brazil: past and present - york region (talyr) mcgillivary - 17 oct... · brazil: past and present...
TRANSCRIPT
Brazil: Past and Present Commodities and Inequalities
Prof. Gillian McGillivray, Glendon College History Department, York University (with credit to Simone Bohn, Political Science, York University, for slides 14-23)
Railroads,
Brazil and the United States
2012 Bloomberg report on “Rising Inequality Since 1990”
Salvador, Bahia
Recife, Pernambuco (Northeast)
Ouro Preto,
Minas Gerais (Southeast)
Rio de Janeiro (Southeast)
Capital from 1763-1960
Iguazu Falls (South)
Paraguayan War 1865-70
Rio Grande do Sul (South)
Sao Paulo(Southeast)
Manaus, Amazonas (North)
Brasilia, 1960-present (Centre West)
Brazilian Independence
• 1807: Portuguese Crown moves to Brazil
• 1822: Dom Pedro declares Independence
• 1822-1889: Constitutional monarchy
• 1804 Haiti, 1807-1833 British Empire
• “Para Inglês Ver”
• 1850 Slave Trade Ended
• 1871: Rio Branco Law (“free womb”)
• 1888: “Golden Law”
• 1889: First Republic
Abolition of Slavery
Politics and Economy 1889-1964
• First Republic: « Coffee & Milk (Cattle) »
• 1930-45, 1951-54: Getúlio Vargas
i) Petrobras ii) Minimum Wage ; inflation « I give you my death… I leave life to enter history »
Juscelino Kubitschek 1956-1961 « Fifty years in Five »BrasíliaIndustrializationAutomobiles - roads
Dictatorship & “Development” 1964-1989Brazil - External debt in US dollars (1970-1984)
0
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
120,000,000,000
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
1980s – Lost DecadeGDP growth per region (1930s-1990s)
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
Latin America Africa Asia
Election 1989 1994 1998 2002
# of candidates 21 8 12 6
Winner (% of votes)
PRN* (30.50)
PSDB (54.27)
PSDB (53.06)
PT* (46.44)
Second place (% of votes)
PT (17.20)
PT (27.04)
PT (31.71)
PSDB (23.20)
Party’s vote in the House
4.9% 12.1% 19.3% 17.7%
* First round.
** The P.M.D.B. did not present a candidate of its own in 1998 and in 2002. The PDS/PPR/PPB only ran independently for the presidency in
1989.
Source: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral.
Presidential power in Congress
Number of parties with seats in Congress (after 2014):
• 28 in the House• 10 in the Senate
Wave of left-leaning governments
Country Year Leader
Venezuela 1998 Hugo Chávez
Brazil 2002 Lula da Silva
Uruguay 2004 Tabaré Vázquez
Bolivia 2005 Evo Morales
Nicaragua 2006 Daniel Ortega
Ecuador 2006 Rafael Correa
Paraguay 2008 Fernando Lugo
Left Turn in Brazil
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) (2003-2006)
Lula II (2007-2010)
• 2002: context of economic crisis • Tight monetary policy • “Zero Hunger”• South-South• diversification
Zero Hunger: Innovative Social
Policies
• Family Grant Program (Bolsa Familia)
• Donations of Emergency Food Baskets
• Expansion of the School Meal Program
• Support for family farming: technical, and “captive” markets
• Intensification of agrarian reform
• Food banks
• Subsidized restaurants
~ 14 million families
poor and very poor
Variable benefits: depend on
family size
Gender component
Conditions:
- Vaccination- School attendance- Pre- and post-natal care
Cost for federal government:
Less than 0.5% of GDP (2012)
Social policy in constant evolution
Commodity Exports
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.01
96
4
19
65
19
66
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Brazilian Exports - 1964-2014(% of total exported)
Basic Semi-Manufactured Manufactured
Source: SECEX/MDIC
China factor
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
USA European Union South America China
Destination of Brazil's exports (in %) - 1997-2014
Political CrisesMensalão Scandal (June 6, 2005)
Car Wash Scandal (March 15, 2014)
Impeachment of Dilma Roussef (August 31, 2016)
2010, 2016 – PSDB opponentsPSDB big winners in Sept. 2016 Municipal elections