breaking waters: the birth of a new nile state
TRANSCRIPT
Breaking Waters: The Birth of a New Nile State
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STEPS Centre Water SeminarBrighton, 22 February 2011
Ana Elisa CascãoStockholm International Water Institute – SIWI (Sweden)
Center of African Studies – ISCTE (Portugal)
Nile River Basin
THE REGION10 riparian states160 million inhabitantsUnderdeveloped economiesConflict-stricken regionLow levels of regional integration
THE REGION10 riparian states160 million inhabitantsUnderdeveloped economiesConflict-stricken regionLow levels of regional integration
Nile Basin Hydropolitics
• Uneven distribution
• Inequitable utilisation
• Water = Politics• Water = National Security• Water = Sovereignty
• Power asymmetries• Hydro-Hegemony
• Problematic water agreements
• Past: conflicts• Water-Sharing:
political priority
SECURITISATION
HYDRO-SOVEREIGNTY COOPERATION
Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011
Egypt:‘Hydraulic state’ still expandingMonopoly of the Nile watersStronger and more diversified economyMonolithic and stable political systemSupport of international community
Upstream:Agriculture-based economies (rainfed)Weaker but growing economiesShadow of conflicts still presentChanging geopolitics
Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011
Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...
Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...
‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources
‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources
Regional integration:Towards economic
multilaterism
Regional integration:Towards economic
multilaterism
Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic
development
Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic
development
Hydropolitics pre-2011
Official ‘diad’
UpstreamBloc
2010: Cooperation and changing power relations
Trojan Horse of upstreamers
2011:‘Revolutions’ in the making in the Nile Basin
Velvet divorce in Sudan
Popular uprising in Egypt
Southern Sudan: the 11th Nile riparian
Border demarcation (as 1956)
...where the White Nile bends
Southern Sudan: the political process
the post-referendum negotiations
Nile Waters: What is in it for Southern Sudan?
A midstream or an upstream riparian?
Jonglei Canal
When Oil or Water politics mix
Meanwhile.... in northern Sudan• Windown of opportunity for the end of ‘Nile Valley Unit’• Back to the origins: irrigation!
Egypt, revolution and Nile
• No major changes in internal Nile politics, image, discourse• Possible positive change in foreign policy – ‘between equals’• Negative change also possible: a return to hydraulic nationalism
Egypt vs. Upstream: power is relational
• Egypt, the stable hegemon: is now past history
• Upstreamers and the Sudan(s) might take advantage of Egypt’s current weakness to promote a tipping point in the Nile hydropolitics
Crystal Ball
• Southern Sudan: might become the kingmaker in the upstream- downstream Nile hydropolitics
• Northern Sudan: a pure midstream riparian• Egypt: potential for new foreign policy in the long-term• Today: upstreamers might be already taking a shortcut and
speeding change in the Nile Basin
• What occurs when the counter-hegemonic riparians get stronger and the hegemon weaker: the transformation, decline or end of the hegemonic configuration?
Thank [email protected]