brazil’s challenging 2016 outlook

J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 6

B r a z i l ’s C h a l l e n g i n g O u t l o o k 2 0 1 6 B R A Z I L I N S T I T U T E / W I L S O N C E N T E R

How about Brazil and Dilma 2016 ?

T H E S U R V E Y N U M B E R O N E

P E R I O D :DECEMBER 20TH TO 27TH, 2015

20.006 INTERVIEWS

132 CITIES IN BRAZIL

TELEPHONE SURVEY ( IVR PHONE)

1.15%

T O T A L S A M P L E :

C O V E R A G E :

M E T H O D O L O G Y :

E S T I M A T E D M A R G I N O F E R R O R :

P 1 ) D o y o u b e l i e v e t h a t t h e y e a r 2 0 1 6 w i l l b e b e t t e r , w o r s t o r t h e s a m e f o r B r a z i l a s a c o u n t r y c o m p a re d t o 2 0 1 5 ?

SA MP LE: 20 .006 FROM 132 C IT IE S

Better, 35%

Worst, 40%

Same, 20%

NA 5%

P 2) Ta l k i n g a b o u t t h e B r a z i l i a n e c o n o m y , d o y o u b e l i e v e t h e y e a r 2 0 1 6 w i l l b e b e t t e r , w o r s t o r t h e s a m e c o m p a re d t o 2 0 1 5 ?

Better, 10%

Worst 70%

Same, 15%

NA, 5%


P 3 ) Ta l k i n g a b o u t t h e B r a z i l i a n p o l i t i c s , d o y o u b e l i e v e t h e y e a r 2 0 1 6 w i l l b e b e t t e r , w o r s t o r t h e s a m e c o m p a re d t o 2 0 1 5 ? ?

Better, 8%

Worst, 68%

Same, 17%

NA, 7%

SA MPLE: 20 .006 FROM 132 C IT IE S

P 4 ) I n y o u r p e r s o n a l o p i n i o n , P re s i d e n t D i l m a Ro u s s e ff g o v e r n m e n t w i l l b e a b l e t o m a ke y o u r l i f e b e t t e r i n 2 0 1 6 c o m p a re d t o 2 0 1 5 ?

Yes, 16%%

No , 80%

NA, 4%


P 5 ) Re g a r d i n g y o u r p e r s o n a l l i f e , 2 0 1 6 w i l l b e b e t t e r , w o r s t o r t h e s a m e c o m p a re d t o 2 0 1 5 ?

Better, 65%Worst,15%

Same, 18%

NA, 2%


T H E S U R V E Y N U M B E R T W O

P E R I O D :JANUARY 3RD TO JANUARY 6TH, 2016

20.005 INTERVIEWS

128 CITIES IN BRAZIL

TELEPHONE SURVEY ( IVR PHONE)

1.15%

T O T A L S A M P L E :

C O V E R A G E :

M E T H O D O L O G Y :

E S T I M A T E D M A R G I N O F E R R O R :

P1) Based on your personal knowledge, who is the current Brazilian Minister of Finance?

20%

16%

6%

58%

Nelson Barbosa Joaquim Levy Guido Mantega Do not know


P2) (only those who know), do you think that the Brazilian economy will be better off, worst off or the same with Nelson Barbosa as Minister of Finance ?

Better; 10%

Worst; 62%

Same; 28%

SA MP LE: 4 .001 FROM 128 C IT IES

P 3 ) R e g a r d i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g s e n t e n c e :

“ T h e L a v a J a t o i n v e s t i g a t i o n d o e s j e o p a r d i z e t h e B r a z i l a i n e c o n o m i c r e c o v e r y ” . D o y o u a g r e e , d i s a g r e e o r n o r a g r e e n e i t h e r d i s a g r e e ?

Agree; 10%

Disagree; 65%

NA, ND; 22%

NA; 3%

Sample: 20.005 FROM 128 CITIES

P4) Would you support the Lava Jato investigations suspension if that could improve the Brazilian economic

situation ?Yes; 8%

No; 88%

NA; 4%


Yes ; 45%

No; 46%

Do not know; 6% NA; 3%


P5) Do you think that Brazil will need IMF support in 2016 ?

Better; 11%

Worst; 76%

Same; 9%NA; 4%

P6) (only for those who think Brazil will need IMF support). After the IMF support, the Brazil economy will better off,

worst off or the same ?

Sample:9.003 FROM 128 CITIES

“CPMF is the only way to balance the budget.”

Poll with the House and the Senate – Nov 2015

W H A T S A P P P O L L

M E T H O D O L O G Y

POLL BY CELULAR PHONE (BY WHATSAPP)

S A M P L E

P E R I O D :

188 HOUSE MEMBERS AND 25 REPUBLICAN SENATORS

NOVEMBER 12TH AND 24TH 2015

Do you be l ieve tha t the House/Senate w i l l approve the ( re ) -c reat ion o f the CPMF in 2016 ?

SAMPLE:188 A THE HOUSE AND 25 AT THE SENATE

House Senate Total

27% 25% 26%

73% 75% 74%

Yes No

D o y o u b e l i e v e t h a t t h e H o u s e / S e n a t e w i l l v o t e a n d a p p r o v e t h e m i n i m u m r e t i r e m e n t a g e i n 2 0 1 6 ?

House Senators Total

12%20%

14%

88%80%

86%

Yes No


Do y o u b e l i e v e t h a t t h e H o u s e / Se n a t e w i l l v o t e a n d a p p ro v e t h e m i n i m u m w a ge de - i n d ex a t i o n i n 20 16 ?

House Senate Total

5%10% 6%

95%90% 94%

Yes No


D o y o u be l i e v e t h a t t h e H o u s e / Se n a t e w i l l v o t e a n d a pp ro v e a m o re fl ex i b l e L a bo r L a w s y s t e m i n 20 16 ?

House Senate Total

45%40%

47%55%

60%53%

Yes No


Do you believe that President Dilma Rousseff wil l finish her term in office?

House Senate Total

55%60% 57%

45%40% 43%

Yes No


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brazil’s challenging 2016 outlook

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