brexit vote, immigration, and income (bes 2017) · 2019-11-30 · denmark finland france ireland...
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0.2
.4.6
.8Pr
edic
ted
prob
. of h
avin
g vo
ted
Leav
e
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Allow more immigrants? (0 - many fewer .................. 10- many more)
under £15k 15-29k30-59k 60k+Refused to answer
Brexit Vote, Immigration, and Income (BES 2017)
0.2
.4.6
.8Pr
ed. p
roba
bilit
y of
vot
ing
Trum
p
increase a lot increase little same reduce little reduce a lot
Preferred immigration level
under $15k 15-30k30-50k 50-65k65-90k 90-150kover 150k
Immigration Attitudes and Trump Voting (US Whites, ANES)
35%45%
57%68% 73%
50%39%
28%21% 18%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Much looserrestrictions
Slightly looserrestrictions
The currentrestrictions are
about right
Slightly tighterrestrictions
Much tighterrestrictions
'Family over Everything' (18-29s only)
Agree Disagree
YouGov Profiles Data, August 18, 2019 (UK)
21.7%33.9% 36.3% 41.4% 47.1%
59.0% 56.9% 52.7% 47.5%38.7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Much looserrestrictions
Slightly looserrestrictions
The currentrestrictionsare about
right
Slightlytighter
restrictions
Much tighterrestrictions
% A
gree
‘I usually go to same place on holiday‘ & Immigration Attitudes, 18-24s, Upper/Mid Class
AgreeDisagree
YouGov Profiles Data, August 18, 2019 (UK)
12
34
5
Imm
igra
tion
(1=R
educ
e a
lot,
5=St
ay s
ame)
str. disagree disagree neither agree str. agree
View on Death Penalty
lowest income low-med incomemedium income med-high incomehighest income
Views on Death Penalty, Income, and Immigration (BES 2015-18)
R2=.301, N=18,899
Immigration Numbers Affect Salience
Source: Dennison, J. and A. Geddes (2018). "A Rising Tide? The Salience of Immigration and the Rise of Anti‐Immigration Political Parties in Western Europe." The Political Quarterly, 27 November 2018.
Immigration Salience is associated with Populist Right Support
Austria
Belgium
Switzerland
Germany
Denmark
Finland
France
Ireland
Netherlands
Norway
SwedenBritain
IcelandPortugal
Spain
Italy0
1020
3040
50H
ighe
st P
opul
ist R
ight
pol
l or v
ote
(%)
0 2 4 6 8 10Muslim Share of Country in 2030, %, (Pew)
country Fitted values
Populist Higher Water-Mark and Projected Muslim Share, W. Europe
R2=.597
Nate Breznau, Europe’s ageing societies require immigration to survive – and that means anti‐immigration politics is here to stay,’ LSE British Politics and Policy blog, Dec 21, 2017
Chart based on 17 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. Data from OECD, Global Bilateral Migration and ParlGov.
“A White American who identifies with her group and its history supports a proposal to reduce immigration. Her motivation is to maintain her group's share of America's population. Is this person: 1) just acting in her racial self‐interest, which is not racist; 2) being racist; 3) don’t know.”
91.383.9
73.2
58.3
26.1
11.25.5
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0
White Clintonvoter, with
postgrad degree(N=23)
White Clintonvoter, with
degree (N=62)
White Clintonvoter (N=142)
Minority Clintonvoter (N=84)
White Trumpvoter, with
postgrad degree(N=23)
White Trumpvoter (N=197)
White Trumpvoter, less than
high school(N=110)
% sa
ying
'rac
ist'
Racist for white person to want less immigration for ethnocultural reasons?
Source: YouGov‐Birkbeck‐Policy Exchange urvey, Dec 7‐8, 2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2004 2008 2012 2016
Share of White Americans wanting less immigration, by Party Identity
Democrat Republican
Source: 2016 American National Election Study