers: [Cash cost + Royalties + freight + distribution + expenses(SG&A + R&D + pre-operating and stoppage expenses) + moisture,
adjusted by quality and pellets premiums] / [iron ore sales volume (ex ROM and ex TPP)]
² Considers C1 cost average and spot freight, assuming that the transport of additional production tons will be contracted in spot
³ Exchange rate BRL 3,80 / USD 4 Considers freight between the current spot level (US$ 6.0/t) and the forecasted average of Vale’s freight portfolio for 2018 (US$ 10.6/t)
1
2
2
3,4 3
17
11,0
11,9
2,9
2,3 4,7
23,4 1,0 22,4
C1 Cash Cost Freight anddistribution
Expenses andRoyalties
Moisture Quality Total beforepellets'
adjustment
Pellets'adjustment
Total
The leverage in operations will enable a further reduction of the
breakeven of our ore landed in China¹
1.1 2.7 1.0 3.6 8.8 0.2
2
2
¹ Considers: [Cash cost + Royalties + freight + distribution + expenses(SG&A + R&D + pre-operating and stoppage expenses) + moisture, adjusted by quality
and pellets premiums] / [iron ore sales volume (ex ROM and ex TPP)]; excludes maintaining capex of US$3,3/t in 2018 ² Exchange rate of BRL/USD 3,80 in 2018
³ Considers average freight of US$ 10.6/t (bunker oil of US$ 180/t and freight spot Brazil-China US$ 6,0/t) and distribution cost of US$ 1.3/t 4 Includes quality premium, discounts and commercial conditions
US$/t, 2018
8.6 0.2
Delta for 4Q15
3
4
1
2
18
8.1 6.5
11.6
7.9
0.6 0.2
Original Budget Total 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Logistics
Mine and Plant
1.6
2.6
9.4 14.4
19.7
The S11D project will complete most of its capital expenditure within
the next 2 years
US$ billion¹
Mine, Plant and Logistics
¹ Includes project expenses, which are not capitalized and are comprised of US$ 289 million accumulated until 2015, US$ 84 million
in 2016, US$ 52 million in 2017, US$ 15 million in 2018 and US$ 5 million in 2019.
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Significant advances in the S11D mine, plant and railway
Assembly area between mine and conveyor
belts Status February 2016
• Combined physical progress of 71%
− 83% of physical progress at the mine
site
− 62% of physical progress at logistic
sites
− 83% of physical progress at the railway
spur
• The existing railway capacity increased to
approximately 150 Mtpy with the
duplication of 59km upon completion of 8
segments in 2015
Railway expansion
20
Conclude the ramp up of Salobo
Base Metals business portfolio will be optimized
• Conclusion of Salobo’s ramp up
• Significant reduction in New
Caledonia’s losses
• Optimization of operational flows
and progression of Long
Harbour’s ramp-up, with
consequent reduction of cost
and expenses in North Atlantic
1
2
21
The conclusion of Salobo’s ramp-up will significantly contribute to
increase the segment’s operational cash flow
Production
Kt
EBITDA
US$ million
259
371
624
2014 2015 2016E
98
155
194
2014 2015 2016E
¹ Considers LME copper price of US$ 5.000/t and Exchange rate of BRL 3,80 / USD
1
1
2
22
The conclusion of our initiatives will enable consistent EBITDA
generation
EBITDA 2016, US$ billion
Copper price (US$/t)
4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000
Nic
ke
l p
ric
e (
US
$/t
)
8,000 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3
8,500 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5
9,000 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
9,500 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.8
10,000 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9
10,500 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1
• Conclusion of Salobo’s
ramp-up
• Progression of Long
Harbour’s ramp-up
• Significant reduction in
New Caledonia’s losses
• Optimization of
operational flows in North
Atlantic, with consequent
reduction of cost and
expenses
1
2
23
Fertilizers will increase even more its competitive with the delivery
of the project of phosphate rock replacement in Brazil 1
2
• Start up planned for 2017
• Phosphate rock cost in Araxá will
reduce from US$113/t in 2015 to
US$76/t¹
• Increase in rock capacity will allow an
increase in phosphates’² production of
approximately 700 ktpy
• Increase of US$ 80-90million in EBITDA
per year
P Patrocinio project
¹ Exchange rate of BRL 3.50/USD. Weighted average (2017-2031)
² SSP, TSP, MAP and DCP
24
The ramp up of the Nacala Logistics Corridor will bring
competitiveness for the Coal business
Mozambique’s production volume
Mt
5
10
15
16
18
18
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
Mozambique COGS1,2
US$/t
157
97
78
61
57
60
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
¹ Net of depreciation
² Only operating cost, without considering possible fees of the Nacala Logistics Corridor after the conclusion of the transaction
with Mitsui
1
2
25
Free cash flow is approaching equilibrium in 2016
• The discipline in capital allocation will enable a further CAPEX
reduction of about US$ 3 billion from 2015 to 2016
• The divestment of non core assets of US$ 4-5.5 billion will help
to balance the cash flow and to initiate the Company’s leverage
reduction
• The execution of the ongoing initiatives will allow solid cash
generation at any price scenario
1
2
26
Capex, US$ billion
11,7 11,6
9,6
7,9
5,5
4,6 4,6
4,6
4,1
2,9
16,3 16,2
14,2
12,0
8,4
5,5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E¹
Sustaining
Growth Projects
Vale has been increasing its discipline in capital allocation with
focus on world-class assets
¹ Considers exchange rate of BRL/USD 3.80
27
Potential divestments will help to balance the cash flow and will
enable the strengthening of the balance sheet, independently of
prices
Evaluation of transactions involving
core assets, aiming to reduce net debt
by US$ 10 billion
Continuity of non core assets sales, with the
aim to simplify the portfolio, amounting to
US$ 4 – 5.5 billion
• Coal JV
• 2nd tranche preferred shares
• Precious metals streaming
• 7 VLOCs
• MRN
• Energy assets
• Analysis of merits and demerits of the
assets’ portfolio that we want for the long
term
• Assessment of the transaction value in
the current market
• Estimate of the potential debt reduction
that would accompany each of these
transactions
1
2
2016
2016 - 2017
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US$ billion, FCF accumulated 2016-2020E (before divestments)
1 FCF before divestments, dividends and debt amortization; assuming for all scenarios nickel price US$ 8,500/t, copper price US$
4.500/t, bunker oil US$ 150/t, exchange rate of BRL/US$ 3,80 and including the contingency plan for 2016.
2016 Accumulated2016-2020
(2,5) – (2,0)
4,3 – 5,3
2016 Accumulated2016-2020
(1,2) – (0,7)
12,2 – 13,2
2016 Accumulated2016-2020
0,1 – 0,6
19,0 – 20,0
Marginal distribution of
dividends and/or debt
reduction
Moderate distribution of
dividends and debt decreasing
consistently
High distribution of dividends
and debt decreasing quickly
Iron ore price US$40/t Iron ore price US$45/t Iron ore price US$50/t
Free cash flow¹ generation will be positive in the next years, even in adverse price scenarios
1
2
29