brexit - welcome to slaughter and may · 2016-11-25 · / brexit there will be no downside to...
TRANSCRIPT
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BrexitNigel Boardman
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The background
Brexit
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£7.1bn / 52 weeks = £137m/weekUK’s contribution = 13bn - £5.9bn (spent in the YK)
=
Brexit
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The result
London
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Younger voters
Brexit
Remain48%
Leave52%
Wales
Northern England
Rural areas
Older voters
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/ Brexit
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
01/06/2016 01/07/2016 01/08/2016 01/09/2016 01/10/2016 01/11/2016
CPI YoY (
%)
1 J
une =
1
Date
FTSE 100 close FTSE Small Cap close GBP:USD CPI
The aftermath
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/ Brexit
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/ Brexit
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/ Brexit
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Key issues
Brexit
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The four pillars
Brexit
People
Goods
Serv
ices
Capit
al
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Government policy
and challenges
Brexit
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Government policy
• Article 50 will be triggered by March
2017
• UK will reject the jurisdiction of the ECJ
• Free movement will cease
• Parliament will vote on the final treaty
• Future of ECHR?
The process we are
about to begin is not
about negotiating all of
our sovereignty away
again.
Theresa May
Brexit
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/ Brexit
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A choice of Brexits
Brexit
Hard Brexit Soft Brexit
UK leaves single market UK remains in single market
Tariffs subject to any free trade treaty No tariffs
No contribution to UK budget UK contributes to EU budget
Increase in non-tariff barriers Many EU laws remain effective in the
UK
No voting or representation in EU
bodies
No voting or representation in EU
bodies
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The ‘Great Repeal Bill’
• Repeal of European
Communities Act 1972
• All EU legislation to
remain in force
• Uncertainties:
• ECJ jurisprudence
• EU regulators
• Part-implemented
EU lawBrexit
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Article 50• Notice starts a two-year negotiation window
• High Court has ruled that Parliament must vote
• Pending appeal to the Supreme Court
• Possible reference to the CJEU
• Service may be delayed beyond
March 2017
Brexit
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EU reactions
Brexit
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EU leaders
• No formal talks until Article 50 is
triggered
• No single market access without the
four freedoms
• Merkel says that free movement comes
before defending German exportsThere must be a threat,
there must be a risk,
there must be a price.
François Hollande
Brexit
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/ Brexit
There will be no downside
to Brexit, only a
considerable upside.
David Davis (Minister for Exiting the EU)
The UK has a golden
opportunity to forge a
new role for ourselves in
the world, one which puts
the British people first.
Liam Fox (International Trade Secretary)
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/ Brexit
The EU must change
fast.
I refuse to imagine a Europe where lorries and
hedge funds are free to cross borders but
citizens are not.
A Spanish flag on the
Rock of Gibraltar is
much closer.
It will be impossible
to give to British
people more rights
than other people
outside the EU.
Most of my colleagues want a fair deal for both
the UK and Europe, but it has to be a deal that
is inferior to membership, so you can't have the
cake and eat it.
Theresa May wants a hard
Brexit? The negotiation will
be hard.
Joseph Muscat (PM of Malta)
François Hollande
Martin Schulz (President of the European Parliament)
Bohuslav Sobotka (Czech PM)
José Margallo (Spanish Foreign Minister) Matteo Renzi
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Conclusions
Brexit
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Brexit prognoses
Brexit
“Brexit means
Brexit and we
will make a
success of it”
“We haven’t found
something good to
say about [the]
Brexit vote.”
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Questions?
Brexit
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/PowerPoint Presentation
© Slaughter and May, 2016
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide legal advice.
For further information, please speak to your usual Slaughter and May contact.
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