brazilian american chamber of commerce brazil summit april 18th, 2011

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azilian American Chamber of Commerce azil Summit ril 18th, 2011 CREATING A SECURE, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE

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CREATING A SECURE, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE. Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011. DISCLAIMER. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: DISCLAIMER - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce

Brazil Summit

April 18th, 2011

CREATING A SECURE, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

FUTURE

Page 2: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

DISCLAIMER

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:

DISCLAIMER

The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for 2010 on are estimates or targets.

All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation.

NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS

We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.

Page 3: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

Nonrenewable55%

Renewable45%

Hydropower13%

Biofuels5%

Biomass27%

Other renewables

0%

Nonrenewable 87%

Biofuels0,4%

Hydropower2%

Other renewables

1%

Renewable13%

Biomass10%

20082008

PRIMARY DEMAND FOR ENERGY – BREAKDOWN BY RENEWABLE FUEL

12.271 (MM TOEs)

245 (MM TOEs)Brazil

World

Source: International Energy Agency for 2008 and Petrobras projections - sustainable development scenario for 2030.

20302030

20082008 20302030

Nonrenewable84%

Renewable16%

Hydropower3%

Biofuels1%

Other renewables

3%

Biomass10%

Hydropower13%

Biofuels10%

Biomass21%

Nonrenewable54%

Renewable46%

Other renewables2%

16.725 (MM TOEs)

572 (MM TOEs)

3

Page 4: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

Nuclear

33%33%

21%21%

27%27%

6%6%

2007 2030

29% 29%

21% 21%

26% 26%

8%8%

4

PRIMARY DEMAND FOR ENERGY – BREAKDOWN BY NONRENEWABLE FUEL

Brazil

World

Average Annual Growth

Average Annual Growth

+2,7% a.a.

20082008 20302030

Coal

Gas

Oil +0,8% a.a.

+1,4% a.a.

+1,3% a.a.

39%39%

9%9%

6%6%2%2% 3%3%

31% 31%

11% 11%

9% 9%Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

20082008 20302030

+7,1% a.a.

+2,9% a.a.

+5,1% a.a.

+6,0% a.a.

Average Annual Growth

Average Annual Growth

Source: International Energy Agency for 2008 and Petrobras projections - sustainable development scenario for 2030.

Page 5: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

MAIN TRANSPORTATION SECTOR ENERGY CONSUMPTION

* Considers gasoline plus anhydrous ethanol

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Diesel Biodiesel Gasoline C Hydrous Ethanol Jet Fuel

Mill

ion

Bep

Mill

ion

Bep

5

Accelerating Growth of Brazilian Fuel Consumptionl

Accelerating Growth of Brazilian Fuel Consumptionl

• From 2000 to 2009, gasoline consumption increased 12%, while ethanol 258%; • Diesel consumption up 40%, with bio-diesel equal to 5% of diesel consumption;• Jet fuel consumption has increased 30% in just the last five years

• From 2000 to 2009, gasoline consumption increased 12%, while ethanol 258%; • Diesel consumption up 40%, with bio-diesel equal to 5% of diesel consumption;• Jet fuel consumption has increased 30% in just the last five years

**

Source: ANPSource: ANP

+8%

+39%

Page 6: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

Evolution of Demand for Vehicles Related to Fuel Used Type

INCREASE THE DEMAND FOR “FLEX FUEL” VEHICLES

6

Thousand unitsThousand units

Gasoline NGV Electric Vehicle

Source: MME – Brazlian Energy Balance 2010

•Flexfuel non-existent in 2005, grew to half the vehicle fleet in seven years;

•Total vehicles to more than triple by 2030

•Flexfuel non-existent in 2005, grew to half the vehicle fleet in seven years;

•Total vehicles to more than triple by 2030

Page 7: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

Source: Stanford; PIW

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Th

ou

sa

nd

Bp

d

Petrobras Oil Production (Brazil)

Total Brazilian Oil and Ethanol Consumption

Total Brazilian Oil Consumption

CONSUMPTION & PRODUCTION

(1)(1)

(1) 2006-10: estimated Brazilian oil consumption based on Petrobras sales of oil products

(2) Anhydrous and hydrous ethanol. Considering: 1m3 = 6,2898 bbl. Source: EPE – Mines and Energy Ministry

(1) 2006-10: estimated Brazilian oil consumption based on Petrobras sales of oil products

(2) Anhydrous and hydrous ethanol. Considering: 1m3 = 6,2898 bbl. Source: EPE – Mines and Energy Ministry

7

98,1%

2010Production/Consumption of Oil

(2)(2)

•Without ethanol sales substituting gasoline consumption, Brazil would still be a net importer of oil products•Without ethanol sales substituting gasoline consumption, Brazil would still be a net importer of oil products

Page 8: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

HISTORICAL OIL PRODUCTION

8

•Brazil has became self sufficient in oil through its deepwater offshore discoveries;

•No growth in demand for 20 years, following oil shocks and low growth;

•Accelerating demand with growing economy and rising incomes

•Brazil has became self sufficient in oil through its deepwater offshore discoveries;

•No growth in demand for 20 years, following oil shocks and low growth;

•Accelerating demand with growing economy and rising incomes

Page 9: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

-

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

EVOLUTION OF NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN BRAZIL SINCE 2000

Source: AbegásSource: Abegás

Natural Gas Consumption by SectorNatural Gas Consumption by SectorThousand m3/dayThousand m3/day

INDUSTRYINDUSTRY

ELECTRICITY GENERATION ELECTRICITY GENERATION

RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL

OTHERS*OTHERS*

TRANSPORTATION (NGV)TRANSPORTATION (NGV)

* Includes commercial, cogeneration and compressed natural gas* Includes commercial, cogeneration and compressed natural gas

• Strong growth of the natural gas consumption in Brazil since 2000 (+208%); • Hydro-electric creates volatility in demand, but gas fired thermo electric should

increase over time• Vehicular natural gas now equivalent to 30 thousand BPD, or 10% of gasoline sales

• Strong growth of the natural gas consumption in Brazil since 2000 (+208%); • Hydro-electric creates volatility in demand, but gas fired thermo electric should

increase over time• Vehicular natural gas now equivalent to 30 thousand BPD, or 10% of gasoline sales

9%9%

25%25%

2%2%

11%11%

53%53%

9

Page 10: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

53%

33%

2%1%2%8%

1%

E&P

RTM

G&P

Petrochemicals

Petrobras’ Corporate Strategy to 2020

Brazil95%

International5%

US$ 224.1 billion

Total Capital Investment Plan2010-2014

Focus in oil, oil products, petrochemicals, gas &

energy, biofuels, refining and distribution with an

integrated and sustainable business model

Oil & gas production growth in a sustainable

manner that will approximately double our

production in the next 10 years

Integrated Growth, Profitability and Sustainability

Be recognized as a benchmark among integrated energy companies

Consolidate leadership in the Brazilian market of

natural gas, electricity generation and gas chemicals

BUSINESS PLAN 2010-14: INCREASED INVESTMENT FOR INTEGRATED OPERATIONS IN BRAZIL

Distribution

Biofuels

Corporate

10

Page 11: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

1.500 1.684 2.0042.980

3.950274

334

623

1.109

252

176

203

144163

35

96101

128

120

22

2002 2005 2010 2014 2020

Oil Production - Brazil Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Gas Production - International

GROWING PRODUCTION FULLY SUPPORTED BY DISCOVERIES

Pre-SaltPre-Salt

Petrobras Total Production (000 b/d)

241241

12,131

Proven Reserves 2002

14,913

Proven Reserves 2005

15,986

Proven Reserves 2010

5,000

Transfer of Rights

29,000-31,000

Total Resource Base

Higher Estimates

9,600

Lower estimates 8,100

• 18th consecutive years of fully replacing the production (229% in 2010)

• R/P ratio 18.4 years (SPE Criteria)

• 18th consecutive years of fully replacing the production (229% in 2010)

• R/P ratio 18.4 years (SPE Criteria)

1,0781,078

1,8091,8092,2172,217

2,5832,583

5,3825,382

3,9073,9074.5% p.y.4.5% p.y. 7.6% CAGR

7.6% CAGR

...... ......

Potential Recoverable (Lula, Cernambi, Iara, Guará and

Whales Park)

Petrobras Total Reserves (bln boe) - SPE Criteria

11

Page 12: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

FROM A DOWNSTREAM COMPANY, PETROBRAS BECAME AN INTEGRATED AND BALANCED COMPANY

Petrobras has a unique in its downstream business since it is almost the sole operator in its fast growing domestic market. Brazilian market has a continental scale in size

2,7943,196

3,950

2,3562,260

2,980

1,9331,791

1,971

1,036

1,393

181

2009 2014E 2020E

kbpd

110%

132%

ThroughputProduction Oil Product Demand

124%

1980

13%

Production as a % of refining

• Oil Production and the Brazilian market demand currently exceed refining capacity• By 2014, exports are projected to reach nearly 1 million bpd, even as refining capacity is expanded to process

Brazilian production to meet demand

• Oil Production and the Brazilian market demand currently exceed refining capacity• By 2014, exports are projected to reach nearly 1 million bpd, even as refining capacity is expanded to process

Brazilian production to meet demand

12

Page 13: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011

Ethanol• Increase of Petrobras participation in Brazil's

ethanol industry and bioenergy; investments focus on developing a new generation of biofuels and cogeneration power:

• Acquisition of 45.7% of Guarani, the 4th largest processor of sugar cane in the country, and agreement to reach a stake of up to 49%;

• Acquisition of 40.4% of Usina Total; • Strategic partnership with Grupo São Martinho,

creating a new company, called Nova Fronteira (49% BR).

Ethanol• Increase of Petrobras participation in Brazil's

ethanol industry and bioenergy; investments focus on developing a new generation of biofuels and cogeneration power:

• Acquisition of 45.7% of Guarani, the 4th largest processor of sugar cane in the country, and agreement to reach a stake of up to 49%;

• Acquisition of 40.4% of Usina Total; • Strategic partnership with Grupo São Martinho,

creating a new company, called Nova Fronteira (49% BR).

StrategyAct globally, on biofuels production, with relevant participation in biodiesel and ethanol bussiness

BIO DIESEL

ETHANOL

INVESTMENTS 2010-2014: US$ 3.5 Billion

2.0

0.4

0.4

0.7

Ethanol Biodiesel R&D Logistics

Thou

s. m

³/ye

ar

Ethanol Exports

1,055

449

2010 2014

+135%

2.600

886

2010 2014

+193%

747

507

2010 2014

+47%

Ethanol ProductionProduction Capacity of

Biodiesel in Brazil

BIOFUEL TARGETS AND INVESTMENTS 2010-2014:CONTINUED EXPANSION AND INTEGRATION WITH OIL PRODUCTS

1313

Page 14: Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011