brazilian american chamber of commerce brazil summit april 18th, 2011
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CREATING A SECURE, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE. Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Brazil Summit April 18th, 2011. DISCLAIMER. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: DISCLAIMER - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce
Brazil Summit
April 18th, 2011
CREATING A SECURE, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
FUTURE
DISCLAIMER
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for 2010 on are estimates or targets.
All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.
Nonrenewable55%
Renewable45%
Hydropower13%
Biofuels5%
Biomass27%
Other renewables
0%
Nonrenewable 87%
Biofuels0,4%
Hydropower2%
Other renewables
1%
Renewable13%
Biomass10%
20082008
PRIMARY DEMAND FOR ENERGY – BREAKDOWN BY RENEWABLE FUEL
12.271 (MM TOEs)
245 (MM TOEs)Brazil
World
Source: International Energy Agency for 2008 and Petrobras projections - sustainable development scenario for 2030.
20302030
20082008 20302030
Nonrenewable84%
Renewable16%
Hydropower3%
Biofuels1%
Other renewables
3%
Biomass10%
Hydropower13%
Biofuels10%
Biomass21%
Nonrenewable54%
Renewable46%
Other renewables2%
16.725 (MM TOEs)
572 (MM TOEs)
3
Nuclear
33%33%
21%21%
27%27%
6%6%
2007 2030
29% 29%
21% 21%
26% 26%
8%8%
4
PRIMARY DEMAND FOR ENERGY – BREAKDOWN BY NONRENEWABLE FUEL
Brazil
World
Average Annual Growth
Average Annual Growth
+2,7% a.a.
20082008 20302030
Coal
Gas
Oil +0,8% a.a.
+1,4% a.a.
+1,3% a.a.
39%39%
9%9%
6%6%2%2% 3%3%
31% 31%
11% 11%
9% 9%Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
20082008 20302030
+7,1% a.a.
+2,9% a.a.
+5,1% a.a.
+6,0% a.a.
Average Annual Growth
Average Annual Growth
Source: International Energy Agency for 2008 and Petrobras projections - sustainable development scenario for 2030.
MAIN TRANSPORTATION SECTOR ENERGY CONSUMPTION
* Considers gasoline plus anhydrous ethanol
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Diesel Biodiesel Gasoline C Hydrous Ethanol Jet Fuel
Mill
ion
Bep
Mill
ion
Bep
5
Accelerating Growth of Brazilian Fuel Consumptionl
Accelerating Growth of Brazilian Fuel Consumptionl
• From 2000 to 2009, gasoline consumption increased 12%, while ethanol 258%; • Diesel consumption up 40%, with bio-diesel equal to 5% of diesel consumption;• Jet fuel consumption has increased 30% in just the last five years
• From 2000 to 2009, gasoline consumption increased 12%, while ethanol 258%; • Diesel consumption up 40%, with bio-diesel equal to 5% of diesel consumption;• Jet fuel consumption has increased 30% in just the last five years
**
Source: ANPSource: ANP
+8%
+39%
Evolution of Demand for Vehicles Related to Fuel Used Type
INCREASE THE DEMAND FOR “FLEX FUEL” VEHICLES
6
Thousand unitsThousand units
Gasoline NGV Electric Vehicle
Source: MME – Brazlian Energy Balance 2010
•Flexfuel non-existent in 2005, grew to half the vehicle fleet in seven years;
•Total vehicles to more than triple by 2030
•Flexfuel non-existent in 2005, grew to half the vehicle fleet in seven years;
•Total vehicles to more than triple by 2030
Source: Stanford; PIW
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Th
ou
sa
nd
Bp
d
Petrobras Oil Production (Brazil)
Total Brazilian Oil and Ethanol Consumption
Total Brazilian Oil Consumption
CONSUMPTION & PRODUCTION
(1)(1)
(1) 2006-10: estimated Brazilian oil consumption based on Petrobras sales of oil products
(2) Anhydrous and hydrous ethanol. Considering: 1m3 = 6,2898 bbl. Source: EPE – Mines and Energy Ministry
(1) 2006-10: estimated Brazilian oil consumption based on Petrobras sales of oil products
(2) Anhydrous and hydrous ethanol. Considering: 1m3 = 6,2898 bbl. Source: EPE – Mines and Energy Ministry
7
98,1%
2010Production/Consumption of Oil
(2)(2)
•Without ethanol sales substituting gasoline consumption, Brazil would still be a net importer of oil products•Without ethanol sales substituting gasoline consumption, Brazil would still be a net importer of oil products
HISTORICAL OIL PRODUCTION
8
•Brazil has became self sufficient in oil through its deepwater offshore discoveries;
•No growth in demand for 20 years, following oil shocks and low growth;
•Accelerating demand with growing economy and rising incomes
•Brazil has became self sufficient in oil through its deepwater offshore discoveries;
•No growth in demand for 20 years, following oil shocks and low growth;
•Accelerating demand with growing economy and rising incomes
-
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EVOLUTION OF NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN BRAZIL SINCE 2000
Source: AbegásSource: Abegás
Natural Gas Consumption by SectorNatural Gas Consumption by SectorThousand m3/dayThousand m3/day
INDUSTRYINDUSTRY
ELECTRICITY GENERATION ELECTRICITY GENERATION
RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL
OTHERS*OTHERS*
TRANSPORTATION (NGV)TRANSPORTATION (NGV)
* Includes commercial, cogeneration and compressed natural gas* Includes commercial, cogeneration and compressed natural gas
• Strong growth of the natural gas consumption in Brazil since 2000 (+208%); • Hydro-electric creates volatility in demand, but gas fired thermo electric should
increase over time• Vehicular natural gas now equivalent to 30 thousand BPD, or 10% of gasoline sales
• Strong growth of the natural gas consumption in Brazil since 2000 (+208%); • Hydro-electric creates volatility in demand, but gas fired thermo electric should
increase over time• Vehicular natural gas now equivalent to 30 thousand BPD, or 10% of gasoline sales
9%9%
25%25%
2%2%
11%11%
53%53%
9
53%
33%
2%1%2%8%
1%
E&P
RTM
G&P
Petrochemicals
Petrobras’ Corporate Strategy to 2020
Brazil95%
International5%
US$ 224.1 billion
Total Capital Investment Plan2010-2014
Focus in oil, oil products, petrochemicals, gas &
energy, biofuels, refining and distribution with an
integrated and sustainable business model
Oil & gas production growth in a sustainable
manner that will approximately double our
production in the next 10 years
Integrated Growth, Profitability and Sustainability
Be recognized as a benchmark among integrated energy companies
Consolidate leadership in the Brazilian market of
natural gas, electricity generation and gas chemicals
BUSINESS PLAN 2010-14: INCREASED INVESTMENT FOR INTEGRATED OPERATIONS IN BRAZIL
Distribution
Biofuels
Corporate
10
1.500 1.684 2.0042.980
3.950274
334
623
1.109
252
176
203
144163
35
96101
128
120
22
2002 2005 2010 2014 2020
Oil Production - Brazil Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Gas Production - International
GROWING PRODUCTION FULLY SUPPORTED BY DISCOVERIES
Pre-SaltPre-Salt
Petrobras Total Production (000 b/d)
241241
12,131
Proven Reserves 2002
14,913
Proven Reserves 2005
15,986
Proven Reserves 2010
5,000
Transfer of Rights
29,000-31,000
Total Resource Base
Higher Estimates
9,600
Lower estimates 8,100
• 18th consecutive years of fully replacing the production (229% in 2010)
• R/P ratio 18.4 years (SPE Criteria)
• 18th consecutive years of fully replacing the production (229% in 2010)
• R/P ratio 18.4 years (SPE Criteria)
1,0781,078
1,8091,8092,2172,217
2,5832,583
5,3825,382
3,9073,9074.5% p.y.4.5% p.y. 7.6% CAGR
7.6% CAGR
...... ......
Potential Recoverable (Lula, Cernambi, Iara, Guará and
Whales Park)
Petrobras Total Reserves (bln boe) - SPE Criteria
11
FROM A DOWNSTREAM COMPANY, PETROBRAS BECAME AN INTEGRATED AND BALANCED COMPANY
Petrobras has a unique in its downstream business since it is almost the sole operator in its fast growing domestic market. Brazilian market has a continental scale in size
2,7943,196
3,950
2,3562,260
2,980
1,9331,791
1,971
1,036
1,393
181
2009 2014E 2020E
kbpd
110%
132%
ThroughputProduction Oil Product Demand
124%
1980
13%
Production as a % of refining
• Oil Production and the Brazilian market demand currently exceed refining capacity• By 2014, exports are projected to reach nearly 1 million bpd, even as refining capacity is expanded to process
Brazilian production to meet demand
• Oil Production and the Brazilian market demand currently exceed refining capacity• By 2014, exports are projected to reach nearly 1 million bpd, even as refining capacity is expanded to process
Brazilian production to meet demand
12
Ethanol• Increase of Petrobras participation in Brazil's
ethanol industry and bioenergy; investments focus on developing a new generation of biofuels and cogeneration power:
• Acquisition of 45.7% of Guarani, the 4th largest processor of sugar cane in the country, and agreement to reach a stake of up to 49%;
• Acquisition of 40.4% of Usina Total; • Strategic partnership with Grupo São Martinho,
creating a new company, called Nova Fronteira (49% BR).
Ethanol• Increase of Petrobras participation in Brazil's
ethanol industry and bioenergy; investments focus on developing a new generation of biofuels and cogeneration power:
• Acquisition of 45.7% of Guarani, the 4th largest processor of sugar cane in the country, and agreement to reach a stake of up to 49%;
• Acquisition of 40.4% of Usina Total; • Strategic partnership with Grupo São Martinho,
creating a new company, called Nova Fronteira (49% BR).
StrategyAct globally, on biofuels production, with relevant participation in biodiesel and ethanol bussiness
BIO DIESEL
ETHANOL
INVESTMENTS 2010-2014: US$ 3.5 Billion
2.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
Ethanol Biodiesel R&D Logistics
Thou
s. m
³/ye
ar
Ethanol Exports
1,055
449
2010 2014
+135%
2.600
886
2010 2014
+193%
747
507
2010 2014
+47%
Ethanol ProductionProduction Capacity of
Biodiesel in Brazil
BIOFUEL TARGETS AND INVESTMENTS 2010-2014:CONTINUED EXPANSION AND INTEGRATION WITH OIL PRODUCTS
1313