breaking through the bottleneck

Breaking Through the BottleneckTransportation to Make Stewart a Viable New York Airport

GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITYDR. LANCE SHERRY, FACULTY SPONSOR

Amar Zabarah

Brittany Callahan

Claudia Antezano

David Lamartin

Renato Henriques

Shakeeb Rahman

2

• Background Information

• Problem Statement

• Capacity, Delays & Demands

• Design Alternatives

• Methodology

• Results

• Sensitivity Analysis

• Future Work

Outline

3

Background Information

The New York Metroplex & Stewart International Airport

4

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

NYC Population Growing; Airport Capacity is Not

• Made up of three airports:

• John F. Kennedy International

• LaGuardia International

• Newark Liberty International

• Forms the busiest, most crowded airport hub in the world.

• Population expected to grow by 2-3 M in the next 20 years.

• Increasing airport capacity is a significant challenge.

0M

5M

10M

15M

20M

25M

1990 2000 2008 - 2030

NYC Population Growth

Po

pul

atio

n in

Mill

ions

Year5 Data from US Census Data


Stewart International AirportTHE UNUSED RESOURCE

• Port Authority of NY/NJ acquired 90 year lease in 2007.

• SWF is located 60 miles (~96km) north of Manhattan.

• Getting airlines to operate out of SWF has proved to be difficult.

• Thus, Stewart lies under utilized, always operating well below its capacity.

Runways 2

Current Operations(passengers/day)

2k

Max Capacity(passengers/day)

54 - 137k

6

Dis

tanc

e ~

96km

Problem Statement

There is a need for a transportation system that is

capable of linking Stewart International Airport to

Manhattan within 1 to 3 years to make Stewart more

attractive to the Manhattan traveling populace.

7


Scope of Study

In

• Alternate modes of

transportation

• Ideal vessel characteristics

• Only transit from gate to gate

• Implementation time of 1-3 years

Out

• NYC airport delays

• Hybrid system

• Security, commute to boarding

terminals, luggage

handling, and parking

• Boarding terminals

8

9

Pick up Point

Capacities, Delays, & Demands

Understanding Capacity, Delays, and Demands.

11

CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS

Airport Capacity

• Airport capacity is defined as the number of movements an airport can handle.

• 1 movement = 1 arrival or departure

• Capacity is dynamic; it is difficult to declare an airport’s capacity.

• However, we can show the probability that an airport will be able to handle a certain capacity given its history.

12 SWF Daily Movement Data from Project HummingBird Research

0!

2!

4!

6!

8!

10!

12!

14!

0! 2! 4! 6! 8! 10! 12! 14! 16! 18! 20! 22!

Ave

rag

e M

ove

me

nts!

Hour of Day!

SWF Daily Movements, 2007!

Declared Capacity! Actual Operations!


Delays

• ρ is the ratio of demand to capacity.

• A system will commonly begin to experience stochastic delays as ρ approaches 1.

• Stochastic delays can become excessive when ρ ≥ 0.8.

• We assume that when ρ ≥ 0.8, it is likely to contribute to stochastic delays.

13


Passenger Demand

• Consumer base is calculated by applying this ρ value to 2007 NYC airport traffic.

• Take the product of the average movements that exceed that 0.8 threshold with the average number of passengers per flight.

• Sum for all airports.

• There are a total of 22,500 passengers each day that exceed the 0.8 capacity in the NYC airports.

14

Airport Movements ρ > 0.8 per day

Average PAX per flight

Total PAXper flight

EWR 81 71 5,751

JFK 109 79 8,611

LGA 138 59 8,142

Total ~22,500

Data from Project HummingBird Research


0!

2!

4!

6!

8!

10!

12!

14!

0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23!Ave

rag

e M

ove

me

nts

ove

r 0.8

Th

resh

old!

Hour of Day!

Excess Flights for NYC Airports!

EWR! JFK! LGA!


NYC Airport Movement Overflow (when ρ ≥ 0.8)

15 Data from Project HummingBird Research

0!

2!

4!

6!

8!

10!

12!

14!

0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23!Ave

rag

e M

ove

me

nts

ove

r 0.8

Th

resh

old!

Hour of Day!

Excess Flights for NYC Airports!

EWR! JFK! LGA!


NYC Airport Passenger Overflow

16

Airport Movements ρ > 0.8 per day

Average Passengers

per flight

Total Passengers

per day

EWR 81 71 5,751

JFK 109 79 8,611

LGA 138 59 8,142

Total ~22,500



17

0!

2!

4!

6!

8!

10!

12!

14!

16!

18!

360! 420! 480! 540! 600! 660! 720! 780! 840! 900! 960! 1020!1080!1140!1200!1260!1320!1380!

Pa

sse

ng

ers

(p

er

min

ute

)!

Minute of Day!

Passenger Demand per Minute of Day!

Design Alternatives

The Sikorsky S-92, Eurocopter Super Puma, Austal Ferry, and the SkyCat-50

18

DESIGN ALTERNATIVES

Vessels

HelicopterSuper Puma

HelicopterSikorsky S-92

High-Speed FerryAustal Ferry

Air VehicleSkyCat-50

Purchase Cost(millions)

$13.7 $18.9 $14 $50

Seating Capacity 20 21 450 200

Transit Time(minutes)

22 20 90 45

19

Methodology

Value Hierarchy, Simulation, & Financial Analysis Financial Analysis Simulation

Value Hierarchy

20

METHODOLOGY

Value Hierarchy

21 Representative Stakeholders

METHODOLOGY

Utility Functions

• Derived utility functions from our value hierarchy:

22

METHODOLOGY

Simulation

Continuous Simulation

23

Results

Vessel Performance, Costs Analysis,& Final Utility Rating

27

28

RESULTS

Ferry Queueing Time per Vessel Added

0!

60!

120!

180!

240!

300!

360!

420!

480!

540!

1! 3! 5! 7! 9! 11! 13! 15! 17! 19! 21! 23! 25!

Ave

rag

e P

asse

ng

er

Se

rvic

e T

ime

(m

inu

tes)!

Number of Vessels!

Service Times for Transportation Alternatives!

Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma!

29

0!

2500!

5000!

7500!

10000!

12500!

15000!

17500!

20000!

22500!

1! 3! 5! 7! 9! 11! 13! 15! 17! 19! 21! 23! 25!

Pa

sse

ng

ers

Se

rvic

ed!

Number of Vessels!

Passenger Throughput "

for Transportation Alternatives!


30

0!

2500!

5000!

7500!

10000!

12500!

15000!

17500!

20000!

22500!

0! 100! 200! 300! 400! 500! 600!

Pa

sse

ng

ers

Se

rvic

ed!

Trip Count!

Passenger Throughput vs. Trip Count!


31

Emissions and Noise

32

Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50

Vessels 16 14 11 15

Frequency(trips / day)

518 520 49 111

Emissions(kilograms / day)

885 1,046 476 159

Noise (SEL dB 200ft)

94 90 89 70


Vessels 16 14 11 15

Fuel $79.2M $77.2M $31.0M $16.4M

Training $0.5M $0.5M $0.6M $0.3M

Crew $2.6M $2.3M $8.5M $6.6M

Maintenance $116.8M $85.7M $6.2M $6.8M

Insurance $7.5M $7.9M $2.7M $22.5M

Yearly Payment $15.2M $18.4M $10.7M $83.4M

Cost / Year $221.8M $192.0M $59.7M $136.0M

Cost / Passenger $53.2 $47.9 $7.8 $17.633

RESULTS

System Costs per Year

RESULTS

Utility Scores

Utility for Transportation AlternativesUtility for Transportation Alternatives

SkyCat-50 0.80

Austal Ferry 0.73

AS332 Super Puma 0.39

Sikorsky S-92 0.3734

0!

0.1!

0.2!

0.3!

0.4!

0.5!

0.6!

0.7!

0.8!

0! 50! 100! 150! 200! 250!

Uti

lity!

Cost/year (millions USD)!

System Utility!


35

Sensitivity Analysis

Effects on Performance & Suitability

36

37

Sensitivity Analysis on Performance

38

Sensitivity Analysis on Flexibility

39

Sensitivity Analysis on Suitability

40

Sensitivity Analysis on Noise

Further Analysis

Parametric Analysis on the effects of Cruising Speed and Capacity on Service Time.

41

42

Super Puma

Sikorsky S-92

SkyCat-50

Ferry

Ideal Vessel

• To keep service time below 60 minutes, an ideal vessel will have:

• Seating range of 50-200 people

• Cruising speed above 105 km/h

43

Future Work

Future Work

44

Future Work

• Hybrid System that uses two or more vessel types

• Further research on vessels (Safety, MTTR and MTBF)

• Terminal Locations

• Secondary transportation systems (shuttle service)

• Weather tolerance

45

Thank you for listening

46

Backup Slides

47

CONCLUSIONS

Vessel Performance

48


Vessels 16 14 11 15

Pax Throughput(per day)

11k 11k 22k 22k

Service + Queue(minutes/passenger)

189 197 100 49

Frequency(trips / year)

181k 182k 17k 39k

Noise (SEL dB 200ft)

94 90 89 70

Emissions(tonnes / year)

310 366 167 56

Cost / Year $221.8 $192.0 $59.7 $136.0

Cost / Passenger $53.2 $47.9 $7.8 $17.6

Cost Estimating Relationships

49





Fuel($/Hour) $1,008 $1,157 $1,203 $562

Crew ($/Vessel) $161,138 $161,138 $777,000 $437,000

Maintenance($/Hour) $1,486 $1,285 $240 $234

DESIGN ALTERNATIVES

Vessels





Fuel($/Hour)

$1,008 $1,157 $1,203 $562

Crew ($/Vessel)

$161,138 $161,138 $777,000 $437,000

Maintenance($/Hour)

$1,486 $1,285 $240 $234

50

55AIRPORT DIAGRAM08157

ARMY

720

74^06’W74^07’W

74^08’W

AIRPORT DIAGRAM

08157

CAUTION: BE ALERT TO RUNWAY

CROSSING CLEARANCES.

READBACK OF ALL RUNWAY HOLDING

INSTRUCTIONS IS REQUIRED.

NEWBURGH, NEW YORK

(SWF)STEWART INTLNEWBURGH/

ARMY

HELIPAD

ELEV

437

GENERAL

AVIATION

RAMP

PASSENGER

TERMINAL

34

0.6% UP

C

F

A0.4% DOWN

9

A-1

FIELD

ELEV

41^30’N

H

MARINE CORPS

HANGAR

091.8^

ELEV

467

FIRE

STATION

342.8^

6004 X 150

162.8^

B

A

A

A-5

H

H

271.8^

11,817 X 150

A-4

G

G

XX

X

16

27

CARGO AREA

A

A-2

A-3

L

491

ATIS 124.575

STEWART TOWER

121.0 254.4

GND CON

121.9VAR 13 .4^

74^05’W

41^31’N

NEWBURGH, NEW YORK

(SWF)STEWART INTLNEWBURGH/

AL-450 (FAA)

H

X

ANG

RESTRICTED

AREA

J

K

M

ELEV

471

JANUARY 2005

ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE

0.0^E

RWY 9-27

S85, D175, ST175, DT350, DDT775

RWY 16-34

S120, D190, ST175, DT350, DDT800

Rwy 9 ldg 8818’

Rwy 27 ldg 9817’

Rwy 16 ldg 5606’

Rwy 34 ldg 5606’

TWR

593

NE

-2, 2

3 O

CT

2008 to

20 N

OV

2008

NE

-2, 23 O

CT

2008 to 2

0 N

OV

2008

FIRE

STATIONGENERAL AVIATION

TERMINAL

NWS

RWY 4-22, 13-31

S80, D170, ST175, DT360

TRANSIENT

PARKING

13

ELEV

13 135.5^

22

ELEV

12

225.4^

7001 X 150

7003 X 150

CONTROL

TOWER

161

R

U

R

AA

AA

AA

AA

P G

G

G

P

BBCC

BB

BB

D

YH

HE

DD

E

DD

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B

D

E

F

G

Q

E

B

R

B

A

G

A

GG A

H

B

J

A

B

L

K

JANUARY 2005


0.0^ E

CAUTION: BE ALERT TO RUNWAY CROSSING CLEARANCES.

READBACK OF ALL RUNWAY HOLDING INSTRUCTIONS IS REQUIRED.

ATIS 127.05

ATIS ARR 125.95

LA GUARDIA TOWER

118.7 263.0

GND CON

121.7 263.0

CLNC DEL

135.2

315.5^

31

ELEV

7

GENERAL AVIATION

MAINTENANCE

& BASE FACILITIES

045.4^

AIR CARRIER MAINTENANCE

& BASE FACILITIES

TERMINAL

BUILDING

AIR CARRIER

MAINTENANCE

& BASE FACILITIES

AA

AA

Y

CY

YY

Y

B

B

ZA

ZAB

A

ZA

M

M

M

N

NA

A

B

B

W

V

M

L

FIELD

ELEV

21

AIRPORT DIAGRAM

AIRPORT DIAGRAMNEW YORK, NEW YORK

NEW YORK, NEW YORK

(LGA)

(LGA)

LA GUARDIA

LA GUARDIA

NEW YORK/

NEW YORK/

AL-289 (FAA)

DD

AC

40^47’N

40^46’N73^52’W

73^53’W

07130

07130

CC

CY

P

T

J

S

FF

FF

Z

Z

V

TRANSIENT

PARKING

AIRCRAFT TAXIING ON TAXIWAY B FOR RUNWAY 4 DEPARTURE,

MAY BE INSTRUCTED TO HOLD AT THE ILS HOLD LINE.

ILS HOLD

CAUTION:

LAHSO

LAHSO

EMAS

324 X 170

4

EMAS

272 X 170

VAR 13 .3^W

NE

-2, 2

3 O

CT

2008 to

20 N

OV

2008

NE

-2, 23 O

CT

2008 to 2

0 N

OV

2008

56

Q

QH

H

QG

QF

PE

13R

PD

QD

PC

PB

QC

QB

PA

P

P

P

P

Q

Q

H

ARFF

N

N

MB

MA

A

NA

BA

NB

NC

AA

A

A

M

B

B

LA

L L

INTERNATIONAL

ARRIVAL

TERMINAL

U.S CUSTOMS

197

CONTROL

TOWER

338

K

KA

A

A

A

B

B

B

H

G

FF

11351 X 150

Y

Y

Y

Y

H

G

Y

YA

FA

F

H

JZ

ELEV 12

K

K

KB

ELEV 12

4L

044.1^

314.1^

31L

4R

FIELD

ELEV

1340^37’N

73^47’W

40^38’N

73^49’W

73^46’W73^45’W

40^39’N

40^40’N

73^48’W

8400 X 200

224.1^

22LELEV

13

31R

044.1^

ELEV

13

E

E

FB

ZA

E E

ELEV

12

C

C

C

C

CH

D

W

CD

CC

CB

CA

ELEV

13

13L

UA

CB

V

V

VA

W

WA

DA

224.1^

H

EAZA

B

E

D

10000 X 150

B

TB

TA

A

T

B

A

S

TT

RR S

SC

SD S

SE

H

SB

SAGENERAL

AVIATION

TERMINAL

14572 X 150

K

KK

K

134.1^

CB

Rwy 13L ldg 9095’

Rwy 13R ldg 11966’

Rwy 22R ldg 8655’

Rwy 31L ldg 11248’

Rwy 31R ldg 8970’

JANUARY 2005


0.0^E

CAUTION: BE ALERT TO

RUNWAY CROSSING CLEARANCES.

READBACK OF ALL RUNWAY

HOLDING INSTRUCTIONS IS REQUIRED.

ELEV

12 134.0^

RWYS 4R-22L, 4L-22R, 13R-31L, 13L-31R

S100, D185, ST175, DT550, DDT823

22R

AUX ARFF

AIRPORT DIAGRAM

AIRPORT DIAGRAM

(JFK)

(JFK)

JOHN F. KENNEDY INTL

JOHN F. KENNEDY INTL

AL-610 (FAA)

FB

314.1^

R

Q

B

U

J

NEW YORK /

NEW YORK, NEW YORK

NEW YORK, NEW YORK

NEW YORK /

A B

B

B

A

CE

W

Z

VV

X X X X

08269

U

A

Z

08269

U

EMAS

392 X 226

VAR 13.3 ^W

ASDE-X survei l lance system in use:

Pi lo ts should operate t ransponders

wi th mode C on a l l twys and rwys.

EMAS

405 X 227

CAT 2

HOLD

ATIS ARR 128.725

NE 117.7

SW 115.4

DEP 115.1

KENNEDY TOWER

Rwys 4R-22L and 13L-31R

119.1 281.55

Rwys 4L-22R and 13R-31L

123.9 281.55

GND CON

121.9 348.6

CLNC DEL

135.05

NE

-2, 2

3 O

CT

2008 to

20 N

OV

2008

NE

-2, 23 O

CT

2008 to 2

0 N

OV

2008

P. A. ADMIN BLDG

ARFF EQUIPMENT

AIRPORT DIAGRAM07242

NEWARK, NEW JERSEY

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL (EWR)

AIRPORT DIAGRAM

07242

ATIS

115.7 134.825

NEWARK TOWER

118.3 257.6

GND CON

121.8

CLNC DEL

118.85

AL-285 (FAA)

Rwy 29 ldg 6502’

Rwy 4L ldg 8460’

Rwy 22R ldg 9560’

Rwy 4R ldg 8810’

Rwy 22L ldg 8207’

GENERAL

AVIATION PARKING

NEWARK, NEW JERSEY

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL

AREA 340

AIRCRAFT PARKING

(EWR)

193

TERMINAL A

TERMINAL B

UPS

CARGO

FEDEX

CARGO

40 42’ N

40 41’ N

74 11’ W 74 10’ W

4R

P

RF

J

G

G

RE

A

B

11000 X 150

RD

RC

EE

E

F

P

D

A

RB

RB

N

C

N

PA

B

B

N

V

V

AA

P

PA

FE

A

RAUP

A

ELEV

11

PC

PB

PD

PB

PD

FD

P

P

PC

PD

PB

PA

B

WILBURAMELIA LINDY

FIELD

ELEV

CONTROL TOWER

BALL PARK

18

PARKING

AREA

15

TERMINAL C

11

UB

ZZ

UU

W

Y

22L22R

R

SS

S

R

R

M

W

Y

Y

Y

YL

L

CC

ZB

P

K

K

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J

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B

B

A

A

A

RJ

RH

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218.9^

ELEV

9

BBT

Q

WW

P

6800 X 150

RL

RM

U

SS

S

Z

RK

DK

DL

DM

H

Q

Z

29

Z

ELEV

11

H

10000 X 150

LAHSO

LAHSO

LAHSO

ELEV

11

ELEV

11

4L

KK

JANUARY 2005


0.0^ E

CAT

2

RG

K

P

P

S

M

038.9^ 038.9^

218.9^

108.0^

288.0^

CAUTION: BE ALERT TO RUNWAY

CROSSING CLEARANCES.

READBACK OF ALL RUNWAY

HOLDING INSTRUCTIONS IS

REQUIRED.

VAR 13 .1^ W

RWYs 4L-22R, 4R-22L

D191, ST175, DT358, DDT873

RWY 11-29

S191, D191, ST175, DT358, TT568, DDT873

NE

-2, 1

7 J

AN

2008 to

14 F

EB

2008

NE

-2, 17 J

AN

2008 to 1

4 F

EB

2008

Primary Secondary Both

EWR 37% 4% 41%

JFK 25% 74% 99%

LGA 31% 10% 41%

SWF 7% 1% 8%

Why Manhattan & Stewart?

58

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breaking through the bottleneck

Documents

airport capacity14

nyc airport trafc

tostochastic delays

demandsunderstanding

average movements

crowded airport hub

airport willbe able

nyc airports