bradley nickell director of transmission planning

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Bradley NickellDirector of Transmission Planning

Planning for Renewables

Iowa State University WESEP-REUJune 12, 2012

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About WECC

Non-Planning Functions

• Compliance Monitoring and Enforcement

• Standards Development• Reliability Coordination• Market-Operations

interface• Operator training• WREGIS

Planning Functions

• Loads and Resources Assessments

• Reliability studies• Transmission Expansion

Planning

WECC’s mission is to promote and foster a reliable and efficient bulk electric system

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• Planning cooperation among Western Interconnection entitiesoCreate economic planning data setso Perform interconnection-wide transmission

expansion studieso Process consistent with applicable FERC Order

890 planning principles

• Governed by the WECC Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC)

Regional Transmission Expansion PlanningHistory of Interconnection-wide planning in the West

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• What are we planning for?

• Resource Planning

• Modeling Renewable Resources

• Telling the story

Agenda

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What are we planning for?

• Identification of future infrastructure needs to 1. Serve the expected load reliably

2. Meet public policy directives

3. Minimize cost and environmental impact

• Transmission planning – identify future transmission capacity needs given a future set of loads and resources– It’s all about resource planning

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• 10-year – understanding impacts of near-term decisions (bottoms-up)

• 20-year – understanding drivers of potential energy futures (top-down)

• The Plans tell the story of how they are connected

2013 10- and 20-year Transmission PlansConnecting the Dots

2012

2022

2032

How might the Western Interconnection need to change to accommodate changes in the supply and demand for electric energy?

Understanding Impacts of decisions, not making determinations on what should

be done

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Transmission Expansion Planning Process

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2022 TEPPC Common Case – Resource Assumptions

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1. Gather load assumptions

2. Identify state renewable energy requirements

3. Specify the renewable portfolio

4. Update conventional resources

5. Identify conventional resource retirements

6. Check the load and resource balance

Developing Resource Assumptions

RPS Policies

Renewable portfolio standard

Renewable portfolio goal

www.dsireusa.org / May 2012

Solar water heating eligible *† Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables

Includes non-renewable alternative resources

WA: 15% x 2020*

CA: 33% x 2020

NV: 25% x 2025*

AZ: 15% x 2025

NM: 20% x 2020 (IOUs) 10% x 2020 (co-ops)

HI: 40% x 2030

Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement

TX: 5,880 MW x 2015

UT: 20% by 2025*

CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops & large

munis)*

MT: 15% x 2015

ND: 10% x 2015

SD: 10% x 2015

IA: 105 MW

MN: 25% x 2025(Xcel: 30% x 2020)

MO: 15% x 2021

WI: Varies by utility;

~10% x 2015 statewide

MI: 10% & 1,100 MW x 2015*

OH: 25% x 2025†

ME: 30% x 2000New RE: 10% x 2017

NH: 23.8% x 2025

MA: 22.1% x 2020 New RE: 15% x 2020

(+1% annually thereafter)

RI: 16% x 2020

CT: 27% x 2020NY: 29% x 2015

NJ: 20.38% RE x 2021+ 5,316 GWh solar x

2026

PA: ~18% x 2021†

MD: 20% x 2022

DE: 25% x 2026*

DC: 20% x 2020

NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs)10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis)

VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales x

2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017

KS: 20% x 2020

OR: 25% x 2025 (large utilities)*

5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities)

IL: 25% x 2025

29 states + DC and PR have an RPS

(8 states have goals)

29 states + DC and PR have an RPS

(8 states have goals)

OK: 15% x 2015

PR: 20% x 2035

WV: 25% x 2025*†VA: 15% x 2025*

DC

IN: 10% x 2025†

http://www.dsireusa.org/

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Overarching RPS Assumptions

• RPS percentages with a discrete jump (e.g., 15% to 20%) are pro rated using a linear path– Utah sets a 2025 target without interim requirements

o Linear path sets target at 16% in 2022

• Set-asides are met– Distributed generation (AZ: 30% of RPS, CO: 3% of

retail sales, NM: 3% of RPS)– Solar (NV: 1.32% of retail sales, NM: 4% of sales)

• Credits are applied to applicable resources– CO grants 125% credit to instate generation– Multipliers (CO: community based projects, NV: solar

PV, WA: distributed generation)12

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WECC 2022 Common Case Portfolio

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Production Cost Modeling

• WECC’s studies are run using Promod, which is a production costing model (PCM) for projecting future system operating costs

• WECC inputs into the PCM a transmission network, using a WECC power flow base case, and a single resource scenario

• the PCM uses these model inputs to perform a security constrained economic dispatch of the WECC-wide system for each of 8,760 hours in the year

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• PCM uses the following inputs to perform a security constrained economic dispatch of the WECC-wide system for each hour of the year:o Generator Unit Characteristics: unit types, heat rates,

fuel types, forced outage rates, minimum downtimes, etc.

o Load Characteristics: chronological load shapes, etc.o Transmission Network Characteristics: network

topology, branch/transformer impedances, flow limits, etc.

o System Operating Requirements: operating reserve requirements, etc.

Production Cost Modeling

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PCM Modeling Inputs forVariable (Wind and Solar) Generation

• Wind/solar are fixed shape (non-dispatchable) resources– NREL meso-scale data– Hourly generation profiles have been defined for all

wind/solar plants in our dataset

• Result: Wind and solar generation does not vary unless there is local transmission congestion preventing the resources from being used by the system

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• Synchronized hourly profiles (wind & solar)

• Planned VG additions based on extensive data research and stakeholder input

• Energy is must-take

Wind and Solar Profile Examples

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Reference Case Wind Generation

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Meg

awatt

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Hour

Average Hourly Wind by Month - PC1

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Annual

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Sample Load/Generation Profile – AZNMNV Sub-region

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10,000

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25,000

30,000

35,000

7/10/2020 7/11/2020 7/12/2020 7/13/2020 7/14/2020 7/15/2020 7/16/2020 7/17/2020 7/18/2020 7/19/2020

Combustion Turbine

Steam - Other

Combined Cycle

Other

Solar

Wind

Small Hydro RPS

Geothermal

Biomass RPS

Hydro+PS

Steam - Coal

Nuclear

Demand

Dump

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Sample Load/Generation Profile – NWPP Sub-region

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35,000

7/10/2020 7/11/2020 7/12/2020 7/13/2020 7/14/2020 7/15/2020 7/16/2020 7/17/2020 7/18/2020 7/19/2020

Combustion Turbine

Steam - Other

Combined Cycle

Other

Solar

Wind

Small Hydro RPS

Geothermal

Biomass RPS

Hydro+PS

Steam - Coal

Nuclear

Demand

Dump

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10-Year Regional Transmission Plan

www.wecc.biz/10yrPlan

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What’s in a PlanTypes of Recommendations?

Expected Future – “The road we’re on”• Analysis of assumptions• Is there sufficient transmission capacity?• Unanswered questionsIdentification of Alternatives• Alternative procurement options to meet policy

directives at less costOther Insights• Identification of follow-up studies• Suggestions for addressing unanswered questions• Public policy

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Questions

Bradley NickellDirector of Transmission PlanningWestern Electricity Coordinating Council155 North 400 WestSalt Lake City, Utah [email protected]

All information on the WECC 10-Year Regional Transmission Plan may be found at http://www.wecc.biz/10yrPlan.

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• E3 and NREL developed calculation methodology Reserve based on 10 minute wind and solar profiles

• Provides an uncertainty factor extended to hourly analysis

• E3 calculated the hourly flexibility reserves for the TEPPC wind and solar profiles

Flexibility Reserves

Confidential | ©2012 Ventyx, an ABB company | 25

“Additional reserves required to manage the variability and uncertainty associated with variable generation resources like wind and solar”

(NREL)

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Flexibility Reserve Flow Diagram


Historical load, wind and solar data

Statistical analysis

Equations that predict next period variability based on current values

of load, wind and solar

Hourly analysis data for study or real-time

(Load, Wind and Solar)

Hourly reserve time series synchronized to load, wind and

solar

Production Cost Modeling PROMOD, GridView, etc.

Production modeling results analysis

Definition of flex reserve sharing areas (e.g. EIM)

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Composite Hourly Reserve Requirement


1-dayRe

serv

e r

eq

uire

me

nt

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Test Results for August 25 - 26


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August 25-26 California South Sub-regionTotal Gen Reserve Contribution Hourly Reserve Requirement

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Example of Hourly Reserve Requirement


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California South - August 25-26 (MW){Load is plotted on secondary axis}

4% of Daily Peak Flex Reserve Solar+Wind Hourly Res Load (Axis 2)

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The LTPT is a GIS-based capital expansion planning tool for use in doing long-term transmission planning studies

• Optimizes new generation and transmission build out• Incorporates reliability, policy, environmental, and cost

considerationsCurrent Status• Integrated testing continues• Last minute data submittals being incorporated into the

model• Will begin production studies in June

Long-term Planning Tool

Information from the LTPT complements results provided by the production cost model

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LTPT Process Flow

Criteria Data

Assertions

Environmental Considerations

Policy Consideration

Social Considerations

Cultural Considerations

Federal & State Mandates

Load

Generation

Transmission

Capital Costs

Geospatial

Stakeholder Collaboration

Optimize Generation

Operating Characteristics

Energy Constraints

Capacity Constraints

Tiered Optimization

Optimize Transmission

Alternative Candidates

Alternative Candidates

GridConstraints

Capital Costs

Capital Costs

ExpansionPlan

AnalyticsIdentify High

Value Projects

Measure Impacts

Compare Energy Futures

Screen Alternatives

Inform Other Planning

Inform Decision Makers

Public policy along with reliability, technology, and environmental considerations drive the LTPT

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LTPT Renewable Resource HubsLeveraging the WREZ Hubs

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Water Availability and UsageWater Availability Example

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• Develop and incorporate information on land, wildlife, cultural, historical, archaeological, and water resources into the transmission planning process

Environmental DataBringing land-use into planning processes

Data being integrated into the LTPT

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Detailed Examination of Expansion Alternatives - “Bending the Lines”

Optimal Cross-Country CorridorOptimal Corridor Using ROW and Road Alignments

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RTEP Long-term Planning Scenarios

The Long-term Planning Tool will be used to analyze the long-term scenarios

Eco

no

my

Technology

bradley nickell director of transmission planning

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