brett j. machovina university of denver department of geography 11 june 2008
DESCRIPTION
Dissertation Research Proposal: Susceptibility modeling & mission flight route optimization in a low threat, combat environment. Brett J. Machovina University of Denver Department of Geography 11 June 2008. Proposal Overview. Goals Background Methods Conclusion. Goals. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Dissertation Research Proposal:Dissertation Research Proposal:
Susceptibility modeling & mission flight Susceptibility modeling & mission flight route optimization in a low threat, combat route optimization in a low threat, combat
environmentenvironment
Brett J. MachovinaUniversity of Denver
Department of Geography11 June 2008
Proposal OverviewProposal Overview
GoalsGoals BackgroundBackground MethodsMethods ConclusionConclusion
GoalsGoals
Develop a model to optimize flight routesDevelop a model to optimize flight routes• Hypothesis: Hypothesis: GIS-enabled routes increase mission GIS-enabled routes increase mission
effectiveness by significantly reducing effectiveness by significantly reducing susceptibilitysusceptibility
Test the model results in relation to:Test the model results in relation to:• ExperienceExperience• ExpertiseExpertise• FamiliarityFamiliarity• GenderGender• AgeAge• Terrain variabilityTerrain variability
BackgroundBackground
Survivability and susceptibility Survivability and susceptibility (Ball 2003)(Ball 2003)
• PS = 1 – PKPS = 1 – PK• PK = PH*PKPK = PH*PKHH• PH = PA*PDPH = PA*PDA*PLA*PLD*PID*PIL*PHL*PHII
Flight route optimization modelingFlight route optimization modeling• Operations research & stealthOperations research & stealth• Pekelsma 1988Pekelsma 1988
Geography & mission planning toolsGeography & mission planning tools• PFPS and FalconView PFPS and FalconView (Bailey 2008)(Bailey 2008)
Rotorcraft Noise ModelRotorcraft Noise Model Behavioral geographyBehavioral geography
• Visualization, orientation, relationsVisualization, orientation, relations (Golledge & Stimson 1997(Golledge & Stimson 1997))
BackgroundBackgroundPFPS and FalconViewPFPS and FalconView
BackgroundBackgroundRNMRNM
MethodsMethodsOverviewOverview
Survivability Research
Current Instrument Meteorological
(IMC) Data
Current Wind Data
Extensive and Current
Temperature Data
Optimized Mission PlanningAirframe
Limits
Instructions
GIS Noise Analysis
DetectabilityAnalysis
GIS EM Visibility Analysis
Elevation DataReal-time Threat Data
Real-time Weather Data
Threat (Road) Data Temperature Data
Susceptibility Research
MethodsMethodsStudy AreasStudy Areas
MethodsMethodsStudy AreasStudy Areas
MethodsMethodsModel: Temp., Altitude & Helicopter Performance Model: Temp., Altitude & Helicopter Performance
Power (torque) Available for UH-1N Helicopter
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Altitude, Ft PA
Temp, C
Temp 39 34 27 18 7 -6 -28
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Less than 100% Power
100% Power
DA = PA + (120 TV)DA = density altitudePA = pressure altitude120 = the change in DA for 1 degree Celsius deviation from standard temperatureTV = temperature variation from standard (15 degrees C at sea level) = Outside Air Temperature (OAT) – {15 - [(PA in ft/1000 ft)*2]}
(HATS 1999: 2-17)
MethodsMethodsModel: Airframe LimitsModel: Airframe Limits
MethodsMethodsModel: VisibilityModel: Visibility
MethodsMethodsModel: Combined Discrete CostModel: Combined Discrete Cost
MethodsMethodsModel: Corridor and RouteModel: Corridor and Route
MethodsMethodsValidationValidation
GIS-enabled route vs. human route (n=45)GIS-enabled route vs. human route (n=45)• Total distanceTotal distance• Turn point deviation from optimal routeTurn point deviation from optimal route• % points in optimal corridor% points in optimal corridor• % route in optimal corridor% route in optimal corridor• Difference in visibility footprintDifference in visibility footprint• Difference in audibility footprintDifference in audibility footprint
• Origin and destinationOrigin and destination SinuositySinuosity Directional mean, circular varianceDirectional mean, circular variance
ConclusionConclusion
TheoryTheory
GIS modeling methodsGIS modeling methods
Direct applicationDirect application
TimelineTimeline
Completed courseworkCompleted coursework• Fundamental Geog Perspectives, Geog Research Methods, Adv. Geog Fundamental Geog Perspectives, Geog Research Methods, Adv. Geog
Statistics, Urban Landscapes, Homeland Defense (GSIS), GIS Statistics, Urban Landscapes, Homeland Defense (GSIS), GIS Modeling, Research Identification*, Application Design & Production*Modeling, Research Identification*, Application Design & Production*
20082008• SummerSummer
June: IRB, AFSPCJune: IRB, AFSPC July 7-12: data collectionJuly 7-12: data collection Dissertation ResearchDissertation Research
• FallFall GIS Database Design, International Terrorism (GSIS)GIS Database Design, International Terrorism (GSIS)
20092009• WinterWinter
Spatial Modeling, Ind. Study, 3Spatial Modeling, Ind. Study, 3rdrd World Defense Policy (GSIS) World Defense Policy (GSIS)
* Current course (SP qtr 2008)
TimelineTimeline
20092009• SpringSpring
Geographic Information Analysis, GIS SeminarGeographic Information Analysis, GIS Seminar Comprehensive ExamComprehensive Exam
• SummerSummer Dissertation ResearchDissertation Research
• FallFall Dissertation Research, Special Topics in GISDissertation Research, Special Topics in GIS
20102010• WinterWinter
Dissertation ResearchDissertation Research
• SpringSpring Dissertation DefenseDissertation Defense
MethodsMethods
GIS RouteGIS Route
Human Route
Human Route
Back
MethodsMethodsTurn Point DeviationTurn Point Deviation
GIS Route
Human Route
Human Route
Deviation from closest GIS line segment
Back
MethodsMethods% of turn points in optimal corridor% of turn points in optimal corridor
GIS RouteGIS Route
Human Human
RouteRoute
Example: 60% of human-generated turn points fall within the optimal GIS corridor (dark green)
Back
MethodsMethods% of route in optimal corridor% of route in optimal corridor
Example: 64% of human route segments fall within the optimal GIS corridor (dark green)
GIS RouteGIS Route
Human Human
RouteRoute
Back
MethodsMethodsDDifference in visibility and audibility footprintsifference in visibility and audibility footprints
• Visibility is yes/no
• Audibility will require a threshold
Back
MethodsMethodsOrigin and DestinationOrigin and Destination
GIS RouteGIS Route
Human Human
RouteRoute
Back
135DM and CV?
225
DM and CV?